Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Clypeotheca, a new skeletal structure in scleractinian corals : a potential stress indicator

Physiological responses to environmental stress are increasingly well studied in scleractinian corals. This work reports a new stress-related skeletal structure we term clypeotheca. Clypeotheca was observed in several livecollected common reef-building coral genera and a two to three kya subfossil specimen from Heron Reef, Great Barrier Reef and consists of an epitheca-like skeletal wall that seals over the surface of parts of the corallum in areas of stress or damage. It appears to form from a coordinated process wherein neighboring polyps and adjoining coenosarc seal themselves off from the surrounding environment as they contract and die. Clypeotheca forms from inward skeletal centripetal growth at the edges of corallites and by the merging of flange-like outgrowths that surround individual spines over the surface of the coenosteum. Microstructurally, the merged flanges are similar to upsidedown dissepiments and true epitheca. Clypeotheca is interpreted primarily as a response to stress that may help protect the colony from invasion of unhealthy tissues by parasites or disease by retracting tissues in areas that have become unhealthy for the polyps. Identification of skeletal responses of corals to environmental stress may enable the frequency of certain types of environmental stress to be documented in past environments. Such data may be important for understanding the nature of reef dynamics through intervals of climate change and for monitoring the effects of possible anthropogenic stress in modern coral reef habitats.

Kindergarten students' understanding of probability concepts

This study explored kindergarten students’ intuitive strategies and understandings in probabilities. The paper aims to provide an in depth insight into the levels of probability understanding across four constructs, as proposed by Jones (1997), for kindergarten students. Qualitative evidence from two students revealed that even before instruction pupils have a good capacity of predicting most and least likely events, of distinguishing fair probability situations from unfair ones, of comparing the probability of an event in two sample spaces, and of recognizing conditional probability events. These results contribute to the growing evidence on kindergarten students’ intuitive probabilistic reasoning. The potential of this study for improving the learning of probability, as well as suggestions for further research, are discussed.

Implications of faecal indicator bacteria for the microbiological assessment of roof harvested rainwater quality in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The study aimed to evaluate the suitability of Escherichia coli, enterococci and C. perfringens to assess the microbiological quality of roof harvested rainwater, and to assess whether the concentrations of these faecal indicators can be used to predict the presence or absence of specific zoonotic bacterial or protozoan pathogens. From a total of 100 samples tested, respectively 58%, 83% and 46% of samples were found to be positive for E. coli, enterococci and C. perfringens spores, as determined by traditional culture based methods. Additionally, in the samples tested, 7%, 19%, 1%, 8%, 17%, and 15% were PCR positive for A. hydrophila lip, C. coli ceuE, C. jejuni mapA, L. pneumophila mip, Salmonella invA, and G. lamblia β-giardin genes. However, none of the samples was positive for E. coli O157 LPS, VT1, VT2 and C. parvum COWP genes. The presence or absence of these potential pathogens did not correlate with any of the faecal indicator bacterial concentrations as determined by a binary logistic regression model. The roof-harvested rainwater samples tested in this study appear to be of poor microbiological quality and no significant correlation was found between the concentration of faecal indicators and pathogenic microorganisms. The use of faecal indicator bacteria raises questions regarding their reliability in assessing the microbiological quality of water and particularly their poor correlation with pathogenic microorganisms. The presence of one or more zoonotic pathogens suggests that the microbiological analysis of water should be performed, and appropriate treatment measures should be undertaken especially in tanks where the water is used for drinking.

Probability based data analysis for road asset management

Road agencies require comprehensive, relevan and quality data describing their road assets to support their investment decisions. An investment decision support system for raod maintenance and rehabilitation mainly comprise three important supporting elements namely: road asset data, decision support tools and criteria for decision-making. Probability-based methods have played a crucial role in helping decision makers understand the relationship among road related data, asset performance and uncertainties in estimating budgets/costs for road management investment. This paper presents applications of the probability-bsed method for road asset management.

Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.