Bayesian Geostatistical Design

This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the optimal set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, for a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situations are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing optimal positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of inter-point distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is therefore not the optimal choice.

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

Single beam survey data and links to sea-bottom video files off Helgoland

Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not simply linked to water depth. Moreover, this study shows that the two seafloor parameters collected with RoxAnn are suitable indicators for the discrimination of different densely vegetated seafloor habitats in shallow environments.

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km2 (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.

Prediction and spatial variability of soil dynamic properties in sugar cane fields of São Paulo State Brazil

The objective of this work was to model and diagnose the spatial variability of soil load support capacity (SLSC) in sugar cane crop fields, as well as to evaluate the management impact on São Paulo State soil structure. The investigated variables were: pressure preconsolidation (sigma(p)), apparent cohesion () and internal friction angle (). The conclusions from the results were that the models and spatial dependence maps constitute important tools in the prediction and location of the mechanical internal strength of soils cultivated with sugar cane. They will help future soil management decisions so that soil structure sustainability will not be compromised.

A Spatial and Temporal Prediction Model of Corn Grain Yield as a Function of Soil Attributes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial modelling and prediction on river networks: up model, down model or hybrid?

Preservation of rivers and water resources is crucial in most environmental policies and many efforts are made to assess water quality. Environmental monitoring of large river networks are based on measurement stations. Compared to the total length of river networks, their number is often limited and there is a need to extend environmental variables that are measured locally to the whole river network. The objective of this paper is to propose several relevant geostatistical models for river modeling. These models use river distance and are based on two contrasting assumptions about dependency along a river network. Inference using maximum likelihood, model selection criterion and prediction by kriging are then developed. We illustrate our approach on two variables that differ by their distributional and spatial characteristics: summer water temperature and nitrate concentration. The data come from 141 to 187 monitoring stations in a network on a large river located in the Northeast of France that is more than 5000 km long and includes Meuse and Moselle basins. We first evaluated different spatial models and then gave prediction maps and error variance maps for the whole stream network.

Prediction of spatial orientation and morphology of calcaneonavicular coalitions

BACKGROUND: Calcaneonavicular coalitions (CNC) have been reported to be associated with anatomical aberrations of either the calcaneus and/or navicular bones. These morphological abnormalities may complicate accurate surgical resection. Three-dimensional analysis of spatial orientation and morphological characteristics may help in preoperative planning of resection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixteen feet with a diagnosis of CNC were evaluated by means of 3-D CT modeling. Three angles were defined that were expressed in relation to one reproducible landmark (lateral border of the calcaneus): the dorsoplantar inclination, anteroposterior inclination, and socket angle. The depth and width of the coalitions were measured and calculated to obtain the estimated contact surface. Three-dimensional reconstructions of the calcanei served to evaluate the presence, distortion or absence of the anterior calcaneal facet and presence of a navicular beak. The interrater correlations were assessed in order to obtain values for the accuracy of the measurement methods. Sixteen normal feet were used as controls for comparison of the socket angle; anatomy of the anterior calcaneal facet and navicular beak as well. RESULTS: The dorsoplantar inclination angle averaged 50 degrees (+/-17), the anteroposterior inclination angle 64 degrees (+/-15), and the pathologic socket angle 98 degrees (+/-11). The average contact area was 156 mm(2). Ninety-four percent of all patients in the CNC group revealed a plantar navicular beak. In 50% of those patients the anterior calcaneal facet was replaced by the navicular portion and in 44% the facet was totally missing. In contrast, the socket angle in the control group averaged 77 degrees (+/-18), which was found to be statistically different than the CNC group (p = 0.0004). Only 25% of the patients in the control group had a plantar navicular beak. High, statistically significant interrater correlations were found for all measured angles. CONCLUSION: Computer-aided CT analysis and reconstructions help to determine the spatial orientations of CNC in space and provide useful information in order to anticipate morphological abnormalities of the calcaneus and navicular.

Visualization and prediction of spatial deformation using thin-plate splines in the context of scoliosis

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Visualization and prediction of spatial deformation using thin-plate splines in the context of scoliosis

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Dynamic matrix control on wind-induced vibration of spatial latticed structures [Chinese title = 空间网壳结构风振抑制的动态矩阵预测控制分析]

Ameliorated strategies were put forward to improve the model predictive control in reducing the wind induced vibration of spatial latticed structures. The dynamic matrix control (DMC) predictive method was used and the reference trajectory which is called the decaying functions was suggested for the analysis of spatial latticed structure (SLS) under wind loads. The wind-induced vibration control model of SLS with improved DMC model predictive control was illustrated, then the different feedback strategies were investigated and a typical SLS was taken as example to investigate the reduction of wind-induced vibration. In addition, the robustness and reliability of DMC strategy were discussed by varying the model configurations.