Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modulation of post-coital dopaminergic tone by prior parity

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of reproductive experience on dopaminergic profile in three different brain tissues, hypothalamus, striatum and cortex in rats on 7th-8th day of pregnancy during the light-dark shift (between 1700-1900h). Results showed that in hypothalamus, dopamine levels increased and DOPAC/DA decreased as a function of parity. In cortex, no differences were observed. In striata, the haloperidol-induced HVA and HVA/DA increases were less intense in experienced animals. These findings suggested that reproductive experience produced functional central changes during pregnancy, with different neurochemical responses depending on the brain region.

Kinematic parameters and membership probabilities of open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue

Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

Jensen inequalities for tunneling probabilities in complex systems

The Jensen theorem is used to derive inequalities for semiclassical tunneling probabilities for systems involving several degrees of freedom. These Jensen inequalities are used to discuss several aspects of sub-barrier heavy-ion fusion reactions. The inequality hinges on general convexity properties of the tunneling coefficient calculated with the classical action in the classically forbidden region.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

An expert flow system involving in-line prior assay for turbidimetric determination of chloride and sulphate in natural waters

A multi-pumping flow system exploiting prior assay is proposed for sequential turbidimetric determination of sulphate and chloride in natural waters. Both methods are implemented in the same manifold that provides facilities for: in-line sample clean-up with a Bio-Rex 70 mini-column with fluidized beads: addition of low amounts of sulphate or chloride ions to the reaction medium for improving supersaturation; analyte precipitation with Ba(2+) or Ag(+); real-time decision on the need for next assay. The sample is initially run for chloride determination, and the analytical signal is compared with a preset value. If higher, the sample is run again, now for sulphate determination. The strategy may lead to all increased sample throughput. The proposed system is computer-controlled and presents enhanced figures of merit. About 10 samples are run per hour (about 60 measurements) and results are reproducible and Unaffected by the presence of potential interfering ions at concentration levels usually found in natural waters. Accuracy was assessed against ion chromatography. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of beta-artemether and its main metabolite dihydroartemisinin in plasma employing liquid-phase microextraction prior to liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometric analysis

A method for the determination of artemether (ART) and its main metabolite dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in plasma employing liquid-phase microextraction (LPME) for sample preparation prior to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) was developed. The analytes were extracted from 1 nil, of plasma utilizing a two-phase LPME procedure with artemisinin as internal standard. Using the optimized LPME conditions, mean absolute recovery rates of 25 and 32% for DHA and ART, respectively, were achieved using toluene-n-octanol (1:1, viv) as organic phase with an extraction time of 30 min. After extraction, the analytes were resolved within 5 min using a mobile phase consisting of methanol-ammonium acetate (10 mmol L(-1) pH 5.0, 80:20. v/v) on a laboratory-made column based on poly(methyltetradecylsiloxane) attached to a zirconized-silica support. MS-MS detection was employed using an electrospray interface in the positive ion mode. The method developed was linear over the range of 5-1000 ng mL(-1) for both analytes. Precision and accuracy were within acceptable levels of confidence (<15%). The assay was applied to the determination of these analytes in plasma from rats treated with ART. The two-phase LPME procedure is affordable and the solvent consumption was very low compared to the traditional methods of sample preparation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prior and concomitant dehydroepiandrosterone treatment affects immunologic response of cultured macrophages infected with Trypanosoma cruzi in vitro?

DHEA, a steroid hormone synthesized from cholesterol by cells of the adrenal cortex, plays an essential role in enhancing the host`s resistance to different experimental infections. Receptors for this hormone can be found in distinct immune cells (especially macrophages) that are known to be the first line defense against Trypanosoma cruzi infection. These cells operate through an indirect pathway releasing nitric oxide (NO) and cytokines such TNF-alpha and IL-12 which in turn trigger an enhancement of natural killer cells and lymphocytes which finally secrete pro and anti-inflammatory cytokines. The effects of pre- and post-infection DHEA treatment on production of IL-12, TNF alpha and NO were evaluated. T. cruzi infected macrophages post treated with DHEA displayed enhanced concentrations of TNF-alpha, IL-12 and NO. Probably, the mechanisms that induced the production of cytokines by infected cells are more efficient when the immune system has been stimulated first by parasite invasion, suggesting that the protective role of DHEA is greater when administered post infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.

Children`s oral production of narratives and constructive memory using prior reading of pictures

With the purpose of approximating two issues, oral narrative and constructive memory, we assume that children, as well as adults, have a constructive memory. Accordingly, researchers of the constructive memory share with piagetians the vision that memory is an applied cognition. Under this perspective, understanding and coding into memory constitute a process which is considered similar to the piagetian assimilation of building an internal conceptual representation of the information (hence the term constructive memory. The objective of this study is to examine and illustrate, through examples drawn from a research about oral narrative with 5, 8 and 10 years old children, the extent to which the constructive memory is stimulated by the acquisition of the structures of knowledge or ""mental models"" (schemes of stories and scenes, scripts), and if they automatically employ them to process constructively the information in storage and rebuild them in the recovery. A sequence of five pictures from a book without text was transformed into computerized program, and the pictures were thus presented to the children. The story focuses on a misunderstanding of two characters on a different assessment about a key event. In data collection, the demands of memory were preserved, since children narrate their stories when the images were no longer viewed on the computer screen. Each narrative was produced as a monologue. The results show that this story can be told either in a descriptive level or in a more elaborated level, where intentions and beliefs are attributed to the characters. Although this study allows an assessment of the development of children`s capabilities (both cognitive and linguistic) to narrate a story, there are for sure other issues that could be exploited.

Double-blind, Randomized placebo controlled trial of fulvestrant compared with exemestane after prior nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor therapy in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, advanced breast cancer: Results from EFECT

Purpose The third-generation nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are increasingly used as adjuvant and first-line advanced therapy for postmenopausal, hormone receptor-positive (HR +) breast cancer. Because many patients subsequently experience progression or relapse, it is important to identify agents with efficacy after AI failure. Materials and Methods Evaluation of Faslodex versus Exemestane Clinical Trial (EFECT) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled, multicenter phase III trial of fulvestrant versus exemestane in postmenopausal women with HR + advanced breast cancer (ABC) progressing or recurring after nonsteroidal AI. The primary end point was time to progression (TTP). A fulvestrant loading-dose (LD) regimen was used: 500 mg intramuscularly on day 0, 250 mg on days 14, 28, and 250 mg every 28 days thereafter. Exemestane 25 mg orally was administered once daily. Results A total of 693 women were randomly assigned to fulvestrant (n = 351) or exemestane ( n = 342). Approximately 60% of patients had received at least two prior endocrine therapies. Median TTP was 3.7 months in both groups ( hazard ratio = 0.963; 95% CI, 0.819 to 1.133; P = .6531). The overall response rate ( 7.4% v 6.7%; P = .736) and clinical benefit rate ( 32.2% v 31.5%; P = .853) were similar between fulvestrant and exemestane respectively. Median duration of clinical benefit was 9.3 and 8.3 months, respectively. Both treatments were well tolerated, with no significant differences in the incidence of adverse events or quality of life. Pharmacokinetic data confirm that steady-state was reached within 1 month with the LD schedule of fulvestrant. Conclusion Fulvestrant LD and exemestane are equally active and well-tolerated in a meaningful proportion of postmenopausal women with ABC who have experienced progression or recurrence during treatment with a nonsteroidal AI.

Use of Acoustic Doppler Sonography to Ascertain the Feasibility of the Pedicled Nasoseptal Flap After Prior Bilateral Sphenoidotomy

Objectives/Hypothesis: Blood supply to the Hadad-Bassagasteguy pedicled nasoseptal flap may be interrupted by surgery of the pterygopalatine fossa, posterior septectomy, or large sphenoidotomies. This would preclude its use for reconstruction of skull base defects after expanded endonasal approaches (EEA). We present a novel method to ascertain the patency of the nasoseptal artery after prior surgery, and consequently the availability of the nasoseptal flap, using acoustic Doppler sonography. Study Design: Retrospective clinical review. Methods: Four patients who underwent EEAs were evaluated intraoperatively with acoustic Doppler sonography. The mucosa that covers the inferior aspect of the rostrum of the sphenoid sinus was scanned with the tip of the probe. Reflection of sound waves representing intravascular blood flow was assessed. Results: In three patients, the artery was identified in at least one side. One remaining patient showed no acoustic signal suggesting loss of the nasoseptal artery bilaterally, therefore necessitating the use of a fat graft for the reconstruction. Conclusions: Acoustic Doppler sonography seems to be a feasible and effective way to ascertain the availability of the nasoseptal artery. It is a relatively inexpensive and simple technique that can be performed by any endoscopic surgeon.

Human choriogonadotropin prior to controlled ovarian stimulation and in vitro fertilization improves implantation, and pregnancy rates

Our purpose was to retrospectively compare controlled ovarian stimulation(COH) in IVF cycles with administration of hCG on the day of menses (D1-hCG) with women not receiving hCG at day 1 of menses (Control). Data on maternal age, endocrine profile, amount of rFSH required, embryo characteristics, implantation and pregnancy rates were recorded for comparison between D1-hCG (n = 36) and Control (n = 64). Dose of rFSH required to accomplish COH was significantly lower in D1-hCG. Following ICSI, more top-quality embryos were available for transfer per patient in the D1-hCG and biochemical pregnancy rates per transfer were significantly higher in the D1-hCG. Significantly higher implantation and on-going pregnancy rates per embryo transfer were observed in D1-hCG (64%) compared to Control (41%). Administration of D1-hCG prior to COH reduces rFSH use and enhances oocyte developmental competence to obtain top quality embryos, and improves implantation and on-going pregnancy rates. At present it is not clear if the benefit is related to producing an embryo that more likely to implant or a more receptive uterus, or merely fortuitous and related to the relatively small power of the study.