Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Propolis and the immune system: a review

Propolis has been used empirically for centuries and it was always mentioned as an immunomodulatory agent. In recent years, in vitro and in vivo assays provided new information concerning its mechanisms of action, thus a review dealing with propolis and the immune system became imperative. This review compiles data from our laboratory as well as from other researchers, focusing on its chemical composition and botanical sources, the seasonal effect on its composition and biological properties, its immunomodulatory and antitumor properties, considering its effects on antibody production and on different cells of the immune system, involving the innate and adaptive immune response. In vitro and in vivo assays demonstrated the modulatory action of propolis on murine peritoneal macrophages, increasing their microbicidal activity. Its stimulant action on the lytic activity of natural killer cells against tumor cells, and on antibody production was demonstrated. Propolis inhibitory effects on lymphoproliferation may be associated to its anti-inflammatory property. In immunological assays, the best results were observed when propolis was administered over a short-term to animals. Propolis antitumor property and its anticarcinogenic and antimutagenic potential are discussed. Since humans have used propolis for different purposes and propolis-containing products have been marketed, the knowledge of its properties with scientific basis is not only of academic interest but also of those who use propolis as well. This review opens a new perspective on the investigation of propolis biological properties, mainly with respect to the immune system. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Estrutura da comunidade de macroinvertebrados bentônicos de um riacho de serra em Itatinga, São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Zooplankton fluctuations in Jurumirim Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil): a three-year study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sistemas agroflorestais e seus efeitos sobre os atributos químicos em Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo do Cerrado piauiense

This study aimed to quantify the effects of agroforestry systems (AFS), with different periods of adoption, and slash and burn agriculture (SB) on the chemical attributes of an Ultisol in the 'Cerrado' of Piaui State, Brazil. In two distinct climatic seasons (dry and rainy) four systems were studied: AFS with six (AFS6) and thirteen years (AFS13) of adoption, an area under SB and a native forest (NF), as a reference. In the AFS, in all depths, higher reduction in the Al3+ and H+ + Al3+ contents were observed as well as an increase of pH value and contents of nutrients (N, P, Ca, Mg and K) and organic carbon in soil. In the soil under SB, only in superficial layers, the ash deposited on the soil caused an increase in contents of nutrients, except for P, which was higher in all the depths. There was significant seasonal effect in the contents of nutrients, reducing in the rainy season. Agroforestry systems promoted increase in the nutrient contents of an Ultisol and can be considered useful to improve soil chemical quality in areas of 'Cerrado' of Piau State, Brazil.

Artificial reefs and their effects on fish assemblages in a Brazilian reservoir and Tailrace

In this paper, we evaluate the effects of artificial reefs on fish assemblages in a hypereutrophic reservoir and in the lotic zone immediately below dam. Fish diversity was highest in the lotic zone relative to the reservoir. We also found an inverse relationship between diversity and distance from the river margin. Catches near the artificial reefs were more diverse than in control areas. A seasonal effect, possibly caused by variation in temperature, was significant in all comparisons. We argue that, in a scale of local effects, the ecological function of these structures would be similar to refuges.

Rastreabilidade de camarão amazônico proveniente de cultivo e ambiente natural utilizando a técnica de isótopos estáveis

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV

The nematode parasite fauna in three odontocete species: Phocoena phocoena, Lagenorhynchus albirostris, Lagenorhynchus acutus from Northern Scotland and its relationships with diet composition

Food items and nematode parasites were identified from the stomachs of 42 individuals of Phocoena phocoena, 6 of Lagenorhynchus acutus and 8 of L. albirostris stranded off the coastal waters of Northern Scotland between 2004 and 2014. Post-mortem examinations have revealed heavy parasitic worm burdens. Four nematode species complex as Anisakis spp., Contracaeucum spp., Pseudoterronova spp., and Hysterothylacium spp. were recorded. Data on presence of the anisakid species in cetaceans, reported a significative relationship between the presence of Hysterothylacium and the month of host stranding; suggesting a decrease of larval H. aduncum abundance in the period between April and August due to a seasonal effect related to prey availability. Similarly, the parasite burden of the all anisakid genera was related to the year fraction of stranding, and a relationship statistically significant was found just for L. albirostris with an increase between April and October. This finding is explained by a seasonality in occurrence of white-beaked dolphins, with a peak during August, that might be related to movements of shared prey species and competition with other species (Tursiops truncatus). Geographical differences were observed in parasites number of all anisakid species, which was the highest in cetaceans from the East area and lowest in the North coast. The parasites number also increased significantly with the length of the animal and during the year, but with a significant seasonal pattern only for P. phocoena. Regarding diet composition, through a data set consisting of 34 harbour porpoises and 1 Atlantic white-sided dolphins, we found a positive association between parasite number and the cephalopods genus Alloteuthis. This higher level of parasite infection in squid from this area, is probably due to a quantitative distribution of infective forms in squid prey, an abundance of the final host and age or size maturity of squid.

Effects of in situ CO2 enrichment on structural characteristics, photosynthesis, and growth of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica

Seagrass is expected to benefit from increased carbon availability under future ocean acidification. This hypothesis has been little tested by in situ manipulation. To test for ocean acidification effects on seagrass meadows under controlled CO2/pH conditions, we used a Free Ocean Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FOCE) system which allows for the manipulation of pH as continuous offset from ambient. It was deployed in a Posidonia oceanica meadow at 11 m depth in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. It consisted of two benthic enclosures, an experimental and a control unit both 1.7 m**3, and an additional reference plot in the ambient environment (2 m**2) to account for structural artifacts. The meadow was monitored from April to November 2014. The pH of the experimental enclosure was lowered by 0.26 pH units for the second half of the 8-month study. The greatest magnitude of change in P. oceanica leaf biometrics, photosynthesis, and leaf growth accompanied seasonal changes recorded in the environment and values were similar between the two enclosures. Leaf thickness may change in response to lower pH but this requires further testing. Results are congruent with other short-term and natural studies that have investigated the response of P. oceanica over a wide range of pH. They suggest any benefit from ocean acidification, over the next century (at a pH of 7.7 on the total scale), on Posidonia physiology and growth may be minimal and difficult to detect without increased replication or longer experimental duration. The limited stimulation, which did not surpass any enclosure or seasonal effect, casts doubts on speculations that elevated CO2 would confer resistance to thermal stress and increase the buffering capacity of meadows.

Nutritional status of lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in pre- and post-harvest seasons in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to assess seasonal variation in nutritional status and feeding practices among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in two different agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia (lowland zone and midland zone). Food availability and access are strongly affected by seasonality in Ethiopia. However, there are few published data on the effects of seasonal food fluctuations on nutritional status and dietary diversity patterns of mothers and children in rural Ethiopia. A longitudinal study was conducted among 216 mothers in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia during pre and post-harvest seasons. Data were collected on many parameters including anthropometry, blood levels of haemoglobin and ferritin and zinc, urinary iodine levels, questionnaire data regarding demographic and household parameters and health issues, and infant and young child feeding practices, 24 h food recall to determine dietary diversity scores, and household use of iodized salt. Chi-square and multivariable regression models were used to identify independent predictors of nutritional status. A wide variety of results were generated including the following highlights. It was found that 95.4% of children were breastfed, of whom 59.7% were initially breastfed within one hour of birth, 22.2% received pre-lacteal feeds, and 50.9% of children received complementary feedings by 6 months of age. Iron deficiency was found in 44.4% of children and 19.8% of mothers. Low Zinc status was found in 72.2% of children and 67.3% of mothers. Of the study subjects, 52.5% of the children and 19.1% of the mothers were anaemic, and 29.6% of children and 10.5% of mothers had iron deficiency anaemia. Among the mothers with low serum iron status, 81.2% and 56.2% of their children had low serum zinc and iron, respectively. Similarly, among the low serum zinc status mothers, 75.2% and 45.3% of their children had low serum in zinc and iron, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the micronutrient status of the mothers and the children for ferritin, zinc and haemoglobin (P <0.001). There was also statistically significant difference between agro-ecological zones for micronutrient deficiencies among the mothers (p<0.001) but not for their children. The majority (97.6%) of mothers in the lowland zone were deficient in at least one micronutrient biomarker (zinc or ferritin or haemoglobin). Deficiencies in one, two, or all three biomarkers of micronutrient status were observed in 48.1%, 16.7% and 9.9% of mothers and 35.8%, 29.0%, and 23.5%, of children, respectively. Additionally, about 42.6% of mothers had low levels of urinary iodine and 35.2% of lactating mothers had goitre. Total goitre prevalence rates and urinary iodine levels of lactating mothers were not significantly different across agro-ecological zones. Adequately iodised salt was available in 36.6% of households. The prevalence of anaemia increased from post-harvest (21.8%) to pre-harvest seasons (40.9%) among lactating mothers. Increases were from 8.6% to 34.4% in midland and from 34.2% to 46.3% in lowland agro-ecological zones. Fifteen percent of mothers were anaemic during both seasons. Predictors of anaemia were high parity of mother and low dietary diversity. The proportion of stunted and underweight children increased from 39.8% and 27% in post-harvest season to 46.0% and 31.8% in pre-harvest season, respectively. However, wasting in children decreased from 11.6% to 8.5%. Major variations in stunting and underweight were noted in midland compared to lowland agroecological zones. Anthropometric measurements in mothers indicated high levels of undernutrition. The prevalence of undernutrition in mothers (BMI <18.5kg/m2) increased from 41.7 to 54.7% between post- and pre-harvest seasons. The seasonal effect was generally higher in the midland community for all forms of malnutrition. Parity, number of children under five years and regional variation were predictors of low BMI among lactating mothers. There were differences in minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet and dietary diversity in children in pre-harvest and post-harvest seasons and these parameters were poor in both seasons. Dietary diversity among mothers was higher in lowland zone but was poor in both zones across the seasons. In conclusion, malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are very prevalent among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months old in the study areas. There are significant seasonal variations in malnutrition and dietary diversity, in addition to significant differences between lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. These findings suggest a need to design effective preventive public health nutrition programs to address both the mothers’ and children’s needs particularly in the preharvest season.

Canopy management effects on Syrah grapevines under tropical semi-arid conditions.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of shoot topping and leaf removal practices on vegetative vigor, yield and physicochemical characteristics of the 'Syrah' grape in the semi-arid tropical climate conditions of the São Francisco River Valley in the northeast of Brazil. The experiment was conducted over five growing cycles from 2010 to 2012 in a 'Syrah' commercial vineyard in the municipality of Casa Nova, Bahia, Brazil. Treatments consisted of leaf removal once or twice during fruit set or at the beginning of bunch closure, and one or two shoot toppings of the berry when pea-sized or 10 days after berry growth had commenced. Leaf removal and shoot topping did not affect yield, plant vigor components nor the main attributes of fruit quality. In contrast, there was a seasonal effect with higher yield and better balance between production and vigor in grapes produced in the first half of 2012. The Syrah grape quality was favored in cycles in the first half of the year when its ripening phase coincided with the period of mild temperatures.

Seasonal variation of the effect of high-carbohydrate and high-protein diets on the intermediate metabolism of Parastacus brasiliensis (Crustacea, Decapoda, Parastacidae) maintained in the laboratory

The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of a high-carbohydrate diet (HC) and a high-protein diet (HP) on the metabolism of the crayfish Parastacus brasiliensis (Von Martens, 1869), collected in different seasons and maintained in the laboratory for 15 days. Crayfish were collected monthly from January 2002 to January 2004 at São Francisco de Paula, Southern Brazil, in Guarapirá stream. In the laboratory, the animals were kept submerged in aquariums under controlled conditions. They were fed ad libitum, for 15 days with either a HC or HP diet. At the end of this period, haemolymph samples were collected, as were hepatopancreas, gills, and abdominal muscle that were removed for determination of glycogen, free glucose, lipids, and triglycerides. The haemolymph samples were used for determination of glucose, proteins, lipids, and triglycerides. Statistical analysis (ANOVA) revealed significant seasonal differences in biochemical composition in crayfish maintained on HC or HP diets. Independent of the diets offered to the animals and the controlled conditions for 15 days, the indications of seasonality were unchanged. The observed changes seemed to be related to the reproductive period. Moreover, the HC diet increased all energy reserves in adult parastacids, which may aid in reproduction.

Little effect of seasonal constraints on population genetic structure in eusocial paper wasps.

Climate has long been suggested to affect population genetic structures of eusocial insect societies. For instance, Hamilton [Journal of Theoretical Biology7 (1964) 17] discusses whether temperate and tropical eusocial insects may show differences in population-level genetic structure and viscosity, and how this might relate to differences in the degree of synchrony in their life cycles or modes of nest founding. Despite the importance of Hamilton's 1964 papers, this specific idea has not been tested in actual populations of wasps, probably due to the paucity of studies on tropical species. Here, we compare colony and population genetic structures in two species of primitively eusocial paper wasps with contrasting ecologies: the tropical species Polistes canadensis and the temperate species P. dominulus. Our results provide important clarifications of Hamilton's discussion. Specifically, we show that the genetic structures of the temperate and tropical species were very similar, indicating that seasonality does not greatly affect population viscosity or inbreeding. For both species, the high genetic differentiation between nests suggests strong selection at the nest level to live with relatives, whereas low population viscosity and low genetic differentiation between nest aggregations might reflect balancing selection to disperse, avoiding competition with relatives. Overall, our study suggests no prevalence of seasonal constraints of the life cycle in affecting the population genetic structure of eusocial paper wasps. These conclusions are likely to apply also to other primitively eusocial insects, such as halictine bees. They also highlight how selection for a kin structure that promotes altruism can override potential effects of ecology in eusocial insects.