The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)’s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by comparing this out-of-sample results with the one obtained performing an in-sample exercise, where the return-based SDF captures sources of risk of a representative set of developed and emerging economies government bonds. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward and the equity-premium puzzles: a straightforward test of whether they are two symptoms of the same illness

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

A note on the forward and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

The forward and the equity premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

The Forward Premium Puzzle (FPP) is how the empirical observation of a negative relation between future changes in the spot rates and the forward premium is known. Modeling this forward bias as a risk premium and under weak assumptions on the behavior of the pricing kernel, we characterize the potential bias that is present in the regressions where the FPP is observed and we identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that the pricing kernel has to satisfy to account for the predictability of exchange rate movements. Next, we estimate the pricing kernel applying two methods: i) one, du.e to Araújo et aI. (2005), that exploits the fact that the pricing kernel is a serial correlation common feature of asset prices, and ii) a traditional principal component analysis used as a procedure 1;0 generate a statistical factor modeI. Then, using on the sample and out of the sample exercises, we are able to show that the same kernel that explains the Equity Premi um Puzzle (EPP) accounts for the FPP in all our data sets. This suggests that the quest for an economic mo deI that generates a pricing kernel which solves the EPP may double its prize by simultaneously accounting for the FPP.

Shell beds as paleoecological puzzles: A case study from the Upper Permian of the Parana Basin, Brazil

Microstratigraphic, sedimentological, and taphonomic features of the Ferraz Shell Bed, from the Upper Permian (Kazanian-Tatarian?) Corumbatai Formation of Rio Claro Region (the Parana Basin, Brazil), indicate that the bed consists of four distinct microstratigraphic units. They include, from bottom to top, a lag concentration (Unit 1), a partly reworked storm deposit (Unit 2), a rapidly deposited sandstone unit with three thin horizons recording episodes of reworking (Unit 3), and a shell-rich horizon generated by reworking/winnowing that was subsequently buried by storm-induced obrution deposit (Unit 4). The bioclasts of the Ferraz Shell Bed represent exclusively bivalve mollusks. Pinzonella illusa and Terraia aequilateralis are the dominant species. Taphonomic analysis indicates that mollusks are heavily time-averaged (except for some parts of Unit 3). Moreover, different species are time-averaged to a different degree (disharmonious time-averaging). The units differ statistically from one another in their taxonomic and ecological composition, in their taphonomic pattern, and in the size-frequency distributions of the two most common species. Other Permian shell beds of the Parana Basin are similar to the Ferraz Shell Bed in their faunal composition (they typically contain similar sets of 5 to 10 bivalve species) and in their taphonomic, sedimentologic, and microstratigraphic characteristics. However, rare shell beds that include 2-3 species only and are dominated by articulated shells preserved in life position also occur. Diversity levels in the Permian benthic associations of the Parana Basin were very low, with the point diversity of 2-3 species and with the within-habitat and basin-wide (alpha and gamma) diversities of 10 species, at most. The Parana Basin benthic communities may have thus been analogous to low-diversity bivalve-dominated associations of the present-day Baltic Sea. The 'Ferraz-type' shell beds of the Parana Basin represent genetically complex and highly heterogeneous sources of paleontological data. They are cumulative records of spectra of benthic ecosystems time-averaged over long periods of time (10(2)-10(4) years judging from actualistic research). Detailed biostratinomic reconstructions of shell beds can not only offer useful insights into their depositional histories, but may also allow paleoecologists to optimize their sampling designs, and consequently, refine paleoecological and paleoenvironmental interpretations.

From inflation to dark energy through a dynamical Λ: an attempt at alleviating fundamental cosmic puzzles

After decades of successful hot big-bang paradigm, cosmology still lacks a framework in which the early inflationary phase of the universe smoothly matches the radiation epoch and evolves to the present “quasi” de Sitter spacetime. No less intriguing is that the current value of the effective vacuum energy density is vastly smaller than the value that triggered inflation. In this paper, we propose a new class of cosmologies capable of overcoming, or highly alleviating, some of these acute cosmic puzzles. Powered by a decaying vacuum energy density, the spacetime emerges from a pure nonsingular de Sitter vacuum stage, “gracefully” exits from inflation to a radiation phase followed by dark matter and vacuum regimes, and, finally, evolves to a late-time de Sitter phase.

Solutions to the Chronological Puzzles in Book 1 of the Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa

The chronological inconsistency in the first book of Matthew of Edessa's Chronicle is well-known. Some of his are dates accurate to the day, while others err by up to 50 years, with no immediately apparent pattern of error. In this talk I will examine some of these chronological puzzles, by untangling the five main themes that run through the book. By demonstrating how these chronological errors may have arisen, and why certain events in the chronicle are dated much more accurately than others, light may be shed on the sources and methodologies that Matthew used to compose his chronicle.

Number puzzles before the log fire, being those given in the Number stories of long ago.

Mode of access: Internet.

The psychology of efficiency; an experimental study of the processes involved in the solution of mechanical puzzles and in the acquisition of skill in their manipulation,

Vita.

Enhancing Library Instruction with Crossword Puzzles in Kinesiology Classes

The poster was presented at the 2016 Tri-Chapter Meeting (MACMLA, NY-NJ and PHIL Chapters), The 3Ls - Librarians, Leadership and Learning on September 25, 2016 in Philadelphia, PA (http://macmla.libguides.com/tri-chapter2016-posters).

Programación de videojuegos de puzzles en 2D usando Unity: tutorial y ejemplo práctico del juego.

Unity3d es un motor gráfico para la implementación de videojuegos creado por Unity3d Technologies que tiene el honor de ser una de las principales herramientas que propició el auge de los estudios independientes. Pese a estar enfocado al desarrollo de videojuegos en 3D, los desarrolladores lograban crear contenido en 2D a base de manipulaciones como la cámara y de utilizar herramientas no nativas. Afortunadamente, a partir de la versión 4.3 Unity3d integra herramientas nativas que facilitan esta tarea. Este proyecto consiste en la creación de un tutorial sobre la implementación de un videojuego del género puzles en 2D y enfocado a plataformas móviles, empleando para ello Unity3d y concretamente las nuevas herramientas nativas para 2D. La implementación de un videojuego es una tarea muy complicada y extensa, es por ello que en el tutorial se va a tratar la fase de diseño del videojuego y a nivel de implementación centrarse en dichas herramientas para el 2D, mostrando al final una versión jugable del videojuego implementado. Por otra parte, al ser numerosas las herramientas, es imposible tratar cada una de las herramientas aunque se intentará abarcar lo máximo posible y mencionar las que no se incluyan dentro de la implementación del videojuego. El resultado generado de este proyecto puede constituir una referencia para otras personas interesadas en aprender cómo usar Unity3d para programar videojuegos en 2D, lo cual les allanará seguramente el camino y les suavizará la curva de aprendizaje.