Accuracy of in vivo coronary plaque morphology assessment: a validation study of in vivo virtual histology compared with in vitro histopathology

OBJECTIVES: The goal of the present study was to compare the accuracy of in vivo tissue characterization obtained by intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) radiofrequency (RF) data analysis, known as Virtual Histology (VH), to the in vitro histopathology of coronary atherosclerotic plaques obtained by directional coronary atherectomy. BACKGROUND: Vulnerable plaque leading to acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has been associated with specific plaque composition, and its characterization is an important clinical focus. METHODS: Virtual histology IVUS images were performed before and after a single debulking cut using directional coronary atherectomy. Debulking region of in vivo histology image was predicted by comparing pre- and post-debulking VH images. Analysis of VH images with the corresponding tissue cross section was performed. RESULTS: Fifteen stable angina pectoris (AP) and 15 ACS patients were enrolled. The results of IVUS RF data analysis correlated well with histopathologic examination (predictive accuracy from all patients data: 87.1% for fibrous, 87.1% for fibro-fatty, 88.3% for necrotic core, and 96.5% for dense calcium regions, respectively). In addition, the frequency of necrotic core was significantly higher in the ACS group than in the stable AP group (in vitro histopathology: 22.6% vs. 12.6%, p = 0.02; in vivo virtual histology: 24.5% vs. 10.4%, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Correlation of in vivo IVUS RF data analysis with histopathology shows a high accuracy. In vivo IVUS RF data analysis is a useful modality for the classification of different types of coronary components, and may play an important role in the detection of vulnerable plaque.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.

Kernel machines for epilepsy diagnosis via EEG signal classification: A comparative study

Objective: We carry out a systematic assessment on a suite of kernel-based learning machines while coping with the task of epilepsy diagnosis through automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) signal classification. Methods and materials: The kernel machines investigated include the standard support vector machine (SVM), the least squares SVM, the Lagrangian SVM, the smooth SVM, the proximal SVM, and the relevance vector machine. An extensive series of experiments was conducted on publicly available data, whose clinical EEG recordings were obtained from five normal subjects and five epileptic patients. The performance levels delivered by the different kernel machines are contrasted in terms of the criteria of predictive accuracy, sensitivity to the kernel function/parameter value, and sensitivity to the type of features extracted from the signal. For this purpose, 26 values for the kernel parameter (radius) of two well-known kernel functions (namely. Gaussian and exponential radial basis functions) were considered as well as 21 types of features extracted from the EEG signal, including statistical values derived from the discrete wavelet transform, Lyapunov exponents, and combinations thereof. Results: We first quantitatively assess the impact of the choice of the wavelet basis on the quality of the features extracted. Four wavelet basis functions were considered in this study. Then, we provide the average accuracy (i.e., cross-validation error) values delivered by 252 kernel machine configurations; in particular, 40%/35% of the best-calibrated models of the standard and least squares SVMs reached 100% accuracy rate for the two kernel functions considered. Moreover, we show the sensitivity profiles exhibited by a large sample of the configurations whereby one can visually inspect their levels of sensitiveness to the type of feature and to the kernel function/parameter value. Conclusions: Overall, the results evidence that all kernel machines are competitive in terms of accuracy, with the standard and least squares SVMs prevailing more consistently. Moreover, the choice of the kernel function and parameter value as well as the choice of the feature extractor are critical decisions to be taken, albeit the choice of the wavelet family seems not to be so relevant. Also, the statistical values calculated over the Lyapunov exponents were good sources of signal representation, but not as informative as their wavelet counterparts. Finally, a typical sensitivity profile has emerged among all types of machines, involving some regions of stability separated by zones of sharp variation, with some kernel parameter values clearly associated with better accuracy rates (zones of optimality). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

Combination of Multiple Molecular Markers Can Improve Prognostication in Patients With Locally Advanced and Lymph Node Positive Bladder Cancer

Purpose: We tested whether the combination of 4 established cell cycle regulators (p53, pRB, p21 and p27) could improve the ability to predict clinical outcomes in a large multi-institutional collaboration of patients with pT3-4N0 or pTany Npositive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. We also assessed whether the combination of molecular markers is superior to any individual biomarker. Materials and Methods: The study comprised 692 patients with pT3-4N0 or pTany Npositive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder treated with radical cystectomy and bilateral lymphadenectomy (median followup 5.3 years). Scoring was performed using advanced cell imaging and color detection software. The base model incorporated patient age, gender, stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion, number of lymph nodes removed, number of positive lymph nodes, concomitant carcinoma in situ and adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Individual molecular markers did not improve the predictive accuracy for disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality. Combination of all 4 molecular markers into number of altered molecular markers resulted in significantly 1 higher predictive accuracy than any single biomarker (p < 0.001.). Moreover addition of number of altered molecular markers to the base model significantly improved the predictive accuracy for disease recurrence (3.9%, p < 0.001) and cancer specific mortality (4.3%, p < 0.001). Addition of number of altered molecular markers retained statistical significance for improving the prediction of clinical outcomes in the subgroup of patients with pT3N0 (280), pT4N0 (83) and pTany Npositive (329) disease (p < 0.001). Conclusions: While the status of individual molecular markers does not add sufficient value to outcome prediction in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma of the bladder, combinations of molecular markers may improve molecular staging, prognostication and possibly prediction of response to therapy.

Monitorização da insuficiência cardíaca por parâmetros fisiológicos em portadores de cardioversor-desfibrilhador implantável e/ou sistema de ressincronização cardíaca: HF-PREDICT

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular. Área de especialização: Intervenção Cardiovascular.

Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Carotid Plaques Improves Prediction of Obstructive Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Women

Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Caracterização da aterosclerose sub-clínica e doença coronária em doentes com síndrome metabólica e diabetes mellitus

RESUMO- Introdução: A obesidade e a Síndrome Metabólica (SM) são atualmente um importante problema de saúde pública, com prevalências crescentes, que se acompanham também por aumento da prevalência de Diabetes Mellitus (DM).Estudos prévios demonstram associação destas entidades com o aumento de risco de eventos cardiovasculares, em particular a DM. A SM tem sido uma entidade muito debatida nos últimos anos, com aparecimento de diversas definições, contribuindo para resultados díspares no que diz respeito à influência da SM nas doenças cardiovasculares. Também têm sido descritas variações étnicas e regionais. Para além de alguns estudos epidemiológicos na população geral, a informação relativamente à sua influência na presença de doença cardiovascular é desconhecida em Portugal, em particular em populações com suspeita de doença coronária. Objetivos - Esclarecimento de questões relacionadas com a prevalência de SM e a sua influência na evolução de doença ateroclerótica arterial por avaliação de uma população com suspeita de doença coronária. População e Métodos - Estudo observacional, transversal, com inclusão prospetiva de indivíduos admitidos letivamente para realização de angiografia coronária por suspeita de doença coronária, tendo sido também efetuadas análises laboratoriais e ecografia carotidea para avaliação da espessura intima-média carotidea (EIMc) e da presença de placas carotídeas. Efetuou-se avaliação dos parâmetros demográficos, antropométricos, determinação do perfil lipídico, glicémia e insulinémia. Os exames angiográficos foram analisados por análise quantitativa semi-automática. Foram excluídos indivíduos com antecedentes conhecidos de doença cardíaca. Resultados - Incluíram-se 300 doentes, com idade média de 64 ± 9 anos, 59% do género masculino. A prevalência de SM de acordo com a definição da AHA/NHLBI foi 48,4% (ajustada para idade e género da população portuguesa) e a prevalência de DM foi 14,8% (ajustada). A concordância global das três definições mais recentes de SM foi de apenas 43%. A prevalência de SM aumenta com a idade e é também mais elevada no género feminino. O componente mais frequente foi a hipertensão arterial, seguido pela obesidade abdominal, a elevação da glicémia e por fim as alterações dos triglicéridos e do colesterol HDL. Por outro lado, a presença de doença coronária significativa (lesões ≥50%) ocorreu em apenas 51,3% dos doentes, sendo ainda mais baixa no género feminino. Demonstrou-se também uma baixa capacidade preditiva para doença coronária dos testes não invasivos clássicos, em particular no género feminino. A prevalência de doença coronária significativa foi idêntica nos indivíduos com SM comparativamente com indivíduos sem alterações metabólicas (46,3% vs. 48,2%, respectivamente), sendo mais elevado nos diabéticos (65,2%). Os fatores predizentes independentes de doença coronária significativa foram a idade, o género masculino, a elevação da glicémia e dos triglicéridos. Pelo contrário, o Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC) mostrou uma associação protetora relativamente à presença de doença coronária. A SM não é fator predizente de doença coronária. Relativamente às dimensões dos vasos coronários, o IMC correlaciona-se positivamente e a glicémia / DM correlacionam-se negativamente. A EIMc aumenta com o aumento da idade e no género masculino. A EIMc foi intermédia nos doentes com SM (0,88 ± 0,31 mm) comparativamente com os doentes diabéticos (0,97 ± 0,34 mm) e os indivíduos “Normais” (0,85 ± 0,34 mm). Os fatores predizentes independentes de EIMc foram a idade, o género masculino, o colesterol HDL e a insulinémia. A EIMc permite predizer com uma acuidade moderada a presença de doença coronária significativa (AUC 0,638), em particular no género feminino, sendo um fator predizente independente de presença de doença coronária (OR 2,35, IC 95% 1,04-5,33. p=0,04). Apesar de não se correlacionar com o número de vasos coronários com doença, correlacionou-se com a gravidade da doença (pelo score de Gensini). A insulinémia e o índice HOMA aumentam diretamente com a idade e com o IMC, sendo contudo sobreponíveis em ambos os géneros. Os fatores predizentes de índice HOMA (resistência à insulina) foram o IMC, bem como os restantes componentes de SM, estando o índice HOMA relacionado com a presença de SM e o número dos seus componentes presentes. O limiar para resistência à insulina foi de 2,66 e para SM foi 2,41. Ao contrário das restantes definições de SM, a definição da AHA/NHLBI não é predizente da presença de DM no género masculino. A associação da resistência à insulina com doença coronária foi limiar (OR 1,13, IC 95% 1,00-1,28, p=0,045). Conclusões - Numa população com suspeita de doença coronária, a prevalência de SM é muito elevada (superior a 50%), sendo a prevalência de DM de 23%. Também a obesidade e o excesso de peso foram extremamente prevalentes nesta população. A concordância entre definições de SM é baixa. A hipertensão arterial e a obesidade abdominal são os componentes mais frequentes de SM, sendo menos prevalentes as alterações lipídicas. Pelo contrário, a presença de doença coronária significativa foi muito baixa, em particular nas mulheres. A SM não se associou à presença de doença coronária significativa, estando esta mais dependente das alterações do metabolismo glicídico e dos triglicéridos, bem como de outros fatores de risco não modificáveis, nomeadamente a idade e o género. A EIMc da carótida comum e a presença de placas carotídeas é mais elevada nos indivíduos diabéticos, estando também ligeiramente aumentada nos doentes com SM, sendo os fatores predizentes de EIMc apenas a idade, o género, a hiperinsulinémia bem como os níveis baixos de colesterol HDL. A utilização da avaliação da EIMc na estratificação de risco pré-angiografia coronária, poderá ser útil no género feminino. A hiperinsulinémia e o índice HOMA (índice de resistência à insulina), estão relacionados com o IMC e consequentemente com a presença de obesidade, embora também se correlacione de forma independente com os outros componentes de SM. A resistência à insulina associou-se à presença de SM. Relativamente à capacidade preditiva da coexistência com DM, verificou-se associação com a definição da NCEP-ATP III e da IDF, contudo, a definição da AHA/NHLBI só foi predizente de DMnas mulheres. -------------ABSTRACT - Introduction: Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome (MS) are a major public health problem, with increasing prevalence, that follows the increase in diabetes prevalence. Previous studies showed an association of both entities with increased cardiovascular risk, particularly diabetes. MS has been debated in the last few years, with several definitions and different results when analysed the influence of MS on cardiovascular diseases. There are also some regional and ethnical variations. Beyond general population epidemiological studies, information about the influence on cardiovascular disease in Portugal is unknown, particularly in patients with suspected coronary disease. Objectives- To clarify several questions regarding the prevalence of MS and the influence in arterial atherosclerotic disease by evaluation of a population with suspected coronary artery disease. Population and Methods- Observational, cross-sectional study with prospective inclusion of individuals admitted electively for coronary angiography with suspicion of coronary artery disease. All individuals also performed laboratorial evaluation and carotid ultrasound to evaluate carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaques. We also evaluated demographic, anthropometric parameters, lipid profile, blood glucose and blood insulin. Angiographic data was obtained by semi-automated quantitation. Individuals with previously known cardiac history were excluded from the study. Results- We included 300 individuals with a mean age of 64 ± 9 years, 59% males. MS prevalence according to AHA/NHLBI definition was 48.4% (adjusted for age and gender of the Portuguese population) and the adjusted prevalence of diabetes was 14.8%. Global agreement between the more recent three definitions of MS was only 43%. MS prevalence increases with age and is also higher in women. The most frequent components were hypertension and abdominal obesity, followed by elevated glucose and triglicerides and low HDL-cholesterol. Significant coronary artery disease (stenosis ≥50%) was present in only 51.3% of patients, being lower in females. Non-invasive tests also had a low predictive capacity, particularly in females. The prevalence of significant coronary disease was identical in patients with MS compared with normal metabolism individuals (46.3% vs. 48.2%, respectively), being higher in diabetics (65.2%). Independent predictive factors for coronary disease were age, male gender, high blood glucose and triglycerides. On the contrary, Body Mass Index (BMI) was a protective factor for coronary disease. MS wasn’t a predictor of coronary disease. BMI showed a positive correlation with coronary vessel diameter and glucose /diabetes had a negative correlation. CIMT increased with age and was higher in males. CIMT was intermediate in patients with MS (0.88 ± 0.31 mm) when compared to diabetic patients (0.97 ± 0.34 mm) and “Normal” individuals (0.85 ± 0.34 mm). Independent predictors for cIMT were age, male gender, HDL-cholesterol and insulin. CIMT had a moderate predictive accuracy for coronary disease (AUC 0,638), particularly in females and is an independent predictor of the presence of significant coronary disease (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.04-5.33. p=0.04). Although it did not correlate with the number of diseased coronary arteries, it correlated with coronary disease severity by the Gensini score. Insulin and HOMA index increase directly with age and BMI, but were identical in both genders. Predictive factors for HOMA index (insulin resistance) were BMI as well as the other MS components. HOMA index is related to MS and the number of its components. The cut-off for insulin resistance was 2.66 and for MS 2.41. Unlike other MS definitions, AHA/NHLBI definition is not a predictor of diabetes in males. There was a borderline association between insulin resistance and coronary disease (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.00-1.28, p=0.045). Conclusions - In a population of patients with suspected coronary disease, MS prevalence is extremely high (above 50%) with a diabetes prevalence of 23%. Also obesity and overweight are very prevalent in this population. Global agreement between MS definitions is however low. Hypertension and abdominal obesity are the most frequent components, with a lower prevalence of lipid abnormalities. Coronary disease prevalence was low, particularly in women. MS wasn’t associated with coronary disease. Coronary disease was related to glucose and triglycerides, as well as with other non-modifiable factors such as age and gender. CIMT and carotid plaques are increased in diabetic patients, and also slightly elevated in patients with MS, but cIMT independent predictors were age, male gender, insulin and HDLcholesterol. CIMT can be useful in risk stratification before coronary angiography particularly in women. Elevated insulin and HOMA index (an insulin resistance index) are related with BMI and consequently with obesity, and it was also correlated with other MS components. Insulin resistance was associated with MS. The presence of diabetes was associated with the presence of MS by NCEP-ATP III and IDF definitions; however, AHA/NHLBI definition was only predictive of diabetes in females.

Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental data

Programa Doutoral em Matemática e Aplicações.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Acute Damage to the Posterior Limb of the Internal Capsule on Diffusion Tensor Tractography as an Early Imaging Predictor of Motor Outcome after Stroke

Background and Purpose Early prediction of motor outcome is of interest in stroke management. We aimed to determine whether lesion location at DTT is predictive of motor outcome after acute stroke and whether this information improves the predictive accuracy of the clinical scores. Methods We evaluated 60 consecutive patients within 12 hours of MCA stroke onset. We used DTT to evaluate CST involvement in the MC and PMC, CS, CR, and PLIC and in combinations of these regions at admission, at day 3, and at day 30. Severity of limb weakness was assessed using the m-NIHSS (5a, 5b, 6a, 6b). We calculated volumes of infarct and FA values in the CST of the pons. Results Acute damage to the PLIC was the best predictor associated with poor motor outcome, axonal damage, and clinical severity at admission (P&.001). There was no significant correlation between acute infarct volume and motor outcome at day 90 (P=.176, r=0.485). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of acute CST involvement at the level of the PLIC for 4 motor outcome at day 90 were 73.7%, 100%, 100%, and 89.1%, respectively. In the acute stage, DTT predicted motor outcome at day 90 better than the clinical scores (R2=75.50, F=80.09, P&.001). Conclusions In the acute setting, DTT is promising for stroke mapping to predict motor outcome. Acute CST damage at the level of the PLIC is a significant predictor of unfavorable motor outcome.

Markers of atherosclerosis and inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

Although both inflammatory and atherosclerosis markers have been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, data directly comparing their predictive value are limited. The authors compared the value of 2 atherosclerosis markers (ankle-arm index (AAI) and aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV)) and 3 inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)) in predicting CHD events. Among 2,191 adults aged 70-79 years at baseline (1997-1998) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study cohort, the authors examined adjudicated incident myocardial infarction or CHD death ("hard" events) and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (total CHD events). During 8 years of follow-up between 1997-1998 and June 2007, 351 participants developed total CHD events (197 "hard" events). IL-6 (highest quartile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.49; P-trend < 0.001) and AAI (AAI </= 0.9 vs. AAI 1.01-1.30: hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 2.18) predicted CHD events above traditional risk factors and modestly improved global measures of predictive accuracy. CRP, TNF-alpha, and aPWV had weaker associations. IL-6 and AAI accurately reclassified 6.6% and 3.3% of participants, respectively (P's </= 0.05). Results were similar for "hard" CHD, with higher reclassification rates for AAI. IL-6 and AAI are associated with future CHD events beyond traditional risk factors and modestly improve risk prediction in older adults.

Plant species distributions along environmental gradients: do belowground interactions with fungi matter?

The distribution of plants along environmental gradients is constrained by abiotic and biotic factors. Cumulative evidence attests of the impact of biotic factors on plant distributions, but only few studies discuss the role of belowground communities. Soil fungi, in particular, are thought to play an important role in how plant species assemble locally into communities. We first review existing evidence, and then test the effect of the number of soil fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) on plant species distributions using a recently collected dataset of plant and metagenomic information on soil fungi in the Western Swiss Alps. Using species distribution models (SDMs), we investigated whether the distribution of individual plant species is correlated to the number of OTUs of two important soil fungal classes known to interact with plants: the Glomeromycetes, that are obligatory symbionts of plants, and the Agaricomycetes, that may be facultative plant symbionts, pathogens, or wood decayers. We show that including the fungal richness information in the models of plant species distributions improves predictive accuracy. Number of fungal OTUs is especially correlated to the distribution of high elevation plant species. We suggest that high elevation soil show greater variation in fungal assemblages that may in turn impact plant turnover among communities. We finally discuss how to move beyond correlative analyses, through the design of field experiments manipulating plant and fungal communities along environmental gradients.