Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Special Tax on Real Estate belonging to Non-resident Corporations in Spain

Análisis del impuesto español sobre bienes inmuebles de no residentes.

On the Capital Structure of Real Estate Firms

The leverage and debt maturity choices of real estate companies are interdependent, and are not made separately as is often assumed in the literature. We use three-stage least squares (3SLS) regression analysis to explore this interdependence for a sample of listed U.S. real estate companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) traded between 1973 and 2006.We find substantial differences in the nature of the relationship between leverage and maturity for the two firm types. Leverage is a determinant of maturity for non-REITs, whereas maturity is a determinant of leverage for REITs. We also find that the drivers of capital structure choices in real estate companies and REITs clearly reflect the effects of the REIT regulation.

Pricing inefficiencies in private real estate markets using total return swaps

Efficient markets should guarantee the existence of zero spreads for total return swaps. However, real estate markets have recorded values that are significantly different from zero in both directions. Possible explanations might suggest non-rational behaviour by inexperienced market players or unusual features of the underlying asset market. We find that institutional characteristics in the underlying market lead to market inefficiencies and, hence, to the creation of a rational trading window with upper and lower bounds within which transactions do not offer arbitrage opportunities. Given the existence of this rational trading window, we also argue that the observed spreads can substantially be explained by trading imbalances due to the limited liquidity of a newly formed market and/or to the effect of market sentiment, complementing explanations based on the lag between underlying market returns and index returns.

Real estate capital flows and transitional economies

reign real estate capital was a major source of financing domestic property market office construction in Central Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. During the 1990s, over 800 office buildings were either newly constructed or refurbished in Budapest, Prague and Warsaw. The primary focus of this analysis is explaining the spatial construction and redevelopment patterns of the post-1989 office buildings in these cities. Secondarily, we analyze the correlation of foreign direct investment flows to annual construction of office buildings. We seek to explain the location of new or refurbished office buildings in the central business district (CBD) or in non-CBD locations in terms of the effect of time, size of property and other variables, and test whether there is a positive correlation relationship of foreign direct investment flows and new office construction or refurbishment. Integrating relevant foreign direct investment (FDI), economic geography and property theories in the research, the authors attempt to bridge existing gaps in the literature.

An evaluation of the performance of UK real estate forecasters

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Monetary integration and real estate markets: an investigation of the impact of the introduction of a single currency on real estate performance

This paper assesses the impact of the monetary integration on different types of stock returns in Europe. In order to isolate European factors, the impact of global equity integration and small cap factors are investigated. European countries are sub-divided according to the process of monetary convergence. Analysis shows that national equity indices are strongly influenced by global market movements, with a European stock factor providing additional explanatory power. The global and European factors explain small cap and real estate stocks much less well –suggesting an increased importance of ‘local’ drivers. For real estate, there are notable differences between core and non-core countries. Core European countries exhibit convergence – a convergence to a European rather than a global factor. The non-core countries do not seem to exhibit common trends or movements. For the non-core countries, monetary integration has been associated with increased dispersion of returns, lower correlation and lower explanatory power of a European factor. It is concluded that this may be explained by divergence in underlying macro-economic drivers between core and non-core countries in the post-Euro period.

The impact of minimum services laws on real estate brokerage competitive intensity

As many as fourteen US states have now mandated minimum service requirements for real estate brokerage relationships in residential transactions. This study attempts to determine whether these minimum service laws have any impact on brokerage competition. Federal government agencies allege such laws discourage competition because they limit the offering of nontraditional brokerage services. However, alternatively, a legislative “bright line” definition of the lowest level of acceptable service may reduce any perceived risk in offering non-traditional brokerage services and therefore encourage competition. Using several empirical strategies and state-level data over nine years (2000-08), we do not find any consistent and significant impact (positive/negative) of minimum services laws on number of licensees per 100 households, our proxy for competition. Interestingly, we also find that association strength, as measured by Realtor association membership penetration, has a strong deterring effect on competition.

Evidence of cycles in European commercial real estate markets and some hypotheses

In this paper, we seek to achieve four objectives. First, we provide some contextual material concerning the performance of the UK real estate market relative to stocks and bonds over a long period. Second, we provide UK – and some non-UK European - evidence of the tendency for property demand, supply, prices and returns to fluctuate around their long term trends or averages. Third, we briefly examine some hypotheses which suggest institutional contributions to property cycles in European markets. Fourth, we suggest some reasons why the future may not be as cyclical as the past.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Broker use and the cost of liquidity in commercial real estate investment

Purpose – Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics. Findings – Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded. Originality/value – Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Real Estate. Circolazione, garanzie, tutele

Nonostante la riforma societaria ed i tentativi di rilanciare l’economia nazionale, ancora oggi la principale fonte di ricchezza e di capitalizzazione resta l’investimento immobiliare. Ed ecco perchè si sente sempre più parlare di “Real Estate”, ovvero dei diritti reali sui beni immobili, della loro circolazione, e delle garanzie e tutele ad essa correlate. Dalla vendita immobiliare tipizzata nel codice civile del ’42 ad oggi molto è cambiato. E il mio lavoro parte proprio da un’analisi delle nuove forme e dei nuovi limiti alla circolazione degli immobili. In primis ho affrontato il tema del riconoscimento giurisprudenziale della cessione di cubatura: un esempio tipico del passaggio dal fatto al diritto attraverso la costruzione giurisprudenziale di nuove fattispecie giuridiche già in uso fra gli operatori del mercato. Tecnicamente la stessa espressione “cessione di cubatura” non risulta corretta: non si ha una vera e propria cessione, quanto la costituzione di una servitù ius non edificandi a favore di un terreno e a carico di un altro. La giurisprudenza è ormai concorde nello stabilire che l’accordo delle parti rimane comunque privo di efficacia se ad esso non segue un permesso di costruire della Pubblica Amministrazione che riconosca la maggiore capacità edificatoria al terreno a cui vantaggio è stabilità la servitù. Un’altra nuova forma di circolazione della proprietà, così come degli altri diritti reali minori, è la multiproprietà. La multiproprietà viene disciplinata nel nostro ordinamento, a seguito di una risoluzione del Parlamento Europeo del 13 ottobre 1988, dapprima con il D.lgs. 9 novembre 1998 e da ultimo con il Codice del Consumo, che con gli artt. 69 ss. stabilisce una più puntuale tutela degli acquirenti. Si riconosce qui l’esistenza di uno squilibrio fra le posizioni contrattuali fra venditore ed acquirente/consumatore: vi è una profonda asimmetria informativa fra le parti, che viene colmata prevedendo la consegna al futuro acquirente di un dettagliato prospetto informativo predisposto dal venditore. La mia attenzione si è concentrata proprio sul tema delle tutele che il nostro ordinamento riconosce al consumatore multiproprietario: un prospetto informativo dal contenuto minimo legislativamente predeterminato, recesso, fideiussione. Ho dedicato un particolare approfondimento alla normativa sull’acquisto immobiliare sulla carta. Il D.lgs. 122/2005 si inserisce nel contesto di una legislazione, che spesso trova la sua origine nel diritto privato europeo, finalizzata alla regolamentazione di un fenomeno sempre più frequente nella realtà economica contemporanea, rappresentato dalla contrattazione fra soggetti che si trovano in una posizione di squilibrio contrattuale: un “contraente forte” da una parte, ed un “contraente debole” dall’altra. La legislazione nazionale interviene sempre più frequentemente per porre un rimedio a queste situazioni di squilibrio, con interventi di tipo conformativo intesi a rendere effettiva l’autonoma contrattuale delle parti e, conseguentemente, agevolare il corretto funzionamento del mercato. Si parla in tal senso di una ius espansiva del modello europeo di legislazione a tutela del contraente debole, e quindi di una espansione del diritto privato europeo anche in settori dove manca una puntuale normativa comunitaria. Vi è una generale tendenza ad un “neoformalismo”, che consiste nella richiesta espressa della forma scritta e nella conformazione del contenuto del contratto, che solo apparentemente limitano l’autonomia contrattuale delle parti ma che tende ad eliminare le situazioni di squilibrio dando una tutela effettiva al contraente debole. Contraente debole e non “consumatore”. L’art. 1 del decreto parla, infatti, espressamente di “persona fisica”. Secondo gli orientamenti dottrinali maggioritari dalla nuova disciplina resterebbero esclusi, e quindi non rientrerebbero nella definizione di “acquirenti”, le società, le persone giuridiche e gli enti collettivi in generale. Si riconosce la figura del “professionista debole”, giacché si riconosce che l’acquisto di un immobile da costruire sia un’operazione che, in virtù della sua importanza economica, viene gestita con maggiore avvedutezza: l’acquisto di un immobile non è propriamente “atto di consumo”in senso tecnico. L’esigenza di tutela è diversa: si vuole tutelare l’acquirente in considerazione dell’intrinseca rischiosità dell’operazione, stabilendo alcuni profili fondamentali del contenuto del contratto non solo e non tanto a fini informativi, quanto piuttosto per una “tutela sostanziale” dell’acquirente. Il legislatore si preoccupa di predisporre garanzie obbligatorie per il caso di dissesto dell’impresa costruttrice. Le garanzie, quindi, come forma di tutela del contraente debole. Il mio lavoro si concentra, a questo punto, sulle garanzie personali e reali. Poche le novità sulle garanzie, ma alcune significative. Nel campo delle garanzie personali, acquista maggiore rilevanza la fideiussione prestata dal contraente forte a favore del contraente debole, affinché quest’ultimo possa recuperare tutte le somme investite per l’acquisto dell’immobile: sia esso un immobile in multiproprietà, sia esso un immobile ancora da costruire. E ancora le garanzie reali: pegno e ipoteca. Ho posto particolare attenzione al tema della "portabilità" dei mutui e surrogazione ex art. 1202 c.c. ed al tema delle formalità ipotecarie così come previsti dagli artt. 6, 7 e 8 della l. 2 aprile 2007, n. 40 sulla concorrenza. Ma la mia attenzione si è soffermata soprattutto sul tema della nullità ed in particolare sulla nullità relativa. La più recente legislazione speciale, specie quella di derivazione europea, ha dato un grosso scossone alla dogmatica tradizionale della nullità negoziale. Le fattispecie di nullità relativa sono sempre più frequenti, tanto da far parlare di una nuova categoria di nullità c.d. “nullità di protezione”. Quest’ultima risponde ad esigenze profondamente differenti dalla nullità assoluta di stampo codicistico. In luogo della nullità, sembra oggi più corretto parlare delle nullità: diverse categorie di invalidità, ciascuna delle quali soddisfa interessi diversificati, e come tale riceve anche una disciplina differenziata in termini di legittimazione all’azione, rilevabilità d’ufficio, prescrittibilità, sanabilità, opponibilità ai terzi. Ancora una volta partendo da un’analisi critica del D.lgs. 122/2005, ho avuto modo di approfondire il fondamentale tema della nullità nel nostro ordinamento. L’art. 2 del decreto stabilisce espressamente la nullità relativa, e cioè azionabile dal solo acquirente parte debole del contratto, nel caso in cui non sia rilasciata dal venditore la fideiussione. L’art. 6 stabilisce, invece, un contenuto minimo del contratto poste a tutela della parte debole e del corretto funzionamento del mercato immobiliare. Se ad alcune di esse può attribuirsi un valore meramente ordinatorio, altre al contrario rivestono una natura di norme imperative di ordine pubblico attinenti più precisamente al c.d. ordine pubblico di protezione ed al c.d. ordine pubblico di direzione. Nel sistema del nostro codice, la violazione di norma imperative dà luogo, ex art. 1418, alla nullità del contatto salvo che la legge stabilisca diversamente. E’quindi configurabile una nullità virtuale del contratto, ovvero non espressamente e letteralmente stabilita, ma che può essere desunta dal tenore imperativo delle norme. La dottrina prevalente è ormai orientata nel senso di ammettere che anche la nullità relativa possa essere virtuale, nel quadro di un orientamento, ormai dominante, volto al superamento dell’approccio tendente a far rientrare nell’eccezionalità qualsiasi difformità dal modello classico della nullità. Il problema, quindi, si sposta all’individuazione della natura imperativa della norma violata. In linea generale si afferma che perché una norma possa essere definita imperativa debba porre un comando o un divieto espresso, debba essere inderogabile ed indisponibile. Oggetto di dibattiti dottrinali è, poi, il tema della rilevabilità d’ufficio delle nullità relative. A fronte di una prima posizione dottrinale tendente ad escludere tale rilevabilità d’ufficio sul presupposto di una sua inconciliabilità con il regime di legittimazione relativa all’azione di nullità, dottrina e giurisprudenza più recenti appaiono concordi nel ritenere assolutamente conciliabili tali due profili. Si concorda, inoltre, sull’esistenza di limitazioni alla rilevabilità d’ufficio della nullità: la nullità può essere rilevata d’ufficio dal giudice, ma tale rilievo deve operare nell’esclusivo interesse del contraente debole, dovendo il giudice bloccarsi davanti ad un concreto interesse della parte a mantenere in vita il contratto. Discorso a sé stante deve poi esser fatto sul rapporto fra nullità relativa e nullità virtuale e responsabilità del notaio rogante. Secondo l’orientamento dominante della giurisprudenza, nella misura in cui vi sia una violazione di norme imperative, e l’imperatività sia evidente, manifesta, dal tenore delle disposizioni, deve ritenersi che la nullità, sia testuale che virtuale, comporti la responsabilità del notaio ai sensi dell’art. 28 l. not. Ogni qualvolta, viceversa, tale nullità non si configuri, la responsabilità disciplinare sarà esclusa. Si avverte, comunque, una prima apertura verso la sanzionabilità delle nullità relative che siano manifeste. In chiusura del mio lavoro non ho potuto non tenere conto della recente crisi dei mercati internazionali. Crisi che ha avuto inizio proprio con il crollo negli Stati Uniti dei settori immobiliare e finanziario, improntati verso una eccessiva deregolamentazione e valorizzazione dell’autonomia contrattuale delle parti. L’assenza di garanzie sicure e la carenza di controllo di un professionista corrispondente al nostro notaio pubblico ufficiale, ha portato ad investimenti e finanziamenti azzardati da parte delle banche e degli istituti di credito che stanno vivendo un momento di profonda crisi aprendo la strada ad una recessione economica di portata mondiale.

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.