Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Multimorbidity in primary care : protocol of a national cross-sectional study in Switzerland.

INTRODUCTION: With the ageing of the population and the general improvement of care, an increasing number of people are living with multiple chronic health conditions or 'multimorbidity'. Multimorbidity often implies multiple medical treatments. As a consequence, the risk of adverse events and the time spent by patients for their treatments increase exponentially. In many cases, treatment guidelines traditionally defined for single conditions are not easily applicable. Primary care for individuals with multimorbidity requires complex patient-centred care and good communication between the patient and the general practitioner (GP). This often includes prioritising among the different chronic conditions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The main objectives of this study are to describe the burden related to multimorbidity (disease-related burden and burden of treatment) in primary care and to identify the factors influencing it. Other objectives include evaluating patients' perception of treatment burden and quality of life, assessing factors influencing that perception, and investigating prioritisation in the management of multimorbidity from the perspectives of GPs and patients. For this cross-sectional study, patient enrolment will take place in GP's private practices across Switzerland. A convenient sample of 100 GPs will participate; overall, 1000 patients with at least three chronic health conditions will be enrolled. Data will be collected as paper-based questionnaires for GPs and delayed telephone interview questionnaires for patients. GPs will provide demographic and practice-related data. In addition, each GP will complete a paper-based questionnaire for each patient that they enrol. Each patient will complete a telephone interview questionnaire. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the research ethics committee of Canton Vaud, Switzerland (Protocol 315/14). The results of the study will be reported in international peer-reviewed journals.

Ammattikorkeakoulun yhteiskuntavastuu sidosryhmävuorovaikutuksen näkökulmasta

Tutkielman tarkoituksena on tutkia sidosryhmävuorovaikutuksen roolia ammattikorkeakoulun yhteiskuntavastuutehtävän toteuttamisessa. Tavoitteena on selvittää, millaisista ulottuvuuksista ammattikorkeakoulun yhteiskuntavastuu sidosryhmien näkökulmasta muodostuu, miten ammattikorkeakoulut toteuttavat sidosryhmävuorovaikutusta sekä mitä arvoa vuorovaikutus tuottaa osapuolille. Tutkimusstrategiana on laadullinen tapaustutkimus, jonka aineistonkeruumenetelmänä on teemahaastattelu ja tutkimusmetodina sisällönanalyysi. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kolmen sidosryhmän ja kohdeorganisaation edustajien haastatteluista. Kohdeorganisaatio on Kymenlaakson ammattikorkeakoulu. Tutkimustulosten mukaan ammattikorkeakoulun yhteiskuntavastuu on pitkälle säädelty, laaja ja verkostomainen kokonaisuus, jossa sidosryhmät jakavat vastuuta. Lakisääteiset tehtävät muodostavat yhteiskuntavastuun rungon, jonka lisäksi ammattikorkeakoululla on samat vastuut kuin yrityksillä. Lakisääteisen ja valtionohjauksen perustason ylittäminen on mahdollista strategian, profiloitumisen ja laadunvarmistuksen avulla. Yhteiskuntavastuu ja siihen liittyvä vuorovaikutus integroituvat osaksi ammattikorkeakoulun toimintaa. Strategia suuntaa sidosryhmävuorovaikutukseen liittyvää ja käytössä olevien resurssien edellyttämää priorisointia. Vuorovaikutus on tutkielman perusteella strategista toimintaa, jonka moraaliset ja arvoa luovat ominaisuudet määräytyvät sekä valtionohjauksen että ammattikorkeakoulun vapaaehtoisesti ottamien vastuiden kautta.

Peltipoliisista hengenpelastajaksi : Automaattisen liikenneturvallisuusvalvonnan tarveselvitys 2011 – 2015

Työssä laadittiin automaattisen liikenneturvallisuusvalvonnan kehittämis- ja investointisuunnitelma vuosille 2011-2015 Varsinais-Suomen ja Satakunnan maantieverkolle. Suunnitelmaan kuului nykyisen toimintamallin ja kehittämistarpeiden arviointi sekä vuosina 2011-2015 toteutettavien automaattivalvontajaksojen ja hankkeiden priorisointi. Lisäksi työssä kuvattiin Ruotsissa käytössä olevaa automaattivalvontatekniikkaa ja -toimintamallia sekä esitettiin toimenpide-ehdotuksia automaattivalvonnan hyväksyttävyyden lisäämiseksi. Nykyistä toimintamallia ja automaattivalvonnan kehittämistarpeita arvioitiin asiantuntijahaastattelujen perusteella. Asiantuntijat pitivät nykyistä toimintamallia pääasiassa toimivana ja tehokkaana, sillä suhteellisen pienillä kustannuksilla on päästy tehokkaisiin tuloksiin. Automaattivalvonnassa on kuitenkin asiantuntijoiden mielestä vielä kehitettävää ja Ruotsin toimintamallia pidettiin hyvänä suuntana ja esimerkkinä. Suurimpina kehittämiskohteina pidettiin tekniikan kehittämistä sekä tiedon käsittelyn nopeuttamista ja automatisointia, mikä lisäisi poliisin resursseja valvonnan suorittamiseen. Vuosina 2011-2015 toteutettavat automaattivalvotut tiejaksot priorisoitiin ensisijaisesti onnettomuustiheyksien, onnettomuusmäärien, Tarva-laskentatulosten, nopeustietojen ja liikennemäärien perusteella. Onnettomuustilastoista huomioitiin lähinnä henkilövahinkoon johtaneet onnettomuudet. Lisäksi Tarva-laskentatuloksia hyödynnettiin automaattivalvonnan vaikutusten ja tehokkuuden arvioinnissa. Haastateltujen asiantuntijoiden mielestä tärkeimmät keinot hyväksyttävyyden lisäämiseksi olivat valvonnan avoimuus, valvontalaitteiden näkyvyys ja jatkuva valvonnasta tiedottaminen. Tiedottamisella tuodaan esille järjestelmän hyödyt ja sen merkitys liikenteelle ja liikenneturvallisuuteen. Myös automaattivalvontakameran brändin muuttamista Ruotsin mallin mukaisesti turvallisuuskameraksi pidettiin hyvänä. Tässä työssä esitettiin suunnitelma automaattivalvonnan hyväksyttävyyden lisäämiseksi.

Från plåtpolis till livräddare : Behovsanalys för automatisk trafiksäkerhetskontroll 2011 – 2015

I det här arbetet utformades en utvecklings- och investeringsplan för automatisk trafiksäkerhetsövervakning för åren 2011-2015 för landsvägsnätet i Egentliga Finland och Satakunta. Planen innehåller analys av den nuvarande verksamhetsmodellen och förslag hur verksamhetsmodellen kunde förbättras samt förslag om vilka vägavsnitt som ska få automatisk övervakning och vilka projekt som ska prioriteras under åren 2011-2015. Vidare beskrivs i planen den automatiska övervakningsteknik och verksamhetsmodell som används i Sverige samt åtgärdsförslag för att öka den automatiska trafikövervakningens acceptans. Den nuvarande verksamhetsmodellen och behovet av att utveckla den automatiska trafikövervakningen har utvärderats på basis av intervjuer med experter. Experterna ansåg att den nuvarande verksamhetsmodellen i huvudsak är funktionell och effektiv, eftersom man med relativt små kostnader har uppnått effektiva resultat. Den automatiska trafikövervakningen måste dock fortfarande utvecklas och Sveriges verksamhetsmodell ansågs vara en bra förebild och ett gott exempel. De viktigaste utvecklingsområdena ansågs vara utveckling av tekniken, snabbare informationsbehandling och automatisering, vilket skulle öka polisens resurser att verkställa övervakningen. Vägavsnitten som ska få automatisk övervakning under åren 2011-2015 prioriterades främst på basis av olycksfrekvens, antal olyckor, Tarva-beräkningsresultat, hastighetsdata och trafikmängder. Av olycksstatistiken har man främst uppmärksammat personskadeolyckor. Tarva-beräkningarna användes också för att utvärdera den automatiska trafikövervakningens inverkan och effektivitet. Enligt de intervjuade experterna är öppenhet kring övervakningen, synlig övervakningsapparatur och kontinuerlig informationsförmedling bland de viktigaste sätten att öka acceptansen. Genom att informera för man fram systemets fördelar och dess betydelse för trafiksäkerheten. Att förändra övervakningskamerans varumärke till säkerhetskamera enligt Sveriges modell ansågs även vara bra. I detta arbete presenteras en plan för att utveckla acceptansen för automatisk trafiksäkerhetsövervakning.

Envisioning (starting the project)2: User Stories, Sprint Planning, Risk Assessment

Second in a two part set of lectures on Agile Envisioning. The lectures describe the process of starting up a project. 1) creating a shared understanding amongst the team and customers using Stakeholder Analysis, Personas and User stories 2) Sprint planning and using a burndown chart 3) Risk assessment

User-intimate requirements hierarchy resolution framework (UI-REF)

Abstract. This paper presents the User-Intimate Requirements Hierarchy Resolution Framework (UI-REF) based on earlier work (Badii 1997-2008) to optimise the requirements engineering process particularly to support userintimate interactive systems co-design. The stages of the UI- EF framework for requirements resolution-and-prioritisation are described. UI-REF has been established to ensure that the most-deeply-valued needs of the majority of stakeholders are elicited and ranked, and the root rationale for requirements evolution is trace-able and contextualised so as to help resolve stakeholder conflicts. UI-REF supports the dynamically evolving requirements of the users in the context of digital economy as under-pinned by online service provisioning. Requirements prioritisation in UI-REF is fully resolved while a promotion path for lower priority requirements is delineated so as to ensure that as the requirements evolve so will their resolution and prioritisation.

Implications of climate change for diseases, crop yields and food security

Accelerated climate change affects components of complex biological interactions differentially, often causing changes that are difficult to predict. Crop yield and quality are affected by climate change directly, and indirectly, through diseases that themselves will change but remain important. These effects are difficult to dissect and model as their mechanistic bases are generally poorly understood. Nevertheless, a combination of integrated modelling from different disciplines and multi-factorial experimentation will advance our understanding and prioritisation of the challenges. Food security brings in additional socio-economic, geographical and political factors. Enhancing resilience to the effects of climate change is important for all these systems and functional diversity is one of the most effective targets for improved sustainability.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate?

Many countries have conservation plans for threatened species, but such plans have generally been developed without taking into account the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we apply a decision framework, specifically developed to identify and prioritise climate change adaptation actions and demonstrate its use for 30 species threatened in the UK. Our aim is to assess whether government conservation recommendations remain appropriate under a changing climate. The species, associated with three different habitats (lowland heath, broadleaved woodland and calcareous grassland), were selected from a range of taxonomic groups (primarily moths and vascular plants, but also including bees, bryophytes, carabid beetles and spiders). We compare the actions identified for these threatened species by the decision framework with those included in existing conservation plans, as developed by the UK Government's statutory adviser on nature conservation. We find that many existing conservation recommendations are also identified by the decision framework. However, there are large differences in the spatial prioritisation of actions when explicitly considering projected climate change impacts. This includes recommendations for actions to be carried out in areas where species do not currently occur, in order to allow them to track movement of suitable conditions for their survival. Uncertainties in climate change projections are not a reason to ignore them. Our results suggest that existing conservation plans, which do not take into account potential changes in suitable climatic conditions for species, may fail to maximise species persistence. Comparisons across species also suggest a more habitat-focused approach could be adopted to enable climate change adaptation for multiple species.

Incorporation of different and changing client interests in the course of a project

There is a widespread assumption that clients’ expectations should be accommodated during a building project. However, there may be conflicting expectations within a client organization and these may change over time in the course of a project. Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is used to study the incorporation of client expectations into the on-going development of a building project. To illustrate this, negotiations over a particular decision, namely the location of a building on one university campus was analysed. Negotiations went through a number of stages, involving a master plan architect, members of the public, campus maps and the Vice Chancellor. An ANT analysis helped to trace diverse actors' interests in a series of discussions and how these interests conflict with each other as one option was chosen over another. The analysis revealed new client interests in each negotiation process. Also, the prioritisation of client interests changed over time. The documentation of diverse and dynamic client interests especially contributes to the understanding of how some client interests fail to be incorporated in decision-making processes

The 'club' cell and behavioural and physiological responses to chemical alarm cues in the Nile tilapia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

“João e Maria”: uma observação psicanalítica sobre a experiência de crianças em situação de abrigamento

Tendo em vista a importância do ambiente, das relações afetivas e dos efeitos negativos da privação materna nos primeiros anos de vida para o desenvolvimento infantil, a presente pesquisa buscou compreender a experiência de crianças em situação de abrigamento. Para tanto, foram observadas duas crianças, na faixa etária de 23 a 31 meses, de nomes fictícios João e Maria, cujas histórias de vida proporcionaram uma analogia com o conto “João e Maria” dos Irmãos Grimm. As observações foram realizadas em um abrigo estadual, que acolhe crianças de zero a seis anos de idade, na cidade de Belém-PA. As sessões ocorreram duas vezes por semana, com duração de uma hora, durante cinco meses, a partir da aplicação do Método Bick de Observação de Bebês, em seus três momentos distintos: observação, anotação e supervisão em grupo. Os resultados foram organizados em três categorias: 1) O ambiente de cuidado de João e Maria, 2) João e Maria revelados por suas peripécias, e 3) Encontros com a observadora-narradora, sendo esses três eixos analisados com base na perspectiva psicanalítica winnicottiana. Na primeira categoria, foram apresentados fragmentos da história de vida de João e Maria, além de aspectos referentes aos cuidados recebidos nesse contexto, que estiveram permeados, principalmente, por carência de afeto e ausência na priorização das necessidades reais, no tempo e ritmo das crianças, possivelmente em função da dinâmica institucional. Na segunda categoria, foram abordadas as brincadeiras de João e Maria, associadas especialmente ao contato corporal e à relação de cuidados envolvendo seus pares e a observadora, cuja temática mais frequente foi da alimentação. Na terceira e última categoria, foram apresentados os sentimentos, as dificuldades e o aprendizado da observadora, bem como, a sua mobilização interna diante da história de vida das duas crianças e das particularidades do ambiente. Portanto, foi constatado que João e Maria buscavam cuidar e serem cuidados, o que, em sua maioria, envolvia contato corporal e afetivo; mostraram-se disponíveis no contato com o outro e se permitiram criar vínculos afetivos, aspectos saudáveis e positivos para o desenvolvimento infantil. Indubitavelmente, o entendimento da teoria winnicottiana e a utilização do Método Bick de Observação de Bebês contribuíram para a compreensão da experiência de João e Maria e colaboraram significativamente para uma apreensão da realidade dessas crianças e dos seus contextos de desenvolvimento.

Plant invasions research in Latin America: fast track to a more focused agenda

While many developed countries have invested heavily in research on plant invasions over the last 50 years, the immense region of Latin America has made little progress. Recognising this, a group of scientists working on plant invasions in Latin America met in Chile in late 2010 to develop a research agenda for the region based on lessons learned elsewhere. Our three main findings are as follows. (1) Globalisation is inevitable, but the resultant plant introductions can be slowed or prevented by effective quarantine and early intervention. Development of spatially explicit inventories, research on the invasion process and weed risk assessments can help prioritise and streamline action. (2) Eradication has limited application for plants and control is expensive and requires strict prioritisation and careful planning and evaluation. (3) Accepting the concept of novel ecosystems, new combinations of native and introduced species that no longer depend on human intervention, may help optimise invasive species management. Our vision of novel ecosystem management is through actions that: (a) maintain as much native biodiversity and ecosystem functionality as possible, (b) minimise management intervention to invasives with known impact, and (c) maximise the area of intervention. We propose the creation of a Latin American Invasive Plants Network to help focus the new research agenda for member countries. The network would coordinate research and training and establish funding priorities, develop and strengthen tools to share knowledge, and raise awareness at the community, governmental and intergovernmental levels about the social, economic and environmental costs of plant invasions.