A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Comparación de ranking del Ministerio de Salud (Minsal) e impacto financiero de las 40 primeras patologías Auge-GES vigentes en Chile

El presente artículo compara el ranking Minsal de 40 patologías Auge-GES con el determinado por impacto financiero. Se elaboró una base de datos homogénea, se estandarizaron datos y se aplicaron correlaciones Pearson y Spearman. Se concluye que el criterio de impacto financiero cambia efectivamente las prioridades y modifica la congruencia social de la política de Estado.

O emprego da análise de balanços e métodos estatísticos na área pública: o ranking de gestão dos municípios catarinenses

Com o fenômeno da globalização, a contabilidade tem passado por modificações que se refletiram, inicialmente, no âmbito empresarial e só alguns anos mais tarde na administração pública. Há uma tendência cada vez maior e crescente de pressionar os governantes para ampliarem o campo de suas responsabilidades financeiras a partir da contabilidade voltada para a gestão das contas públicas. A responsabilidade fiscal dos governos é fundamental para fomentar o crescimento econômico e o desenvolvimento dos municípios. O presente estudo visa demonstrar em que medida os índices de análise econômico-financeira podem ser empregados na administração pública a fim de se estabelecer um ranking na gestão dos municípios catarinenses. Para atingir tal finalidade, utilizou-se de conceitos e técnicas de análise de balanço, os quais foram tratados com a aplicação da análise de componentes principais. Os resultados indicam a importância do emprego da análise de balanços na área pública como ferramenta a ser utilizada no cotidiano da administração governamental.

Ranking dos tribunais de contas brasileiros: uma avaliação a partir dos padrões web em governo eletrônico

Nos últimos 10 anos, o governo federal tem coordenado e articulado ações visando a implementação de projetos com ênfase em iniciativas voltadas para o uso das tecnologias de informação e comunicação (TICs) em suas relações com os cidadãos, com o setor privado e com a sociedade em geral. Considerando um forte movimento em prol de inserir o cidadão no centro desse processo, este artigo busca, a partir de uma pesquisa quantitativa/qualitativa, verificar em qual estágio de evolução encontram-se os sites governamentais dos tribunais de contas brasileiros. A partir dessa análise, foi possível mapear pontos a serem melhorados bem como estabelecer um ranking dos sites, tendo em vista o direito de acesso, a disponibilização de informações, a participação e o acompanhamento na execução das políticas públicas.

Ranking das prefeituras da região Sul do Brasil: uma avaliação a partir de critérios estabelecidos na Lei de Acesso à Informação

A Lei de Acesso à Informação representa um passo fundamental rumo à consolidação da democracia brasileira. Entre seus preceitos, está a obrigação da disposição de informações na rede sobre a estrutura, funcionamento e prestação de contas dos órgãos/entidades da administração direta e indireta e de todos aqueles que recebem subvenção pública. Considerando sua relevância no contexto atual, este artigo busca, a partir de uma pesquisa mista, analisar como a referida lei está sendo implementada pelas prefeituras da região Sul do país. A partir dessa análise, foi possível mapear os efeitos iniciais da aplicação da lei durante o seu primeiro ano de vigência bem como estabelecer um ranking dos sites, tendo em vista o cumprimento das disposições nela estabelecidas.

Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.

Increase of the delivered energy probability in DES using a fuzzy probabilistic modeling

The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

A probabilistic methodology for distributed generation location in isolated electrical service area

Distributed generation unlike centralized electrical generation aims to generate electrical energy on small scale as near as possible to load centers, interchanging electric power with the network. This work presents a probabilistic methodology conceived to assist the electric system planning engineers in the selection of the distributed generation location, taking into account the hourly load changes or the daily load cycle. The hourly load centers, for each of the different hourly load scenarios, are calculated deterministically. These location points, properly weighted according to their load magnitude, are used to calculate the best fit probability distribution. This distribution is used to determine the maximum likelihood perimeter of the area where each source distributed generation point should preferably be located by the planning engineers. This takes into account, for example, the availability and the cost of the land lots, which are factors of special relevance in urban areas, as well as several obstacles important for the final selection of the candidates of the distributed generation points. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real case, assuming three different bivariate probability distributions: the Gaussian distribution, a bivariate version of Freund’s exponential distribution and the Weibull probability distribution. The methodology algorithm has been programmed in MATLAB. Results are presented and discussed for the application of the methodology to a realistic case and demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology for efficiently handling the determination of the best location of the distributed generation and their corresponding distribution networks.

Probabilistic approach for comparing partitions

3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings, 11-14 June 2014, Lisbon, Portugal.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanical properties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the Probabilistic Model Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic models for the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Probabilistic consensus clustering using evidence accumulation

Clustering ensemble methods produce a consensus partition of a set of data points by combining the results of a collection of base clustering algorithms. In the evidence accumulation clustering (EAC) paradigm, the clustering ensemble is transformed into a pairwise co-association matrix, thus avoiding the label correspondence problem, which is intrinsic to other clustering ensemble schemes. In this paper, we propose a consensus clustering approach based on the EAC paradigm, which is not limited to crisp partitions and fully exploits the nature of the co-association matrix. Our solution determines probabilistic assignments of data points to clusters by minimizing a Bregman divergence between the observed co-association frequencies and the corresponding co-occurrence probabilities expressed as functions of the unknown assignments. We additionally propose an optimization algorithm to find a solution under any double-convex Bregman divergence. Experiments on both synthetic and real benchmark data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures

In developed countries, civil infrastructures are one of the most significant investments of governments, corporations, and individuals. Among these, transportation infrastructures, including highways, bridges, airports, and ports, are of huge importance, both economical and social. Most developed countries have built a fairly complete network of highways to fit their needs. As a result, the required investment in building new highways has diminished during the last decade, and should be further reduced in the following years. On the other hand, significant structural deteriorations have been detected in transportation networks, and a huge investment is necessary to keep these infrastructures safe and serviceable. Due to the significant importance of bridges in the serviceability of highway networks, maintenance of these structures plays a major role. In this paper, recent progress in probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures with emphasis on bridges is summarized. A novel model including interaction between structural safety analysis,through the safety index, and visual inspections and non destructive tests, through the condition index, is presented. Single objective optimization techniques leading to maintenance strategies associated with minimum expected cumulative cost and acceptable levels of condition and safety are presented. Furthermore, multi-objective optimization is used to simultaneously consider several performance indicators such as safety, condition, and cumulative cost. Realistic examples of the application of some of these techniques and strategies are also presented.