Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority.

Association of variants at 1q32 and STAT3 with ankylosing spondylitis suggests genetic overlap with Crohn's disease

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common inflammatory arthritic condition. Overt inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) occurs in about 10% of AS patients, and in addition 70% of AS cases may have subclinical terminal ileitis. Spondyloarthritis is also common in IBD patients. We therefore tested Crohn's disease susceptibility genes for association with AS, aiming to identify pleiotropic genetic associations with both diseases. Genotyping was carried out using Sequenom and Applied Biosystems TaqMan and OpenArray technologies on 53 markers selected from 30 Crohn's disease associated genomic regions. We tested genotypes in a population of unrelated individual cases (n = 2,773) and controls (n = 2,215) of white European ancestry for association with AS. Statistical analysis was carried out using a Cochran-Armitage test for trend in PLINK. Strong association was detected at chr1q32 near KIF21B (rs11584383, P = 1.66 x 10-10, odds ratio (OR) = 0.74, 95% CI:0.68-0.82). Association with disease was also detected for 2 variants within STAT3 (rs6503695, P = 4.6×10-4. OR = 0.86 (95% CI:0.79-0.93); rs744166, P = 2.6×10-5, OR = 0.84 (95% CI:0.77-0.91)). Association was confirmed for IL23R (rs11465804, P = 1.2×10-5, OR = 0.65 (95% CI:0.54-0.79)), and further associations were detected for IL12B (rs10045431, P = 5.261025, OR = 0.83 (95% CI:0.76-0.91)), CDKAL1 (rs6908425, P = 1.1×10-4, OR = 0.82 (95% CI:0.74-0.91)), LRRK2/MUC19 (rs11175593, P = 9.9×10-5, OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.38-2.67)), and chr13q14 (rs3764147, P = 5.9×10-4, OR = 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08-1.31)). Excluding cases with clinical IBD did not significantly affect these findings. This study identifies chr1q32 and STAT3 as ankylosing spondylitis susceptibility loci. It also further confirms association for IL23R and detects suggestive association with another 4 loci. STAT3 is a key signaling molecule within the Th17 lymphocyte differentiation pathway and further enhances the case for a major role of this T-lymphocyte subset in ankylosing spondylitis. Finally these findings suggest common aetiopathogenic pathways for AS and Crohn's disease and further highlight the involvement of common risk variants across multiple diseases.

Letter Reply: Distribution of TNFA haplotypes in healthy Caucasians: Comment on the articles by Newton et al and Zeggini et al

We thank Ploski and colleagues for their interest in our study. The explanation for the difference in our findings is a typographic error in Table 2 of our article, whereby the alleles for marker TNF ⫺1031 were labeled incorrectly...

Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

The effect of transforming growth factor β1 gene polymorphisms in ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives. To determine whether genetic polymorphisms in or near the transforming growth factor β1 (TGFB1) locus were associated d with susceptibility to or severity of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. Five intragenic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and three microsatellite markers flanking the TGFB1 locus were genotyped. Seven hundred and sixty-two individuals from 184 multiplex families were genotyped for the microsatellite markers and two of the promoter SNPs. One thousand and two individuals from 212 English and 170 Finnish families with AS were genotyped for all five intragenic SNPs. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the age of symptom onset, disease duration and disease severity scores, including the BASDAI (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index) and BASFI (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index). Results. A weak association was noted between the rare TGFB1 + 1632 T allele and AS in the Finnish population (P = 0.04) and in the combined data set (P = 0.03). No association was noted between any other SNPs or SNP haplotype and AS, even among those families with positive non-parametric linkage scores. The TGFB1 +1632 polymorphism was also associated with a younger age of symptom onset (English population, allele 2 associated with age of onset greater by 4.2 yr, P = 0.05; combined data set, allele 2 associated with age of onset greater by 3.2 yr, P = 0.02). A haplotype of coding region SNPs (TGFB1 +869/ +915+1632 alleles 2/1/2) was associated with age of symptom onset in both the English parent-case trios and the combined data set (English data set, haplotype 2/1/2 associated with age of onset greater by 4.9 yr, P = 0.03; combined data set, haplotype 2/1/2 associated with greater age of onset by 4.2 yr, P = 0.006). Weak linkage with AS susceptibility was noted and the peak LOD score was 1.3 at distance 2 cM centromeric to the TGFB1 gene. No other linkage or association was found between quantitative traits and the markers. Conclusion. This study suggests that the polymorphisms within the TGFB1 gene play at most a small role in AS and that other genes encoded on chromosome 19 are involved in susceptibility to the disease.

Cost effectiveness of bone density measurements

Objective. To assess the cost-effectiveness of bone density screening programmes for osteoporosis. Study design. Using published and locally available data regarding fracture rates and treatment costs, the overall costs per fracture prevented, cost per quality of life year (QALY) saved and cost per year of life gained were estimated for different bone density screening and osteoporosis treatment programmes. Main outcome measures. Cost per fracture prevented, cost per QALY saved, and cost per year of life gained. Results. In women over the age of 50 years, the costs per fracture prevented of treating all women with hormone replacement therapy, or treating only if osteoporosis is demonstrated on bone density screening were £32,594 or £23,867 respectively. For alendronate therapy for the same groups, the costs were £171,067 and £14,067 respectively. Once the background rate of treatment with alendronate reaches 18%, bone density screening becomes cost-saving. Costs estimates per QALY saved ranged from £1,514 to £39,076 for osteoporosis treatment with alendronate following bone density screening. Conclusions. For relatively expensive medications such as alendronate, treatment programmes with prior bone density screening are far more cost effective than those without, and in some circumstances become cost-saving. Costs per QALY of life saved and per year of life gained for osteoporosis treatment with prior bone density screening compare favourably with treatment of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.

Promoting and maintaining physical activity in the transition to retirement: A systematic review of interventions for adults around retirement age

It has been argued that transition points in life, such as the approach towards, and early years of retirement present key opportunities for interventions to improve the health of the population. Research has also highlighted inequalities in health status in the retired population and in response to interventions which should be addressed. We aimed to conduct a systematic review to synthesise international evidence on the types and effectiveness of interventions to increase physical activity among people around the time of retirement. A systematic review of literature was carried out between February 2014 and April 2015. Searches were not limited by language or location, but were restricted by date to studies published from 1990 onwards. Methods for identification of relevant studies included electronic database searching, reference list checking, and citation searching. Systematic search of the literature identified 104 papers which described study populations as being older adults. However, we found only one paper which specifically referred to their participants as being around the time of retirement. The intervention approaches for older adults encompassed: training of health care professionals; counselling and advice giving; group sessions; individual training sessions; in-home exercise programmes; in-home computer-delivered programmes; in-home telephone support; in-home diet and exercise programmes; and community-wide initiatives. The majority of papers reported some intervention effect, with evidence of positive outcomes for all types of programmes. A wide range of different measures were used to evaluate effectiveness, many were self-reported and few studies included evaluation of sedentary time. While the retirement transition is considered a significant point of life change, little research has been conducted to assess whether physical activity interventions at this time may be effective in promoting or maintaining activity, or reducing health inequalities. We were unable to find any evidence that the transition to retirement period was, or was not a significant point for intervention. Studies in older adults more generally indicated that a range of interventions might be effective for people around retirement age.

The effects of marriage partners' socio-economic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland

Väitöskirjatutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten aviopuolisoiden sosioekonominen asema vaikuttaa avioeroriskiin Suomessa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin Tilastokeskuksen rekistereistä koottua aineistoa, joka koskee suomalaisten ensimmäisiä avioliittoja vuoden 1990 lopussa ja avioeroja vuosina 1991−93. Väitöskirjaan sisältyy kolme osatutkimusta. Ensimmäinen osatutkimus käsitteli avioeroriskin vaihtelua aviopuolisoiden sosioekonomisen aseman eri osatekijöiden (koulutusaste, sosiaaliryhmä, pääasiallinen toiminta, tulotaso, asunnon omistaminen ja asumisahtaus) mukaan. Kaiken kaikkiaan avioeroriski oli sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa aviopuolisot olivat. Esimerkiksi miehen ja vaimon korkea koulutusaste, toimihenkilöammatti, työssäkäynti (etenkin verrattuna työttömyyteen) sekä omistusasunnossa asuminen liittyivät pienentyneeseen avioeroriskiin. Vaimon sosioekonomisen aseman yhteys avioeroriskiin oli paljolti samanlainen kuin miehen aseman yhteys. Huomattavin poikkeus tähän oli, että vaimon suuret tulot lisäsivät avioeroriskiä, vaikka miehen suurilla tuloilla oli päinvastainen vaikutus. Lisäksi kotitaloustyötä pääasiallisena toimintanaan tekevillä naisilla (pääasiallisen toiminnan luokka ”muut”) oli vielä pienempi avioeroriski kuin työssäkäyvillä naisilla. Toisessa osatutkimuksessa keskityttiin aviomiehen ja vaimon aseman yhdistettyyn vaikutukseen. Selviä viitteitä siitä, että puolisoiden koulutustasojen erilaisuus lisäisi eroriskiä, ei saatu. Pareilla, joissa molemmilla oli enintään perusasteen koulutus, oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempi avioeroriski. Eroriski oli suhteellisen alhainen pareilla, joissa vaimo oli työssäkäyvä tai kotitaloustyötä tekevä ja aviomies työssäkäyvä. Eroriskiä kasvatti se, että aviomies, vaimo tai molemmat puolisot olivat työttömiä. Vaimon korkea tulotaso lisäsi eroriskiä miehen kaikilla tulotasoilla mutta erityisen voimakkaasti silloin, kun miehen tulotaso oli alhainen. Kolmanneksi selvitettiin, vaikuttaako puolisoiden sosioekonominen asema avioeroriskiin eri tavalla riippuen siitä, kauanko avioliitto on kestänyt. Tällöin havaittiin, että vähän koulutettujen ja työntekijäammateissa toimivien puolisoiden suuri eroriski rajoittuu paljolti nuorimpiin avioliittoihin. Sen sijaan esim. puolisoiden työttömyys, vaimon korkea tulotaso ja vuokra-asunnossa asuminen kasvattivat eroriskiä riippumatta siitä, kuinka kauan avioliitto oli kestänyt. Kaiken kaikkiaan eroriski oli siis sitä pienempi, mitä paremmassa taloudellisessa ja sosiaalisessa asemassa puolisot olivat. Vaimon taloudellisilla ja sosiaalisilla resursseilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan myös joitakin avioeroriskiä lisääviä vaikutuksia.

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e a expansão dos riscos ambientais, ações preventivas e catástrofes: o caso de Petrópolis

O município de Petrópolis, palco de recorrente de problemas ambientais envolvendo movimentos de massa concentrados historicamente na sua área mais urbanizada, os distritos Sede e Cascatinha, vive nas últimas décadas um crescimento populacional que se orienta basicamente para antigas áreas rurais de Itaipava, Pedro do Rio e Posse. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é investigar como este crescimento vem ocorrendo, analisando as características geológico-geomorfológicas dos novos espaços ocupados, os fatores predisponentes às novas condições de risco envolvendo os movimentos de massa e as inundações. Assim, foi elaborado um panorama sócio-evolutivo do processo de ocupação do solo em Petrópolis, considerando especialmente a dinâmica demográfica registrada nos distritos através dos censos demográficos a partir da década de 1940. Utilizando o geoprocessamento como ferramenta e a classificação visual de segmentação de OrtofotosCarta IBGE na escala 1: 25.000, foram produzidos mapas de uso do solo para o município e distritos detalhando a área ocupada. Com o fim de atender ao diagnóstico das situações de risco foi realizado o levantamento da situação atual da ocorrência dos movimentos de massa e inundações no município, comparando levantamentos anteriores e verificando a distribuição das ocorrências e a população atingida. Por fim, a avaliação da execução da política de desenvolvimento e expansão urbana definida no Plano Diretor de Petrópolis e na Lei de Uso, Parcelamento e Ocupação do Solo, analisando o zoneamento e seus usos (rural, rururbano, urbano e zona de proteção especial) resultando no entendimento de como os aspectos normativos vem sendo tratados, naquilo que são respeitados e naquilo que não são cumpridos na dinâmica da ocupação do espaço, levantando as ações de prevenção, ou não, dos problemas ambientais. Contudo, a definição dos objetivos do trabalho teve dois momentos. O primeiro com a análise da expansão urbana construindo novas condições de risco e o segundo momento, lamentavelmente, aquele no qual as evidências ganharam contorno de realidade com o ocorrido em dezembro de 2010 e em janeiro de 2011, principalmente quando inundações bruscas associadas aos deslizamentos de terra nas encostas atingiram áreas de Petrópolis e de outros municípios da região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, certamente, a maior tragédia ambiental ocorrida no Centro-Sul do país até então. Com mais de 900 mortos, centenas de desaparecidos e milhares de desabrigados e desalojados, os eventos suplantaram os objetivos do trabalho, colocando novas questões, ao mesmo tempo em que a realidade demonstrou a coerência e pertinência daqueles objetivos com os problemas apresentados. Assim, dentre os objetivos passou a constar também a verificação in loco das conseqüências de movimentos de massa e inundações nas áreas apontadas anteriormente, como foi o caso do vale do Rio Santo Antônio em Itaipava. O trabalho, assim, se pautou por indicar a necessidade ter-se maior atenção às novas áreas de ocupação no município, considerando a natureza do território, contribuindo como um subsídio na prevenção ao risco.

人口统计信息空间可视化系统研究

Population research is a front area concerned by domestic and overseas, especially its researches on its spatial visualization and its geo-visualization system design, which provides a sound base for understanding and analysis of the regional difference in population distribution and its spatial rules. With the development of GIS, the theory of geo-visualization more and more plays an important role in many research fields, especially in population information visualization, and has been made the big achievements recently. Nevertheless, the current research is less attention paid to the system design for statistical-geo visualization for population information. This paper tries to explore the design theories and methodologies for statistical-geo-visualization system for population information. The researches are mainly focused on the framework, the methodologies and techniques for the system design and construction. The purpose of the research is developed a platform for population atlas by the integration of the former owned copy software of the research group in statistical mapping system. As a modern tool, the system will provide a spatial visual environment for user to analyze the characteristics of population distribution and differentiate the interrelations of the population components. Firstly, the paper discusses the essentiality of geo-visualization for population information and brings forward the key issue in statistical-geo visualization system design based on the analysis of inland and international trends. Secondly, the geo-visualization system for population design, including its structure, functionality, module, user interface design, is studied based on the concepts of theory and technology of geo-visualization. The system design is proposed and further divided into three parts: support layer, technical layer, user layer. The support layer is a basic operation module and main part of the system. The technical layer is a core part of the system, supported by database and function modules. The database module mainly include the integrated population database (comprises spatial data, attribute data and geographical features information), the cartographic symbol library, the color library, the statistical analysis model. The function module of the system consists of thematic map maker component, statistical graph maker component, database management component and statistical analysis component. The user layer is an integrated platform, which provides the functions to design and implement a visual interface for user to query, analysis and management the statistic data and the electronic map. Based on the above, China's E-atlas for population was designed and developed by the integration of the national fifth census data with 1:400 million scaled spatial data. The atlas illustrates the actual development level of the population nowadays in China by about 200 thematic maps relating with 10 map categories(environment, population distribution, sex and age, immigration, nation, family and marriage, birth, education, employment, house). As a scientific reference tool, China's E-atlas for population has already received the high evaluation after published in early 2005. Finally, the paper makes the deep analysis of the sex ratio in China, to show how to use the functions of the system to analyze the specific population problem and how to make the data mining. The analysis results showed that: 1. The sex ratio has been increased in many regions after fourth census in 1990 except the cities in the east region, and the high sex ratio is highly located in hilly and low mountain areas where with the high illiteracy rate and the high poor rate; 2. The statistical-geo visualization system is a powerful tool to handle population information, which can be used to reflect the regional differences and the regional variations of population in China and indicate the interrelations of the population with other environment factors. Although the author tries to bring up a integrate design frame of the statistical-geo visualization system, there are still many problems needed to be resolved with the development of geo-visualization studies.

Computer vision tools for low-cost and noninvasive measurement of autism-related behaviors in infants.

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated which promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests that behavioral signs can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involve extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although nonintrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are burdensome for clinical and large population research purposes. This work is a first milestone in a long-term project on non-invasive early observation of children in order to aid in risk detection and research of neurodevelopmental disorders. We focus on providing low-cost computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral signs based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure responses to general ASD risk assessment tasks and activities outlined by the AOSI which assess visual attention by tracking facial features. We show results, including comparisons with expert and nonexpert clinicians, which demonstrate that the proposed computer vision tools can capture critical behavioral observations and potentially augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.

Computer vision tools for the non-invasive assessment of autism-related behavioral markers

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated that promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests behavioral markers can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involved extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although non-intrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are impractical for clinical and large population research purposes. Diagnostic measures for ASD are available for infants but are only accurate when used by specialists experienced in early diagnosis. This work is a first milestone in a long-term multidisciplinary project that aims at helping clinicians and general practitioners accomplish this early detection/measurement task automatically. We focus on providing computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral markers based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure three critical AOSI activities that assess visual attention. We augment these AOSI activities with an additional test that analyzes asymmetrical patterns in unsupported gait. The first set of algorithms involves assessing head motion by tracking facial features, while the gait analysis relies on joint foreground segmentation and 2D body pose estimation in video. We show results that provide insightful knowledge to augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.