A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

A probabilistic movement model for shortest path formation in virtual ant-like agents

We propose a probabilistic movement model for controlling ant-like agents foraging between two points. Such agents are all identical, simple, autonomous and can only communicate indirectly through the environment. These agents secrete two types of pheromone, one to mark trails towards the goal and another to mark trails back to the starting point. Three pheromone perception strategies are proposed (Strategy A, B and C). Agents that use strategy A perceive the desirability of a neighbouring location as the difference between levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone in that location. With strategy B, agents perceive the desirability of a location as the quotient of levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone. Agents using strategy C determine the product of the levels of attractive pheromone with the complement of levels of repulsive pheromone. We conduct experiments to confirm directionality as emergent property of trails formed by agents that use each strategy. In addition, we compare path formation speed and the quality of the formed path under changes in the environment. We also investigate each strategy's robustness in environments that contain obstacles. Finally, we investigate how adaptive each strategy is when obstacles are eventually removed from the scene and find that the best strategy of these three is strategy A. Such a strategy provides useful guidelines to researchers in further applications of swarm intelligence metaphors for complex problem solving.

Graphical models and point set matching

Point pattern matching in Euclidean Spaces is one of the fundamental problems in Pattern Recognition, having applications ranging from Computer Vision to Computational Chemistry. Whenever two complex patterns are encoded by two sets of points identifying their key features, their comparison can be seen as a point pattern matching problem. This work proposes a single approach to both exact and inexact point set matching in Euclidean Spaces of arbitrary dimension. In the case of exact matching, it is assured to find an optimal solution. For inexact matching (when noise is involved), experimental results confirm the validity of the approach. We start by regarding point pattern matching as a weighted graph matching problem. We then formulate the weighted graph matching problem as one of Bayesian inference in a probabilistic graphical model. By exploiting the existence of fundamental constraints in patterns embedded in Euclidean Spaces, we prove that for exact point set matching a simple graphical model is equivalent to the full model. It is possible to show that exact probabilistic inference in this simple model has polynomial time complexity with respect to the number of elements in the patterns to be matched. This gives rise to a technique that for exact matching provably finds a global optimum in polynomial time for any dimensionality of the underlying Euclidean Space. Computational experiments comparing this technique with well-known probabilistic relaxation labeling show significant performance improvement for inexact matching. The proposed approach is significantly more robust under augmentation of the sizes of the involved patterns. In the absence of noise, the results are always perfect.

A simple graphical model of small mammal succession after fire in the Brazilian cerrado

We studied the succession of small mammal species after fire in the cerrado (Neotropical savanna) of Central Brazil. Populations of small mammals were sampled with live-trapping techniques in a series of nine sites of different successional age, ranging from 1 to 26 years after fire. Ten species of small mammals were captured through all the seral stages of succession. Species richness ranged from two to seven species by seral stage. The species were arranged in different groups with respect to abundance along the succession: the first was composed of early successional species that peaked <2 years after fire (Calomys callosus, C. tener, Thalpomys cerradensis, Mus musculus, Thylamys velutinus); the second occurred or peaked 2-3 years after fire (Necromys lasiurus, Gracilinanus sp., Oryzomys scoth). Gracilinanus agilis peaked in the last seral stage. Species richness of small mammals showed an abrupt decrease from an average of four species immediately after fire to two species 5-26 years after the last fire. We propose a simple graphical model to explain the pattern of species richness of small mammals after fire in the cerrado. This model assumes that the occurrence of species of small mammals is determined by habitat selection behavior by each species along a habitat gradient. The habitat gradient is defined as the ratio of cover of herbaceous to woody vegetation. The replacement of species results from a trade-off in habitat requirements for the two habitat variables.

Graphical Model-Based Vertebra Identification from X-Ray Image(s)

Automated identification of vertebrae from X-ray image(s) is an important step for various medical image computing tasks such as 2D/3D rigid and non-rigid registration. In this chapter we present a graphical model-based solution for automated vertebra identification from X-ray image(s). Our solution does not ask for a training process using training data and has the capability to automatically determine the number of vertebrae visible in the image(s). This is achieved by combining a graphical model-based maximum a posterior probability (MAP) estimate with a mean-shift based clustering. Experiments conducted on simulated X-ray images as well as on a low-dose low quality X-ray spinal image of a scoliotic patient verified its performance.

A probabilistic switch model of information flow in social networks: Application for virtual circuits to organizational design

Network building and exchange of information by people within networks is crucial to the innovation process. Contrary to older models, in social networks the flow of information is noncontinuous and nonlinear. There are critical barriers to information flow that operate in a problematic manner. New models and new analytic tools are needed for these systems. This paper introduces the concept of virtual circuits and draws on recent concepts of network modelling and design to introduce a probabilistic switch theory that can be described using matrices. It can be used to model multistep information flow between people within organisational networks, to provide formal definitions of efficient and balanced networks and to describe distortion of information as it passes along human communication channels. The concept of multi-dimensional information space arises naturally from the use of matrices. The theory and the use of serial diagonal matrices have applications to organisational design and to the modelling of other systems. It is hypothesised that opinion leaders or creative individuals are more likely to emerge at information-rich nodes in networks. A mathematical definition of such nodes is developed and it does not invariably correspond with centrality as defined by early work on networks.