Predictable dividends and returns

The conventional wisdom is that the aggregate stock price is predictable by the lagged pricedividend ratio, and that aggregate dividends follow approximately a random-walk. Contrary to this belief, this paper finds that variation in the aggregate dividends and price-dividend ratio is related to changes in expected dividend growth. The inclusion of labor income in a cointegrated vector autoregression with prices and dividends allows the identification of predictable variation in dividends. Most of the variation in the price-dividend ratio is due to changes in expected returns, but this paper shows that part of variation is related to transitory dividend growth shocks. Moreover, most of the variation in dividend growth can be attributed to these temporary changes in dividends. I also show that the price-dividend ratio (or dividend yield) can be constructed as the sum of two distinct, but correlated, variables that separately predict dividend growth and returns. One of these components, which could be called the expected return state variable, predicts returns better than the price-dividend ratio does.

Heterogeneous multicore systems for signal processing

This thesis explores the capabilities of heterogeneous multi-core systems, based on multiple Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) in a standard desktop framework. Multi-GPU accelerated desk side computers are an appealing alternative to other high performance computing (HPC) systems: being composed of commodity hardware components fabricated in large quantities, their price-performance ratio is unparalleled in the world of high performance computing. Essentially bringing “supercomputing to the masses”, this opens up new possibilities for application fields where investing in HPC resources had been considered unfeasible before. One of these is the field of bioelectrical imaging, a class of medical imaging technologies that occupy a low-cost niche next to million-dollar systems like functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). In the scope of this work, several computational challenges encountered in bioelectrical imaging are tackled with this new kind of computing resource, striving to help these methods approach their true potential. Specifically, the following main contributions were made: Firstly, a novel dual-GPU implementation of parallel triangular matrix inversion (TMI) is presented, addressing an crucial kernel in computation of multi-mesh head models of encephalographic (EEG) source localization. This includes not only a highly efficient implementation of the routine itself achieving excellent speedups versus an optimized CPU implementation, but also a novel GPU-friendly compressed storage scheme for triangular matrices. Secondly, a scalable multi-GPU solver for non-hermitian linear systems was implemented. It is integrated into a simulation environment for electrical impedance tomography (EIT) that requires frequent solution of complex systems with millions of unknowns, a task that this solution can perform within seconds. In terms of computational throughput, it outperforms not only an highly optimized multi-CPU reference, but related GPU-based work as well. Finally, a GPU-accelerated graphical EEG real-time source localization software was implemented. Thanks to acceleration, it can meet real-time requirements in unpreceeded anatomical detail running more complex localization algorithms. Additionally, a novel implementation to extract anatomical priors from static Magnetic Resonance (MR) scansions has been included.

Heterogeneous Multi-core Architectures for High Performance Computing

This thesis deals with heterogeneous architectures in standard workstations. Heterogeneous architectures represent an appealing alternative to traditional supercomputers because they are based on commodity components fabricated in large quantities. Hence their price-performance ratio is unparalleled in the world of high performance computing (HPC). In particular, different aspects related to the performance and consumption of heterogeneous architectures have been explored. The thesis initially focuses on an efficient implementation of a parallel application, where the execution time is dominated by an high number of floating point instructions. Then the thesis touches the central problem of efficient management of power peaks in heterogeneous computing systems. Finally it discusses a memory-bounded problem, where the execution time is dominated by the memory latency. Specifically, the following main contributions have been carried out: A novel framework for the design and analysis of solar field for Central Receiver Systems (CRS) has been developed. The implementation based on desktop workstation equipped with multiple Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) is motivated by the need to have an accurate and fast simulation environment for studying mirror imperfection and non-planar geometries. Secondly, a power-aware scheduling algorithm on heterogeneous CPU-GPU architectures, based on an efficient distribution of the computing workload to the resources, has been realized. The scheduler manages the resources of several computing nodes with a view to reducing the peak power. The two main contributions of this work follow: the approach reduces the supply cost due to high peak power whilst having negligible impact on the parallelism of computational nodes. from another point of view the developed model allows designer to increase the number of cores without increasing the capacity of the power supply unit. Finally, an implementation for efficient graph exploration on reconfigurable architectures is presented. The purpose is to accelerate graph exploration, reducing the number of random memory accesses.

Flowback of solids through distribution plates of gas fluidized beds and associated phenomena

This work is concerned with a study of certain phenomena related to the performance and design of distributors in gas fluidized beds with particular regard to flowback of solid particles. The work to be described is divided into two parts. I. In Part one, a review of published material pertaining to distribution plates, including details from the patent specifications, has been prepared. After a chapter on the determination of the incipient fluidizing velocity, the following aspects of multi-orifice distributor plates in gas fluidized beds have been studied: (i) The effect of the distributor on bubble formation related to the way in which even distribution of bubbles on the top surface of the fluidized bed is obtained, e.g. the desirable pressure drop ratio ?PD/?PB for the even distribution of gas across the bed. Ratios of distributor pressure drop ?PD to bed pressure drop at which stable fluidization occurs show reasonable agreement with industrial practice. There is evidence that larger diameter beds tend to be less stable than smaller diameter beds when these are operated with shallow beds. Experiments show that in the presence of the bed the distributor pressure drop is reduced relative to the pressure drop without the bed, and this pressure drop in the former condition is regarded as the appropriate parameter for the design of the distributor. (ii) Experimental measurements of bubble distribution at the surface has been used to indicate maldistribution within the bed. Maldistribution is more likely at low gas flow rates and with distributors having large fractional free area characteristics (i.e. with distributors having low pressure drops). Bubble sizes obtained from this study, as well as those of others, have been successfully correlated. The correlation produced implies the existence of a bubble at the surface of an orifice and its growth by the addition of excess gas from the fluidized bed. (iii) For a given solid system, the amount of defluidized particles stagnating on the distributor plate is influenced by the orifice spacing, bed diameter and gas flow rate, but independent of the initial bed height and the way the orifices are arranged on the distributor plate. II. In Part two, solids flowback through single and multi-orifice distributors in two-dimensional and cylindrical beds of solids fluidized with air has been investigated. Distributors equipped with long cylindrical nozzles have also been included in the study. An equation for the prediction of free flowback of solids through multi-orifice distributors has been derived. Under fluidized conditions two regimes of flowback have been differentiated, namely Jumping and weeping. Data in the weeping regime have been successfully correlated. The limiting gas velocity through the distributor orifices at which flowback is completely excluded is found to be indepnndent of bed height, but a function of distributor design and physical properties of gas and solid used. A criterion for the prediction of this velocity has been established. The decisive advantage of increasing the distributor thickness or using nozzles to minimize solids flowback in fluidized beds has been observed and the opportunity taken to explore this poorly studied subject area. It has been noted, probably for the first time, that with long nozzles, there exists a critical nozzle length above which uncontrollable downflow of solids occurs. A theoretical model for predicting the critical length of a bundle of nozzles in terms of gas velocity through the nozzles has been set up. Theoretical calculations compared favourably with experiments.

Glass fibre-reinforced polyethylene composites in rotational moulding

Fibre-reinforced mouldings are of growing interest to the rotational moulding industry due to their outstanding price performance ratio. However, a particular problem that arises when using reinforcements in this process is that the process is low shear and good mixing of resin and reinforcement is not optimum under those conditions. There is also a problem of the larger/heavier reinforcing agents segregating out of the powder to lay up on the inner part surface. In this paper we report on studies to incorporate, short glass fibres into rotationally moulded parts. Four different approaches were investigated; direct addition of fibre in between two powder shots, addition of a layer of pre-compounded polyethylene-glass fibre pellets between two powder shots, addition of a layer of pre-compounded polyethylene-glass fibre powder between two powder shots and a single layer of glass-reinforced, pre-compounded powder. Results indicate that pre-compounding is necessary to gain performance enhancement and the single layer part made from glass-reinforced, pre-compounded powder exhibited the highest tensile and flexural modulus.

Between Bacchus and Dionysus: European Union policies on rural development: the cases of Nemea and Basto wine regions

A actividade vitivinícola possui um conjunto diverso de características presentes no solo, território e comunidade que fazem parte do património cultural de uma determinada região. Quando a tradição se traduz num conceito como terroir que é formado por características territoriais, sociais e culturais de uma região rural, o vinho apresenta uma “assinatura” que se escreve “naturalmente” no paladar regionalmente identificado. Os vinhos da Região de Nemea, na Grécia e de Basto (Região dos Vinhos Verdes) em Portugal, estão ambos sob a proteção dos regulamentos das Denominações de Origem. No entanto, apesar de ambos serem regulados por sistemas institucionais de certificação e controlo de qualidade, afigura-se a necessidade de questionar se o património cultural e a identidade territorial específica, “impressa” em ambos os terroirs, pode ser protegida num sentido mais abrangente do que apenas origem e qualidade. Em Nemea, a discussão entre os produtores diz respeito ao estabelecimento de sub-zonas, isto é incluir na regulação PDO uma diferente categorização territorial com base no terroir. Ou seja, para além de estar presente no rótulo a designação PDO, as garrafas incluirão ainda informação certificada sobre a área específica (dentro do mesmo terroir) onde o vinho foi produzido. A acontecer resultaria em diferentes status de qualidade de acordo com as diferentes aldeias de Nemea onde as vinhas estão localizadas. O que teria possíveis impactos no valor das propriedades e no uso dos solos. Para além disso, a não participação da Cooperativa de Nemea na SON (a associação local de produtores de vinho) e como tal na discussão principal sobre as mudanças e os desafios sobre o terroir de Nemea constitui um problema no sector vitivinícola de Nemea. Em primeiro lugar estabelece uma relação de não-comunicação entre os dois mais importantes agentes desse sector – as companhias vinícolas e a Cooperativa. Em segundo lugar porque constituiu uma possibilidade real, não só para os viticultores ficarem arredados dessa discussão, como também (porque não representados pela cooperativa) ficar impossibilitado um consenso sobre as mudanças discutidas. Isto poderá criar um ‘clima’ de desconfiança levando a discussão para ‘arenas’ deslocalizadas e como tal para decisões ‘desterritorializadas’ Em Basto, há vários produtores que começaram a vender a sua produção para distribuidoras localizadas externamente à sub-região de Basto, mas dentro da Região dos Vinhos Verdes, uma vez que essas companhias tem um melhor estatuto nacional e internacional e uma melhor rede de exportações. Isto está ainda relacionado com uma competição por uma melhor rede de contactos e status mais forte, tornando as discussões sobre estratégias comuns para o desenvolvimento rural e regional de Basto mais difícil de acontecer (sobre isto a palavra impossível foi constantemente usada durante as entrevistas com os produtores de vinho). A relação predominante entre produtores é caracterizada por relações individualistas. Contudo foi observado que essas posições são ainda caracterizadas por uma desconfiança no interior da rede interprofissional local: conflitos para conseguir os mesmos potenciais clientes; comprar uvas a viticultores com melhor rácio qualidade/preço; estratégias individuais para conseguir um melhor status político na relação com a Comissão dos Vinhos Verdes. Para além disso a inexistência de uma activa intermediação institucional (autoridades municipais e a Comissão de Vinho Verde), a inexistência entre os produtores de Basto de uma associação ou mesmo a inexistência de uma cooperativa local tem levado a região de Basto a uma posição de subpromoção nas estratégias de promoção do Vinho Verde em comparação com outras sub-regiões. É também evidente pelos resultados que as mudanças no sector vitivinícolas na região de Basto têm sido estimuladas de fora da região (em resposta também às necessidades dos mercados internacionais) e raramente de dentro – mais uma vez, ‘arenas’ não localizadas e como tal decisões desterritorializadas. Nesse sentido, toda essa discussão e planeamento estratégico, terão um papel vital na preservação da identidade localizada do terroir perante os riscos de descaracterização e desterritorialização. Em suma, para ambos os casos, um dos maiores desafios parece ser como preservar o terroir vitivinícola e como tal o seu carácter e identidade local, quando a rede interprofissional em ambas as regiões se caracteriza, tanto por relações não-consensuais em Nemea como pelo modus operandi de isolamento sem comunicação em Basto. Como tal há uma necessidade de envolvimento entre os diversos agentes e as autoridades locais no sentido de uma rede localizada de governança. Assim sendo, em ambas as regiões, a existência dessa rede é essencial para prevenir os efeitos negativos na identidade do produto e na sua produção. Uma estratégia de planeamento integrado para o sector será vital para preservar essa identidade, prevenindo a sua desterritorialização através de uma restruturação do conhecimento tradicional em simultâneo com a democratização do acesso ao conhecimento das técnicas modernas de produção vitivinícola.

Predicción de volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado del azúcar y su aplicación en la razón de cobertura

Este trabajo predice la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del precio del azúcar, en el período compren­dido entre 1 de junio de 2011 y el 24 de octubre de 2013. Los datos diarios utilizados fueron los precios del azúcar, del etanol y la tasa de cambio de la moneda de Brasil (Real) en dólares. Se usaron modelos multivariados de volatilidad autoregresiva condicional generalizada. A partir de la predicción de los precios del azúcar se calcula la razón de cobertura de mínima varianza. Los resultados muestran, que la razón de cobertura es 0.37, esto significa que, si un productor adverso al riesgo, que tiene la intención de eliminar un porcentaje de la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado mundial del azúcar, y espera vender 25 contratos de azúcar, cada uno de ellos de 50,84 toneladas (1.271 toneladas), el número de contratos optimo tomando cobertura a futuro será 9 y el número de contratos sin tomar cobertura (de contado) será 16.

Size anomalies in EU bank stock returns

Mestrado em Finanças

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Experimental assessment of pressure drop in air stripping columns

One important step in the design of air stripping operations for the removal of VOC is the choice of operating conditions, which are based in the phase ratio. This parameter sets on directly the stripping factor and the efficiency of the operation. Its value has an upper limit determined by the flooding regime, which is previewed using empirical correlations, namely the one developed by Eckert. This type of approach is not suitable for the development of algorithms. Using a pilot scale column and a convenient solution, the pressure drop was determined in different operating conditions and the experimental values were compared with the estimations. This particular research will be incorporated in a global model for simulating the dynamics of air stripping using a multi variable distributed parameter system.

Design and development of a microfluidic platform for use with colorimetric gold nanoprobe assays

Due to the importance and wide applications of the DNA analysis, there is a need to make genetic analysis more available and more affordable. As such, the aim of this PhD thesis is to optimize a colorimetric DNA biosensor based on gold nanoprobes developed in CEMOP by reducing its price and the needed volume of solution without compromising the device sensitivity and reliability, towards the point of care use. Firstly, the price of the biosensor was decreased by replacing the silicon photodetector by a low cost, solution processed TiO2 photodetector. To further reduce the photodetector price, a novel fabrication method was developed: a cost-effective inkjet printing technology that enabled to increase TiO2 surface area. Secondly, the DNA biosensor was optimized by means of microfluidics that offer advantages of miniaturization, much lower sample/reagents consumption, enhanced system performance and functionality by integrating different components. In the developed microfluidic platform, the optical path length was extended by detecting along the channel and the light was transmitted by optical fibres enabling to guide the light very close to the analysed solution. Microfluidic chip of high aspect ratio (~13), smooth and nearly vertical sidewalls was fabricated in PDMS using a SU-8 mould for patterning. The platform coupled to the gold nanoprobe assay enabled detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis using 3 8l on DNA solution, i.e. 20 times less than in the previous state-of-the-art. Subsequently, the bio-microfluidic platform was optimized in terms of cost, electrical signal processing and sensitivity to colour variation, yielding 160% improvement of colorimetric AuNPs analysis. Planar microlenses were incorporated to converge light into the sample and then to the output fibre core increasing 6 times the signal-to-losses ratio. The optimized platform enabled detection of single nucleotide polymorphism related with obesity risk (FTO) using target DNA concentration below the limit of detection of the conventionally used microplate reader (i.e. 15 ng/μl) with 10 times lower solution volume (3 μl). The combination of the unique optical properties of gold nanoprobes with microfluidic platform resulted in sensitive and accurate sensor for single nucleotide polymorphism detection operating using small volumes of solutions and without the need for substrate functionalization or sophisticated instrumentation. Simultaneously, to enable on chip reagents mixing, a PDMS micromixer was developed and optimized for the highest efficiency, low pressure drop and short mixing length. The optimized device shows 80% of mixing efficiency at Re = 0.1 in 2.5 mm long mixer with the pressure drop of 6 Pa, satisfying requirements for the application in the microfluidic platform for DNA analysis.

Effects of competition over quality-adjusted price indexes: an application to the Spanish automobile market

Using a newly constructed data set, we calculate quality-adjusted price indexes after estimating hedonic price regressions from 1988 to 2004 in the Spanish automobile market. The increasing competition was favoured by the removal of trade restrictions and the special plans for the renewal of the Spanish automobile fleet. We find that the increasing degree of competition during those years led to an overall drop in automobile prices by 20 percent which implied considerable consumer gains thanks to higher market efficiency. Additionally, our results indicate that loyalty relevance and discrepancies in automobile reliability declined during those years. This is captured.

What drives urban consumption in mainland china? The role of property price dynamics

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.