A categorical data analysis approach to estimation of demographic characteristics for Texas county populations

The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossils from ODP sites 115-711 and 120-748 in the Indian Ocean

An Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic framework for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 748 in the southern Indian Ocean is established, which provides a foundation for this and future quantitative biogeographic studies. This biostratigraphic analysis, together with quantitative nannofossil data, enables a reinterpretation of the preliminary magnetostratigraphy and a new placement for magnetic Subchron CBN in the lowermost Oligocene. Calcareous nannofossil species diversity is low at Site 748 relative to lower latitude sites, with about 13 taxa in the middle Eocene, gradually decreasing to about 6 in the late Oligocene. There is, however, no apparent mass extinction at any stratigraphic level. Similarly, no mass extinctions were recorded at or near the Eocene/Oligocene boundary at Site 711 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Species diversity at the equatorial site is significantly higher than at Site 748, with a maximum of 39 species in the middle Eocene and a minimum of 14 species in the late Oligocene. The abundance patterns of nannofossil taxa are also quite different at the two sites, with chiasmoliths, Isthmolithus recurvus, and Reticulofenestra daviesii abundant and restricted to the high-latitude site and Coccolithus formosus, discoasters, and sphenoliths abundant at the equatorial site but impoverished at the high-latitude site. This indicates a significant latitudinal biogeographic gradient between the equatorial site and the high-latitude site in the Indian Ocean for the middle Eocene-Oligocene interval. The abundance change of warm-water taxa is similar to that of species diversity at Site 711. There is a general trend of decreasing abundance of warm-water taxa from the middle Eocene through the early Oligocene at Site 711, suggesting a gradual cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The abundance of warm-water taxa increased in the late Oligocene, in association with an increase in species diversity, and this may reflect a warming of the surface waters in the late Oligocene. An abrupt increase in the abundance of cool-water taxa (from ~20% to over 90%) occurred from 36.3 to 35.9 Ma at high-latitude Site 748. Coincident with this event was a ~1.0 per mil positive shift in the delta18O value of planktonic foraminifers and the occurrence of ice-rafted debris. This abrupt change in the nannofossil population is a useful biostratigraphic event for locating the bottom of magnetic Subchron C13N in the Southern Ocean. The sharp increase in cool-water taxa coeval with a large positive shift in delta18O values suggests that the high-latitude surface waters drastically cooled around 36.3-35.9 Ma. The temperature drop is estimated to be 4°C or more at Site 748 based on the nannofossil population change relative to the latitudinal biogeographic gradient established in the South Atlantic Ocean during previous studies. Consequently, much of the delta18O increase at Site 748 appears to be due to a temperature drop in the high latitudes rather than an ice-volume signal. The ~0.1 per mil delta18O increase not accounted for by the temperature drop is attributed to an ice-volume increase of 4.6 * 10**3 km**3, or 20% the size of the present Antarctic ice sheet.

Qualidade de vida e vulnerabilidade ao stress dos cuidadores formais de uma unidade de cuidados continuados integrados do Alentejo

Viver um maior número de anos não significa necessariamente que se viva com qualidade. Devido às alterações demográficas verificadas nos últimos anos e face ao envelhecimento progressivo da população mundial e consequente aumento da esperança média de vida, ao acréscimo das doenças crónicas e à dependência a elas associada, surgem dificuldades que os doentes e os seus cuidadores enfrentam no seu quotidiano de internamento. Assim, surgiu a necessidade de equacionar a problemática da Qualidade de Vida e a Vulnerabilidade ao Stress dos Cuidadores Formais, que diariamente trabalham numa Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados do Alentejo. Este trabalho foi desenvolvido numa Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados com duas valências de internamento, a Média e a Longa Duração, com os Cuidadores Formais que nele aceitaram participar. Entre eles, encontram-se as mais diversas profissões, desde Auxiliares de Lar, Enfermeiros, Fisioterapeutas, Psicólogos, Animadores Socioculturais, Técnicos de Psicomotricidade, Terapeutas da Fala e Assistentes Sociais. Todos eles representam um papel muito importante no cuidado aos seus clientes, cada um na sua área. Ao delinear este estudo, o Problema prático identificado foi se existia uma relação entre a Qualidade de Vida e a Vulnerabilidade ao Stress dos Cuidadores Formais de uma Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados do Alentejo. Este estudo foi desenvolvido com uma população de 63 elementos, todos Cuidadores Formais a desempenhar funções no local de estudo já referenciado. Foi utilizada a abordagem quantitativa, que é uma metodologia de investigação de vertente epistemológica positivista. Neste estudo, foram utilizados dois instrumentos para aplicar e recolher os dados: um destinado a medir a vulnerabilidade ao stress (23 QVS) dos cuidadores formais; outro para avaliar a qualidade de vida (WHOQOL-Bref), gentilmente cedidos pelos seus autores. Os dados recolhidos, após analisados apontaram no sentido de que à medida que a qualidade de vida aumentava nos diferentes domínios, diminuía a vulnerabilidade ao stress.

Kenosha County, Wisconsin, study : report /

Title from cover.

Changes in the Ecology and Abundance of Smallmouth Bass in Lake Ontario: 1958-2014

Understanding the reasons for long-term population change in a species requires an evaluation of ecological variables that may account for the observed dynamics. In this study, long-term changes in indices of Smallmouth Bass condition and population levels were examined for eastern Lake Ontario and the Bay of Quinte. Smallmouth Bass are an extremely important recreational fish species native to Lake Ontario. They have experienced numerous changes in their environment through direct human impacts, climate change, predation, and habitat sharing with non-native species. Smallmouth Bass have experienced an increase in body length and weight likely due to a diet shift from crayfish to predominantly Round Gobies which has allowed them to increase their growth rate. According to existing assessment data however, this increase in body size has not been associated with an increase in abundance. Long-term data from gill net sampling shows that Smallmouth Bass populations have been declining since the late 1980s with no indication of recovery. This could be due to a variety of factors, but it is most likely due to a change in the selectivity of gill nets because of the change in body size as well as a habitat shift away from gill net sampling sites. Adjusting for gill net selectivity has revealed that sub-adult bass abundance is currently greater than it was historically, and that very large bass are likely not being retained within the gill nets that are currently used. The use of a long-term data set in this study has led to a much better understanding of Smallmouth Bass abundance and ecology.

Changes in the Ecology and Abundance of Smallmouth Bass in Lake Ontario: 1958-2014

Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2016-10-04 08:39:25.778

Young adults in rural tourism areas

This thesis examines how tourism affects conditions for young adults in rural areas. Such a study lies at the intersection of research about tourism impacts, adult transition, and rural areas. The aim is to examine how largescale tourism affects the opportunities for young adults living in rural areas; their perception of place and the perceived opportunities and obstacles that tourism provides. The thesis utilizes a mixed method approach. A quantitative study based on micro-data on individuals identifies the patterns and magnitudes of the mechanisms by which tourism affects population change among young adults. Interview methods are used in the case study area, Sälen, to investigate these mechanisms in depth. Finally, the rural–urban dichotomy is explored in a conceptual study that asks how tourism affects the perception of a local village as either rural or urban. Young inhabitants in rural areas are rarely considered in tourism research; therefore, the main contribution of this thesis is that it illuminates how tourism affects conditions for young adults in rural areas. The thesis reveals a substantial impact on the adult transition, mainly due to easier access to the labor market and a good supply of jobs during the high season. Further, the large number of people passing through creates flows of opportunities to make friends, get a job, or just meet people. All of these factors contribute to high mobility in these places, and to the perception of them as places where things happen. The high mobility in Sälen implies that fixed migrant categories (such as stayers and leavers) are largely insufficient. The tourism environment creates a space that is always under construction and continually producing new social relations mainly perceived as opportunities. Conceptualizing this as a modern rurality is a way to move beyond the often implicit notions of urban as modern and rural as traditional.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Behaviour change at population, community and individual levels: NICE Public Health Guidance 6

This guidance is aimed at those responsible for helping people to change their behaviour to improve their health. This includes policy makers and those working in local authorities and the community and voluntary sectors. It gives advice on how to plan and run relevant initiatives. The recommendations include the following advice: base interventions on a proper assessment of the target group, where they are located and the behaviour which is to be changed: careful planning is the cornerstone of success  work with other organisations and the community itself to decide on and develop initiatives build on the skills and knowledge that already exists in the community, for example, by encouraging networks of people who can support each other take account of and resolve problems that prevent people changing their behaviour (for example, the costs involved in taking part in exercise programmes or buying fresh fruit and vegetables, or lack of knowledge about how to make changes) base all interventions on evidence of what works train staff to help people change their behaviour evaluate all interventions.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptive change: on the intersection of landscape genomics and theoretical population genetics

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.