The development of a carrying capacity assessment model for the Australian socio-environmental context

A key aim of this research was to highlight how society's understanding of constraints to the productive capacity of its resource base is vital to its long-term survival. This was achieved through the development of an online model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. The Dashboard was developed to estimate how much land Australian populations require for the production of their food, textiles, timber and liquid fuel. Findings reveal that Australia's estimated carrying capacity is currently over 40 million people but longer-term and more regional analyses suggest a much smaller number. Carrying capacity assessment also indicates that optimal resource security is to be found in balancing both small and large-scale self-sufficiency.

Energy Transformed : Building Capacity in the Engineering Profession in Australia

Global pressures of burgeoning population growth and consumption are threatening efforts to reduce negative environmental pressures associated with development such as atmospheric, land and water pollution. For example, the world’s population is now growing at over 70 million per year or 1 billion per decade (Brown, 2007), increasing from 3.5 billion in 1970, to 5 billion in 1990, to 7 billion by 2010 (United Nations, 2002). In 1990 only 13 percent of the global population lived in cities, while in 2007 more than half did. More than 60 percent of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of the coastline (World Resources Institute, 2005) and nearly all of the population growth hereon is forecast to happen in developing countries (Postel, 1999). Future levels of stress on the global environment are therefore likely to increase if current trends are used for forecasting, which is particularly challenging as scientists are already observing significant signs of degradation and failure in environmental systems. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) provided an nequivocal link between climate change and current human activities, in particular: the burning of fossil fuels; deforestation and land clearing; the use of synthetic greenhouse gases; and decomposition of wastes from landfill. The UK Stern Review concluded that within our lifetime there is between a 77 to 99 percent chance (depending on the climate model used) of the global average temperature rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (Stern, 2006), with a likely greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere of 550 parts per million (ppm) or more by around 2100.

Assessing capacity in the context of testamentary, enduring power of attorney, and advance care directive documents in Australia

Balancing the competing interests of autonomy and protection of individuals is an escalating challenge confronting an ageing Australian population. Legal and medical professionals are increasingly being asked to determine whether individuals are legally capable to make their own testamentary, financial and/or personal/health care decisions. Diseases such as dementia impact upon cognition which necessitates collaboration between the legal and medical professions to satisfactorily assess the effect of such mentally disabling conditions upon legal competency. Terminological and methodological differences exist between the two professions when assessing capacity in this context which subsequently create miscommunication and misunderstanding. Consequently, it is not necessarily a simple solution for a legal professional to seek the opinion of a medical practitioner. Exacerbating the situation is the fact that no consistent and transparent capacity assessment paradigm currently exists in Australia. Assessments are instead being undertaken on an ad hoc basis dependent upon the skill set of the legal and/or medical professionals involved. A qualitative study seeking the views of legal and medical professionals who practise in this area has been conducted. This incorporated a review of the relevant literature and surveys which informed the semi-structured interviews conducted with 10 legal and 20 medical practitioners. Practitioners were asked whether there is a standard approach to assessment and whether national guidelines would assist. The general consensus was that uniform guidelines would be advantageous. The research also canvassed practitioner views as to the state of the relationship between the professions when assessing capacity. Three promising practices have emerged from this research: first, is the need for the development of national guidelines and supporting principles to satisfactorily assess capacity; second, is the possibility of strengthening the relationship between legal and medical professionals to assist in the satisfactory assessment of legal capacity; and third, the need for increased community education.

Enhancing the capacity of kin caregivers and their families to meet the needs of children left behind

Based on qualitative research of the experiences of 23 kin caregivers and five school personnel, this article explores the role of informal kinship care in addressing the needs of school-age children left behind in rural China. The findings of this study suggest that kin caregivers' child-rearing capacity is limited in the rural context, and they are often overwhelmed by children's diverse and complex needs, particularly their emotional ones. In view of the huge population and their vulnerability, it is imperative for the state to take up its responsibilities and develop specific social work services and other support for children left behind and their families. 根据对23位亲属照顾者和5位学校人员的质性研究，文章探讨在处理中国留守学龄儿童的需要时，非正式亲属照料所担当的角色。研究发现，在农村的亲属照料者的抚养儿童能力有限，而且他们时常在面对儿童众多复杂的需求时应接不暇，问题又以情绪需要尤甚。有见于留守儿童的数目众多和易受伤害，政府急切需要承担相关的责任，为留守儿童及其家庭发展专门的社会工作服务和其他支援。

Scalar considerations in carrying capacity assessment : an Australian example

Regional resource self-sufficiency has been proposed as a way to improve food security by lessening the demand on long-distance transport. An online tool, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, was developed for Australian conditions in order to gauge self-sufficiency at three different scales: regional, state and national. It allows users to test a variety of societal behaviours such as diet, biofuel production, farming systems and ecological protection practices. Analysis developed from the Dashboard tests the effects of various resource consumption patterns on land carrying capacity. Findings reveal that Australia’s current carrying capacity is estimated to be over 40 million, but if calculated on a regional basis, this is reduced by almost half.

The role of university research centres in building road safety capacity : implications for China

In recent decades, highly motorised countries, such as Australia, have witnessed significant improvements in population health through reductions in fatalities and injuries from road traffic crashes. In Australia, concerted efforts have been made to reduce the road trauma burden since road fatalities reached their highest level in in the early 1970s. Since that time, many improvements have been made drawing on various disciplines to reduce the trauma burden (e.g., road and vehicle design, road user education, traffic law enforcement practices and enforcement technologies). While road fatalities have declined significantly since the mid-1970s, road trauma remains a serious public health concern in Australia. China has recently become the largest car market in the world (Ma, Li, Zhou, Duan, & Bishai, 2012). This rapid motorisation has been accompanied by substantial expansion of the road network as well as a large road trauma burden. Road traffic injuries are a major cause of death in China, reported as accounting for one third of all injury-deaths between 2002 and 2006 (Ma et al., 2012). In common with Australia, China has experienced a reported decline in fatalities since 2002 (see Hu, Wen & Baker, 2008). However, there remains a strong need for action in this area as rates of motorisation continue to climb in China. In Australia, a wide range of organisations have contributed to the improvements in road safety including government agencies, professional organisations, advocacy groups and research centres. In particular, Australia has several highly regarded and multi-disciplinary, university-based research centres that work across a range of road safety fields, including engineering, intelligent transportation systems, the psychology of road user behaviour, and traffic law enforcement. Besides conducting high-quality research, these centres fulfil an important advocacy role in promoting safer road use and facilitating collaborations with government and other agencies, at both the national and international level. To illustrate the role of these centres, an overview will be provided of the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety-Queensland (CARRS-Q), which was established in 1996 and has gone on to become a recognised world-leader in road safety and injury prevention research. The Centre’s research findings are used to provide evidence-based recommendations to government and have directly contributed to promoting safer road use in Australia. Since 2006, CARRS-Q has also developed strong collaborative links with various universities and organisations in China to assist in building understanding, connections and capacity to assist in reducing the road trauma burden. References Hu, G., Wen, M., Baker, T. D., & Baker, S. P. (2008). Road-traffic deaths in China, 1985–2005: threat and opportunity. Injury Prevention, 14, 149-153. Ma, S., Li, Q., Zhou, M., Duan, L., & Bishai, D. (2012). Road Traffic Injury in China: A Review of National Data Sources. Traffic Injury Prevention, 13(S1), 57-63.

Assessment of the concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants in the Australian population : levels in blood

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a common class of brominated flame retardants, are a ubiquitous part of our built environment, and for many years have contributed to improved public safety by reducing the flammability of everyday goods. Recently, PBDEs have come under increased international attention because of their potential to impact upon the environment and human health. Some PBDE compounds have been nominated for possible inclusion on the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, to which Australia is a Party. Work under the Stockholm Convention has demonstrated the capacity of some PBDEs to persist and accumulate in the environment and to be carried long distances. Much is unknown about the impact of PBDEs on living organisms, however recent studies show that some PBDEs can inhibit growth in colonies of plankton and algae and depress the reproduction of zooplankton. Laboratory mice and rats have also shown liver disturbances and damage to developing nervous systems as a result of exposure to PBDEs. In 2004, the Australian Government Department of the Environment and Water Resources began three studies to examine levels of PBDEs in aquatic sediments, indoor environments and human blood, as knowledge about PBDEs in Australia was very limited. The aim of these studies was to improve this knowledge base so that governments were in a better position to consider appropriate management actions. Due to the high costs for laboratory analysis of PBDEs, the number of samples collected for each study was limited and so caution is required when interpreting the findings. Nevertheless, these studies will provide governments with an indication of how prevalent PBDEs are in the Australian population and the environment and will also contribute to international knowledge about these chemicals. The Department of the Environment and Water Resources will be working closely with othergovernment agencies, industry and the community to investigate any further action that may be required to address PBDEs in Australia.

Assessing testamentary capacity – who does it better? Lawyers or doctors?

The effects of mentally disabling conditions on legal capacity are escalating, particularly given the ageing Australian demographic. Wills, enduring powers of attorney, and advance health directives are coming to the fore as a means of ensuring that the wishes of people with regard to their property, finances and health care needs are respected should they become legally incapable of making their own decisions. Assessing when a person has lost legal capacity in this context is an ever-increasing concern facing society as a whole but, in particular, the legal and medical professionals conducting the assessments. Empirical and doctrinal research has been undertaken which canvassed legal and medical opinions about the relationship between members of these professions when assessing legal capacity. This research supports the hypothesis that tensions exist when assessing capacity, especially testamentary capacity. One source of tension is the effect of conflicting evidence about the loss of legal capacity given by legal and medical professionals in court, which raises questions such as: which evidence is, and should be, preferred; and who should be responsible? The exploration of these issues will be conducted with reference to the empirical data collected, and a review of the relevant Australian case law.

Community uses of co-creative media digital storytelling and co-creative Media: The role of community arts and media in propagating and coordinating population-wide creative practice

How is creative expression and communication extended among whole populations? What is the social and cultural value of this activity? What roles do formal agencies, community-based organisations and content producer networks play? Specifically, how do participatory media and arts projects and networks contribute to building this capacity in the contemporary communications environment? The latest issue of CSJ article in a special issue on “Broadening Digital Storytelling Horizons” edited by Burcu Simsek.

On the moulding of population viscosity by natural selection

In this paper, we explore the conjoint evolution of dispersal and social behaviour. The model investigated is of a population distributed over a number of sites each with a carrying capacity of two adults and an episode of dispersal in the juvenile stage. The fertilities are governed by whether an individual and its neighbour are selfish or co-operative. It is shown that the best dispersal strategy for the co-operative genotype always involves lower levels of dispersal; and further that ecological conditions favouring low levels of dispersal increase the selective advantage of a co-operative genotype. Given this positive feedback, we suggest that in any taxon viscosity and co-operativity will tend to be correlated and bimodally distributed. Hence we predict the existence of two kinds of animal societies; viscous and co-operative (e.g. quasi-social wasps such as Mischocyttarus), and non-viscous and selfish (e.g. communal sphecid wasps such as Cerceris), and relatively few social groups with intermediate levels of co-operativity and viscosity. We also suggest that when one of the two sexes disperses, it will be the sex with lower potential for co-operative behaviour.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Human mesenchymal stem cells retain multilineage differentiation capacity including neural marker expression after extended in vitro expansion

The suitability of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) in regenerative medicine relies on retention of their proliferative expansion potential in conjunction with the ability to differentiate toward multiple lineages. Successful utilisation of these cells in clinical applications linked to tissue regeneration requires consideration of biomarker expression, time in culture and donor age, as well as their ability to differentiate towards mesenchymal (bone, cartilage, fat) or non-mesenchymal (e.g., neural) lineages. To identify potential therapeutic suitability we examined hMSCs after extended expansion including morphological changes, potency (stemness) and multilineage potential. Commercially available hMSC populations were expanded in vitro for > 20 passages, equating to > 60 days and > 50 population doublings. Distinct growth phases (A-C) were observed during serial passaging and cells were characterised for stemness and lineage markers at representative stages (Phase A: P+5, approximately 13 days in culture; Phase B: P+7, approximately 20 days in culture; and Phase C: P+13, approximately 43 days in culture). Cell surface markers, stem cell markers and lineage-specific markers were characterised by FACS, ICC and Q-PCR revealing MSCs maintained their multilineage potential, including neural lineages throughout expansion. Co-expression of multiple lineage markers along with continued CD45 expression in MSCs did not affect completion of osteogenic and adipogenic specification or the formation of neurospheres. Improved standardised isolation and characterisation of MSCs may facilitate the identification of biomarkers to improve therapeutic efficacy to ensure increased reproducibility and routine production of MSCs for therapeutic applications including neural repair.

Spirometric studies on the adult general population of Helsinki : bronchodilation responses, determinants, and intrasession repeatability of FEV1, FEV6, FVC, and forced expiratory time

Spirometry is the most widely used lung function test in the world. It is fundamental in diagnostic and functional evaluation of various pulmonary diseases. In the studies described in this thesis, the spirometric assessment of reversibility of bronchial obstruction, its determinants, and variation features are described in a general population sample from Helsinki, Finland. This study is a part of the FinEsS study, which is a collaborative study of clinical epidemiology of respiratory health between Finland (Fin), Estonia (Es), and Sweden (S). Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute the two major obstructive airways diseases. The prevalence of asthma has increased, with around 6% of the population in Helsinki reporting physician-diagnosed asthma. The main cause of COPD is smoking with changes in smoking habits in the population affecting its prevalence with a delay. Whereas airway obstruction in asthma is by definition reversible, COPD is characterized by fixed obstruction. Cough and sputum production, the first symptoms of COPD, are often misinterpreted for smokers cough and not recognized as first signs of a chronic illness. Therefore COPD is widely underdiagnosed. More extensive use of spirometry in primary care is advocated to focus smoking cessation interventions on populations at risk. The use of forced expiratory volume in six seconds (FEV6) instead of forced vital capacity (FVC) has been suggested to enable office spirometry to be used in earlier detection of airflow limitation. Despite being a widely accepted standard method of assessment of lung function, the methodology and interpretation of spirometry are constantly developing. In 2005, the ATS/ERS Task Force issued a joint statement which endorsed the 12% and 200 ml thresholds for significant change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or FVC during bronchodilation testing, but included the notion that in cases where only FVC improves it should be verified that this is not caused by a longer exhalation time in post-bronchodilator spirometry. This elicited new interest in the assessment of forced expiratory time (FET), a spirometric variable not usually reported or used in assessment. In this population sample, we examined FET and found it to be on average 10.7 (SD 4.3) s and to increase with ageing and airflow limitation in spirometry. The intrasession repeatability of FET was the poorest of the spirometric variables assessed. Based on the intrasession repeatability, a limit for significant change of 3 s was suggested for FET during bronchodilation testing. FEV6 was found to perform equally well as FVC in the population and in a subgroup of subjects with airways obstruction. In the bronchodilation test, decreases were frequently observed in FEV1 and particularly in FVC. The limit of significant increase based on the 95th percentile of the population sample was 9% for FEV1 and 6% for FEV6 and FVC; these are slightly lower than the current limits for single bronchodilation tests (ATS/ERS guidelines). FEV6 was proven as a valid alternative to FVC also in the bronchodilation test and would remove the need to control duration of exhalation during the spirometric bronchodilation test.

Reduced visual function and its association with physical functioning in the Finnish adult population : Prevalence, causes, and need for eye care services

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of reduced visual acuity, major chronic eye diseases, and subsequent need for eye care services in the Finnish adult population comprising persons aged 30 years and older. In addition, we analyzed the effect of decreased vision on functioning and need for assistance using the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a framework. The study was based on the Health 2000 health examination survey, a nationally representative population-based comprehensive survey of health and functional capacity carried out in 2000 to 2001 in Finland. The study sample representing the Finnish population aged 30 years and older was drawn by a two-stage stratified cluster sampling. The Health 2000 survey included a home interview and a comprehensive health examination conducted at a nearby screening center. If the invited participants did not attend, an abridged examination was conducted at home or in an institution. Based on our finding in participants, the great majority (96%) of Finnish adults had at least moderate visual acuity (VA ≥ 0.5) with current refraction correction, if any. However, in the age group 75–84 years the prevalence decreased to 81%, and after 85 years to 46%. In the population aged 30 years and older, the prevalence of habitual visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) was 1.6%, and 0.5% were blind (VA < 0.1). The prevalence of visual impairment increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), and after the age of 65 years the increase was sharp. Visual impairment was equally common for both sexes (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.82 – 1.74). Based on self-reported and/or register-based data, the estimated total prevalences of cataract, glaucoma, age-related maculopathy (ARM), and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the study population were 10%, 5%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. The prevalence of all of these chronic eye diseases increased with age (p < 0.001). Cataract and glaucoma were more common in women than in men (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26 – 1.91 and OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.98, respectively). The most prevalent eye diseases in people with visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) were ARM (37%), unoperated cataract (27%), glaucoma (22%), and DR (7%). One-half (58%) of visually impaired people had had a vision examination during the past five years, and 79% had received some vision rehabilitation services, mainly in the form of spectacles (70%). Only one-third (31%) had received formal low vision rehabilitation (i.e., fitting of low vision aids, receiving patient education, training for orientation and mobility, training for activities of daily living (ADL), or consultation with a social worker). People with low vision (VA 0.1 – 0.25) were less likely to have received formal low vision rehabilitation, magnifying glasses, or other low vision aids than blind people (VA < 0.1). Furthermore, low cognitive capacity and living in an institution were associated with limited use of vision rehabilitation services. Of the visually impaired living in the community, 71% reported a need for assistance and 24% had an unmet need for assistance in everyday activities. Prevalence of ADL, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility increased with decreasing VA (p < 0.001). Visually impaired persons (VA ≤ 0.25) were four times more likely to have ADL disabilities than those with good VA (VA ≥ 0.8) after adjustment for sociodemographic and behavioral factors and chronic conditions (OR 4.36, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78). Limitations in IADL and measured mobility were five times as likely (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.38 – 9.76 and OR 5.37, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78, respectively) and self-reported mobility limitations were three times as likely (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.67 – 9.63) as in persons with good VA. The high prevalence of age-related eye diseases and subsequent visual impairment in the fastest growing segment of the population will result in a substantial increase in the demand for eye care services in the future. Many of the visually impaired, especially older persons with decreased cognitive capacity or living in an institution, have not had a recent vision examination and lack adequate low vision rehabilitation. This highlights the need for regular evaluation of visual function in the elderly and an active dissemination of information about rehabilitation services. Decreased VA is strongly associated with functional limitations, and even a slight decrease in VA was found to be associated with limited functioning. Thus, continuous efforts are needed to identify and treat eye diseases to maintain patients’ quality of life and to alleviate the social and economic burden of serious eye diseases.