On Qualitative Probabilities for Legal Reasoning about Evidence

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

Reasoning about Requirements Evolution Using Clustered Belief Revision

During the development of system requirements, software system specifications are often inconsistent. Inconsistencies may arise for different reasons, for example, when multiple conflicting viewpoints are embodied in the specification, or when the specification itself is at a transient stage of evolution. These inconsistencies cannot always be resolved immediately. As a result, we argue that a formal framework for the analysis of evolving specifications should be able to tolerate inconsistency by allowing reasoning in the presence of inconsistency without trivialisation, and circumvent inconsistency by enabling impact analyses of potential changes to be carried out. This paper shows how clustered belief revision can help in this process. Clustered belief revision allows for the grouping of requirements with similar functionality into clusters and the assignment of priorities between them. By analysing the result of a cluster, an engineer can either choose to rectify problems in the specification or to postpone the changes until more information becomes available.

Reasoning about shadows in a mobile robot environment

This paper describes a logic-based formalism for qualitative spatial reasoning with cast shadows (Perceptual Qualitative Relations on Shadows, or PQRS) and presents results of a mobile robot qualitative self-localisation experiment using this formalism. Shadow detection was accomplished by mapping the images from the robot’s monocular colour camera into a HSV colour space and then thresholding on the V dimension. We present results of selflocalisation using two methods for obtaining the threshold automatically: in one method the images are segmented according to their grey-scale histograms, in the other, the threshold is set according to a prediction about the robot’s location, based upon a qualitative spatial reasoning theory about shadows. This theory-driven threshold search and the qualitative self-localisation procedure are the main contributions of the present research. To the best of our knowledge this is the first work that uses qualitative spatial representations both to perform robot self-localisation and to calibrate a robot’s interpretation of its perceptual input.

Reasoning about timeouts

In real-time programming a timeout mechanism allows exceptional behaviour, such as a lack of response, to be handled effectively, while not overly affecting the programming for the normal case. For. example, in a pump controller if the water level has gone below the minimum level and the pump is on and hence pumping in more water, then the water level should rise above the minimum level within a specified time. If not, there is a fault in the system and it should be shut down and an alarm raised. Such a situation can be handled by normal case code that determines when the level has risen above the minimum, plus a timeout case handling the situation when the specified time to reach the minimum has passed. In this paper we introduce a timeout mechanism, give it a formal definition in terms of more basic real-time commands, develop a refinement law for introducing a timeout clause to implement a specification, and give an example of using the law to introduce a timeout. The framework used is a machine-independent real-time programming language, which makes use of a deadline command to represent timing constraints in a machine-independent fashion. This allows a more abstract approach to handling timeouts.

Reasoning about deadlines in concurrent real-time programs

We propose a method for the timing analysis of concurrent real-time programs with hard deadlines. We divide the analysis into a machine-independent and a machine-dependent task. The latter takes into account the execution times of the program on a particular machine. Therefore, our goal is to make the machine-dependent phase of the analysis as simple as possible. We succeed in the sense that the machine-dependent phase remains the same as in the analysis of sequential programs. We shift the complexity introduced by concurrency completely to the machine-independent phase.

Temporal reasoning about action and change

Abstract not available

A discrete formalism for reasoning about action and change

This paper presents a discrete formalism for temporal reasoning about actions and change, which enjoys an explicit representation of time and action/event occurrences. The formalism allows the expression of truth values for given fluents over various times including nondecomposable points/moments and decomposable intervals. Two major problems which beset most existing interval-based theories of action and change, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and the intermingling problem, are absent from this new formalism. The dividing instant problem is overcome by excluding the concepts of ending points of intervals, and the intermingling problem is bypassed by means of characterising the fundamental time structure as a well-ordered discrete set of non-decomposable times (points and moments), from which decomposable intervals are constructed. A comprehensive characterisation about the relationship between the negation of fluents and the negation of involved sentences is formally provided. The formalism provides a flexible expression of temporal relationships between effects and their causal events, including delayed effects of events which remains a problematic question in most existing theories about action and change.

Reasoning about change over time: Actions, events and their effects

This paper presents a new formalism for reasoning about change over time. The formalism derives a clean separation between the notion of states and situations. It allows more flexible temporal causal relationships than do other formalisms for reasoning about causal change, such as the situation calculus and the event calculus. It includes effects that start during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and which end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. A formal distinction between actions, action-types and events is proposed, which allows the expression of common-sense causal laws at high level. It is shown how these laws can be used to deduce state change over time at low level, when events occur under certain preconditions hold. Two problems that beset most interval-based temporal systems, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and intermingling problem, are absent from the formalism.

Children’s reasoning about other’s intentions: False-belief and counterfactual conditional inferences

Dados suplementares associados com o artigo e epígrafe estão disponíveis em: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogdev.2016.08.007

Learning about life and death in early childhood

Inagaki and Hatano (2002) have argued that young children initially understand biological phenomena in terms of vitalism, a mode of construal in which life or life-force is the central causal-explanatory concept. This study investigated the development of vitalistic reasoning in young children's concepts of life, the human body and death. Sixty preschool children between the ages of 3 years, 7 months and 5 years, 11 months participated. All children were initially given structured interviews to assess their knowledge of (1) human body function and (2) death. From this sample 40 children in the Training group were taught about the human body and how it functions to maintain life. The Control group (n = 20) received no training. All 60 children were subsequently reassessed on their knowledge of human body function and death. Results from the initial interviews indicated that young children who spontaneously appealed to vitalistic concepts in reasoning about human body functioning were also more sophisticated in their understanding of death. Results from the posttraining interviews showed that children readily learned to adopt a vitalistic approach to human body functioning, and that this learning coincided with significant development in their understanding of human body function, and of death. The overall pattern of results supports the claim that the acquisition of a vitalistic causal-explanatory framework serves to structure children's concepts and facilitates learning in the domain of biology. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Approximate Relational Reasoning for Probabilistic Programs

La seguridad verificada es una metodología para demostrar propiedades de seguridad de los sistemas informáticos que se destaca por las altas garantías de corrección que provee. Los sistemas informáticos se modelan como programas probabilísticos y para probar que verifican una determinada propiedad de seguridad se utilizan técnicas rigurosas basadas en modelos matemáticos de los programas. En particular, la seguridad verificada promueve el uso de demostradores de teoremas interactivos o automáticos para construir demostraciones completamente formales cuya corrección es certificada mecánicamente (por ordenador). La seguridad verificada demostró ser una técnica muy efectiva para razonar sobre diversas nociones de seguridad en el área de criptografía. Sin embargo, no ha podido cubrir un importante conjunto de nociones de seguridad “aproximada”. La característica distintiva de estas nociones de seguridad es que se expresan como una condición de “similitud” entre las distribuciones de salida de dos programas probabilísticos y esta similitud se cuantifica usando alguna noción de distancia entre distribuciones de probabilidad. Este conjunto incluye destacadas nociones de seguridad de diversas áreas como la minería de datos privados, el análisis de flujo de información y la criptografía. Ejemplos representativos de estas nociones de seguridad son la indiferenciabilidad, que permite reemplazar un componente idealizado de un sistema por una implementación concreta (sin alterar significativamente sus propiedades de seguridad), o la privacidad diferencial, una noción de privacidad que ha recibido mucha atención en los últimos años y tiene como objetivo evitar la publicación datos confidenciales en la minería de datos. La falta de técnicas rigurosas que permitan verificar formalmente este tipo de propiedades constituye un notable problema abierto que tiene que ser abordado. En esta tesis introducimos varias lógicas de programa quantitativas para razonar sobre esta clase de propiedades de seguridad. Nuestra principal contribución teórica es una versión quantitativa de una lógica de Hoare relacional para programas probabilísticos. Las pruebas de correción de estas lógicas son completamente formalizadas en el asistente de pruebas Coq. Desarrollamos, además, una herramienta para razonar sobre propiedades de programas a través de estas lógicas extendiendo CertiCrypt, un framework para verificar pruebas de criptografía en Coq. Confirmamos la efectividad y aplicabilidad de nuestra metodología construyendo pruebas certificadas por ordendor de varios sistemas cuyo análisis estaba fuera del alcance de la seguridad verificada. Esto incluye, entre otros, una meta-construcción para diseñar funciones de hash “seguras” sobre curvas elípticas y algoritmos diferencialmente privados para varios problemas de optimización combinatoria de la literatura reciente. ABSTRACT The verified security methodology is an emerging approach to build high assurance proofs about security properties of computer systems. Computer systems are modeled as probabilistic programs and one relies on rigorous program semantics techniques to prove that they comply with a given security goal. In particular, it advocates the use of interactive theorem provers or automated provers to build fully formal machine-checked versions of these security proofs. The verified security methodology has proved successful in modeling and reasoning about several standard security notions in the area of cryptography. However, it has fallen short of covering an important class of approximate, quantitative security notions. The distinguishing characteristic of this class of security notions is that they are stated as a “similarity” condition between the output distributions of two probabilistic programs, and this similarity is quantified using some notion of distance between probability distributions. This class comprises prominent security notions from multiple areas such as private data analysis, information flow analysis and cryptography. These include, for instance, indifferentiability, which enables securely replacing an idealized component of system with a concrete implementation, and differential privacy, a notion of privacy-preserving data mining that has received a great deal of attention in the last few years. The lack of rigorous techniques for verifying these properties is thus an important problem that needs to be addressed. In this dissertation we introduce several quantitative program logics to reason about this class of security notions. Our main theoretical contribution is, in particular, a quantitative variant of a full-fledged relational Hoare logic for probabilistic programs. The soundness of these logics is fully formalized in the Coq proof-assistant and tool support is also available through an extension of CertiCrypt, a framework to verify cryptographic proofs in Coq. We validate the applicability of our approach by building fully machine-checked proofs for several systems that were out of the reach of the verified security methodology. These comprise, among others, a construction to build “safe” hash functions into elliptic curves and differentially private algorithms for several combinatorial optimization problems from the recent literature.

Probabilistic Action System Trace Semantics

Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.