Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Resolving the conflicts of sustainable world heritage landscapes in cities : fully open or limited access for visitors?

World Heritage Landscapes (WHLs) are receiving increased attention from researchers, urban planners, managers, and policy makers and many heritage values and resources are becoming irreversibly lost. This phenomenon is especially prominent for WHLs located in cities, where greater development opportunities are involved. Decision making for sustainable urban landscape planning, conservation and management of WHLs often takes place from an economic perspective, especially in developing countries. This, together with the uncertain source of funding to cover WHL operating and maintenance costs, has resulted in many urban managers seeking private sector funding either in the form of visitor access fees or leasing part of the site for high-rental facilities such as five star hotels, clubs and expensive restaurants. For the former, this can result in low-income urban citizens being unable to afford the access fees and hence contradicting the principle of equal access for all; while, for the latter, the principle of open access for all is equally violated. To resolve this conflict, a game model is developed to determine how urban managers should allocate WHL spaces to maximize the combination of economic, social and ecological benefits and cultural values. A case study is provided of the Hangzhou's West Lake Scenic Area, a WHL located at the centre of Hangzhou city, in which several high-rental facilities have recently been closed down by the local authorities due to charges of elitism and misuse of public funds by government officials. The result shows that the best solution is to lease a small space with high rents and leave the remainder of the site to the public. This solution is likely to be applicable only in cities with a strong economy.

Adoption of environmental assurance in pastoral industry supply chains - Market failure and beyond

This paper describes adoption rates of environmental assurance within meat and wool supply chains, and discusses this in terms of market interest and demand for certified 'environmentally friendly' products, based on phone surveys and personal interviews with pastoral producers, meat and wool processors, wholesalers and retailers, and domestic consumers. Members of meat and wool supply chains, particularly pastoral producers, are both aware of and interested in implementing various forms of environmental assurance, but significant costs combined with few private benefits have resulted in low adoption rates. The main reason for the lack of benefits is that the end user (the consumer) does not value environmental assurance and is not willing to pay for it. For this reason, global food and fibre supply chains, which compete to supply consumers with safe and quality food at the lowest price, resist public pressure to implement environmental assurance. This market failure is further exacerbated by highly variable environmental and social production standards required of primary producers in different countries, and the disparate levels of government support provided to them. Given that it is the Australian general public and not markets that demand environmental benefits from agriculture, the Australian government has a mandate to use public funds to counter this market failure. A national farm environmental policy should utilise a range of financial incentives to reward farmers for delivering general public good environmental outcomes, with these specified and verified through a national environmental assurance scheme.

Land condition monitoring information for reef catchments: a new era

Land condition monitoring information is required for the strategic management of grazing land and for a better understanding of ecosystem processes. Yet, for policy makers and those land managers whose properties are situated within north-eastern Australia's vast Great Barrier Reef catchments, there has been a general lack of geospatial land condition monitoring information. This paper provides an overview of integrated land monitoring activity in rangeland areas of two major Reef catchments in Queensland: the Burdekin and Fitzroy regions. The project aims were to assemble land condition monitoring datasets that would assist grazing land management and support decision-makers investing public funds; and deliver these data to natural resource management(NRM) community groups, which had been given increased responsibility for delivering local environmental outcomes. We describe the rationale and processes used to produce new land condition monitoring datasets derived from remotely sensed Landsat thematic mapper (TM) and high resolution SPOT 5 satellite imagery and from rapid land condition ground assessment. Specific products include subcatchment groundcover change maps, regional mapping of indicative very poor land condition, and stratified land condition site summaries. Their application, integration, and limitations are discussed. The major innovation is a better understanding of NRM issues with respect to land condition across vast regional areas, and the effective transfer of decision-making capacity to the local level. Likewise, with an increased ability to address policy questions from an evidence-based position, combined with increased cooperation between community, industry and all levels of government, a new era has emerged for decision-makers in rangeland management.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Sistema eletrônico de votação da Câmara dos Deputados : um estudo à luz da segurança da informação

A informação é considerada hoje um dos maiores ativos nas organizações, e, como tal, necessita ser protegida de forma adequada às necessidades do negócio. Conforme o valor da informação cresce, aumenta também o interesse em interceptar e adulterar seu conteúdo, levando a um comprometimento dos sistemas que suportam o negócio. A Câmara dos Deputados é um dos órgãos integrantes do Poder Legislativo Brasileiro e cabe a ela representar o povo, legislar sobre os assuntos de interesse nacional e fiscalizar a aplicação dos recursos públicos. Por meio de seu Sistema Eletrônico de Votação, ocorrem votações em que são tomadas decisões que afetam a vida de toda a nação. Com o uso da pesquisa documental, realizada a partir de um estudo de caso efetuado com base na análise de documentos existentes no âmbito da Coordenação do Sistema Eletrônico de Votação, este trabalho pretende comparar os controles de segurança da informação em uso e os controles recomendados para obtenção da certificação ISO 27001, para que se dê transparência ao processo de votação. Este trabalho apresenta como resultado o percentual dos controles recomendados pela norma que estão em uso, permitindo demonstrar que a segurança da informação é seriamente considerada durante o processo eletrônico de votação no Plenário Ulysses Guimarães da Câmara dos Deputados.

The long road of climate negotiations: From Kyoto to Paris stopping over in Doha

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A contribuição de melhoria como instrumento de política urbana

Com o crescimento desordenado das cidades, surgiu a necessidade de um planejamento urbano adequado, que garantisse a dignidade da pessoa humana e o respeito aos direitos fundamentais. Em um sistema tributário inchado, com reformas desastrosas e o colapso financeiro de Municípios, alternativas de solução para o problema do crescimento das cidades são essenciais. A contribuição de melhoria, tributo pioneiramente previsto na Constituição Federal de 1934, é uma dessas alternativas, na medida em que pode representar importante e justo meio de obtenção de recursos públicos que financiem políticas urbanas. Ademais, o tributo em questão atende aos princípios jurídicos, como o da capacidade contributiva e aquele que veda o enriquecimento sem causa. A contribuição de melhoria, inspirada particularmente no special assessment do direito norte-americano e na betterment tax inglesa, também é uma expressiva forma de consagração da função social da propriedade. A depender de vontade política e de iniciativas administrativas, a contribuição de melhoria pode gerar resultados inusitados para a ordenação do crescimento das cidades no Brasil, para o atendimento da função social da propriedade e para o respeito aos direitos fundamentais, daí dever-se reconhecer seu caráter de relevante instrumento de política urbana.

Consenso escudado pela coerção? Avaliação Institucional como instrumento de disputa pela hegemonia

As análises em torno da atual (re) configuração do capitalismo é um elemento imprescindível para uma crítica da política educacional superior em curso nos países em desenvolvimento, sendo justificada no discurso oficial pela necessidade de adequação destes à ?nova ordem mundial?. Podemos identificar que desde os anos 1990, realiza-se um processo de privatização da educação superior no país, caracterizado pela mercadorização da educação, pela desresponsabilização do Estado na garantia da educação como direito e pela destinação de verbas públicas para a iniciativa privada, é nesse quadro que se insere as mudanças que se processam na avaliação institucional das Instituições de Educação Superior (IES) públicas realizadas no Brasil a partir da década de 1990, seguindo num movimento de continuidades adentrando as décadas seguintes com o governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002) e suas políticas de reformas, sendo ratificada pelos planos e metas de ajuste do governo de Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010).

Saúde e política de transplante: um estudo sobre as particularidades da política de transplantes do estado do Rio de Janeiro

O estudo que se apresenta tem como objeto a Política de Transplante do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e as suas particularidades, visando captar as transformações que este vem sofrendo, especialmente na atualidade, quando se observa importantes transformações na Política de Saúde Brasileira e Estadual. As disputas entre os diferentes projetos de saúde na atualidade o Projeto Privatista e o Projeto de Reforma Sanitária - vem impactando na configuração da política pública de transplante. No caso do Rio de Janeiro, observa-se uma forte tendência de fortalecimento do Projeto Privatista com a criação do Programa Estadual de Transplantes. Repasse maior de recursos financeiros públicos em unidades privadas, a ampliação da oferta de transplantes através de parcerias privadas e a contratação de funcionários por contratos e outros vínculos que não garantem os direitos dos trabalhadores são as principais estratégias que foram adotadas pelo Estado do Rio. Identificar essas estratégias de privatização se torna essencial para a construção de respostas democráticas para combatê-las e fortalecer o SUS.

Reconversão docente: o trabalho flexível na educação um estudo a partir das reformas em Minas Gerais

Esta tese analisa as mudanças no trabalho docente tendo como objeto particular de pesquisa o estado de Minas Gerais. A escolha se deve ao protagonismo e , em certa medida, pioneirismo das burguesia mineira no ajuste conservador realizado no Brasil recente. Neste percurso de investigação foram analisadas três gerações de reformas chamadas Choque de Gestão, Estado para Resultados, Estado em Rede ou Gestão para a Cidadania. A abordagem específica sobre as implicações das mudanças sobre o trabalho docente teve como fontes os Planos de Cargos e Salários, as Lei 100 que criou a modalidade efetivado como forma distinta (e inconstitucional) de inserção precária, a reforma no regime de previdência estadual. As mudanças no currículo, como expressão particular das reformas no âmbito da formação humana, foram analisadas em primeiro lugar como mediação do processo de trabalho docente. Estas transformações conduziram a pesquisa para a constatação de que observamos o fenômeno da reconversão docente, da modelagem do trabalhador flexível na educação básica, sendo parte indissociável deste processo a precarização do trabalho e o aprofundamento da proletarização do professor. A pesquisa também indicou as formas que a apropriação do fundo público assume a partir do Choque de Gestão e o caráter regressivo destas políticas não só para o trabalhador em educação, mas para o conjunto dos chamados direitos sociais. Na construção teórica que conduziu a pesquisa utilizamos o método materialista histórico e dialético, a concepção de Estado como relação entre as classes, o trabalho como práxis social. A tese traz como contribuição uma profunda reflexão sobre o trabalho em geral e o trabalho docente em particular com a construção de duas categorias complementares de análise: a apropriação de mais anti-valor e a subsunção real espelhada. Esta sendo a expropriação que atinge diretamente quem trabalha no setor público, expressão da apropriação privada do bem público na parte que caberia ao trabalhador do setor, expropriado de suas condições de subsistência e porque do ponto de vista mais geral, reflete o processo realizado no setor diretamente produtivo sendo a face complementar tanto da acumulação quanto da universalização das formas de trabalho e de sociabilidade capitalista

Elementos para a crítica da economia política da saúde no Brasil: parcerias público privadas e valorização do capital

A construção do SUS se dá no momento da contrarrevolução monetarista, em curso desde a década de 1970 em vários países, que alcança o Brasil na década de 1990 e rapidamente se torna hegemônica em todo o mundo. A relação histórica entre público e privado no setor de saúde brasileiro, intercedida pelo papel do Estado e do fundo público na sua regulação e financiamento, irá, então, ganhar novos formatos e novas determinações. A proposta do trabalho foi investigar, por meio dos dados do orçamento público brasileiro e de três municípios, os mecanismos atualmente utilizados pelo capital no setor saúde para se apropriar do fundo público como mecanismo essencial para sua permanente valorização. Essa apropriação de fundo público dá suporte ao processo de subsunção real do conjunto de atividades do setor saúde ao capital no Brasil, no qual se incluem os serviços, processo que ainda está em curso.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Belfast Soundwalks

The Belfast Soundwalks project, led by Professor Pedro Rebelo and co-ordinated by Dr Sarah Bass (Sonic Arts Research Centre) in collaboration with Belfast City Council (BCC), aims to use sonic art to engage the public through the development of a locative mobile phone app. Targeting both tourists and citizens of the city, this project aims to sonically enhance the experience of a number of areas of the city, including destinations that may not traditionally be accessed as attractions by visitors and/or disregarded or undervalued by local residents. The project will bring together a number of sonic artists/composers who will create approximately ten soundwalks around the city, while liaising with BCC to distribute the resulting app to the public in line with their tourism and cultural strategy. The project is centred on the development of smart phone apps which provide unique listening experiences associated with key places in the city. The user’s location in the city is tracked through GPS which triggers sound materials ranging from speech to environmental sound and abstract imagined sound worlds. Additionally, local community groups will be consulted in order to evaluate and reflect upon the effectiveness of the soundwalks.

The project builds on the success of the Literary Belfast app and aims to further strengthen links between Queen’s University Belfast and Belfast City Council through facilitating the dissemination of an art form not widely experienced by the general public. Through the newly created Institute for Collaborative Research in the Humanities, directed by Professor John Thompson we are articulating this project with Queen’s consortium partners, Newcastle University and Durham University.

“The Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) funds world-class, independent researchers in a wide range of subjects: ancient history, modern dance, archaeology, digital content, philosophy, English literature, design, the creative and performing arts, and much more. This financial year the AHRC will spend approximately £98m to fund research and postgraduate training in collaboration with a number of partners. The quality and range of research supported by this investment of public funds not only provides social and cultural benefits but also contributes to the economic success of the UK. For further information on the AHRC, please go to: www.ahrc.ac.uk”.

Ensaios sobre o crescimento económico regional e a dinâmica do processo de convergência

The research is centred on economic growth and it adopts a regional view focused on European regions (NUTS 2). Under analysis is the undergoing convergence process in Europe to evaluate if there is an increase in regional economic growth and a simultaneous decrease in regional disparities. The empirical evidence shows signs of transience on the regional convergence process, along with the formation of several clusters of regions. Considering this evidence it is of interest to assess the profiles of such clusters, and evaluate the homogeneousness of its regions and their spread across European space. As suggested in the literature, space is a relevant factor in the spread of clusters, according to the different variables (regions profiles, diversity measures and growth indicators). Regional disparities across Europe are, on average, large and persistent, with a high degree of stability among the relative rankings of European regions. Such results cast shadows about the impact of European structural funding in diminishing regional disparities. Such an approach is of interest due to the growing need to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of public policies implemented. The fact that there is an undergoing process of economic integration in Europe increases the usefulness of such an analysis, especially in a context in which European public funds are negotiated and granted.