A planning model for needs analysis for subacute care

The purpose of this study is to produce a model to be used by state regulating agencies to assess demand for subacute care. In accomplishing this goal, the study refines the definition of subacute care, demonstrates a method for bed need assessment, and measures the effectiveness of this new level of care. This was the largest study of subacute care to date. Research focused on 19 subacute units in 16 states, each of which provides high-intensity rehabilitative and/or restorative care carried out in a high-tech unit. Each of the facilities was based in a nursing home, but utilized separate staff, equipment, and services. Because these facilities are under local control, it was possible to study regional differences in subacute care demand.^ Using this data, a model for predicting demand for subacute care services was created, building on earlier models submitted by John Whitman for the American Hospital Association and Robin E. MacStravic. The Broderick model uses the "bootstrapping" method and takes advantage of high technology: computers and software, databases in business and government, publicly available databases from providers or commercial vendors, professional organizations, and other information sources. Using newly available sources of information, this new model addresses the problems and needs of health care planners as they approach the challenges of the 21st century. ^

A planning model for needs analysis for subacute care

The purpose of this study is to produce a model to be used by state regulating agencies to assess demand for subacute care. In accomplishing this goal, the study refines the definition of subacute care, demonstrates a method for bed need assessment, and measures the effectiveness of this new level of care. This was the largest study of subacute care to date. Research focused on 19 subacute units in 16 states, each of which provides high-intensity rehabilitative and/or restorative care carried out in a high-tech unit. Each of the facilities was based in a nursing home, but utilized separate staff, equipment, and services. Because these facilities are under local control, it was possible to study regional differences in subacute care demand. Using this data, a model for predicting demand for subacute care services was created, building on earlier models submitted by John Whitman for the American Hospital Association and Robin E. MacStravic. The Broderick model uses the "bootstrapping" method and takes advantage of high technology: computers and software, databases in business and government, publicly available databases from providers or commercial vendors, professional organizations, and other information sources. Using newly available sources of information, this new model addresses the problems and needs of health care planners as they approach the challenges of the 21st century.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Transport impact of in urban planning: the case of Transmilenio in Bogota

The growth and expansion of cities during the last century can’t be seen without taking into account the important role they have assumed in the transport infrastructure. In Bogota have passed trough streetcar, buses and automóviles was deciding for the city, because all this periods marked a drastic change in growth morphology. This article studies the planning of Mass Transit System –MTS– Transmilenio and its interaction with the urban structure, in light of the current city planning framework. It also specifies the behavior of land use in the construction of the system first phase. One of the most important findings of this study is that there is no articulation between land and transport use system, despite the decisions taken in the ordering model. Similarly, local and intermediate planning exhibits Peak articulation.The existing infrastructure of the MTS reiterates the tendency to concentrate the accessibility in one place: the center has the largest accessibility whereas periphery fails to overcome its limitations of accessibility. While the city continued with this trend the existence of a coordinated planning system for Bogota and the ability to meet expectations of planning model is questionable, however it is something that depends not only on MTS.

Planning and Projects of Secondary Electric Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a methodology to achieve integrated planning and projects for secondary distribution circuits. The planning model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to resolve this problem, a tabu search (TS) algorithm is used, with a neighborhood structure developed to explore the physical characteristics of specific geographies included in the planning and expansion of secondary networks, thus obtaining effective solutions as well as low operating costs and investments. The project stage of secondary circuits consists of calculating the mechanical efforts to determine the support structures of the primary and secondary distribution systems and determining the types of structures that should be used in the system according to topological and electrical parameters of the network and, therefore, accurately assessing the costs involved in the construction and/or reform of secondary systems. A constructive heuristic based on information of the electrical and topological conditions between the medium voltage and low voltage systems is used to connect the primary systems and secondary circuits. The results obtained from planning and design simulations of a real secondary system of electric energy distribution are presented.

Constructive heuristic algorithm in branch-and-bound structure applied to transmission network expansion planning

A constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the transmission system expansion planning problem is proposed with the aim of circumventing some critical problems of classical heuristic algorithms that employ relaxed mathematical models to calculate a sensitivity index that guides the circuit additions. The proposed heuristic algorithm is in a branch-and-bound algorithm structure, which can be used with any planning model, such as Transportation model, DC model, AC model or Hybrid models. Tests of the proposed algorithm are presented on real Brazilian systems.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

THE APPLICATION OF CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AND SUICIDE MORTALITY AS INDICATORS FOR ALCOHOLISM PLANNING

This study provides a review of the current alcoholism planning process of the Houston-Galveston planning process of the Houston-Galveston Area Council, an agency carrying out planning for a thirteen county region in surrounding Houston, Texas. The four central groups involved in this planning are identified, and the role that each plays and how it effects the planning outcomes is discussed.^ The most substantive outcome of the Houston-Galveston Area Council's alcoholism planning, the Regional Alcoholism/Alcohol Abuse Plan is examined. Many of the shortcomings in the data provided, and the lack of other data necessary for planning are offered.^ A problem oriented planning model is presented as an alternative to the Houston-Galveston Area Council's current service oriented approach to alcoholism planning. Five primary phases of the model, identification of the problem, statement of objectives, selection of alternative programs, implementation, and evaluation, are presented, and an overview of the tasks involved in the application of this model to alcoholism planning is offered.^ A specific aspect of the model, the use of problem status indicators is explored using cirrhosis and suicide mortality data. A review of the literature suggests that based on five criteria, availability, subgroup identification, validity, reliability, and sensitivity, both suicide and cirrhosis are suitable as indicators of the alcohol problem when combined with other indicators.^ Cirrhosis and suicide mortality data are examined for the thirteen county Houston-Galveston Region for the years 1969 through 1976. Data limitations preclude definite conclusions concerning the alcohol problem in the region. Three hypotheses about the nature of the regional alcohol problem are presented. First, there appears to be no linear trend in the number of alcoholics that are at risk of suicide and cirrhosis mortality. Second, the number of alcoholics in the metropolitan areas seems to be greater than the number of rural areas. Third, the number of male alcoholics at risk of cirrhosis and suicide mortality is greater than the number of female alcoholics.^

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

Integration of Timetable Planning and Rolling Stock in Rapid Transit Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated planning model to adequate the offered capacity and system frequencies to attend the increased passenger demand and traffic congestion around urban and suburban areas. The railway capacity is studied in line planning, however, these planned frequencies were obtained without accounting for rolling stock flows through the rapid transit network. In order to provide the problem more freedom to decide rolling stock flows and therefore better adjusting these flows to passenger demand, a new integrated model is proposed, where frequencies are readjusted. Then, the railway timetable and rolling stock assignment are also calculated, where shunting operations are taken into account. These operations may sometimes malfunction, causing localized incidents that could propagate throughout the entire network due to cascading effects. This type of operations will be penalized with the goal of selectively avoiding them and ameliorating their high malfunction probabilities. Swapping operations will also be ensured using homogeneous rolling stock material and ensuring parkings in strategic stations. We illustrate our model using computational experiments drawn from RENFE (the main Spanish operator of suburban passenger trains) in Madrid, Spain. The results show that through this integrated approach a greater robustness degree can be obtained

Planning and projects: three visionaires Friedmann, J., Trueba, I. and Ramos, A.

It is impossible to talk about planning as a scientific meta-discipline without mentioning one of the most influential worldwide figures in the second half of the twentieth century: John Friedmann. His contribution to the planning concept on his "Planning as Social Learning" theory is still very relevant. This paper shows the intellectual connection between Friedmann and Angel Ramos and Ignacio Trueba, two of the Spanish intellectual drivers in the engineering project knowledge area, who contributed to founding the Engineering Projects Spanish Association. The three of them share a broad vision of the project and abandon the "blue print" planning model. They also see the project as a transformational tool that requires a different planning style to the one which prevailed in the 70s - both in public and private domains. They were pioneers in structuring Knowledge / Action in a different way, both in academic institutions where disciples helped to bring about change- and with direct action via projects.

Petroleum pipeline construction planning:a conceptual framework

A cross-country pipeline construction project is exposed to an uncertain environment due to its enormous size (physical, manpower requirement and financial value), complexity in design technology and involvement of external factors. These uncertainties can lead to several changes in project scope during the process of project execution. Unless the changes are properly controlled, the time, cost and quality goals of the project may never be achieved. A methodology is proposed for project control through risk analysis, contingency allocation and hierarchical planning models. Risk analysis is carried out through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) due to the subjective nature of risks in construction projects. The results of risk analysis are used to determine the logical contingency for project control with the application of probability theory. Ultimate project control is carried out by hierarchical planning model which enables decision makers to take vital decisions during the changing environment of the construction period. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision-making technique, is proposed for model formulation because of its flexibility and priority-base structure. The project is planned hierarchically in three levels—project, work package and activity. GP is applied separately at each level. Decision variables of each model are different planning parameters of the project. In this study, models are formulated from the owner's perspective and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

Hatékonyság növelése tervezéssel - avagy: aggregált tervezés alkalmazása egy magyar vállalatnál = Improving efficiency with production planning - Applying aggregate planning at a Hungarian company

A cikk alapvető kérdése, hogy miképpen használható a tervezés a termelési folyamatok, s ezzel a vállalati m}uködés egészének hatékonyságnövelése érdekében. A termeléstervezés szintjei és eszközei közül a középtávú aggregált tervezésre koncentrálunk. Ennek oka elsősorban az, hogy tapasztalatunk szerinte tervezési szint gyakorlati alkalmazása még nem tekinthető elterjedtnek, s ebből következően az eszköz alaposabb ismerete és alkalmazásának elterjedése jelentős tartalékokat tárhat fel a m}uködési hatékonyság növelése terén. A dolgozat a termeléstervezés klasszikusnak tekinthető modelljét alkalmazza egy hazai vállalat esetében. Az elemzés során vizsgáljuk a modell alkalmazhatóságát és a különböző tervezési alternatívák hatását a hatékonyság növelésére. A modell számítógépes megoldását a Microsoft Excel Solver programjával végeztük. _______ The article demonstrates how production planning, especially aggregate production planning can positively influence the competitiveness of production firms. First the structure of production planning, different, but interconnected levels of it are introduced than the aggregate planning is elaborated in more details. Reason for focusing on aggregate planning lies in the fact that according to our experience aggregate planning is an operation planning method applied least of all production planning methods in Hungary. Due to this we are convinced that demonstrating a real case study in this area can help managers to realize that adopting it can significantly influence e±ciency in operation and represent important source of development. We applied a classic aggregate planning model for a Hungarian producing company. We have tested the adaptability of the model and also the effect of different concrete planning scenarios on efficiency. Solution of the mathematical model is calculated using the program of Microsoft Excel Solver.

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.