Job uncertainty and personal control during downsizing: A comparison of survivors and victims

This study developed and tested a model of job uncertainty for survivors and victims of downsizing. Data were collected from three samples of employees in a public hospital, each representing three phases of the downsizing process: immediately before the announcement of the redeployment of staff, during the implementation of the downsizing, and towards the end of the official change programme. As predicted, levels of job uncertainty and personal control had a direct relationship with emotional exhaustion and job satisfaction. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that personal control mediated the relationship between job uncertainty and employee adjustment, a pattern of results that varied across each of the three phases of the change event. From the perspective of the organization’s overall climate, it was found that levels of job uncertainty, personal control and job satisfaction improved and/or stabilized over the downsizing process. During the implementation phase, survivors experienced higher levels of personal control than victims, but both groups of employees reported similar levels of job uncertainty. We discuss the implications of our results for strategically managing uncertainty during and after organizational change.

Phase equilibria in the system CaO-CoO-SiO2 and Gibbs energies of formation of the quaternary oxides CaCoSi2O6, Ca2CoSi2O7, and CaCoSiO4

Phase relations in the pseudoternary system CaO-CoO-SiO2 have been established at 1323 K. Three quaternary oxides were found to be stable: CaCoSi2O6 with clinopyroxene (Cpx), Ca2CoSi2O7 with melilite (Mel), and CaCoSiO4 with olivine (Ol) structures. The Gibbs energies of formation of the quaternary oxides from their component binary oxides were measured using solid-state galvanic cells incorporating yttria-stabilized zirconia as the solid electrolyte in the temperature range of 1000-1324 K. The results can be summarized as follows: CoO (rs) + CaO (rs) + 2SiO(2) (Qtz) --> CaCoSi2O6 (Cpx), Delta G(f)(0) = -117920 + 11.26T (+/-150) J/mol CoO (rs) + 2CaO (rs) + 2SiO(2) (Qtz) --> Ca2CoSi2O7 (Mel), Delta G(f)(0) = -192690 + 2.38T (+/-130) J/mol CoO (rs) + CaO (rs) + SiO2 (Qtz) --> CaCoSiO2 (Ol), Delta G(f)(0) = -100325 + 2.55T (+/-100) J/mol where rs = rock salt (NaCl) structure and Qtz = quartz. The uncertainty limits correspond to twice the standard error estimate. The experimentally observed miscibility gaps along the joins CaO-CoO and CaCoSiO4-Co2SiO4 were used to calculate the excess free energies of mixing for the solid solutions CaxCo1-xO and (CayCo1-y)CoSiO4:Delta G(E) = X(1 - X)[31975X + 26736 (1 - X)] J/mol and Delta G(E) = 23100 (+/-250) Y(1 - Y) J/mol. A T-X phase diagram for the binary CaO-CoO was computed from the thermodynamic information; the diagram agrees with information available in the literature. The computed miscibility gap along the CaCoSiO4-Co2SiO4 join is associated with a critical temperature of 1389 (+/-15) K. Stability fields for the various solid solutions and the quaternary compounds are depicted on chemical-potential diagrams for SiO2, CaO, and CoO at 1323 K.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Non-aqueous phase liquid behavior in the subsurface: Transportation, source zone characterization and remediation

Contaminant behaviour in soils and fractured rock is very complex, not least because of the heterogeneity of the subsurface environment. For non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs), a liquid density contrast and interfacial tension between the contaminant and interstitial fluid adds to the complexity of behaviour, increasing the difficulty of predicting NAPL behaviour in the subsurface. This paper outlines the need for physical model tests that can improve fundamental understanding of NAPL behaviour in the subsurface, enhance risk assessments of NAPL contaminated sites, reduce uncertainty associated with NAPL source remediation and improve current technologies for NAPL plume remediation. Four case histories are presented to illustrate physical modelling approaches that have addressed problems associated with NAPL transport, remediation and source zone characterization. © 2006 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Phase variations and phase shift in a TE011 mode microwave cavity used for in a miniature Rb fountain frequency standard

It is the first time in China that the phase variations and phase shift of microwave cavity in a miniature Rb fountain frequency standard are studied, considering the effect of imperfect metallic walls. Wall losses in the microwave cavity lead to small traveling wave components that deliver power from the cavity feed to the walls of cavity. The small traveling wave components produce a microradian distribution of phase throughout the cavity ity, and therefore distributed cavity phase shifts need to be considered. The microwave cavity is a TE011 circular cylinder copper cavity, with round cut-hole of end plates (14mm in diameter) for access for the atomic flux and two small apertures in the center of the side wall for coupling in microwave power. After attenuation alpha is calculated, field variations in cavity are solved. The field variations of the cavity are given. At the same time, the influences of loaded quality factor QL and diameter/height (2a/d) of the microwave cavity on the phase variations and phase shift are considered. According to the phase variation and phase shift of microwave cavity we select the parameters of cavity, diameter 2a = 69.2mm, height d = 34.6mm, QL = 5000, which will result in an uncertainty delta(Delta f / f0 ) < 4.7 x 10(-17) and meets the requirement for the miniature Rb fountain frequency standard with accuracy 10(-15).

Near optimal combination of sensory and motor uncertainty in time during a naturalistic perception-action task.

Most behavioral tasks have time constraints for successful completion, such as catching a ball in flight. Many of these tasks require trading off the time allocated to perception and action, especially when only one of the two is possible at any time. In general, the longer we perceive, the smaller the uncertainty in perceptual estimates. However, a longer perception phase leaves less time for action, which results in less precise movements. Here we examine subjects catching a virtual ball. Critically, as soon as subjects began to move, the ball became invisible. We study how subjects trade-off sensory and movement uncertainty by deciding when to initiate their actions. We formulate this task in a probabilistic framework and show that subjects' decisions when to start moving are statistically near optimal given their individual sensory and motor uncertainties. Moreover, we accurately predict individual subject's task performance. Thus we show that subjects in a natural task are quantitatively aware of how sensory and motor variability depend on time and act so as to minimize overall task variability.

Integrating design attributes, knowledge and uncertainty in aerospace sector

The delivery of integrated product and service solutions is growing in the aerospace industry, driven by the potential of increasing profits. Such solutions require a life cycle view at the design phase in order to support the delivery of the equipment. The influence of uncertainty associated with design for services is increasingly a challenge due to information and knowledge constraints. There is a lack of frameworks that aim to define and quantify relationship between information and knowledge with uncertainty. Driven by this gap, the paper presents a framework to illustrate the link between uncertainty and knowledge within the design context for services in the aerospace industry. The paper combines industrial interaction and literature review to initially define the design attributes, the associated knowledge requirements and the uncertainties experienced. The framework is then applied in three cases through development of causal loop models (CLMs), which are validated by industrial and academic experts. The concepts and inter-linkages are developed with the intention of developing a software prototype. Future recommendations are also included. © 2014 CIRP.

Tillin, H. & Tyler-Walters, H., 2014. Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 2 Report – Literature review and sensitivity assessments for ecological groups for circalittoral and offshore Level 5 biotopes. JNCC Report No. 512B, 260 pp.

Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.

Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over-allocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005–2007) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counter factual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we find that both over-allocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 280 million EUAs and total abatement of 247 Mt CO2. However, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 Mt CO2 also occurred, possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features.

A Psychosocial Approach to Understanding Causality Assessment in Early Phase Oncology Clinical Trials: A Phenomenological Study

Research Question: What are the psychosocial factors that affect causality assessment in early phase oncology clinical trials? Methods: Thirty-two qualitative interviews were explicated with the aid of “Naturalistic Decision Making”. Data explication consisted of phenomenological reduction, delineating and clustering meaning units, forming themes, and creating a composite summary. Participants were members of the National Cancer Institute of Canada’s Clinical Trial Group Investigative New Drug committee. Results: The process of assigning causality is extremely subjective and full of uncertainty. Physicians had no formal training, nor a tool to assist them with this process. Physicians were apprehensive about their decisions and felt pressure from their patients, as well as the pharmaceutical companies sponsoring the trial. Conclusions: There are many problem areas when attributing causality, all of which have serious consequences, but clinicians used a variety of methods to cope with these problem areas.

Signification de l’expérience de la phase palliative du cancer, pour des personnes atteintes et leurs familles des Baléares, alors que le pronostic leur est connu

Le cancer est considéré comme l’une des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité et, en Espagne, représente à lui seul 25% du taux de mortalité globale. Lorsqu’une personne et sa famille font l’expérience de traverser la phase avancée du cancer, celles-ci vivent un grand choc émotionnel où les souffrances physique, psychique et spirituelle peuvent être présentes. L’information donnée par les professionnels de la santé aux membres de la famille, incluant la personne atteinte, en ce qui concerne le diagnostic et le pronostic du cancer est maintenant plus fréquente dans le contexte méditerranéen. Il n'est pas clair, toutefois, comment cette nouvelle approche est vécue par les familles. C’est pourquoi, le but de cette recherche qualitative de type phénoménologique est d’explorer la signification de l’expérience de familles dont l’un des membres est atteint d’un cancer terminal, alors que tous connaissent le pronostic de la maladie. Les résultats obtenus reposent sur l’analyse en profondeur d’entrevues réalisées auprès de quatre couples. L’analyse des données, à l’aide de la méthode phénoménologique de Giorgi (1997), fait émerger deux thèmes centraux caractérisant la signification de cette expérience de la phase palliative de cancer, alors que l’information sur le mauvais pronostic est connue tant par la personne atteinte que sa famille. Le premier thème central est celui de vivre intensément la perte de la vie rêvée et comporte le vécu suite au choc du pronostic fatal, le fait de vivre constamment des sentiments et des émotions liés à différentes pertes telles que la tristesse, la frustration, l’inquiétude et l’incertitude, et l’espoir de ne pas souffrir. Le deuxième thème central qui ressort est le développement de stratégies par les couples participants afin de rendre leur vie plus supportable. Ces stratégies sont les suivantes : accueillir l’information et le soutien professionnel, retrouver une certaine normalité dans la vie quotidienne, profiter de la vie, recevoir l’aide de la famille et des amis, maintenir une communication cognitive et instrumentale ouverte, se protéger au niveau émotionnel et envisager l’avenir sans la personne aimée. Tous ces éléments, dans le contexte individuel de vie de chaque famille transforment chacun de ces vécus en une expérience unique qui doit être comprise et respectée comme telle par tous les professionnels de la santé impliqués. Les connaissances développées par cette recherche permettront aux infirmières de mieux comprendre l’expérience de la phase palliative du cancer pour des couples dont le diagnostic et le pronostic fatal sont connus par tous, ceci afin d’améliorer leur qualité des soins. Afin de poursuivre le développement du savoir infirmier, il est recommandé de poursuivre des études afin d’explorer plus en profondeur la communication au sein des couples.

Effets des recuits ultra-rapides (10^5 K/s) sur la formation des siliciures métalliques en phase solide

La synthèse de siliciures métalliques sous la forme de films ultra-minces demeure un enjeu majeur en technologie CMOS. Le contrôle du budget thermique, afin de limiter la diffusion des dopants, est essentiel. Des techniques de recuit ultra-rapide sont alors couramment utilisées. Dans ce contexte, la technique de nanocalorimétrie est employée afin d'étudier, in situ, la formation en phase solide des siliciures de Ni à des taux de chauffage aussi élevés que 10^5 K/s. Des films de Ni, compris entre 9.3 et 0.3 nm sont déposés sur des calorimètres avec un substrat de a-Si ou de Si(100). Des mesures de diffraction de rayons X, balayées en température à 3 K/s, permettent de comparer les séquences de phase obtenues à bas taux de chauffage sur des échantillons de contrôle et à ultra-haut taux de chauffage sur les calorimètres. En premier lieu, il est apparu que l'emploi de calorimètres de type c-NC, munis d'une couche de 340 nm de Si(100), présente un défi majeur : un signal endothermique anormal vient fausser la mesure à haute température. Des micro-défauts au sein de la membrane de SiNx créent des courts-circuits entre la bande chauffante de Pt du calorimètre et l'échantillon métallique. Ce phénomène diminue avec l'épaisseur de l'échantillon et n'a pas d'effet en dessous de 400 °C tant que les porteurs de charge intrinsèques au Si ne sont pas activés. Il est possible de corriger la mesure de taux de chaleur en fonction de la température avec une incertitude de 12 °C. En ce qui a trait à la formation des siliciures de Ni à ultra-haut taux de chauffage, l'étude montre que la séquence de phase est modifiée. Les phases riches en m étal, Ni2Si et théta, ne sont pas détectées sur Si(100) et la cinétique de formation favorise une amorphisation en phase solide en début de réaction. Les enthalpies de formation pour les couches de Ni inférieures à 10 nm sont globalement plus élevées que dans le cas volumique, jusqu' à 66 %. De plus, les mesures calorimétriques montrent clairement un signal endothermique à haute température, témoignant de la compétition que se livrent la réaction de phase et l'agglomération de la couche. Pour les échantillons recuits a 3 K/s sur Si(100), une épaisseur critique telle que décrite par Zhang et Luo, et proche de 4 nm de Ni, est supposée. Un modèle est proposé, basé sur la difficulté de diffusion des composants entre des grains de plus en plus petits, afin d'expliquer la stabilité accrue des couches de plus en plus fines. Cette stabilité est également observée par nanocalorimétrie à travers le signal endothermique. Ce dernier se décale vers les hautes températures quand l'épaisseur du film diminue. En outre, une 2e épaisseur critique, d'environ 1 nm de Ni, est remarquée. En dessous, une seule phase semble se former au-dessus de 400 °C, supposément du NiSi2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

The gas-phase ozonolysis of unsaturated volatile organic compounds in the troposphere

The gas-phase reactions of ozone with unsaturated hydrocarbons are significant sources of free radical species (including (OH)-O-center dot) and particulate material in the Earth's atmosphere. In this tutorial review, the kinetics, products and mechanisms of these reactions are examined, starting with a discussion of the original mechanism proposed by Criegee and following with a summary presentation of the complex, free radical-mediated reactions of carbonyl oxide (Criegee) intermediates. The contribution of ozone-terpene reactions to the atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol material is also discussed from the viewpoint of the formation of non-volatile organic acid products from the complex chemistry of ozone with alpha-pinene. Throughout the article, currently accepted understanding is supported through the presentation of key experimental results, and areas of persistent or new uncertainty are highlighted.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.