Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.

Ocean heat transport and water vapor greenhouse in a warm equable climate: a new look at the low gradient paradox

The authors study the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in the maintenance of a warm, equable, ice-free climate. An ensemble of idealized aquaplanet GCM calculations is used to assess the equilibrium sensitivity of global mean surface temperature and its equator-to-pole gradient (ΔT) to variations in OHT, prescribed through a simple analytical formula representing export out of the tropics and poleward convergence. Low-latitude OHT warms the mid- to high latitudes without cooling the tropics; increases by 1°C and ΔT decreases by 2.6°C for every 0.5-PW increase in OHT across 30° latitude. This warming is relatively insensitive to the detailed meridional structure of OHT. It occurs in spite of near-perfect atmospheric compensation of large imposed variations in OHT: the total poleward heat transport is nearly fixed. The warming results from a convective adjustment of the extratropical troposphere. Increased OHT drives a shift from large-scale to convective precipitation in the midlatitude storm tracks. Warming arises primarily from enhanced greenhouse trapping associated with convective moistening of the upper troposphere. Warming extends to the poles by atmospheric processes even in the absence of high-latitude OHT. A new conceptual model for equable climates is proposed, in which OHT plays a key role by driving enhanced deep convection in the midlatitude storm tracks. In this view, the climatic impact of OHT depends on its effects on the greenhouse properties of the atmosphere, rather than its ability to increase the total poleward energy transport.

Evidence of a universal scaling relationship for leaf CO2 drawdown along an aridity gradient

The leaf carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) of C3 plants is inversely related to the drawdown of CO2 concentration during photosynthesis, which increases towards drier environments. We aimed to discriminate between the hypothesis of universal scaling, which predicts between-species responses of δ13C to aridity similar to within-species responses, and biotic homoeostasis, which predicts offsets in the δ13C of species occupying adjacent ranges. The Northeast China Transect spans 130–900 mm annual precipitation within a narrow latitude and temperature range. Leaves of 171 species were sampled at 33 sites along the transect (18 at ≥ 5 sites) for dry matter, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area (SLA) and δ13C. The δ13C of species generally followed a common relationship with the climatic moisture index (MI). Offsets between adjacent species were not observed. Trees and forbs diverged slightly at high MI. In C3 plants, δ13C predicted N per unit leaf area (Narea) better than MI. The δ13C of C4 plants was invariant with MI. SLA declined and Narea increased towards low MI in both C3 and C4 plants. The data are consistent with optimal stomatal regulation with respect to atmospheric dryness. They provide evidence for universal scaling of CO2 drawdown with aridity in C3 plants.

Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.

Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil

We investigated the seasonal patterns of water vapor and sensible heat flux along a tropical biome gradient from forest to savanna. We analyzed data from a network of flux towers in Brazil that were operated within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These tower sites included tropical humid and semideciduous forest, transitional forest, floodplain (with physiognomies of cerrado), and cerrado sensu stricto. The mean annual sensible heat flux at all sites ranged from 20 to 38 Wm(-2), and was generally reduced in the wet season and increased in the late dry season, coincident with seasonal variations of net radiation and soil moisture. The sites were easily divisible into two functional groups based on the seasonality of evaporation: tropical forest and savanna. At sites with an annual precipitation above 1900 mm and a dry season length less than 4 months (Manaus, Santarem and Rondonia), evaporation rates increased in the dry season, coincident with increased radiation. Evaporation rates were as high as 4.0 mm d(-1) in these evergreen or semidecidous forests. In contrast, ecosystems with precipitation less than 1700 mm and a longer dry season (Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Sao Paulo) showed clear evidence of reduced evaporation in the dry season. Evaporation rates were as low as 2.5 mm d(-1) in the transitional forests and 1 mm d(-1) in the cerrado. The controls on evapotranspiration seasonality changed along the biome gradient, with evaporative demand (especially net radiation) playing a more important role in the wetter forests, and soil moisture playing a more important role in the drier savannah sites.

Reproductive phenology of Euterpe edulis (Arecaceae) along a gradient in the Atlantic rainforest of Brazil

The palm Euterpe edulis Mart. is one of the dominant tree species in the Atlantic rainforest and considered a key resource for many frugivorous birds. We compared the reproductive phenology of E. edulis in three types of Atlantic rainforest (two lowland forests, restinga and coastal-plain, and a premontane forest) on Cardoso Island (Cananeia, São Paulo, Brazil), aiming to answer the following questions: (i) whether the reproduction of E. edulis is annual and seasonal across the years in the three forest types studied; (ii) what are the environmental factors influencing the reproductive phenology of E. edulis; and (iii) how does the timing of fruiting and fruit production of E. edulis vary among the three forest types? We evaluated the presence of flowers and fruits (immature, unripe and ripe) from August 2001 to July 2004 in 150 individuals (50 per forest), and estimated the number of infructescences with ripe fruits and the production of fruits and seeds by collecting them on the forest floor in the three forest types. Flowering and fruiting of E. edulis were annual and significantly seasonal in the three forest types, with a high synchrony of flowering and medium to low synchrony of fruiting. Flowering peaked in November and December, and immature and unripe fruits peaked in January and March, all during the rainy season. Immature and unripe fruit phases were correlated with the daylength, precipitation and temperature, important factors for fruits development. Ripe fruits peaked in April and May, in the less rainy season, with significant differences in the mean dates among forests. The number of infructescences with ripe fruits and the biomass of fruits and seeds collected on the ground also differed significantly among the forest types, being greater in the restinga and coastal plain forests, respectively. Differences in productivity were related to palm density in each area and the soil fertility. The complementary fruiting pattern of E. edulis in the forests studied may affect the distribution and abundance of certain frugivorous bird species that feed on their fruits.

Geophysical Analysis of Seasonal Montandon Gravel Ridge Water Table Fluctuation and Moisture Gradient Variation due to Storm Events

The purpose of this research project is to continue exploring the Montandon Long-Term Hydrologic Research Site(LTHR) by using multiple geophysical methods to obtain more accurate and precise information regarding subsurface hydrologic properties of a local gravel ridge,which are important to both the health of surrounding ecosystems and local agriculture. Through using non-invasive geophysical methods such as seismic refraction, Direct Current resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) instead of invasive methods such as boreholedrilling which displace sediment and may alter water flow, data collection is less likely to bias the data itself. In addition to imaging the gravel ridge subsurface, another important researchpurpose is to observe how both water table elevation and the moisture gradient (moisture content of the unsaturated zone) change over a seasonal time period and directly after storm events. The combination of three types of data collection allows the strengths of each method combine together and provide a relatively strongly supported conclusions compared to previous research. Precipitation and geophysical data suggest that an overall increase in precipitation during the summer months causes a sharp decrease in subsurface resistivity within the unsaturated zone. GPR velocity data indicate significant immediate increase in moisture content within the shallow vadose zone (< 1m), suggesting that rain water was infiltrating into the shallow subsurface. Furthermore, the combination of resistivity and GPR results suggest that the decreased resistivity within the shallow layers is due to increased ion content within groundwater. This is unexpected as rainwater is assumed to have a DC resistivity value of 3.33*105 ohm-m. These results may suggest that ions within the sediment must beincorporated into the infiltrating water.

Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

Water is an important resource for plant life. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of experimental drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Responses of community above-ground productivity to reduced precipitation input differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, vegetation carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation of management strategies will be needed, especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

Growth response to climate and drought change along an aridity gradient in the southernmost Pinus nigra relict forests

Tree populations at the rear edge of species distribution are sensitive to climate stress and drought. However, growth responses of these tree populations to those stressors may vary along climatic gradients. To analyze growth responses to climate and drought using dendrochronology in rear-edge Pinus nigra populations located along an aridity gradient. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for the twentieth century and related to monthly climatic variables, a drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index), and two atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations). Growth was enhanced by wet and cold previous autumns and warm late winters before tree-ring formation. The influence of the previous year conditions on growth increased during the past century. Growth was significantly related to North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean Oscillations in two out of five sites. The strongest responses of growth to the drought index were observed in the most xeric sites. Dry conditions before tree-ring formation constrain growth in rear-edge P. nigra populations. The comparisons of climate-growth responses along aridity gradients allow characterizing the sensitivity of relict stands to climate warming.

Climatic drivers of hourly to yearly tree radius variations along a 6°C natural warming gradient

Climate affects the timing, rate and dynamics of tree growth, over time scales ranging from seconds to centuries. Monitoring how a tree's stem radius varies over these time scales can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Here, we quantify the response of radial conifer stem size to environmental fluctuations via a novel assessment of tree circadian cycles. We analyze four years of sub-hourly data collected from 56 larch and spruce trees growing along a natural temperature gradient of ∼6 °C in the central Swiss Alps. During the growing season, tree stem diameters were greatest at mid-morning and smallest in the late evening, reflecting the daily cycle of water uptake and loss. Along the gradient, amplitudes calculated from the stem radius cycle were ∼50% smaller at the upper site (∼2200 m a.s.l.) relative to the lower site (∼800 m a.s.l.). We show changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover have a substantial effect on typical growing season diurnal cycles; amplitudes were nine times smaller on rainy days (>10 mm), and daily amplitudes are approximately 40% larger when the mean daily temperature is 15–20 °C than when it is 5–10 °C. We find that over the growing season in the sub-alpine forests, spruce show greater daily stem water movement than larch. However, under projected future warming, larch could experience up to 50% greater stem water use, which may severely affect future growth on already dry sites. Our data further indicate that because of the confounding influences of radial growth and short-term water dynamics on stem size, conventional methodology probably overstates the effect of water-linked meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and relative humidity) on intra-annual tree growth. We suggest future studies use intra-seasonal measurements of cell development and consider whether climatic factors produce reversible changes in stem diameter. These study design elements may help researchers more accurately quantify and attribute changes in forest productivity in response to future warming.

Stable-Isotopic Composition of Precipitation Over the Northern Slope of the Central Himalaya

Stable-water-isotope data (deltaD and delta(18)O) from three groups of samples (fresh-snow and snow-pit samples collected on Qomolangma (Mount Everest) and Xixabangma during field seasons 1997,1998 and 2001, and precipitation samples collected at Tingri station during summer 2000) are presented and used to survey the isotopic composition of precipitation over the northern slope of the central Himalaya. Multi-year snow-pit samples on Qomolangma have a local meteoric water-line (slope = 8) close to the global value. Deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8delta(18)O) values at Tingri are much lower than those in fresh snow from Qomolangma, probably due to differences in moisture source and air-mass trajectories as well as local weather conditions. There is no obvious seasonal trend for d values in the Qomolangma region. A negative relationship exists between delta(18)O and d values in both fresh snow on Qomolangma and precipitation at Tingri. Fresh-snow samples collected from different altitudes on Xixabangma allow us to investigate the altitude effect on delta(18)O values in snow. Of four storm events, only one has an obvious altitude effect on delta(18)O variation and a very low gradient of -0.1% per 100 in elevation.

Remote Sensing of Vegetation Change Across a Latitudinal Gradient in the Canadian Arctic

Global air surface temperatures and precipitation have increased over the last several decades resulting in a trend of greening across the Circumpolar Arctic. The spatial variability of warming and the inherent effects on plant communities has not proven to be uniform or homogeneous on global or local scales. We can apply remote sensing vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map and monitor vegetation change (e.g., phenology, greening, percent cover, and biomass) over time. It is important to document how Arctic vegetation is changing, as it will have large implications related to global carbon and surface energy budgets. The research reported here examined vegetation greening across different spatial and temporal scales at two disparate Arctic sites: Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, and Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU. To characterize the vegetation in the ARW, high spatial resolution WorldView-2 data were processed to create a supervised land-cover classification and model percent vegetation cover (PVC) (a similar process had been completed in a previous study for the CBAWO). Meanwhile, NDVI data spanning the past 30 years were derived from intermediate resolution Landsat data at the two Arctic sites. The land-cover classifications at both sites were used to examine the Landsat NDVI time series by vegetation class. Climate variables (i.e., temperature, precipitation and growing season length (GSL) were examined to explore the potential relationships of NDVI to climate warming. PVC was successfully modeled using high resolution data in the ARW. PVC and plant communities appear to reside along a moisture and altitudinal gradient. The NDVI time series demonstrated an overall significant increase in greening at the CBAWO (High Arctic site), specifically in the dry and mesic vegetation type. However, similar overall greening was not observed for the ARW (Low Arctic site). The overall increase in NDVI at the CBAWO was attributed to a significant increase in July temperatures, precipitation and GSL.

Patterns of phosphorus, nitrogen and δ15N along a peat development gradient in a coastal mire, Panama

Differentiation of limiting nutrients within small spatial scales has been observed in coastal mangrove forests, but research on other tropical peatlands suggests it is a more widespread phenomenon. In the Changuinola mire of coastal Panama, oligotrophy was hypothesized to increase along a gradient of peat development (peat doming). Nutrient and carbon concentration of leaf tissue, soil, and soil porewater were characterised over a successive sequence of plant communities along the gradient. Soil phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations decreased from 1200 μg P g−1 and 27 mg N g−1 to 377 μg P g−1 and 22 mg N g−1 within 2.7 km into the mire interior. These changes coincided with an increase in soil and average leaf N:P molar ratios from 52–128 and 24–41, respectively. Soil P was strongly related to leaf P and soil N:P to foliar N:P. There was a wide range in δ15N values for canopy (4.0 to −9.4‰), Campnosperma panamense (4.0 to −7.8‰) and understorey (4.8 to −3.1‰) species. Foliar δ15N values of canopy species were strongly related to soil N:P, soil P and leaf P. The depleted foliar δ15N values appeared to be an effect of both the N atmospheric source and P limitation. Here, P limitation is likely associated with ombrotrophic conditions that developed as hydrologic inputs became dominated by precipitation.