A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

Predictors of Lethality in Severe Leptospirosis in Urban Brazil

To ascertain prognostic factors associated with fatal outcomes in severe leptospirosis, a retrospective case-control study was done using population-based surveillance data. Centralized death certificate reporting of leptospirosis mortality was combined with details of patients` hospitalizations, which were obtained from hospitals representing all sectors of Sao Paulo city. Among identified leptospirosis cases, 89 lethal cases and 281 survivor cases were analyzed. Predictors of death included age > 40 years, development of oliguria, platelet count < 70,000/mu L, creatinine > 3 mg/dL. and pulmonary involvement. The latter was the strongest risk Factor with all estimated odds ratio of 6.0 (95% confidence interval: 3.0-12.0). Serologic findings with highest titer against Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni did not show significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Lung involvement was an important predictor of death in leptospirosis in Sao Paulo, of relevance in leptospirosis-endemic regions where this complication is common.

SINGLE MEASUREMENTS OF C-REACTIVE PROTEIN AND DISEASE ACTIVITY SCORES ARE NOT PREDICTORS OF CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENTS

Background: Although inflammation has a defined role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, the link between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) parameters of disease activity and atherosclerotic findings are not defined. Objective: To investigate the association between subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and clinical/laboratorial parameters of RA systemic inflammatory activity. Methods: Seventy-one RA patients were consecutively selected and compared to 53 healthy controls. Smoking, diabetes and hypertension were excluded, as well as the use of statins or fibrates. B-mode carotid ultrasound was performed in all subjects. CRP, ESR and fibrinogen were determined in both groups. Clinical assessment of RA activity included DAS 28 and SDAI. Correlation between plaques and intima-media thickness (IMT) of common carotid arteries and inflammatory parameters was evaluated. Results: Carotid plaques were more prevalent in RA patients than in controls (14.1% vs. 1.9 %, p=0.02) and marginally increased IMT was observed (0.72 +/- 0.17 vs. 0.67 +/- 0.15mm, p=0.07). RA patients with plaques had older age (p=0.001) and increased IMT (p<0.001), but low SDAI (p=0.025) compared to those without plaques. RA patients with plaques had also longer disease duration, although this difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.06). No significant correlations were found between IMT and ESR (p=0.80), CRP (p=0.75), fibrinogen (p=0.94), HAQ (p=0.89) and DAS 28 (p=0.13). Conclusions: Carotid atherosclerosis is more frequently detected in RA but its prevalence was not correlated with isolated inflammatory markers measurement or noncumulative activity scores. These findings reinforce the need to evaluate subclinical atherosclerosis in RA patients, and to find predictors of atherosclerotic lesions.

Predictors of Bothrops jararaca venom allergy in snake handlers and snake venom handlers

Since allergic sensitization to snake venom has been reported, anaphylactic reactions to snake venom might be an underestimated factor contributing to fatal snakebites, independently from the toxicity of the venom itself. However, little information is available on the determinants of such reaction. Hence, we studied a group of workers exposed to Bothrops jararaca venom (BJV), in order to clarify the factors related with snake venom allergy. The aim of this work was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of venom allergy among workers exposed to BJV and to confirm the involvement of IgE-mediated mechanisms in this condition. Workers exposed to BJV were assessed for venom allergy using questionnaires and immunological tests. The presence of BJV sensitization was determined through quantification of specific IgE. Allergens were studied using the Western blots and inhibition assays. Of the 67 workers evaluated, 7 (10.4%) presented specific IgE antibodies to BJV. Of those, 6 presented typical symptoms of an IgE-mediated allergic reaction when exposed to BJV. Venom sensitization was associated with length of employment (P = 0.042), high levels of total IgE (P = 0.034), atopy (P = 0.051), and specific tasks, primarily the handling of dried venom (P = 0.014). Our observations suggest that exposure to BJV can result in allergic sensitization in snake handlers through IgE-mediated mechanisms. The prevalence rate of this condition appears to be high among these workers, and the handling of dried venom, total IgE level above 100 kU/L, length of employment, and probably history of atopy were predictors of its occurrence. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Echocardiographic predictors of functional capacity in endomyocardial fibrosis patients

Endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF) is a restrictive cardiomyopathy manifested mainly by diastolic heart failure. It is recognized that diastole is an important determinant of exercise capacity. The purpose of this study was to determine whether resting echocardiographic parameters might predict oxygen consumption (VO(2p)) by ergoespirometry and the prognostic role of functional capacity in EMF patients. A total of 32 patients with biventricular EMF (29 women, 55.3 +/- 11.4 years) were studied by echocardiography and ergoespirometry. The relationship between the echocardiographic indexes and the percentage of predicted VO(2p) (%VO(2p)) was investigated by the `stepwise` linear regression analysis. The median VO(2p) was 11 +/- 3 mL/kg/min and the %VO(2p) was 53 +/- 9%. There was a correlation of %VO(2p) with an average of A` at four sites of the mitral annulus (A` peak, r = 0.471, P = 0.023), E`/A` of the inferior mitral annulus (r = -0.433, P = 0.044), and myocardial performance index (r = -0.352, P = 0.048). On multiple regression analysis, only A` peak was an independent predictor of %VO(2p) (%VO(2p)= 26.34 + 332.44 x A` peak). EMF patients with %VO(2p)< 53% had an increased mortality rate with a relative risk of 8.47. In EMF patients, diastolic function plays an important role in determining the limitations to exercise and %VO(2p) has a prognostic value.

Predictors of higher number of stages in Mohs micrographic surgery for the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma of the head

BACKGROUND - Squamous cell carcinomas of the skin of the bead are better treated with Mobs micrographic surgery which has the lowest recurrence rates and allows spare normal tissue. There are some characteristics of squamous cell carcinoma that can be related to a higher number of surgical stages. OBJECTIVE - To study characteristic of head squamous cell carcinoma that predicts a higher number of Mohs surgical stages. METHODS - A retrospective analysis of 51 squamous cell carcinomas of the bead treated with Mobs surgery was performed to determine risk factors for a higher number of surgical stages. The characteristics analyzed were clinical limits, morphology, recurrence, histological differentiation and size and compared to the number of surgical stages. The analysis was performed by Fisher`s exact test and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS - The recurrent squamous cell carcinomas showed a tendency for a higher number of stages (p=0,081). The Odds Ratio for a higher number of Mobs stages was three for inaccurate limits; although not statistically significant, it corroborates clinical and previous publication. CONCLUSION - Clinical characteristics of squamous cell carcinoma as recurrence and inaccurate limits would not predict, but could indicate tendency of a higher number of Mobs micrographic surgery stages.

CYP1A2*1C, CYP2E1*5B, and GSTM1 polymorphisms are predictors of risk and poor outcome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is associated with environmental factors, especially tobacco and alcohol consumption. Most of the carcinogens present in tobacco smoke are converted into DNA-reactive metabolites by cytochrome P450 (CYPs) enzymes and detoxification of these substances is performed by glutathione S-transferases (GSTs). It has been suggested that genetic alterations, such as polymorphisms, play an important role in tumorigenesis and HNSCC progression. The aim of this study was to investigate CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP2E1, GSTM1, and GSTT1 polymorphisms as risk factors in HNSCC and their association with clinicopathologic data. The patients comprised 153 individuals with HNSCC (cases) and 145 with no current or previous diagnosis of cancer (controls). Genotyping of the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the CYP1A1, CYP1A2, and CYP2E1 genes was performed by PCR-RFLP and the GSTM1 and GSTT1 copy number polymorphisms (CNPs) were analyzed by PCR-multiplex. As expected, a significant difference was detected for tobacco and alcohol consumption between cases and controls (P < 0.001). It was observed that the CYP1A2*1D (OR = 16.24) variant and GSTM1 null alleles (OR = 0.02) confer increased risk of HNSCC development (P < 0.001). In addition, head and neck cancer alcohol consumers were more frequently associated with the CYP2E1*5B variant allele than control alcohol users (P < 0.0001, OR = 190.6). The CYP1A2*1C polymorphism was associated with tumor recurrence (log-rank test, P = 0.0161). The CYP2E1*5B and GSTM1 null alleles were significantly associated with advanced clinical stages (T3 + T4; P = 0.022 and P = 0.028, respectively). Overall, the findings suggested that the genetic polymorphisms studied are predictors of risk and are also associated with tumor recurrence, since they are important for determining the parameters associated with tumor progression and poor outcomes in HNSCC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dyslipidemia in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: incidence, pattern and predictors

One hundred forty-two women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) with an average body mass index (BMI) of 29.1 kg/m(2) and average age of 25.12 years were studied. By BMI, 30.2% were normal, 38.0% were overweight and 31.6% were obese. Thirty-one eumenorrheic women matched for BMI and age, with no evidence of hyperandrogenism, were recruited as controls. The incidence of dyslipidemia in the PCOS group was twice that of the Control group (76.1% versus 32.25%). The most frequent abnormalities were low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C; 57.6%) and high triglyceride (TG) (28.3%). HDL-C was significantly lower in all subgroups of women with PCOS when compared to the subgroups of normal women. No significant differences were seen in the total cholesterol (p = 0.307), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C; p = 0.283) and TGs (p = 0.113) levels among the subgroups. An independent effect on HDL-C was detected for glucose (p = 0.004) and fasting insulin (p = 0.01); on TG for age (p = 0.003) and homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (p = 0.03) and on total cholesterol and LDL-C for age (p = 0.02 and p = 0.033, respectively). In conclusion, dyslipidemia is common in women with PCOS, mainly due to low HDL-C levels. BMI has a significant impact on this abnormality.

Nodules Less Than 20 mm and Vascular Invasion are Predictors of Survival in Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: The aims of this study were to analyze the overall survival of patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identify independent pretreatment predictors of survival in Brazil. Methods: Between 1998 and 2003, 74 patients with cirrhosis and small HCC were evaluated. Predictors of survival were identified using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the Cox model. Results: The overall survival rates were 80%, 41%, and 17% at 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively. The mean length of follow-up after HCC diagnosis was 23 months (median 22 mo, range: I to 86 mo) for the entire group. Univariate analysis showed that model for endstage liver disease (MELD) score (P = 0.016), Child-Pugh classification (P = 0.007), alpha-fetoprotein level (P = 0.006), number of nodules (P = 0.041), tumor diameter (P = 0.009), and vascular invasion (P < 0.0001) were significant predictors Of Survival. Cox regression analysis identified vascular invasion (relative risk = 14.60, confidence interval 95% = 3.3-64.56, P < 0.001) and tumor size > 20 mm (relative risk = 2.14, confidence interval 95% = 1.07-4.2, P = 0.030) as independent predictors of decreased survival. Treatment of HCC was related to increased overall survival. Conclusions: Identification of HCC smaller than 20 mm is associated with longer survival. Presence of vascular invasion, even in small tumors, maybe associated with poor prognosis. Treatment of small tumors Of LIP to 20 mm diameter is related to increased survival.

Characteristics and Predictors of Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Patients With Systemic Hypertension

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a secondary cause of hypertension and independently associated with target-organ damage in hypertensive patients. However, OSA remains largely underdiagnosed and undertreated. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the characteristics and clinical predictors of OSA in a consecutive series of patients followed up in a hypertension unit. A total of 99 patients (age 46 +/- 11 years, body mass index 28.8 kg/m(2), range 25.1 to 32.9) underwent polysomnography. The clinical parameters included age, gender, obesity, daytime sleepiness, snoring, Berlin Questionnaire, resistant hypertension, and metabolic syndrome. Of the 99 patients, 55 (56%) had OSA (apnea-hypopnea index >5 events/hour). Patients with OSA were older and more obese, had greater levels of blood pressure, and presented with more diabetes, dyslipidemia, resistant hypenension, and metabolic syndrome than the patients without OSA. Of the patients with OSA, 51% had no excessive daytime sleepiness. The Berlin Questionnaire and patient age revealed a high sensitivity (0.93 and 0.91, respectively) but low specificity (0.59 and 0.48, respectively), and obesity and resistant hypertension revealed a low sensitivity (0.58 and 0.44, respectively) but high specificity (0.75 and 0.91, respectively) for OSA. Metabolic syndrome was associated with high sensitivity and specificity for OSA (0.86 and 0.85, respectively). Multiple regression analysis showed that age of 40 to 70 years (odds ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.16), a high risk of OSA on the Berlin Questionnaire (odds ratio 8.36, 95% confidence interval 1.67 to 41.85), and metabolic syndrome (odds ratio 19.04, 95% confidence interval 5.25 to 69.03) were independent variables associated with OSA. In conclusion, more important than the typical clinical features that characterize OSA, including snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness, the presence of the metabolic syndrome is as an important marker of OSA among patients with hypertension. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2010;105:1135-1139)

Autoantibodies as predictors of biological therapy for early rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: The association between serological markers with the need of biological therapy for early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) is not known, with few available data addressing this question. Objectives: To prospectively evaluate a cohort of patients with ERA (less than 12 months of symptoms) in order to determine the possible association between serological markers (rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), and citrullinated anti-vimentin (anti-Sa) with parameters of therapeutic outcome (this later defined by the need of introducing biological therapy). Patients and methods: Forty patients with early RA were evaluated at the time of diagnosis and have been followed for 3 years, in use of standardized therapeutic treatment. Demographic and clinical data were recorded, as well as serology tests (ELISA) for RF (IgM, IgG and IgA), anti-CCP (CCP2, CCP3 and CCP3.1) and anti-Sa in the initial evaluation and at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months of follow-up. As outcomes of the RA development, the need or not for biological therapy during the follow-up period were considered. Comparisons were made through the Student t test, mixed-effects regression analysis and analysis of variance (significance level of 5%). Results: The mean age was 45 (+/- 12) years; a female predominance was observed (90%). At the time of diagnosis, RF was observed in 50% of cases (RF IgA - 42%, RF IgG - 30% and RF IgM - 50%), anti-CCP in 50% (no difference between CCP2, CCP3 and CCP3. 1) and anti-Sa in 10%. After 3 years, no change in the RF prevalence neither in the anti-CCP was observed, but the anti-Sa increased to 17.5% (p = 0.001). Biological therapy was necessary in 22.5% of patients. The mean RF IgA and anti-CCP 2 levels during the 3 years were higher among patients who needed biological therapy (p <0.05 for both). Conclusion: Higher titles of RF and anti-CCP over time were associated with the need for biological therapy.