A positive theory of geographic mobility and social insurance

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model thatcan explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility,unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote overunemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects ofinsurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration.Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their currentlocation, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent'sattachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UIreduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, thefraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The mainresult is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiplesteady-states-one 'European' steady-state featuring high unemployment,low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one'American' steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility andlow unemployment insurance.

Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?

[spa] En este trabajo analizamos la hipótesis que las transferencias asignadas a los municipios políticamente alineados generan un mayor apoyo político que las transferencias asignada a los municipios gobernados por la oposición. Para contrastar esta hipótesis utilizamos datos de las transferencias recibidas por 617 municipios españoles procedentes de dos niveles de gobierno superiores (Regional o Autonómico y Supra-Local o Diputaciones) durante el período 1993-2003, así como datos de los votos obtenidos en las tres elecciones celebradas en los diferentes niveles de gobierno durante este período.

Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?

[spa] En este trabajo analizamos la hipótesis que las transferencias asignadas a los municipios políticamente alineados generan un mayor apoyo político que las transferencias asignada a los municipios gobernados por la oposición. Para contrastar esta hipótesis utilizamos datos de las transferencias recibidas por 617 municipios españoles procedentes de dos niveles de gobierno superiores (Regional o Autonómico y Supra-Local o Diputaciones) durante el período 1993-2003, así como datos de los votos obtenidos en las tres elecciones celebradas en los diferentes niveles de gobierno durante este período.

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise. Economic Ideas and immigration Control Reforms in switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the "epistemic community" of free-market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a "credible causal story" about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context

Challenges to the implementation of behavioural survellance for HIV/STI in Europe

Background: Well-conducted behavioural surveillance (BS) is essential for policy planning and evaluation. Data should be comparable across countries. In 2008, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) began a programme to support Member States in the implementation of BS for Second Generation Surveillance. Methods: Data from a mapping exercise on current BS activities in EU/EFTA countries led to recommendations for establishing national BS systems and international coordination, and the definition of a set of core and transversal (UNGASS-Dublin compatible) indicators for BS in the general and eight specific populations. A toolkit for establishing BS has been developed and a BS needs-assessment survey has been launched in 30 countries. Tools for BS self-assessment and planning are currently being tested during interactive workshops with country representatives. Results: The mapping exercise revealed extreme diversity between countries. Around half had established a BS system, but this did not always correspond to the epidemiological situation. Challenges to implementation and harmonisation at all levels emerged from survey findings and workshop feedback. These include: absence of synergy between biological and behavioural surveillance and of actors having an overall view of all system elements; lack of awareness of the relevance of BS and of coordination between agencies; insufficient use of available data; financial constraints; poor sustainability, data quality and access to certain key populations; unfavourable legislative environments. Conclusions: There is widespread need in the region not only for technical support but also for BS advocacy: BS remains the neglected partner of second generation surveillance and requires increased political support and capacity-building in order to become effective. Dissemination of validated tools for BS, developed in interaction with country experts, proves feasible and acceptable.

Commercialization of Modern Renewable Energy

The threat of global warming and its consequences are widely recognized, and the question of how to proceed with the long transition towards fossil fuel -neutral economies concerns many nations and people. At the same time the world’s primary energy use is predicted to increase significantly during the next decades as a result of global population and welfare increase. Improved energy efficiency and increased use of renewable energy sources in the world’s energy mix play important roles in the future energy production and consumption. The objective of this thesis is to study how novel renewable energy technologies, such as distributed small-scale bio-fueled combined heat and power production and wind power technologies could be commercialized efficiently. A wide array of attributes may contribute to the diffusion of new products. In general, the bioenergy and wind power technologies are in emerging phases, and the diffusion stage varies from country to country. The effects of firms’ technology choices, collaboration and alliances are studied in this thesis. Furthermore, the roles of national energy infrastructure and energy support schemes in the commercialization of new renewable energy products are explored. The empirical data is based on energy expert interviews, financial and patent data, and literature reviews of different case studies. The thesis comprises two parts. The first part provides an overview of the study, and the second part includes six research publications. The results reveal that small-scale bio-fueled combined heat and power production and wind power technologies are still in emerging phases in their life cycles, and energy support schemes are crucial in the market diffusion. The study contributes to earlier findings in the literature and industry by confirming that adequate energy policies and energy infrastructure are fundamental in the commercialization of novel renewable energy technologies. Firm-specific issues, including business relationships and new business models, and market-related issues will have a more significant role in the market penetration in the future, when the technologies mature and become competitive without political support schemes.

O social no governo Lula: a construção de um novo populismo em tempos de aplicação de uma agenda neoliberal

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main characteristics of new Lula's government support. The paper's hypothesis concentrates in the idea of starting a different political approach, "a new populism". The paper argues that Lula's government to keep in power, beyond of going on with the neoliberal project - unfinished in the last years of FHC government -, needs to build up a solid and trustful political support, which is being done by implementing income transfer programs directed to poor people and the ones with less organization experience. This paper also calls the attention to Lula's government nature, in order to clarify the difficulties which should be dealt and the tasks to be developed in building up a political party that defends workers emancipation and Brazilians exploited.

Bases políticas das transferências intergovernamentais no Brasil (1985-2004)

The politics of intergovernmental transfers in Brazil. This article examines the political economy of public resources distribution in Brazil's federal system in 1985-2004. We propose an empirical exercise to analyze how the country's federal governments deal with the tradeoff between the provision of material wellbeing to sub-national governments (the states in our study) and the pursuit of political support from the latter. To identify the determinants of the transfer of resources from the federal government to the states, a set of economic, political, and institutional variables is econometrically tested. Based upon instrumental variables estimation for panel-data models, our estimates indicate that in Brazil the pursuit of political goals prevails over social equity and economic efficiency criteria: higher levels of per capita transfers are associated with the political makeup of governing coalitions, while larger investments in infrastructure and development by the states are associated with a lower amount of per capita resources transferred to sub-national governments. Our findings also suggest a trend toward the freezing of interregional inequalities in Brazil, and show the relevance of fiscal discipline laws in discouraging the use of the administrative apparatus for electioneering.

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

Faire confiance au gouvernement? : évaluation des caractéristiques individuelles, étatiques et sociales qui sont liées à la confiance envers le gouvernement

La confiance envers le gouvernement est une notion fréquemment évoquée dans le discours public et dans la littérature, mais il s’agit d’une notion imprécise, malgré des innovations depuis sa première spécification par David Easton en tant que support systémique. Cette revue de littérature propose de faire le point sur la question de la confiance envers les gouvernements démocratiques. Je définis d’abord la confiance envers le gouvernement comme un concept relationnel et relativement stable dans le temps. Ce mémoire se penche sur 26 facteurs qui sont liés à la confiance envers le gouvernement dans trois grandes catégories : les caractéristiques individuelles, étatiques et sociales. Je démontre que les explications culturelles de la confiance sont nettement supérieures aux explications économiques, et ce à toutes les échelles. Cependant, les jeunes démocraties présentent un profil un peu différent des démocraties plus anciennes : l’économie y joue un rôle un peu plus important.

El uso del derecho de injerencia por parte de Brasil en la crisis humanitaria y política de Haití, 2004-2009 MINUSTAH

La participación en los asuntos de seguridad internacional ha adquirido mayor importancia en la política exterior de los países en vía de desarrollo en la última década. Brasil, en este tema ha liderado varios de estos procesos a nivel mundial, sin embargo su participación más importante se desarrolla en la Misión de Naciones Unidas para la Estabilización de Haití (MINUSTAH). La presente monografía pretende establecer una relación entre Brasil y Haití, teniendo como objetivo principal indagar por las razones que llevaron a Brasil a hacer uso del derecho de injerencia para participar en la MINUSTAH desde 2004 hasta el 2009; partiendo de la hipótesis que estas razones son de carácter político, enfocadas en el interés nacional como el liderazgo regional y el protagonismo mundial.

La relación del Polo Democrático Alternativo y el movimiento cafetero de la última década

El propósito de este trabajo consistió en analizar las razones por las que un sector gobiernista, consentido en la vida nacional como el cafetero, se vuelve atractivo para la izquierda, y aparentemente, receptivo hacia sus tesis y organizaciones. La pregunta que se propuso investigar fue ¿Hasta qué punto el trabajo de los miembros del PDA ante el sector cafetero repercutió en apoyo político? Para dar con su respuesta se expuso la dinámica económica del café, las organizaciones e instituciones cafeteras y finalmente los vínculos con la política. Dando así como resultado un examen de la táctica del Polo Democrático Alternativo para ganar respaldo en el sector.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

Shale Gas and the EU Internal Gas Market: Beyond the Hype and Hysteria. CEPS Working Document No. 369, September 2012

This paper analyses the interplay between shale gas and the EU internal gas market. Drawing on data presented in the 2012 International Energy Agency’s report on unconventional gas and additional scenario analyses performed by the Joint Research Centre, the paper is based on the assumption that shale gas will not fundamentally change the EU’s dependence on foreign gas supplies. It argues that attention should be shifted away from hyping shale gas to completing the internal gas market. Two main reasons are given for this. First, the internal gas market is needed to enable shale gas development in countries where there is political support for shale gas extraction. And second, a well-functioning internal gas market would, arguably, contribute much more to Europe’s security of supply than domestic shale gas exploitation. This has important implications for the shale gas industry. As it is hard to see how subsidies or exemptions from environmental legislation could be justified, shale gas development in Europe will only go ahead if it proves to be both economically and environmentally viable. It is thus up to the energy industry to demonstrate that this is the case.