995 resultados para pandemic risk
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Background HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. Methodology/Principal Findings We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG) against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9–6.5), and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5–21.7) (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1–19.3), respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked meat, as well as cat ownership, had no significant influence on the risk for seropositivity. Conclusions We present a first seroprevalence analysis for human T. gondii infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. Based on these data we estimate that 173 (95% CI 136–216) Kyrgyz children will be born annually to mothers who seroconverted to toxoplasmosis during pregnancy. In addition, between 350 and 1,000 HIV-infected persons are currently estimated to be seropositive for toxoplasmosis. Taken together, this suggests a substantial impact of congenital and AIDS-related symptomatic toxoplasmosis on morbidity and mortality in Kyrgyzstan.
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INTRODUCTION Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection, although relatively common, remains controversial. METHODS Prospective, observational, multicenter study from 23 June 2009 through 11 February 2010, reported in the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) H1N1 registry. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with completed outcome data were analyzed. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 155 (70.5%). Sixty-seven (30.5%) of the patients died in ICU and 75 (34.1%) whilst in hospital. One hundred twenty-six (57.3%) patients received corticosteroid therapy on admission to ICU. Patients who received corticosteroids were significantly older and were more likely to have coexisting asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic steroid use. These patients receiving corticosteroids had increased likelihood of developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) [26.2% versus 13.8%, p < 0.05; odds ratio (OR) 2.2, confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5]. Patients who received corticosteroids had significantly higher ICU mortality than patients who did not (46.0% versus 18.1%, p < 0.01; OR 3.8, CI 2.1-7.2). Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors identified that early use of corticosteroids was not significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.4] but was still associated with an increased rate of HAP (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-4.8, p < 0.05). When only patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were analyzed, similar results were observed. CONCLUSIONS Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection did not result in better outcomes and was associated with increased risk of superinfections.
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This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^
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This cross-sectional study is based on the qualitative and quantitative research design to review health policy decisions, their practice and implications during 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States and globally. The “Future Pandemic Influenza Control (FPIC) related Strategic Management Plan” was developed based on the incorporation of the “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (2005)” for the United States from the U.S. Homeland Security Council and “The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector (2006)” from the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Committee for use by the public health agencies in the United States as well as globally. The “global influenza experts’ survey” was primarily designed and administered via email through the “Survey Monkey” system to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic experts as the study respondents. The effectiveness of this plan was confirmed and the approach of the study questionnaire was validated to be convenient and the excellent quality of the questions provided an efficient opportunity to the study respondents to evaluate the effectiveness of predefined strategies/interventions for future pandemic influenza control.^ The quantitative analysis of the responses to the Likert-scale based questions in the survey about predefined strategies/interventions, addressing five strategic issues to control future pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of strategies defined as pertinent interventions in this plan was evaluated by targeting five strategic issues regarding pandemic influenza control. For the first strategic issue pertaining influenza prevention and pre pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for strategy (1a) 87.5%, strategy (1b) 91.7% and strategy (1c) 83.3%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (1); (1b (High Priority) > 1a (Medium Priority) > 1c (Low Priority) based on the available resources of the developing and developed countries. For the second Strategic Issue encompassing the preparedness and communication regarding pandemic influenza control; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (2a) 95.6%, strategy (2b) 82.6%, strategy (2c) 91.3% and Strategy (2d) 87.0%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (2); (2a (highest priority) > 2c (high priority) >2d (medium priority) > 2b (low priority). For the third strategic issue encompassing the surveillance and detection of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (3a) 90.9% and strategy (3b) 77.3%. The assessment of the priority level for theses strategies to address the strategic Issue No. (3) (3a (high priority) > 3b (medium/low priority). For the fourth strategic issue pertaining the response and containment of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (4a) 63.6%, strategy (4b) 81.8%, strategy (4c) 86.3%, and strategy (4d) 86.4%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (4); (4d (highest priority) > 4c (high priority) > 4b (medium priority) > 4a (low priority). The fifth strategic issue about recovery from influenza and post pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (5a) 68.2%, strategy (5b) 36.3% and strategy (5c) 40.9%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (5); (5a (high priority) > 5c (medium priority) > 5b (low priority).^ The qualitative analysis of responses to the open-ended questions in the study questionnaire was performed by means of thematic content analysis. The following recurrent or common “themes” were determined for the future implementation of various predefined strategies to address five strategic issues from the “FPIC related Strategic Management Plan” to control future influenza pandemics. (1) Pre Pandemic Influenza Prevention, (2) Seasonal Influenza Control, (3) Cost Effectiveness of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI), (4) Raising Global Public Awareness, (5) Global Influenza Vaccination Campaigns, (6)Priority for High Risk Population, (7) Prompt Accessibility and Distribution of Influenza Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs, (8) The Vital Role of Private Sector, (9) School Based Influenza Containment, (10) Efficient Global Risk Communication, (11) Global Research Collaboration, (12) The Critical Role of Global Public Health Organizations, (13) Global Syndromic Surveillance and Surge Capacity and (14) Post Pandemic Recovery and Lessons Learned. The future implementation of these strategies with confirmed effectiveness to primarily “reduce the overall response time’ in the process of ‘early detection’, ‘strategies (interventions) formulation’ and their ‘implementation’ to eventually ensure the following health outcomes: (a) reduced influenza transmission, (b) prompt and effective influenza treatment and control, (c) reduced influenza related morbidity and mortality.^
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Background: Nigeria was one of the 13 countries where avian influenza outbreak in poultry farms was reported during the 2006 avian influenza pandemic threat and was also the first country in Africa to report the presence of H5N1influenza among its poultry population. There are multiple hypotheses on how the avian influenza outbreak of 2006 was introduced to Nigeria, but the consensus is that once introduced, poultry farms and their workers were responsible for 70% of the spread of avian influenza virus to other poultry farms and the population. ^ The spread of avian influenza has been attributed to lack of compliance by poultry farms and their workers with poultry farm biosecurity measures. When poultry farms fail to adhere to biosecurity measures and there is an outbreak of infectious diseases like in 2006, epidemiological investigations usually assess poultry farm biosecurity—often with the aid of a questionnaire. Despite the importance of questionnaires in determining farm compliance with biosecurity measures, there have been few efforts to determine the validity of questionnaires designed to assess poultry farms risk factors. Hence, this study developed and validated a tool (questionnaire) that can be used for poultry farm risk stratification in Imo State, Nigeria. ^ Methods: Risk domains were generated using literature and recommendations from agricultural organizations and the Nigeria government for poultry farms. The risk domains were then used to develop a questionnaire. Both the risk domain and questionnaire were verified and modified by a group of five experts with a research interest in Nigeria's poultry industry and/or avian influenza prevention. Once a consensus was reached by the experts, the questionnaire was distributed to 30 selected poultry farms in Imo State, Nigeria that participated in this study. Survey responses were received for all the 30 poultry farms that were selected. The same poultry farms were visited one week after they completed the questionnaires for on-site observation. Agreement among survey and observation results were analyzed using a kappa test and rated as poor, fair, moderate, substantial, or nearly perfect; and internal consistency of the survey was also computed. ^ Result: Out of the 43 items on the questionnaire, 32 items were validated by this study. The agreement between the survey result and onsite observation was analyzed using kappa test and ranged from poor to nearly perfect. Most poultry farms had their best agreements in the contact section of the survey. The least agreement was noted in the farm management section of the survey. Thirty-two questions on the survey had a coefficient alpha > 0.70, which is a robust internal consistency for the survey. ^ Conclusion: This study developed 14 risk domains for poultry farms in Nigeria and validated 32 items from the original questionnaire that contained 43 items. The validated items can be used to determine the risk of introduction and spread of avian influenza virus in poultry farms in Imo State, Nigeria. After further validations in other states, regions and poultry farm sectors in Nigeria; this risk assessment tool can then be used to determine the risk profile of poultry farms across Nigeria.^
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Expression of CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), the major coreceptor for HIV-1 cell entry, and its ligands (e.g., RANTES and MIP-1α) is widely regarded as central to the pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection. By surveying nearly 3,000 HIV+ and HIV− individuals from worldwide populations for polymorphisms in the genes encoding RANTES, MIP-1α, and CCR5, we show that the evolutionary histories of human populations have had a significant impact on the distribution of variation in these genes, and that this may be responsible, in part, for the heterogeneous nature of the epidemiology of the HIV-1 pandemic. The varied distribution of RANTES haplotypes (AC, GC, and AG) associated with population-specific HIV-1 transmission- and disease-modifying effects is a striking example. Homozygosity for the AC haplotype was associated with an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 as well as accelerated disease progression in European Americans, but not in African Americans. Yet, the prevalence of the ancestral AC haplotype is high in individuals of African origin, but substantially lower in non-Africans. In a Japanese cohort, AG-containing RANTES haplotype pairs were associated with a delay in disease progression; however, we now show that their contribution to HIV-1 pathogenesis and epidemiology in other parts of the world is negligible because the AG haplotype is infrequent in non-Far East Asians. Thus, the varied distribution of RANTES, MIP-1α, and CCR5 haplotype pairs and their population-specific phenotypic effects on HIV-1 susceptibility and disease progression results in a complex pattern of biological determinants of HIV-1 epidemiology. These findings have important implications for the design, assessment, and implementation of effective HIV-1 intervention and prevention strategies.
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Recent studies suggest an association between the Interferon Inducible Transmembrane 3 (IFITM3) rs12252 variant and the course of influenza infection. However, it is not clear whether the reported association relates to influenza infection severity. The aim of this study was to estimate the hospitalization risk associated with this variant in Influenza Like Illness (ILI) patients during the H1N1 pandemic influenza. A case-control genetic association study was performed, using nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs collected during the H1N1 pandemic influenza. Laboratory diagnosis of influenza infection was performed by RT-PCR, the IFITM3 rs12252 was genotyped by RFLP and tested for association with hospitalization. Conditional logistic regression was performed to calculate the confounder-adjusted odds ratio of hospitalization associated with IFITM3 rs12252. We selected 312 ILI cases and 624 matched non-hospitalized controls. Within ILI Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positive patients, no statistical significant association was found between the variant and the hospitalization risk (Adjusted OR: 0.73 (95%CI: 0.33–1.50)). Regarding ILI Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 negative patients, CT/CC genotype carriers had a higher risk of being hospitalized than patients with TT genotype (Adjusted OR: 2.54 (95%CI: 1.54–4.19)). The IFITM3 rs12252 variant was associated with respiratory infection hospitalization but not specifically in patients infected with Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.
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Background There is evidence that certain mutations in the double-strand break repair pathway ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene act in a dominant-negative manner to increase the risk of breast cancer. There are also some reports to suggest that the amino acid substitution variants T2119C Ser707Pro and C3161G Pro1054Arg may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigate the breast cancer risk associated with these two nonconservative amino acid substitution variants using a large Australian population-based case–control study. Methods The polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 1300 cases and 600 controls using 5' exonuclease assays. Case–control analyses and genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression. Results The 2119C variant was rare, occurring at frequencies of 1.4 and 1.3% in cases and controls, respectively (P = 0.8). There was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.8), and the TC genotype was not associated with increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 0.59–1.97, P = 0.8). Similarly, the 3161G variant was no more common in cases than in controls (2.9% versus 2.2%, P = 0.2), there was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.1), and the CG genotype was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–1.98, P = 0.2). This lack of evidence for an association persisted within groups defined by the family history of breast cancer or by age. Conclusion The 2119C and 3161G amino acid substitution variants are not associated with moderate or high risks of breast cancer in Australian women.