984 resultados para population dynamic


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Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

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Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

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In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

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Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

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Environmental variation is a fact of life for all the species on earth: for any population of any particular species, the local environmental conditions are liable to vary in both time and space. In today's world, anthropogenic activity is causing habitat loss and fragmentation for many species, which may profoundly alter the characteristics of environmental variation in remaining habitat. Previous research indicates that, as habitat is lost, the spatial configuration of remaining habitat will increasingly affect the dynamics by which populations are governed. Through the use of mathematical models, this thesis asks how environmental variation interacts with species properties to influence population dynamics, local adaptation, and dispersal evolution. More specifically, we couple continuous-time continuous-space stochastic population dynamic models to landscape models. We manipulate environmental variation via parameters such as mean patch size, patch density, and patch longevity. Among other findings, we show that a mixture of high and low quality habitat is commonly better for a population than uniformly mediocre habitat. This conclusion is justified by purely ecological arguments, yet the positive effects of landscape heterogeneity may be enhanced further by local adaptation, and by the evolution of short-ranged dispersal. The predicted evolutionary responses to environmental variation are complex, however, since they involve numerous conflicting factors. We discuss why the species that have high levels of local adaptation within their ranges may not be the same species that benefit from local adaptation during range expansion. We show how habitat loss can lead to either increased or decreased selection for dispersal depending on the type of habitat and the manner in which it is lost. To study the models, we develop a recent analytical method, Perturbation expansion, to enable the incorporation of environmental variation. Within this context, we use two methods to address evolutionary dynamics: Adaptive dynamics, which assumes mutations occur infrequently so that the ecological and evolutionary timescales can be separated, and via Genotype distributions, which assume mutations are more frequent. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions yet, exceptionally, we show how the evolutionary response of dispersal behaviour to habitat turnover may qualitatively depend on the mutation rate.

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Samples of Pseudotolithus elongatus, Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus and Cynoglosus goreensis obtained from the Cross River Estuary (which is most probably the largest estuary water system along the coast of West Africa) between January 1980 and May 1981 were evaluated on basis of population dynamic analytical method postulated by Pauly (1980) for tropical fish stocks. Growth parameters were obtained for the fish species. Wherever possible, these results were compared to those obtained by Longhurst (1964d) and LeGuen (1971) in other West African waters. On the whole, results obtained in this study tend to indicate that the growth of the croaker, bagrid catfish and the sole in the Cross River Estuary is allometric, the third and fourth year-classes of P. elongatus the second and third class-year of C. nigrodigitatus and the fourth, fifth and sixth year classes of C. goreensis dominated in the age distribution of these fish species

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The green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) is important to the economy of Maine. It is the state’s fourth largest fishery by value. The fishery has experienced a continuous decline in landings since 1992 because of decreasing stock abundance. Because determining the age of sea urchins is often difficult, a formal stock assessment demands the development of a size-structured population dynamic model. One of the most important components in a size-structured model is a growth-transition matrix. We developed an approach for estimating the growth-transition matrix using von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated in previous studies of the green sea urchin off Maine. This approach explicitly considers size-specific variations associated with yearly growth increments for these urchins. The proposed growth-transition matrix can be updated readily with new information on growth, which is important because changes in stock abundance and the ecosystem will likely result in changes in sea urchin key life history parameters including growth. This growth-transition matrix can be readily incorporated into the size-structured stock assessment model that has been developed for assessing the green sea urchin stock off Maine.

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紫茎泽兰(Eupatorium adenophorum)是臭名昭著的世界恶性杂草之一,目前全世界已有30多个国家和地区遭受到它的入侵危害,因此引起了全社会各方面广泛的关注。我国西南部是紫茎泽兰入侵并造成严重危害的地区之一,本文以四川省攀西地区紫茎泽兰入侵危害严重的生态系统为研究对象,分别对不同生境条件下各年龄紫茎泽兰的生长状况、幼苗生长动态、不同类型群落中紫茎泽兰的种群变化规律以及泽兰实蝇防治紫茎泽兰现状进行研究,分析紫茎泽兰生态学特征及入侵策略,以揭示紫茎泽兰的入侵机制。   不同生境条件下相同年龄紫茎泽兰其生长状况有很大的不同:当年生紫茎泽兰幼苗在偏阴和灌丛遮荫环境下生长状况优于偏阳生境下,一年生以上的成熟植株生长情况则相反;紫茎泽兰在其单优群落中的生长状况明显优于灌丛中伴生的紫茎泽兰,说明一定程度的遮荫、植被覆盖及竞争对紫茎泽兰生长有一定的抑制作用。不同种类的灌木对紫茎泽兰生长的影响亦有所不同,其中,马桑(Coriaria sinica)等冠幅较大、性喜阴湿的落叶类灌木对紫茎泽兰幼苗萌发、种群更新有庇护和促进作用,而其他类冠幅小、常绿或落叶、且生于干旱生境下的灌木,则不利于紫茎泽兰幼苗萌发及种群更新,有些甚至会产生化感物种抑制紫茎泽兰的生长。   紫茎泽兰种子萌发属投机式萌发,一年内只要有适合的温湿条件都可以萌发。种子萌发的高峰期主要集中在雨季,冬春干旱季节萌发率很低。紫茎泽兰为常绿半灌木,终年可持续生长,生长速率受光照、湿度和温度影响显著。秋季萌发的紫茎泽兰幼苗在越冬及干旱季节中,各项生长指标(包括主茎长度、总叶面积、基径等)增长缓慢,一年之内平均月增长量由高到低的顺序分别为:偏阳生境>全荫湿润生境>灌丛遮荫生境,生长旺期为雨季约6 ~10月份;秋季萌发越年生实生苗生长节律与当年生实生苗相似,但生长周期不同于雨季萌发苗,需经过两个冬季才能开花结实完成其生活史;紫茎泽兰生活史循环过程,通过有性生殖与无性生殖相互补的繁殖策略进行种群的更新与扩散,进而达到入侵的目的。   泽兰实蝇(Procecidochares utilis)作为天敌控制紫茎泽兰已经在国内外得到广泛的应用,但关于它对紫茎泽兰控制的有效性和防治现状的研究尚不深入。本文通过对攀西地区紫茎泽兰入侵危害严重的路域生态系统中泽兰实蝇寄生状况的抽样调查,初步研究了泽兰实蝇对紫茎泽兰生长,特别是生殖能力的影响。研究结果表明:1)植株寄生率与枝条寄生率有显著差异(p﹤0.05),分别为71.67% 和17.30%,前者显著高于后者;样方调查结果显示,成熟群落中枝条寄生率为17.48枝•m-2;1虫瘿•枝条-1的枝条占所有寄生枝条的92.30%;2)湿润生境下紫茎泽兰的枝条寄生率为20.27%,显著高于干旱生境下的枝条寄生率(9.33%)(p﹤0.05);3)不同年龄植株枝条寄生率有差异,0 ~1年生植株枝条寄生率分别为36.36%和21.56%,显著高于2 ~4年生的植株枝条寄生率,后者分别为13.50%,8.82%及12.16%(p﹤0.05);4)在目前的寄生强度下,泽兰实蝇对紫茎泽兰枝条的直径、花枝量、头状花序数及结实量均无显著影响(p﹥0.05)。因此可以推断,目前单一的引进泽兰实蝇进行天敌控制不能达到预期的防治目标,天敌的引入也应慎重考虑。   紫茎泽兰能够利用与当地大多数植物种类生长节律的时间差异,通过首先占领时间生态位而达到占据空间生态位,最终导致严重的入侵危害。在不同类型的群落中,紫茎泽兰种群利用不同的适应策略进行入侵。自然和人工播种样地中,紫茎泽兰种群与群落状况的变化规律均呈相反趋势。对于一个成熟的紫茎泽兰种群,一旦其定居后即能很好的利用时间和空间生态位的空缺的来促进其优势地位的增强和巩固,从而逐渐增加其入侵程度,造成越来越大的灾害;而对于一个郁蔽度较好且较完整的群落,紫茎泽兰通过幼苗进行扩张以达到入侵的途径通常比较困难,只有在发生人为活动干扰时,才有可能通过投机式繁殖方式进入群落内部定居,继而通过克隆生殖的方式进行入侵。

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Acartia and Paracartia species, often known to co-occur, can exhibit complex life cycles, including the production of resting eggs. Studying and understanding their population dynamics is hindered by the inability to identify eggs and early developmental stages using morphological techniques. We have developed a simple molecular technique to distinguish between the three species of the Acartiidae family (Acartia clausi, A. discaudata and Paracartia grani) that co-occur in the Thau lagoon (43�250N; 03�400E) in southern France. Direct amplification of a partial region of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene by polymerase chain reaction and subsequent restriction fragment length polymorphism results in a unique restriction profile for each species. The technique is capable of determining the identity of individual eggs, including resting eggs retrieved from sediment samples, illustrating its application in facilitating population dynamic studies of this ubiquitous and important member of the zooplankton community.

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Intraguild predation (IGP) is common in communities, yet theory suggests it should not often persist and coexistence of participating species should be rare. As parasitism can play keystone roles in interactions between competitors, and between predators and prey, here we examine the role of parasites in maintaining IGP. We used numerical exploration of population dynamic equations to determine coexistence and exclusion zones for two species engaged in IGP with shared parasitism. We demonstrate that parasitism increases the range of conditions leading to coexistence when the parasite exerts a greater deleterious effect on the 'stronger' species in terms of the combined effects of competition and predation. Such a parasite can enable an inferior competitor that is also the less predatory to persist, and may actually lead to numerical dominance of this species.

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A review of extinction risk analysis and viability methods is presented. The importance of environmental, demographic and genetic uncertainties, as well as the role of catastrophes are successively considered, and different approaches aiming at the integration of these risk factors in predictive population dynamic models are discussed.

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En Colombia la dinámica poblacional ha experimentado cambios a través de los años; lo cual modifica las características epidemiológicas y los perfiles de morbimortalidad de la población, aumentando la incidencia y prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas de difícil pronóstico dentro de la población; siendo estos grupos etarios hacía quienes deben destinarse nuevas modalidades de atención y soporte paliativo. Se realizó una revisión sistemática de diversos artículos, clasificados con niveles de evidencia I y II; cuyas variables de análisis fueron: El lugar de fallecimiento del paciente, alivio de la sintomatología, nivel de satisfacción del paciente y sus cuidadores con los servicios recibidos, número de ingresos hospitalarios independientemente de la causa y días promedio de estancia hospitalaria. El 88% de los pacientes que fueron vinculados a la atención domiciliaria falleció en su hogar; el 68% refirió haber experimentado disminución en la intensidad de al menos 2 síntomas como resultado de la atención en casa. El nivel de satisfacción para el cuidado en casa puntuó 19 puntos porcentuales por encima de la calificación que obtuvo el manejo hospitalario. El 23% de los pacientes tratados en su hogar, requirió al menos una hospitalización durante el manejo; mostrando una disminución en el tiempo de estancia hospitalaria de 3.4 días promedio. El manejo paliativo domiciliario de pacientes crónicos en fase terminal, no sólo es una alternativa en la reducción de costos para el sistema de salud, sino que es un factor protector de tipo emocional que refleja también una importante disminución de los riesgos de la hospitalización.

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In previous empirical and modelling studies of rare species and weeds, evidence of fractal behaviour has been found. We propose that weeds in modern agricultural systems may be managed close to critical population dynamic thresholds, below which their rates of increase will be negative and where scale-invariance may be expected as a consequence. We collected detailed spatial data on five contrasting species over a period of three years in a primarily arable field. Counts in 20×20 cm contiguous quadrats, 225,000 in 1998 and 84,375 thereafter, could be re-structured into a wide range of larger quadrat sizes. These were analysed using three methods based on correlation sum, incidence and conditional incidence. We found non-trivial scale invariance for species occurring at low mean densities and where they were strongly aggregated. The fact that the scale-invariance was not found for widespread species occurring at higher densities suggests that the scaling in agricultural weed populations may, indeed, be related to critical phenomena.

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Tropical environments often face strong seasonal variations in climate, such as alternate periods of dry and rain, that may often be important influence in the annual X the organisms lives. Here we assess how population dynamics of two butterfly species (Heliconius erato and Heliconius mepomene) respond to environmental and seasonal variations. A mark-release-recapture study carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve, 15 Km from Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, for 3 years, during the dry and rainy season, with three visits weekly done. Information such as species, wing lenght, site of capture, pollen load and phenotype (number of spots) (in H. erato only) were noted for each capture. Seasonal variation exists in capture rates of the two species, with great capture rates during the rainy season. Despite finding differences in the mean density of individuals of the two species among the different collection areas, this difference was only significant between floodplain and central areas, and no influence of seasonality was observed in the mean density between the areas. Seasonality in wing size was only observed for H. erato, with larger wings during the rainy season. Females carried larger pollen loads than males both species, but species were similar. Only males differed seasonally, with larger pollen loads during the rainy season. The distribution of the number of wing spots did not vary between the dry and rainy seasons, and the number of spots in males and females was similar. Therefore, we conclude that there was a strong influence of seasonal variation in the population dynamic of the two Heliconius species, as well as in several aspects of their biology