Development of Self-Cleaning Box Culvert Design – Phase II, TR-619, 2013

Culverts are common means to convey flow through the roadway system for small streams. In general, larger flows and road embankment heights entail the use of multibarrel culverts (a.k.a. multi-box) culverts. Box culverts are generally designed to handle events with a 50-year return period, and therefore convey considerably lower flows much of the time. While there are no issues with conveying high flows, many multi-box culverts in Iowa pose a significant problem related to sedimentation. The highly erosive Iowa soils can easily lead to the situation that some of the barrels can silt-in early after their construction, becoming partially filled with sediment in few years. Silting can reduce considerably the capacity of the culvert to handle larger flow events. Phase I of this Iowa Highway Research Board project (TR-545) led to an innovative solution for preventing sedimentation. The solution was comprehensively investigated through laboratory experiments and numerical modeling aimed at screening design alternatives and testing their hydraulic and sediment conveyance performance. Following this study phase, the Technical Advisory Committee suggested to implement the recommended sediment mitigation design to a field site. The site selected for implementation was a 3-box culvert crossing Willow Creek on IA Hwy 1W in Iowa City. The culvert was constructed in 1981 and the first cleanup was needed in 2000. Phase II of the TR 545 entailed the monitoring of the site with and without the selfcleaning sedimentation structure in place (similarly with the study conducted in laboratory). The first monitoring stage (Sept 2010 to December 2012) was aimed at providing a baseline for the operation of the as-designed culvert. In order to support Phase II research, a cleanup of the IA Hwy 1W culvert was conducted in September 2011. Subsequently, a monitoring program was initiated to document the sedimentation produced by individual and multiple storms propagating through the culvert. The first two years of monitoring showed inception of the sedimentation in the first spring following the cleanup. Sedimentation continued to increase throughout the monitoring program following the depositional patterns observed in the laboratory tests and those documented in the pre-cleaning surveys. The second part of Phase II of the study was aimed at monitoring the constructed self-cleaning structure. Since its construction in December 2012, the culvert site was continuously monitored through systematic observations. The evidence garnered in this phase of the study demonstrates the good performance of the self-cleaning structure in mitigating the sediment deposition at culverts. Besides their beneficial role in sediment mitigation, the designed self-cleaning structures maintain a clean and clear area upstream the culvert, keep a healthy flow through the central barrel offering hydraulic and aquatic habitat similar with that in the undisturbed stream reaches upstream and downstream the culvert. It can be concluded that the proposed self-cleaning structural solution “streamlines” the area upstream the culvert in a way that secures the safety of the culvert structure at high flows while producing much less disturbance in the stream behavior compared with the current constructive approaches.

Dendrochronological study of the avalanche path Canal del Roc Roig: first results of the ALUDEX Project in the Pyrenees

Historical data about ancient avalanches are scarce in the Pyrenees. Dendrochronology can provide new data about past avalanches and their return period, but up to now little research has been carried out with this purpose. The Aludex project aims to obtain information about the frequency and extent of extreme avalanches, using a dendrochronological and a nivo-meteorological approach. In this paper, we present the results of a dendrochronological study of the Canal del Roc Roig avalanche path which was affected by two extreme avalanches in February 1996. This first dendrochronological study has permitted us to assess the tree-ring signals due to avalanche events in 53 out of 132 dated trees. The trees presented a variety of responses to the 1996 avalanche events. It is shown that the type of tree-ring signal depends on tree age. The methodology has proved successful in detecting the 1996 and 1972 documented avalanche events, and provided outstanding evidence of undocumented past events such as one in 1930.

Portfolion allokointi Euroopan markkinoilla: toimiala- vai maakohtainen strategia?

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, kumpi on suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta tehokkaampi tapa allokoida portfolio Euroopan alueelle, maa- vai toimialalähestymistapa. Tätä tutkitaan käyttämällä aineistoa vuosilta 1999-2003. Tilanne ennen vuotta 1999 on aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella melko hyvin selvillä, joten tutkimus antaa tuoretta tietoa siitä, miten poikkeuksellinen tuottohistoria vaikuttaa portfolion allokointiin. Aihetta tutkitaan käyttämällä 16 Euroopan alueen maaindeksiä ja kymmentä toimialaindeksiä. Indeksit ovat logaritmisia nettotuottoindeksejä, ja niistä on laskettu korrelaatiot, keskihajonnat sekä tehokkaat rintamat. Indekseistä on myös muodostettu 11 esimerkkiportfoliota, joiden avulla on analysoitu erilaisten portfolioiden suorituskykyä. Tuloksien mukaan maakohtaisella sijoitusstrategialla on etenkin laskevilla markkinoilla mahdollisuus saavuttaa parempi riski/tuotto-suhde, vaikka sijoitettaisiin pelkästään toimialoihin, joita yleisen käsityksen mukaan kannattaa suosia laskevilla markkinoilla. Toimialasijoittaminen taas tarjoaa hieman parempia mahdollisuuksia portfolion hajautukseen. Hajautuksen hyödyt suomalaiselle sijoittajalle tulivat tutkimuksessa selvästi esiin. Toimialasijoittamisesta on suomalaiselle sijoittajalle erityistä hyötyä hajautuksen kannalta, koska näin voidaan valita toimialoja, joiden paino Suomen markkinaindeksissä on vähäinen.

Approche bayésienne de la construction d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés à partir de courbes simulées

Ce mémoire porte sur la simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés dans un contexte bayésien. Dans un premier temps, nous nous intéresserons à des données de précipitations et des fonctions basées sur ces données : la fonction de répartition empirique et la période de retour, une fonction non linéaire de la fonction de répartition. Nous exposerons différentes méthodes déjà connues pour obtenir des intervalles de confiance simultanés sur ces fonctions à l'aide d'une base polynomiale et nous présenterons une méthode de simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés. Nous nous placerons ensuite dans un contexte bayésien en explorant différents modèles de densité a priori. Pour le modèle le plus complexe, nous aurons besoin d'utiliser la simulation Monte-Carlo pour obtenir les intervalles de crédibilité simultanés a posteriori. Finalement, nous utiliserons une base non linéaire faisant appel à la transformation angulaire et aux splines monotones pour obtenir un intervalle de crédibilité simultané valide pour la période de retour.

Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones

The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.

The 20 February 2010 Madeira flash-floods: synoptic analysis and extreme rainfall assessment

This study aims to characterise the rainfall exceptionality and the meteorological context of the 20 February 2010 flash-floods in Madeira (Portugal). Daily and hourly precipitation records from the available rain-gauge station networks are evaluated in order to reconstitute the temporal evolution of the rainstorm, as its geographic incidence, contributing to understand the flash-flood dynamics and the type and spatial distribution of the associated impacts. The exceptionality of the rainstorm is further confirmed by the return period associated with the daily precipitation registered at the two long-term record stations, with 146.9 mm observed in the city of Funchal and 333.8 mm on the mountain top, corresponding to an estimated return period of approximately 290 yr and 90 yr, respectively. Furthermore, the synoptic associated situation responsible for the flash-floods is analysed using different sources of information, e.g., weather charts, reanalysis data, Meteosat images and radiosounding data, with the focus on two main issues: (1) the dynamical conditions that promoted such anomalous humidity availability over the Madeira region on 20 February 2010 and (2) the uplift mechanism that induced deep convection activity.

Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008

In January 2008, central and southern China experienced persistent low temperatures, freezing rain, and snow. The large-scale conditions associated with the occurrence and development of these snowstorms are examined in order to identify the key synoptic controls leading to this event. Three main factors are identified: 1) the persistent blocking high over Siberia, which remained quasi-stationary around 65°E for 3 weeks, led to advection of dry and cold Siberian air down to central and southern China; 2) a strong persistent southwesterly flow associated with the western Pacific subtropical high led to enhanced moisture advection from the Bay of Bengal into central and southern China; and 3) the deep inversion layer in the lower troposphere associated with the extended snow cover over most of central and southern China. The combination of these three factors is likely responsible for the unusual severity of the event, and hence a long return period

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Importantes características de chuva para a conservação do solo e da água no município de São Manuel (SP)

Os modelos matemáticos preditivos da erosão do solo, como a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo (EUPS), são de muita valia no planejamento de uso agrícola da terra. Tal equação, desenvolvida para estimar as perdas médias anuais de solo esperadas em dado local, para determinado sistema de manejo, apresenta como variáveis os fatores erosividade da chuva (R), erodibilidade do solo (K), comprimento do declive (L), grau do declive (S), cobertura e manejo (C) e práticas conservacionistas de suporte (P). Com o objetivo de contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uso do solo local, foi estimado, de forma simplificada, o fator erosividade da chuva (R) da EUPS para o município de São Manuel (SP), para uma série pluviométrica contínua de 49 anos de dados de chuva diária. Além disso, foram também calculados o período de retorno, a freqüência de ocorrência dos índices de erosividade anuais e as quantidades máximas diárias das chuvas necessárias para o dimensionamento mais adequado de canais de terraços agrícolas em nível. O valor calculado do fator R foi de 7.487 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, esperado ocorrer no local, pelo menos, uma vez a cada 2,33 anos, com uma probabilidade de 42,92 %. Observou-se uma concentração de 81,48 % do valor total deste fator no semestre de outubro a março, indicando que, potencialmente, as maiores perdas anuais de solo por erosão são esperadas neste período. Os valores anuais do índice EI30, esperados para os períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos, foram de 7.216, 8.675, 9.641, 10.568, 11.768 e 12.667 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1, respectivamente. Com relação às quantidades máximas de chuva diária, para os mesmos períodos de retorno, os valores foram de 73, 98, 115, 131, 151 e 167 mm, respectivamente.

Integração entre um modelo de simulação hidrológica e Sistema de Informação Geográfica na delimitação de zonas tampão ripárias

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Erosividade da chuva: distribuição e correlação com a precipitação pluviométrica de Teodoro Sampaio (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Núcleo Santa Virgínia (SP): um estudo de vazão de contribuição pelo método de regionalização hidrológica

Seeking the integrated management of water resources and financial compensation especially as a management tool, according to the Law No. 9433 of 1997 and No. 9985 of 2000. This research's main objective is measuring the flow contribution of Núcleo Santa Virginia, the State Park of Serra do Mar, starting from the hydrological regionalization method, developed by the Department of Water and Power. According to the Law 9985 of 2000 Conservation Units have the right to receive in the form of an investment a portion of the amount paid by Power Plants, being passed directly to the Conservation Units, differently from the 9433 Act. By dividing the area of Núcleo Santa Virgínia, in Sub-basins, it was possible to find the minimum flow during seven consecutive days, with a return period of ten years, Q7,10, and steady water flow in 95% of the time, Q95 for the Center and from these data to calculate the monetary value of law under Articles 47 and 48 from Law 9985 of 2000

Metodologia para determinação de volume de detenção em pequenas bacias urbanas: o caso do córrego Wenzel, Rio Claro/SP

With the accelerated urbanization process of Brazil from the 50s, there was a disorderly occupation of spaces and consequent soil sealing. Unlike this growth, the support capacity of urban environments has not evolved in the same way, generating negative environmental impacts to the citizens. Among these impacts are the effects of flooding. In order to minimize the negative effects of extreme precipitation over cities, the government invests in corrective measures, like compensatory techniques on urban drainage, which have as a basic principle the retention and infiltration of the rainfall, dampening the peak flow and runoff. An example of applying these techniques in urban areas are the detention basins, commonly called large pools. The hydraulic design of these structures is dependent of complex data and variables, and projects involving small areas generally use simplified methods for defining the reservoirs volume of the storage (Tassi, 2005). One of these methods is presented in this study, which relates to the percentage of soil sealing to the specific storage volume (m³/ha) in combination by applying the hydrological model of the Rational Method and analyzing regional rainfall and soil occupation over the basin. Within this context, the basin of the Wenzel stream, which is located amidst the urban area of Rio Claro/SP, also presents the problems related to human occupation in its valley. Thus, by the method presented has been adjusted a curve correlating the percentage of impermeable area and the specific volume of a detention basin. For the current situation of Wenzel Basin with 82% of impermeable area, and return period of 10 years, the specific volume is 262.1 m³/ha. The presented method is consistent with the results of other studies in the area, and the expression obtained allows estimating the volume of storage required to match hydrograph pre and post-occupancy. It presents itself as a useful tool in the planning stage of...