Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates

Atmospheric CO2 concentration has varied from minima of 170-200 ppm in glacials to maxima of 280-300 ppm in the recent interglacials. Photosynthesis by C-3 plants is highly sensitive to CO2 concentration variations in this range. Physiological consequences of the CO2 changes should therefore be discernible in palaeodata. Several lines of evidence support this expectation. Reduced terrestrial carbon storage during glacials, indicated by the shift in stable isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean, cannot be explained by climate or sea-level changes. It is however consistent with predictions of current process-based models that propagate known physiological CO2 effects into net primary production at the ecosystem scale. Restricted forest cover during glacial periods, indicated by pollen assemblages dominated by non-arboreal taxa, cannot be reproduced accurately by palaeoclimate models unless CO2 effects on C-3-C-4 plant competition are also modelled. It follows that methods to reconstruct climate from palaeodata should account for CO2 concentration changes. When they do so, they yield results more consistent with palaeoclimate models. In conclusion, the palaeorecord of the Late Quaternary, interpreted with the help of climate and ecosystem models, provides evidence that CO2 effects at the ecosystem scale are neither trivial nor transient.

The destinies of literary manuscripts: past present and future

This essay reviews the ways in which literary manuscripts may be considered to be archivally unique, as well as valuable in all senses of the word, and gives a cautious appraisal of their future in the next ten to twenty years. It reviews the essential nature of literary manuscripts, and especially the ways in which they form “split collections”. This leads to an assessment of the work of the Diasporic Literary Archives network from 2012 to 2014, and some of the key findings. The essay closes with reflections on the future of literary manuscripts in the digital age – emerging trends, research findings, uncertainties and unknowns.

Terrorists Among Us: Effects of a Suspect's Group Membership, Terrorist Past, and Knowledge on Lay Persons' Interrogation Severity Recommendations

Support among US citizens for severe interrogation has been recognized as drawing upon utilitarian as well as on retributive motivation (Carlsmith & Sood, 2009). Two studies were conducted to expand on these findings in a Swiss sample. In Study 1, participants rated the severity of different interrogation techniques, which were scaled to provide an alternative measure of interrogation severity. In Study 2, retributive motivation was manipulated by varying the terrorist past of a male suspect, and utilitarian motivation was manipulated by varying the probability that the suspect could provide valuable information. Additionally, we manipulated the suspect’s group membership. The results of the vignette study suggest that the number and severity of recommended interrogation techniques is mainly influenced by whether the suspect might provide valuable information. Whether the suspect had a terrorist past was an additional influence that, however, was primarily attributable to the suspect’s group membership: If the suspect belonged to the ingroup, participants’ harsher interrogation recommendations were affected by that person’s past, whereas recommendations were not significantly influenced by a terrorist past if the suspect was an outgroup member.

Sedimentary evolution and environmental history of Lake Van (Turkey) over the past 600,000 years

The lithostratigraphic framework of Lake Van, eastern Turkey, has been systematically analysed to document the sedimentary evolution and the environmental history of the lake during the past ca 600,000 years. The lithostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy of a 219 m long drill core from Lake Van serves to separate global climate oscillations from local factors caused by tectonic and volcanic activity. An age model was established based on the climatostratigraphic alignment of chemical and lithological signatures, validated by 40Ar/39Ar ages. The drilled sequence consists of ca 76% lacustrine carbonaceous clayey silt, ca 2% fluvial deposits, ca 17% volcaniclastic deposits and 5% gaps. Six lacustrine lithotypes were separated from the fluvial and event deposits, such as volcaniclastics (ca 300 layers) and graded beds (ca 375 layers), and their depositional environments are documented. These lithotypes are: (i) graded beds frequently intercalated with varved clayey silts reflect rising lake-levels during the terminations; (ii) varved clayey silts reflect strong seasonality and an intralake oxic–anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level highstands during interglacials/interstadials; (iii) CaCO3-rich banded sediments are representative of a lowering of the oxic-anoxic boundary, for example, lake-level decreases during glacial inceptions; (iv) CaCO3-poor banded and mottled clayey silts reflect an oxic–anoxic boundary close to the sediment-water interface, for example, lake-level low-stands during glacials/stadials; (v) diatomaceous muds were deposited during the early beginning of the lake as a fresh water system; and (vi) fluvial sands and gravels indicate the initial flooding of the lake basin. The recurrence of lithologies (i) to (iv) follows the past five glacial/interglacial cycles. A 20 m thick disturbed unit reflects an interval of major tectonic activity in Lake Van at ca 414 ka BP.

Globalized Antiquity: Uses and Perceptions of the Past in South Asia, Mesoamerica, and Europe

„Antike“ ist keine europäische Exklusivität: Das Buch zeigt, wie in Südasien, Mesoamerika und Europa je eigene Antiken konstruiert werden. In den untersuchten vorkolonialen, kolonialen und postkolonialen Zusammenhängen wird die Antike durch die zeitgenössische Geschichtspolitik stark mitbestimmt. Der Vergleich lässt die Verflechtung der Vorstellungen über die Vergangenheit zwischen „klassischer“ europäischer, indischer und mesoamerikanischer Antike von der frühen Neuzeit bis in die Gegenwart erkennen. Das Buch bietet Denkanstöße für Personen, die sich mit historisch interessierter Kulturanthropologie, kritischer Altertumswissenschaft und Globalgeschichte beschäftigen.

An Unscathed Past in the Face of Death: Mortality Salience Reduces Individuals’ Regrets

Folk wisdom and popular literature hold that, in the face of death, individuals tend to regret things in their lives that they have done or failed to do. Terror Management Theory (TMT), in contrast, allows for the prediction that individuals who are confronted with death try to minimize the experience of regret in order to retain a positive self-esteem. Three experiments put these competing perspectives to test. Drawing on TMT, we hypothesized and found that participants primed with their own death regret fewer things than control-group participants. This pattern of results cannot be attributed to differing types of regrets (Study 1). Furthermore, we provide evidence suggesting that the effect is not purely a product of cognitive mechanisms such as differing levels of construal (Study 2), cognitive contrast, or deficits (Study 3). Rather, the reported results are best explained in terms of a motivational coping mechanism: When death is salient, individuals strive to bolster as well as protect their self-esteem and accordingly try to minimize the experience of regret. The results add to our conceptual understanding of regret and TMT, and suggest that a multitude of lifestyle guidebooks need updating.

Holocene DBD and Ti/LOI timeseries from Lake Hajeren on Svalbard, indicators of past glacier activity

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Holocene proxy time-series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. However, available datasets are scarce, unevenly distributed and often of coarse resolution. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of climate shifts and variations in rock-flour production transfer this signal to the lacustrine sediment archives of downstream lakes. Here, we present the first full Holocene record of continuous glacier variability on Svalbard from glacier-fed Lake Hajeren. This reconstruction is based on an undisturbed lake sediment core that covers the entire Holocene and resolves variability on centennial scales owing to 26 dating points. A toolbox of physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies in combination with multivariate statistics has allowed us to fingerprint glacier activity in addition to other processes affecting the sediment record. Evidence from variations in sediment density, validated by changes in Ti concentrations, reveal glaciers remained present in the catchment following deglaciation prior to 11,300 cal BP, culminating in a Holocene maximum between 9.6 and 9.5 ka cal BP. Correspondence with freshwater pulses from Hudson Strait suggests that Early Holocene glacier advances were driven by the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). We find that glaciers disappeared from the catchment between 7.4 and 6.7 ka cal BP, following a late Hypsithermal. Glacier reformation around 4250 cal BP marks the onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. Between 3380 and 3230 cal BP, we find evidence for a previously unreported centennial-scale glacier advance. Both events are concurrent with well-documented episodes of North Atlantic cooling. We argue that this brief forcing created suitable conditions for glaciers to reform in the catchment against a background of gradual orbital cooling. These findings highlight the climate-sensitivity of the small glaciers studied, which rapidly responded to climate shifts. The start of prolonged Neoglacial glacier activity commenced during the Little Ice Age (LIA) around 700 cal BP, in agreement with reported advances from other glaciers on Svalbard. In conclusion, this study proposes a three-stage Holocene climate history of Svalbard, successively driven by LIS meltwater pulses, episodic Atlantic cooling and declining summer insolation.

Towards ‘EuroNest 2.0’: What should the next European Parliament learn from its predecessor? CEPS Policy Brief No. 300, 1 October 2013

The development and functioning of the EU-Eastern Partnership Parliamentary Assembly (EuroNest PA) is the focus of this Policy Brief, in which the authors argue that despite organising a number of meetings and adopting several resolutions in the past two years, the Assembly is failing to reach its objectives of promoting economic and political integration between the EU and the Eastern Partners. Three main problems are considered in this paper: i) the criticism of the European Parliament for being inconsistent about the conditions under which countries can send delegates ii) the fact that the parliamentary meetings are too short and infrequent, and iii) the observation that the Eastern Partners focus too much on national and bilateral issues, thus failing to engage in multilateral dialogue. A number of recommendations are put forward to enhance the effectiveness of the Assembly.

Uppermost Limit, Extent, and Fluctuations of the Timberline and Treeline Ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps during the past 11,500 Years

Pollen and macrofossils were analyzed at two sites above today's treeline (or tree limit) in the Swiss Central Alps (Gouillé Loéré, 2503 m a.s.l., and Lengi Egga, 2557 m a.s.l.) to test two contrasting hypotheses about the natural formation of timberline (the upper limit of closed forest) in the Alps. Our results revealed that Pinus cembra--Larix decidua forests near timberline were rather closed between 9000 and 2500 B.C. (9600-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP), when timberline fluctuations occurred within a belt 100-150 m above today's tree limit. The treeline ecocline above timberline was characterized by the mixed occurrence of tree, shrub, dwarf-shrub, and herbaceous species, but it did not encompass more than 100-150 altitudinal meters. The uppermost limit reached by timberline and treeline during the Holocene was ca. 2420 and 2530 m, respectively, i.e., about 120 to 180 m higher than today. Between 3500 and 2500 B.C. (4700-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP) timberline progressively sank by about 300 m, while treeline was lowered only ca. 100 m. This change led to an enlargement of the treeline-ecocline belt (by ca. 300 m) after 2500 B.C. (4000 ¹⁴C yr BP). Above the treeline ecocline, natural meadows dominated by dwarf shrubs (e.g., Salix herbacea) and herbaceous species (e.g., Helianthemum, Taraxacum, Potentialla, Leontodon t., Cerastium alpinum t., Cirsium spinosissimum, Silene exscapa t., and Saxifraga stellaris) have been present since at least 11,000 cal yr ago. In these meadows tree and tall shrub species (>0.5 m) never played a major role. These results support the conventional hypothesis of a narrow ecocline with rather sharp upper timberline and treeline boundaries and imply that today's treeless alpine communities in the Alps are close to a natural stage. Pollen (percentages and influx), stomata, and charcoal data may be useful for determining whether or not a site was treeless. Nevertheless, a reliable and detailed record of past local vegetation near and above timberline is best achieved through the inclusion of macrofossil analysis.

Ressignificação existencial do pretérito e longevidade humana

Existem, atualmente, mais de 300 hipóteses relativas à caracterização, função e mecanismos do envelhecimento, possivelmente devido ao aumento de idosos no mundo. Embora se avente uma função social à velhice humana, as transformações da sociedade impuseram uma cultura de descarte, incluindo pessoas como os idosos. Tal exclusão, que se associa à tristeza, depressão e morte desse grupo, é contraditória ao aumento do tempo de vida dos idosos constatado atualmente. O presente trabalho tentou determinar os aspectos ambientais envolvidos na longevidade usando uma técnica de metodologia qualitativa denominada grounded theory (ou teoria fundamentada nos dados) em dados fornecidos por ex-ferroviários longevos. Constatou-se que as representações dos ex-ferroviários confluem para a categoria central: desolação pelo aniquilamento da vida e do ambiente, no presente, devido à continuada negligência do Estado e da Sociedade na promoção e preservação das coisas boas para a vida que havia no passado. Observou-se ainda que, paralelamente à hipervalorização genérica das coisas do passado, há constatação recente de que suas existências fizeram parte da epopeia que promoveu o desenvolvimento econômico e social do interior paulista e possibilitou uma ressignificação existencial do passado, sugerindo ser um potente mecanismo de defesa que culmina em longevidade. Tal achado se insere na hipótese de que a função da longevidade seria a de preservar um contingente social com conhecimentos de um modo de vida que deu certo por ser socialmente vantajoso