Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

Case-based reasoning in offshore well design

Petroleum well drilling is an expensive and risky operation. In this context, well design presents itself as a fundamental key to decrease costs and risks involved. Experience acquired by engineers is notably an important factor in good drilling design elaborations. Therefore, the loss of this knowledge may entail additional problems and costs. In this way, this work represents an initiative to model a petroleum well design case-based architecture. Tests with a prototype showed that the system built with this architecture may help in a well design and enable corporate knowledge preservation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

Sistemas de automação e supervisão do laboratório de avaliação dos processos de medição de vazão e BSW

During a petroleum well production process, It is common the slmultaneous oil and water production, in proportion that can vary from 0% up to values close to 100% of water. Moreover, the production flows can vary a lot, depending on the charaeteristies of eaeh reservoir. Thus being, the meters used in field for the flow and BSW (water in the oil) measurement must work well in wide bands of operation. For the evaluation of the operation of these meters, in the different operation conditions, a Laboratory will be built in UFRN, that has for objective to evaluate in an automatic way the processes of flow and BSW petroleum measurement, considering different operation conditions. The good acting of these meters is fundamental for the accuracy of the measures of the volumes of production liquid and rude of petroleum. For the measurement of this production, the petroleum companies use meters that should indicate the values with tha largast possible accuracy and to respect a series of conditions and minimum requirements, estabelished by the united Entrance ANP/INMETRO 19106/2000. The laboratory of Evafuation of the Processes of Measurement of Flow and BSW to be built will possess an oil tank basically, a tank of water, besides a mixer, a tank auditor, a tank for separation and a tank of residues for discard of fluids, fundamental for the evaluation of the flow metars and BSW. The whole process will be automated through the use of a Programmable Logicat Controller (CLP) and of a supervisory system.This laboratory besides allowing the evaluation of flow meters and BSW used by petroleum companies, it will make possible the development of researches related to the automation. Besides, it will be a collaborating element to the development of the Computer Engineering and Automation Department, that it will propitiate the evolution of the faculty and discente, qualifying them for a job market in continuous growth. The present work describes the project of automation of the laboratory that will be built at of UFRN. The system will be automated using a Programmable Logical Controller and a supervisory system. The programming of PLC and the screens of the supervisory system were developed in this work

Caracterização social e tecnológica da produção de uvas para mesa em pequenas propriedades rurais da região de Jales-SP

A viticultura é uma atividade relevante para os produtores rurais do Estado de São Paulo, sobretudo aqueles detentores de pequenas áreas. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo caracterizar os principais aspectos sociais e tecnológicos utilizados na produção de uvas para mesa na região de Jales (SP). Os dados foram levantados nos anos de 2009 e 2010, a partir da aplicação de questionários a 19 produtores de uva e do acompanhamento do ciclo de produção de 10 propriedades. Os produtores cultivam pelo menos três cultivares diferentes de uva, sendo as principais: 'Niagara Rosada', 'Itália' e 'Benitaka'. A área média das propriedades é de, aproximadamente, 21 ha, e a área média com parreiras de uva é de 2,4 ha. A maioria dos produtores não conta com assistência técnica regular, não segue recomendações de adubação e não emprega critérios técnicos para o manejo da irrigação. O controle de doenças é realizado de forma preventiva e intensa, chegando a superar 100 aplicações por ciclo, no caso das uvas finas para mesa. Os resultados devem subsidiar a realização de outras pesquisas, assim como programas de planejamento e transferência de tecnologia, proporcionando ao produtor um manejo mais adequado da cultura, bem como o desenvolvimento sustentável rural regional.

Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

An intelligent system to detect drilling problems through drilled cuttings return analysis

Cuttings return analysis is an important tool to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several measurements and tools have been developed for drilling problems detection, including mud logging, PWD and downhole torque information. Cuttings flow meters were developed in the past to provide information regarding cuttings return at the shale shakers. Their use, however, significantly impact the operation including rig space issues, interferences in geological analysis besides, additional personel required. This article proposes a non intrusive system to analyze the cuttings concentration at the shale shakers, which can indicate problems during drilling process, such as landslide, the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cuttings images are acquired by a high definition camera installed above the shakers and sent to a computer coupled with a data analysis system which aims the quantification and closure of a cuttings material balance in the well surface system domain. No additional people at the rigsite are required to operate the system. Modern Artificial intelligence techniques are used for pattern recognition and data analysis. Techniques include the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multilayer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC). Field test results conducted on offshore floating vessels are presented. Results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other data to improve the efficiency of drilling problems detection. Copyright 2010, IADC/SPE Drilling Conference and Exhibition.

A multi-agent architecture for intelligent data analysis

The present study introduces a multi-agent architecture designed for doing automation process of data integration and intelligent data analysis. Different from other approaches the multi-agent architecture was designed using a multi-agent based methodology. Tropos, an agent based methodology was used for design. Based on the proposed architecture, we describe a Web based application where the agents are responsible to analyse petroleum well drilling data to identify possible abnormalities occurrence. The intelligent data analysis methods used was the Neural Network.

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

The relationship between well-being, future planning and intentions to utilise intervention programmes: what can be learned from homeless service users?

There has been an increasing interest in the impact of individual well-being on the attitudes and actions of people receiving services designed to offer support. If well-being factors are important in the uptake and success of service programmes it is important that the nature of the relationships involved is understood by service designers and implementers. As a contribution to understanding, this paper examines the impact of well-being on the uptake of intervention programmes for homeless people. From the literature on well-being a number of factors are identified that contribute towards overall well-being, which include personal efficacy and identity, but also more directly well-being can be viewed as personal or group/collective esteem. The impact of these factors on service use is assessed by means of two studies of homelessness service users, comparing the implementation of two research tools: a shortened and a fuller one. The conclusions are that the factors identified are related to service use. The higher the collective esteem – esteem drawn from identification with services and their users and providers – and the less that they feel isolated, the more benefits that homeless people will perceive with service use, and in turn the more likely they are to be motivated to use services. However, the most important factors in explaining service use are a real sense that it is appropriate to accept social support from others, a rejection of the social identity as homeless but a cultivation of being valued as part of a non-homeless community, and a positive perception of the impact of the service.

Toward equality of well-being : strategies for improving minority health : strategic planning and coordination process.

S/N 037017-024-01504-1 (GPO).

Hierarchical approach to project planning:the case of a petroleum pipeline construction

Projects exposed to an uncertain environment must be adapted to deal with the effective integration of various planning elements and the optimization of project parameters. Time, cost, and quality are the prime objectives of a project that need to be optimized to fulfill the owner's goal. In an uncertain environment, there exist many other conflicting objectives that may also need to be optimized. These objectives are characterized by varying degrees of conflict. Moreover, an uncertain environment also causes several changes in the project plan throughout its life, demanding that the project plan be totally flexible. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision making technique, offers a good solution for this project planning problem. There the planning problem is considered from the owner's perspective, which leads to classifying the project up to the activity level. GP is applied separately at each level, and the formulated models are integrated through information flow. The flexibility and adaptability of the models lies in the ease of updating the model parameters at the required level through changing priorities and/or constraints and transmitting the information to other levels. The hierarchical model automatically provides integration among various element of planning. The proposed methodology is applied in this paper to plan a petroleum pipeline construction project, and its effectiveness is demonstrated.

Petroleum pipeline construction planning:a conceptual framework

A cross-country pipeline construction project is exposed to an uncertain environment due to its enormous size (physical, manpower requirement and financial value), complexity in design technology and involvement of external factors. These uncertainties can lead to several changes in project scope during the process of project execution. Unless the changes are properly controlled, the time, cost and quality goals of the project may never be achieved. A methodology is proposed for project control through risk analysis, contingency allocation and hierarchical planning models. Risk analysis is carried out through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) due to the subjective nature of risks in construction projects. The results of risk analysis are used to determine the logical contingency for project control with the application of probability theory. Ultimate project control is carried out by hierarchical planning model which enables decision makers to take vital decisions during the changing environment of the construction period. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision-making technique, is proposed for model formulation because of its flexibility and priority-base structure. The project is planned hierarchically in three levels—project, work package and activity. GP is applied separately at each level. Decision variables of each model are different planning parameters of the project. In this study, models are formulated from the owner's perspective and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.