Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Oligarchs, political regime changes, and firm valuation

This paper examines the impact of a regime shift on the valuation of politically powerful oligarch firms. Focusing on the Yeltsin-Putin regime shift in Russia, we find that the valuations of outside shareholders claims are significantly higher under the Putin regime than under the Yeltsin regime after controlling for industry and time effects. The findings suggest that the increasing cost of extracting private benefits outweigh the reduction in the value of political connections following the political regime change. The results are also consistent with changes in the risk of state expropriation. Our results show that effects driven by the political regime change complement the traditional view stating that increased ownership concentration improved the performance of Russian oligarch firms.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e.g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov’s regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

All flavours of El Nino have similar early subsurface origins

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, characterized by anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific, affects climate across the globe(1). El Ninos occur every 2-7 years, whereas the El Nino/Southern Oscillation itself varies on decadal timescales in frequency and amplitude, with a different spatial pattern of surface anomalies(2) each time the tropical Pacific undergoes a regime shift. Recent work has shown that Bjerknes feedback(3,4) (coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean through changes in equatorial winds driven by changes in sea surface temperature owing to suppression of equatorial upwelling in the east Pacific) is not necessary(5) for the development of an El Nino. Thus it is unclear what remains constant through regimes and is crucial for producing the anomalies recognized as El Nino. Here we show that the subsurface process of discharging warm waters always begins in the boreal summer/autumn of the year before the event (up to 18 months before the peak) independent of regimes, identifying the discharge process as fundamental to the El Nino onset. It is therefore imperative that models capture this process accurately to further our theoretical understanding, improve forecasts and predict how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation may respond to climate change.

PICES Press, Vol. 12, No. 2, July 2004

The future of PICES [pdf, 1.7 MB] Paris by day - Symposium on "Quantative ecosystem indicators in fisheries management" [pdf, 0.2 MB] The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events [pdf, 0.4 MB] The state of the western North Pacific in the second half of 2003 [pdf, 0.7 MB] The state of the eastern North Pacific entering spring 2004 [pdf, 0.4 MB] PICES-IFEP Workshop on "In-situ iron enrichment experiments in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific" [pdf, 1.4 MB] Canadian SOLAS/PICES-IFEP session on "Response of the upper ocean to meso-scale iron enrichment" [pdf, 0.3 MB] Fisheries and ecosystem responses to recent regime shifts [pdf, 0.8 MB] PICES Interns [pdf, 0.8 MB] Did a regime shift occur in 1998 around Japan?- Highlights from a symposium addressing this question [pdf, 0.8 MB] The Global Ocean Carbon Observing System - Connecting national programs and regional networks [pdf, 1.7 MB] The North Pacific Ecosystem Metadatabase [pdf, 1.2 MB] International GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and Sub-Arctic marine ecosystems" [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES Calendar [pdf, 0.2 MB] PICES/GLOBEC Symposium on "Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North pacific: A basin-scale synthesis" [pdf, 0.2 MB]

PICES Press, Vol. 11, No. 2, July 2003

Cover [pdf, 1.2 Mb] PICES Science Board and Governing Council hold their first joint meeting [pp. 1-3] [pdf, 0.2 Mb] 3rd International Zooplankton Production Symposium [pp. 4-7] [pdf, 0.6 Mb] The state of the eastern North Pacific entering spring 2003 [pp. 8-9] [pdf, 0.4 Mb] The state of the western North Pacific in 2002 [pp. 10-13] [pdf, 0.6 Mb] The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events [pp. 14-15] [pdf. 0.7 Mb] Patricia Livingston [pp. 16-19] [pdf. 0.5 Mb] Recent changes in the abundance of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) off the Pacific Northwest, tracking a regime shift? [pp. 20-21] [pdf. 0.6 Mb] Developing new scientific programs in PICES [pp. 22-26] [pdf. 0.2 Mb] Report of the Yokohama 2003 MODEL Task Team Workshop to develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes [pp. 27-29] [pdf. 0.5 Mb] 3rd PICES Workshop on the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent Areas [pp.30-31] [pdf. 0.4 Mb] Recent oceanographic and marine environmental studies at FERHRI [pp.32-34] [pdf. 0.4 Mb] Symposium Announcement [p. 35] [pdf. 0.3 Mb] PICES announcements [p. 36] [pdf. 0.3 Mb]

Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): It is increasingly apparent that a major reorganization of the Northeast Pacific biota transpired following a climatic "regime shift" in the mid-1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the northeastern Pacific Ocean.