Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

International Grassland Congress Outlook: An historical review and future expectations

Features of the history of the International Grassland Congress are mentioned. Aspects of a number of failed themes in grassland science are described with respect to molecular biology, intensive systems of ruminant production, carbohydrate use in plant growth, plant succession and range condition, and stocking method. Future expectations are focused on meeting a balance of objectives, maintaining reductionist science, taking new initiatives in plant improvement and in the development of animal production systems, and reducing barriers to international trade. The adoption of grassland science depends upon the growth of new learning, especially through cyclical interaction between scientists and farmers.

Expectations of the effects of drinking on couple relationship functioning: An assessment of women in distressed relationships who consume alcohol at harmful levels

Based on a cognitive-social learning model of alcohol use, it was hypothesised that women with both alcohol and relationship problems would endorse more positive expectations of the effects of alcohol consumption on their relationship and would report lower relational efficacy than women without relationship or alcohol problems. Measures of relationship-referent alcohol expectancies and relational efficacy were completed by 174 married women with both alcohol and relationship problems (n = 20), alcohol problems alone (it = 26), relationship problems alone (n = 30), or neither problem (n = 98). Women without either alcohol or relationship problems strongly rejected expectations of enhanced relationship functioning (e.g., enhanced intimacy, increased emotional expression) following alcohol consumption, whereas women with both alcohol and relationship problems were ambivalent about these positive expectations. Women with both problems also reported lower relational efficacy than the other groups of women. Negative expectations about the effect of alcohol consumption on relationships in women with low relational efficacy may inhibit harmful drinking. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

International Expectations: ICW - Prelúdio para o CNM

Neste artigo são abordadas as primeiras diligências internacionais para se formar o CNMP, Conselho Nacional das Mulheres Portuguesas. Procurámos identificar as figuras que estiveram envolvidas nesses contactos iniciais, delineando o relacionamento com a Rainha Sr.ª D. Amélia por parte de quem esteve envolvido. Tempo será ainda de apurar as razões do insucesso. Este estudo assinala uma antecipação em cerca de 10 anos no historial do CNMP, relevante pelas pessoas envolvidas, pelas relações com o feminismo internacional, com particular impacto pois sinaliza o sentido em que o mesmo ocorreu. A iniciativa partiu do ICW «International Council of Women» para Portugal, como acontecera antes estando na génese de outros Conselhos congé

The development and implementation of math projects in a HEI: expectations, objectives, experiences and analysis

An overwhelming problem in Math Curriculums in Higher Education Institutions (HEI), we are daily facing in the last decade, is the substantial differences in Math background of our students. When you try to transmit, engage and teach subjects/contents that your “audience” is unable to respond to and/or even understand what we are trying to convey, it is somehow frustrating. In this sense, the Math projects and other didactic strategies, developed through Learning Management System Moodle, which include an array of activities that combine higher order thinking skills with math subjects and technology, for students of HE, appear as remedial but important, proactive and innovative measures in order to face and try to overcome these considerable problems. In this paper we will present some of these strategies, developed in some organic units of the Polytechnic Institute of Porto (IPP). But, how “fruitful” are the endless number of hours teachers spent in developing and implementing these platforms? Do students react to them as we would expect? Do they embrace this opportunity to overcome their difficulties? How do they use/interact individually with LMS platforms? Can this environment that provides the teacher with many interesting tools to improve the teaching – learning process, encourages students to reinforce their abilities and knowledge? In what way do they use each available material – videos, interactive tasks, texts, among others? What is the best way to assess student’s performance in these online learning environments? Learning Analytics tools provides us a huge amount of data, but how can we extract “good” and helpful information from them? These and many other questions still remain unanswered but we look forward to get some help in, at least, “get some drafts” for them because we feel that this “learning analysis”, that tackles the path from the objectives to the actual results, is perhaps the only way we have to move forward in the “best” learning and teaching direction.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Cataract surgery: expectations of patients assisted during a community project in São Paulo, state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify social characteristics and expectations of individuals seen during a community project for the treatment of senile cataracts. Expected results from their eye surgery and its consequences to their quality of life were studied as well. METHODOLOGY: Cataract patients (visual acuity equal to or lower than 0.2 in the more superior eye) aged 50 years or over, were surveyed by means of interviews held during their visit at the Cataract Project in São Paulo city, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1999. RESULTS: The sample was composed of 331 subjects of low socioeconomic level ranging in age from 50 to 97 years (average = 71.8 years). Expectation of total recovery from the cataract condition by means of surgery was declared by 80.0% of the respondents, with no significant differences between male and female subjects (P < 0.1723). Hope to resume manual activities was expressed by 59.8%. CONCLUSION: A predominance of expectations of resuming normal activity and achieving a better quality of life after cataract surgery were identified.

User expectations for media sharing practices in open display networks

Open Display Networks have the potential to allow many content creators to publish their media to an open-ended set of screen displays. However, this raises the issue of how to match that content to the right displays. In this study, we aim to understand how the perceived utility of particular media sharing scenarios is affected by three independent variables, more specifically: (a) the locativeness of the content being shared; (b) how personal that content is and (c) the scope in which it is being shared. To assess these effects, we composed a set of 24 media sharing scenarios embedded with different treatments of our three independent variables. We then asked 100 participants to express their perception of the relevance of those scenarios. The results suggest a clear preference for scenarios where content is both local and directly related to the person that is publishing it. This is in stark contrast to the types of content that are commonly found in public displays, and confirms the opportunity that open displays networks may represent a new media for self-expression. This novel understanding may inform the design of new publication paradigms that will enable people to share media across the display networks.

Subjective income expectations, canonical models and income risk

Expectations are central to behaviour. Despite the existence of subjective expectations data, the standard approach is to ignore these, to hypothecate a model of behaviour and to infer expectations from realisations. In the context of income models, we reveal the informational gain obtained from using both a canonical model and subjective expectations data. We propose a test for this informational gain, and illustrate our approach with an application to the problem of measuring income risk.

Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirical results to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country do we find anchored or unmoored inflation expectations. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, our ndings are not consistent with the specifi =c model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a more broad view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.

Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.