962 resultados para predicting and alert system


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Prediction of carbohydrate fractions using equations from the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) is a valuable tool to assess the nutritional value of forages. In this paper these carbohydrate fractions were predicted using data from three sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) cultivars, fresh or as silage. The CNCPS equations for fractions B(2) and C include measurement of ash and protein-free neutral detergent fibre (NDF) as one of their components. However, NDF lacks pectin and other non-starch polysaccharides that are found in the cell wall (CW) matrix, so this work compared the use of a crude CW preparation instead of NDF in the CNCPS equations. There were no differences in the estimates of fractions B, and C when CW replaced NDF; however there were differences in fractions A and B2. Some of the CNCPS equations could be simplified when using CW instead of NDF Notably, lignin could be expressed as a proportion of DM, rather than on the basis of ash and protein-free NDF, when predicting CNCPS fraction C. The CNCPS fraction B(1) (starch + pectin) values were lower than pectin determined through wet chemistty. This finding, along with the results obtained by the substitution of CW for NDF in the CNCPS equations, suggests that pectin was not part of fraction B(1) but present in fraction A. We suggest that pectin and other non-starch polysaccharides that are dissolved by the neutral detergent solution be allocated to a specific fraction (B2) and that another fraction (B(3)) be adopted for the digestible cell wall carbohydrates.

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Os serviços baseados em localização vieram dar um novo alento à criatividade dos programadores de aplicações móveis. A vulgarização de dispositivos com capacidades de localização integradas deu origem ao desenvolvimento de aplicações que gerem e apresentam informação baseada na posição do utilizador. Desde então, o mercado móvel tem assistido ao aparecimento de novas categorias de aplicações que tiram proveito desta capacidade. Entre elas, destaca-se a monitorização remota de dispositivos, que tem vindo a assumir uma importância crescente, tanto no sector particular como no sector empresarial. Esta dissertação começa por apresentar o estado da arte sobre os diferentes sistemas de posicionamento, categorizados pela sua eficácia em ambientes internos ou externos, assim como diferentes protocolos de comunicação em tempo quase-real. É também feita uma análise ao estado actual do mercado móvel. Actualmente o mercado possui diferentes plataformas móveis com características únicas que as fazem rivalizar entre si, com vista a expandirem a sua quota de mercado. É por isso elaborado um breve estudo sobre os sistemas operativos móveis mais relevantes da actualidade. É igualmente feita uma abordagem mais profunda à arquitectura da plataforma móvel da Apple - o iOS – que serviu de base ao desenvolvimento de uma solução optimizada para localização e monitorização de dispositivos móveis. A monitorização implica uma utilização intensiva de recursos energéticos e de largura de banda que os dispositivos móveis da actualidade não estão aptos a suportar. Dado o grande consumo energético do GPS face à precária autonomia destes dispositivos, é apresentado um estudo em que se expõem soluções que permitem gerir de forma optimizada a utilização do GPS. O elevado custo dos planos de dados facultados pelas operadoras móveis é também considerado, pelo que são exploradas soluções que visam minimizar a utilização de largura de banda. Deste trabalho, nasce a aplicação EyeGotcha, que para além de permitir localizar outros utilizadores de dispositivos móveis de forma optimizada, permite também monitorizar as suas acções baseando-se num conjunto de regras pré-definidas. Estas acções são reportadas às entidades monitoras, de modo automatizado e sob a forma de alertas. Visionando-se a comercialização da aplicação, é portanto apresentado um modelo de negócio que permite obter receitas capazes de cobrirem os custos de manutenção de serviços, aos quais o funcionamento da aplicação móvel está subjugado.

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This paper asks a simple question: if humans and their actions co-evolve with hydrological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2012), what is the role of hydrological scientists, who are also humans, within this system? To put it more directly, as traditionally there is a supposed separation of scientists and society, can we maintain this separation as socio-hydrologists studying a socio-hydrological world? This paper argues that we cannot, using four linked sections. The first section draws directly upon the concern of science-technology studies to make a case to the (socio-hydrological) community that we need to be sensitive to constructivist accounts of science in general and socio-hydrology in particular. I review three positions taken by such accounts and apply them to hydrological science, supported with specific examples: (a) the ways in which scientific activities frame socio-hydrological research, such that at least some of the knowledge that we obtain is constructed by precisely what we do; (b) the need to attend to how socio-hydrological knowledge is used in decision-making, as evidence suggests that hydrological knowledge does not flow simply from science into policy; and (c) the observation that those who do not normally label themselves as socio-hydrologists may actually have a profound knowledge of socio-hydrology. The second section provides an empirical basis for considering these three issues by detailing the history of the practice of roughness parameterisation, using parameters like Manning's n, in hydrological and hydraulic models for flood inundation mapping. This history sustains the third section that is a more general consideration of one type of socio-hydrological practice: predictive modelling. I show that as part of a socio-hydrological analysis, hydrological prediction needs to be thought through much more carefully: not only because hydrological prediction exists to help inform decisions that are made about water management; but also because those predictions contain assumptions, the predictions are only correct in so far as those assumptions hold, and for those assumptions to hold, the socio-hydrological system (i.e. the world) has to be shaped so as to include them. Here, I add to the ``normal'' view that ideally our models should represent the world around us, to argue that for our models (and hence our predictions) to be valid, we have to make the world look like our models. Decisions over how the world is modelled may transform the world as much as they represent the world. Thus, socio-hydrological modelling has to become a socially accountable process such that the world is transformed, through the implications of modelling, in a fair and just manner. This leads into the final section of the paper where I consider how socio-hydrological research may be made more socially accountable, in a way that is both sensitive to the constructivist critique (Sect. 1), but which retains the contribution that hydrologists might make to socio-hydrological studies. This includes (1) working with conflict and controversy in hydrological science, rather than trying to eliminate them; (2) using hydrological events to avoid becoming locked into our own frames of explanation and prediction; (3) being empirical and experimental but in a socio-hydrological sense; and (4) co-producing socio-hydrological predictions. I will show how this might be done through a project that specifically developed predictive models for making interventions in river catchments to increase high river flow attenuation. Therein, I found myself becoming detached from my normal disciplinary networks and attached to the co-production of a predictive hydrological model with communities normally excluded from the practice of hydrological science.

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This thesis aimed at designing and developing a system that can a) infer individuals’ need for a break from sedentary behaviour in the workplace, and b) persuade them to take a break through the use of different techniques from persuasive psychology. We postulated three variables, namely, individuals’ posture, stress levels and involvement in their computer mediated activity. We developed and field-studied a system that could infer these using a web camera and a key presses and mouse clicks log. We found that the system could predict posture from viewing depth and stress from the movement detected. We then created a general formula that predicts individuals’ need for a break using only the posture and stress predictors. Once the first objective was set, we built and field-studied a system that used three ways to communicate a recommendation for a break to a user: implicit, just-in time and ambient feedback. The implicit feedback was operationalized through changes in the users’ computer wallpaper that provided subtle visual cues. The just-in time feedback employed prompting at the bottom right side of the user’s screen. In addition, we implemented an intuitive behind-screen interaction technique where people can snooze a notification using simple gestures. The ambient feedback mechanism employed an origami sculpture sitting on the user’s desk. This prototype was continuously reflecting the user’s posture and performed rhythmic movements when to recommend breaks. A field study demonstrated the overall success of the system, with 69% of the break recommendations received by users were accepted. The study further revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the three persuasive mechanisms.

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There is a growing discussion surrounding the issue of personalized approaches to drug prescription based on an individual's genetic makeup. This field of investigation has focused primarily on identifying genetic factors that influence drug metabolism and cellular disposition, thereby contributing to dose-dependent toxicities and/or variable drug efficacy. However, pharmacogenetic approaches have also proved valuable in predicting drug hypersensitivity reactions in selected patient populations, including HIV-infected patients receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy. In this instance, susceptibility has been strongly linked to genetic loci involved in antigen recognition and presentation to the immune system--most notably within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region--consistent with the notion that hypersensitivity reactions represent drug-specific immune responses that are largely dose independent. Here the authors describe their experiences with the development of pharmacogenetic approaches to hypersensitivity reactions associated with abacavir and nevirapine, two commonly prescribed antiretroviral drugs. It is demonstrated that prospective screening tests to identify and exclude individuals with a certain genetic makeup may be largely successful in decreasing or eliminating incidence of these adverse drug reactions in certain populations. This review also explores the broader implications of these findings.

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Diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment, like diagnosis of most problems, requires bi-directional plausible reasoning. This means that both predictive (from causes to symptoms) and diagnostic (from symptoms to causes) inferences have to be made, depending on the evidence available, in reasoning for the final diagnosis. The use of computer technology for the purpose of diagnosing faults in the wastewater process has been explored, and a rule-based expert system was initiated. It was found that such an approach has serious limitations in its ability to reason bi-directionally, which makes it unsuitable for diagnosing tasks under the conditions of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) was then critically reviewed, and was found to be well-suited for diagnosis under uncertainty. The theory and application of BBNs are outlined. A full-scale BBN for the diagnosis of faults in a wastewater treatment plant based on the activated sludge system has been developed in this research. Results from the BBN show good agreement with the predictions of wastewater experts. It can be concluded that the BBNs are far superior to rule-based systems based on certainty factors in their ability to diagnose faults and predict systems in complex operating systems having inherently uncertain behaviour.

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In his dialogue - Near Term Computer Management Strategy For Hospitality Managers and Computer System Vendors - by William O'Brien, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, Associate Professor O’Brien initially states: “The computer revolution has only just begun. Rapid improvement in hardware will continue into the foreseeable future; over the last five years it has set the stage for more significant improvements in software technology still to come. John Naisbitt's information electronics economy¹ based on the creation and distribution of information has already arrived and as computer devices improve, hospitality managers will increasingly do at least a portion of their work with software tools.” At the time of this writing Assistant Professor O’Brien will have you know, contrary to what some people might think, the computer revolution is not over, it’s just beginning; it’s just an embryo. Computer technology will only continue to develop and expand, says O’Brien with citation. “A complacent few of us who feel “we have survived the computer revolution” will miss opportunities as a new wave of technology moves through the hospitality industry,” says ‘Professor O’Brien. “Both managers who buy technology and vendors who sell it can profit from strategy based on understanding the wave of technological innovation,” is his informed opinion. Property managers who embrace rather than eschew innovation, in this case computer technology, will benefit greatly from this new science in hospitality management, O’Brien says. “The manager who is not alert to or misunderstands the nature of this wave of innovation will be the constant victim of technology,” he advises. On the vendor side of the equation, O’Brien observes, “Computer-wise hospitality managers want systems which are easier and more profitable to operate. Some view their own industry as being somewhat behind the times… They plan to pay significantly less for better computer devices. Their high expectations are fed by vendor marketing efforts…” he says. O’Brien warns against taking a gamble on a risky computer system by falling victim to un-substantiated claims and pie-in-the-sky promises. He recommends affiliating with turn-key vendors who provide hardware, software, and training, or soliciting the help of large mainstream vendors such as IBM, NCR, or Apple. Many experts agree that the computer revolution has merely and genuinely morphed into the software revolution, informs O’Brien; “…recognizing that a computer is nothing but a box in which programs run.” Yes, some of the empirical data in this article is dated by now, but the core philosophy of advancing technology, and properties continually tapping current knowledge is sound.

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Predicting accurate bond length alternations (BLAs) in long conjugated oligomers has been a significant challenge for electronic-structure methods for many decades, made particularly important by the close relationships between BLA and the rich optoelectronic properties of π-delocalized systems. Here, we test the accuracy of recently developed, and increasingly popular, double hybrid (DH) functionals, positioned at the top of Jacobs Ladder of DFT methods of increasing sophistication, computational cost, and accuracy, due to incorporation of MP2 correlation energy. Our test systems comprise oligomeric series of polyacetylene, polymethineimine, and polysilaacetylene up to six units long. MP2 calculations reveal a pronounced shift in BLAs between the 6-31G(d) basis set used in many studies of BLA to date and the larger cc-pVTZ basis set, but only modest shifts between cc-pVTZ and aug-cc-pVQZ results. We hence perform new reference CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ calculations for all three series of oligomers against which we assess the performance of several families of DH functionals based on BLYP, PBE, and TPSS, along with lower-rung relatives including global- and range-separated hybrids. Our results show that DH functionals systematically improve the accuracy of BLAs relative to single hybrid functionals. xDH-PBE0 (N4 scaling using SOS-MP2) emerges as a DH functional rivaling the BLA accuracy of SCS-MP2 (N5 scaling), which was found to offer the best compromise between computational cost and accuracy the last time the BLA accuracy of DFT- and wave function-based methods was systematically investigated. Interestingly, xDH-PBE0 (XYG3), which differs to other DHs in that its MP2 term uses PBE0 (B3LYP) orbitals that are not self-consistent with the DH functional, is an outlier of trends of decreasing average BLA errors with increasing fractions of MP2 correlation and HF exchange.

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Objetivou-se quantificar as frações de carboidratos pelas equações do Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) de três cultivares de girassol (Helianthus annuus L.) cultivados na presença ou não de irrigação. A utilização de uma preparação fibrosa, denominada parede celular (PC), nas equações da CNCPS, em substituição à fibra em detergente neutro (FDN) não promoveu diferenças nas frações de carboidratos B1 e C, mas influenciou as frações A e B2. Como os valores da fração B1, obtidos pelo modelo CNCPS foram menores que os teores de amido e pectina determinados em laboratório, supõe-se que a pectina e outros oligossacarídeos da parede celular, solubilizados pela solução de detergente neutro (fibra solúvel), nunca fizeram parte da fração B1, e sim da fração A. Apesar de os carboidratos da fibra solúvel apresentarem elevadas taxas de degradação, não parece adequada a caracterização da fibra solúvel na fração A. Parece mais adequado que a fibra solúvel (que inclui a pectina) seja alocada a uma fração exclusivamente sua, que pode ser a fração B2, e que seja criada uma nova fração, a B3, para os carboidratos digeríveis da parede celular. Assim, a fração B1 seria composta apenas de amido. A equação da fração C, que estima os carboidratos indigeríveis da parede celular, pode ser simplificada, relacionando a fração indigerível ao teor de lignina na matéria seca, e não à FDN isenta de cinzas e proteína, como atualmente utilizado. Esta proposta tem implicações práticas, uma vez que a fração indigerível da parede celular tem sido expressa em relação à FDN, e não na MS, com base no fato de que os efeitos inibitórios da lignina ocorrem sobre os componentes fibrosos da parede celular vegetal, e não sobre o conteúdo celular.

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The radiation of angiosperms is associated with shifts among pollination modes that are thought to have driven the diversification of floral forms. However, the exact sequence of evolutionary events that led to such great diversity in floral traits is unknown for most plant groups. Here, we characterize the patterns of evolution of individual floral traits and overall floral morphologies in the tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae). We identified 12 discrete traits that are associated with seven floral types previously described for the group and used a penalized likelihood tree of the tribe to reconstruct the ancestral states of those traits at all nodes of the phylogeny of Bignonieae. In addition, evolutionary correlations among traits were conducted using a maximum likelihood approach to test whether the evolution of individual floral traits followed the correlated patterns of evolution expected under the ""pollination syndrome"" concept. The ancestral Bignonieae flower presented an Anemopaegma-type morphology, which was followed by several parallel shifts in floral morphologies. Those shifts occurred through intermediate stages resulting in mixed floral morphologies as well as directly from the Anemopaegma-type morphology to other floral types. Positive and negative evolutionary correlations among traits fit patterns expected under the pollination syndrome perspective, suggesting that interactions between Bignonieae flowers and pollinators likely played important roles in the diversification of the group as a whole.

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A comparative study between microsatellite and allozyme markers was conducted on the genetic structure and mating system in natural populations of Euterpe edulis Mart. Three cohorts, including seedlings, saplings, and adults, were examined in 4 populations using 10 allozyme loci and 10 microsatellite loci. As expected, microsatellite markers had a much higher degree of polymorphism than allozymes, but estimates of multilocus outcrossing rate ((t) over cap (m) = 1.00), as well as estimates of genetic structure (F(IS), G(ST)), were similar for the 2 sets of markers. Estimates of R(ST), for microsatellites, were higher than those of GST, but results of both statistics revealed a close agreement for the genetic structure of the species. This study provides support for the important conclusion that allozymes are still useful and reliable markers to estimate population genetic parameters. Effects of sample size on estimates from hypervariable loci are also discussed in this paper.

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The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

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Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Para State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.607) rather than among the fruits ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species. Heredity (2011) 106, 973-985; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.145; published online 8 December 2010