Are CGE models still useful for economic policymaking?

Incluye Bibliografía

The biodiesel market and public policy: a comparative analysis of Argentina and Brazil

Includes bibliography

Mutual perceptions of Asia and the EU/Europe. Media, elite and public opinion in Singapore and Germany. EU Centre in Singapore Working Paper No. 12, December 2012

In an increasingly interlinked and interdependent world, Europe and Asia are key players. Free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the ones the EU concluded with South Korea and Singapore, are indicative of strong mutual economic interests. It is therefore timely to take a closer look at the mutual perceptions of Asians and Europeans – not only at the governmental and policymaking levels, but also in terms of public opinion and the media. Drawing on data from an extensive research project led by the National Centre for Research on Europe (NCRE), New Zealand, the empirical study in this paper assesses the mutual perceptions of the EU/Europe and Asia, and their respective actors, focusing on two countries – Germany and Singapore. It seeks to do so through an analysis of the data collected from print and broadcast media, interviews with media practitioners, and the findings from public opinion surveys.

Firm-level productivity growth in Northern Ireland:the impact of exporting, innovation and public financial assistance

Motivated by the historically poor productivity performance of Northern Ireland firms and the longstanding productivity gap with the UK, the aim of this thesis is to examine, through the use of firm-level data, how exporting, innovation and public financial assistance impact on firm productivity growth. These particular activities are investigated due to the continued policy focus on their link to productivity growth and the theoretical claims of a direct positive relationship. In order to undertake these analyses a newly constructed dataset is used which links together cross-sectional and longitudinal data over the 1998-2008 period from the Annual Business Survey, the Manufacturing Sales and Export Survey; the Community Innovation Survey and Invest NI Selective Financial Assistance (SFA) payment data. Econometric methodologies are employed to estimate each of the relationships with regards to productivity growth, making use in particular of Heckman selection techniques and propensity score matching to take account of critical issues of endogeneity and selection bias. The results show that more productive firms self-select into exporting but there is no resulting productivity effect from starting to export; contesting the argument for learning-by-exporting. Product innovation is also found to have no impact on productivity growth over a four year period but there is evidence of a negative process innovation impact, likely to reflect temporary learning effects. Finally SFA assistance, including the amount of the payment, is found to have no short term impact on productivity growth suggesting substantial deadweight effects and/or targeting of inefficient firms. The results provide partial evidence as to why Northern Ireland has failed to narrow the productivity gap with the rest of the UK. The analyses further highlight the need for access to comprehensive firm-level data for research purposes, not least to underpin robust evidence-based policymaking.

Turkish Security Policymaking on Nuclear Issues: Conceptualizing Advanced Cooperative Security Strategies

Turkey is a non-nuclear member of a nuclear alliance in a region where nuclear proliferation is of particular concern. As the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member that has a border with the Middle East, Turkish officials argue that Turkey cannot solely rely on NATO guarantees in addressing the regional security challenges. However, Turkey has not been able to formulate a security policy that reconciles its quest for independence, its NATO membership, the bilateral relationship with the United States, and regional engagement in the Middle East. This dissertation assesses the strategic implications of Turkey’s perceptions of the U.S./NATO nuclear and conventional deterrence on nuclear issues. It explores three case studies by the process tracing of Turkish policymakers’ nuclear-related decisions on U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, national air and missile defense, and Iran’s nuclear program. The study finds that the principles of Turkish security policymaking do not incorporate a fundamentally different reasoning on nuclear issues than conventional deterrence. Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems do not have a defining role in Turkish security and defense strategy. The decisions are mainly guided by non-nuclear considerations such as Alliance politics, modernization of the domestic defense industry, and regional influence. The dissertation argues that Turkey could formulate more effective and less risky security policies on nuclear issues by emphasizing the cooperative security approaches within the NATO Alliance over confrontational measures. The findings of this dissertation reveal that a major transformation of Turkish security policymaking is required to end the crisis of confidence with NATO, redefinition of the strategic partnership with the US, and a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. The dissertation argues that Turkey should promote proactive measures to reduce, contain, and counter risks before they develop into real threats, as well as contribute to developing consensual confidence-building measures to reduce uncertainty.

An enforced cooperation : understanding scientific assessments in adversarial polities through Quebec shale gas policymaking, 2010-2014

Les biotechnologies, le réchauffement climatique, les ressources naturelles et la gestion des écosystèmes sont tous représentatifs de la “nouvelle politique de la nature” (Hajer 2003), un terme englobant les enjeux marqués par une grande incertitude scientifique et un encadrement réglementaire inadapté aux nouvelles réalités, suscitant de fait un conflit politique hors du commun. Dans l'espoir de diminuer ces tensions et de générer un savoir consensuel, de nombreux gouvernements se tournent vers des institutions scientifiques ad hoc pour documenter l'élaboration des politiques et répondre aux préoccupations des partie-prenantes. Mais ces évaluations scientifiques permettent-elles réellement de créer une compréhension commune partagée par ces acteurs politiques polarisés? Alors que l'on pourrait croire que celles-ci génèrent un climat d'apprentissage collectif rassembleur, un environnement politique conflictuel rend l'apprentissage entre opposant extrêmement improbable. Ainsi, cette recherche documente le potentiel conciliateur des évaluation scientifique en utilisant le cas des gaz de schiste québécois (2010-2014). Ce faisant, elle mobilise la littérature sur les dimensions politiques du savoir et de la science afin de conceptualiser le rôle des évaluations scientifiques au sein d'une théorie de la médiation scientifique (scientific brokerage). Une analyse de réseau (SNA) des 5751 références contenues dans les documents déposés par 268 organisations participant aux consultations publiques de 2010 et 2014 constitue le corps de la démonstration empirique. Précisément, il y est démontré comment un médiateur scientifique peut rediriger le flux d'information afin de contrer l'incompatibilité entre apprentissage collectif et conflit politique. L'argument mobilise les mécanismes cognitifs traditionnellement présents dans la théorie des médiateurs de politique (policy broker), mais introduit aussi les jeux de pouvoir fondamentaux à la circulation de la connaissance entre acteurs politiques.

An enforced cooperation : understanding scientific assessments in adversarial polities through Quebec shale gas policymaking, 2010-2014

Les biotechnologies, le réchauffement climatique, les ressources naturelles et la gestion des écosystèmes sont tous représentatifs de la “nouvelle politique de la nature” (Hajer 2003), un terme englobant les enjeux marqués par une grande incertitude scientifique et un encadrement réglementaire inadapté aux nouvelles réalités, suscitant de fait un conflit politique hors du commun. Dans l'espoir de diminuer ces tensions et de générer un savoir consensuel, de nombreux gouvernements se tournent vers des institutions scientifiques ad hoc pour documenter l'élaboration des politiques et répondre aux préoccupations des partie-prenantes. Mais ces évaluations scientifiques permettent-elles réellement de créer une compréhension commune partagée par ces acteurs politiques polarisés? Alors que l'on pourrait croire que celles-ci génèrent un climat d'apprentissage collectif rassembleur, un environnement politique conflictuel rend l'apprentissage entre opposant extrêmement improbable. Ainsi, cette recherche documente le potentiel conciliateur des évaluation scientifique en utilisant le cas des gaz de schiste québécois (2010-2014). Ce faisant, elle mobilise la littérature sur les dimensions politiques du savoir et de la science afin de conceptualiser le rôle des évaluations scientifiques au sein d'une théorie de la médiation scientifique (scientific brokerage). Une analyse de réseau (SNA) des 5751 références contenues dans les documents déposés par 268 organisations participant aux consultations publiques de 2010 et 2014 constitue le corps de la démonstration empirique. Précisément, il y est démontré comment un médiateur scientifique peut rediriger le flux d'information afin de contrer l'incompatibilité entre apprentissage collectif et conflit politique. L'argument mobilise les mécanismes cognitifs traditionnellement présents dans la théorie des médiateurs de politique (policy broker), mais introduit aussi les jeux de pouvoir fondamentaux à la circulation de la connaissance entre acteurs politiques.

“Who Gets Public Support to Innovation? Evidence from the Portuguese Alentejo Region”

The aim of the study is to assess which factors influence the policymaking decisions to financially support an innovative investment project. Based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System in the Alentejo region, we estimated an econometric model based on firms’ and application’ characteristics, controlling for macroeconomic environment. The results indicate that the selection process is more focused on the expected project impact than on firms’ past performance. Furthermore, we found that government preference for promoting employment and exportation are shown to be higher than the impact on firm productivity.