Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia

This paper presents findings from the rural and remote road safety study, conducted in Queensland, Australia, from March 2004 till June 2007, and compares fatal crashes and non-fatal but serious crashes in respect of their environmental, vehicle and operator factors. During the study period there were 613 non-fatal crashes resulting in 684 hospitalised casualties and 119 fatal crashes resulting in 130 fatalities. Additional information from police sources was available on 103 fatal and 309 non-fatal serious crashes. Over three quarters of both fatal and hospitalised casualties were male and the median age in both groups was 34 years. Fatal crashes were more likely to involve speed, alcohol and violations of road rules and fatal crash victims were 2 and a 1/2 times more likely to be unrestrained inside the vehicle than non-fatal casualties, consistent with current international evidence. After controlling for human factors, vehicle and road conditions made a minimal contribution to the seriousness of the crash outcome. Targeted interventions to prevent fatalities on rural and remote roads should focus on reducing speed and drink driving and promoting seatbelt wearing.

Comparison of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference vs. triglyceride levels and waist circumference in predicting coronary heart disease risk

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.

Long-term safety of intramuscular gene transfer of non-viral FGF1 for peripheral artery disease

Peripheral artery disease is a progressive disease. Primary ischemic leg symptoms are muscle fatigue, discomfort or pain during ambulation, known as intermittent claudication. The most severe manifestation of peripheral artery disease is critical limb ischemia (CLI). The long-term safety of gene therapy in peripheral artery disease remains unclear. This four center peripheral artery disease registry was designed to evaluate the long-term safety of the intramuscular non-viral fibroblast growth factor-1 (NV1FGF), a plasmid-based angiogenic gene for local expression of fibroblast growth factor-1 versus placebo in patients with peripheral artery disease who had been included in five different phase I and II trials. Here we report a 3-year follow-up in patients suffering from CLI or intermittent claudication. There were 93 evaluable patients, 72 of them in Fontaine stage IV (47 NV1FGF versus 25 placebo) and 21 patients in Fontaine stage IIb peripheral artery disease (15 NV1FGF versus 6 placebo). Safety parameters included rates of non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, death, cancer, retinopathy and renal dysfunction. At 3 years, in 93 patients included this registry, there was no increase in retinopathy or renal dysfunction associated with delivery of this angiogenic factor. There was also no difference in the number of strokes, MI or deaths, respectively, for NV1FGF versus placebo. In the CLI group, new cancer occurred in two patients in the NV1FGF group. Conclusions that can be drawn from this relatively small patient group are limited because of the number of patients followed and can only be restricted to safety. Yet, data presented may be valuable concerning rates in cancer, retinopathy, MI or strokes following angiogenesis gene therapy in the absence of any long-term data in angiogenesis gene therapy. It may take several years until data from larger patient populations will become available.

Temporary scaffolding of coronary arteries with bioabsorbable magnesium stents: a prospective, non-randomised multicentre trial

BACKGROUND: Coronary stents improve immediate and late results of balloon angioplasty by tacking up dissections and preventing wall recoil. These goals are achieved within weeks after angioplasty, but with current technology stents permanently remain in the artery, with many limitations including the need for long-term antiplatelet treatment to avoid thrombosis. We report a prospective multicentre clinical trial of coronary implantations of absorbable magnesium stents. METHODS: We enrolled 63 patients (44 men; mean age 61.3 [SD 9.5 years]) in eight centres with single de novo lesions in a native coronary artery in a multicentre, non-randomised prospective study. Follow-up included coronary angiography and intravascular ultrasound at 4 months and clinical assessment at 6 months and 12 months. The primary endpoint was cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or clinically driven target lesion revascularisation at 4 months FINDINGS: 71 stents, 10-15 mm in length and 3.0-3.5 mm in diameter, were successfully implanted after pre-dilatation in 63 patients. Diameter stenosis was reduced from 61.5 (SD 13.1%) to 12.6 (5.6%) with an acute gain of 1.41 mm (0.46 mm) and in-stent late loss of 1.08 mm (0.49 mm). The ischaemia-driven target lesion revascularisation rate was 23.8% after 4 months, and the overall target lesion revascularisation rate was 45% after 1 year. No myocardial infarction, subacute or late thrombosis, or death occurred. Angiography at 4 months showed an increased diameter stenosis of 48.4 (17.0%). After serial intravascular ultrasound examinations, only small remnants of the original struts were visible, well embedded into the intima. Neointimal growth and negative remodelling were the main operating mechanisms of restenosis. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that biodegradable magnesium stents can achieve an immediate angiographic result similar to the result of other metal stents and can be safely degraded after 4 months. Modifications of stent characteristics with prolonged degradation and drug elution are currently in development.

Burden of disease and injury in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory

Objective: To quantify the burden of disease and injury for the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory. Design and setting: Analysis of Northern Territory data for 1 January 1994 to 30 December 1998 from multiple sources. Main outcome measures: Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age, sex, cause and Aboriginality. Results: Cardiovascular disease was the leading contributor (14.9%) to the total burden of disease and injury in the NT, followed by mental disorders (14.5%) and malignant neoplasms (11.2%). There was also a substantial contribution from unintentional injury (10.4%) and intentional injury (4.9%). Overall, the NT Aboriginal population had a rate of burden of disease 2.5 times higher than the non-Aboriginal population; in the 35-54-year age group their DALY rate was 4.1 times higher. The leading causes of disease burden were cardiovascular disease for both Aboriginal men (19.1%) and women (15.7%) and mental disorders for both non-Aboriginal men (16.7%) and women (22.3%). Conclusions: A comprehensive assessment of fatal and non-fatal conditions is important in describing differentials in health status of the NT population. Our study provides comparative data to identify health priorities and facilitate a more equitable distribution of health funding.

The Cardiovascular Pathology of Stimulant Overdose Decedents in King County, Washington

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-09

The public health challenges of mental health problems and associated difficulties

Mental health is a major global health issue. Neuropsychiatric conditions are the most significant cause of disability worldwide, and account for 14% of the global burden of disease. Depression in particular places a huge burden on society, with the Global Burden of Disease 2000 study listing it as the fourth leading cause of disease burden worldwide and the largest non-fatal disease burden. In Australia, mental disorders are startlingly common and related to significant disability. The 2007 National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing revealed that the lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 45%, and within the last 12 months 20% of Australians met criteria for a mental disorder. Many of the articles in this issue explore mental health issues in young people. Indeed, mental health issues account for a large proportion of the disease burden in young people. Across the globe, mental health disorders caused the greatest number of years lost to disability(YLDs) amongst young people aged 10 to 24 years (45% of total YLDs). Depression caused the highest number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across this age group, accounting for 8. 2% of DALYs alone.6 It is clear that mental health is a critical area of focus for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Characteristics of low-speed vehicle run-over events in children : an 11-year review

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics associated with fatal and non-fatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) events in relation to person, incident and injury characteristics, in order to identify appropriate points for intervention and injury prevention. Methods: Data on all known LSVRO events in Queensland, Australia, over 11 calendar years (1999–2009) were extracted from five different databases representing the continuum of care ( prehospital to fatality) and manually linked. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the sample characteristics in relation to demographics, health service usage, outcomes, incident characteristics, and injury characteristics. Results: Of the 1641 LSVRO incidents, 98.4% (n=1615) were non-fatal, and 1.6% were fatal (n=26). Over half the children required admission to hospital (56%, n=921); mean length of stay was 3.4 days. Younger children aged 0–4 years were more frequently injured, and experienced more serious injuries with worse outcomes. Patterns of injury (injury type and severity), injury characteristics (eg, time of injury, vehicle type, driver of vehicle, incident location), and demographic characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, indigenous status, remoteness), varied according to age group. Almost half (45.6%; n=737) the events occurred outside major cities, and approximately 10% of events involved indigenous children. Parents were most commonly the vehicle drivers in fatal incidents. While larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives (4WD) were most frequently involved in LSVRO events resulting in fatalities, cars were most frequently involved in non-fatal events. Conclusions: This is the first study, to the authors’ knowledge, to analyse the characteristics of fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events in children aged 0–15 years on a state-wide basis. Characteristics of LSVRO events varied with age, thus age-specific interventions are required. Children living outside major cities, and indigenous children, were over-represented in these data. Further research is required to identify the burden of injury in these groups.

Best practice in peer-led curriculum content : informing an interactive program to improve passenger safety among high school seniors

Despite ongoing improvements in behaviour change strategies, licensing models and road law enforcement measures young drivers remain significantly over-represented in fatal and non-fatal road related crashes. This paper focuses on the safety of those approaching driving age and identifies both high priority road safety messages and relevant peer-led strategies to guide the development school programs. It summarises the review in a program logic model built around the messages and identified curriculum elements, as they may be best operationalised within the licensing and school contexts in Victoria. This paper summarises a review of common deliberate risk-taking and non-deliberate unsafe driving behaviours among novice drivers, highlighting risks associated with speeding, driving while fatigued, driving while impaired and carrying passengers. Common beliefs of young people that predict risky driving were reviewed, particularly with consideration of those beliefs that can be operationalised in a behaviour change school program. Key components of adolescent risk behaviour change programs were also reviewed, which identified a number of strategies for incorporation in a school based behaviour change program, including: a well-structured theoretical design and delivery, thoughtfully considered peer-selected processes, adequate training and supervision of peer facilitators, a process for monitoring and sustainability, and interactive delivery and participant discussions. The research base is then summarised in a program logic model with further discussion about the quality of the current state of knowledge of evaluation of behaviour change programs and the need for considerable development in program evaluation.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Maintaining or changing a drinking behavior? GOKA's short-term outcomes

During the critical neurobiological and social developmental period of adolescence, binge drinking of alcohol increases the risk of mental health problems, school exclusion, convictions, fatal and non-fatal accidents. The present research utilizes a simple cluster randomized control trial design to evaluate a social marketing program, Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA), employing innovative online edutainment games to target binge drinking. Pre and post data were collected for seven program (942 students, mean age: 14.6 years) and five control schools (578 students, mean age: 14.4 years). Significant improvements in alcohol knowledge and affective attitude toward binge drinking was observed for adolescents who participated in GOKA compared to the control group, with maintenance of desirable subjective norms, instrumental attitudes and intentions. Given considerable external competition from messages promoting the benefits of alcohol use, a one-off program that modifies incorrect knowledge and alters perceptions of binge drinking as a fun, recreational activity represents an important step. This research contributes to current understanding of social marketing’s capacity to change drivers and maintain inhibitors of binge drinking intentions of adolescents and provides an important basis for future research in the domain.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Mental Disorders in Finland

Quality of life (QoL) and Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are becoming one of the key outcomes of health care due to increased respect for the subjective valuations and well-being of patients and an increasing part of the ageing population living with chronic, non-fatal conditions. Preference-based HRQoL measures enable estimation of health utility, which can be useful for rational rationing, evidence-based medicine and health policy. This study aimed to compare the individual severity and public health burden of major chronic conditions in Finland, including and focusing on reliably diagnosed psychiatric conditions. The study is based on the Health 2000 survey, a representative general population survey of 8028 Finns aged 30 and over. Depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). HRQoL was measured with the 15D and the EQ-5D, with 83% response rate. This study found that people with psychiatric disorders had the lowest 15D HRQoL scores at all ages, in comparison to other main groups of chronic conditions. Considering 29 individual conditions, three of the four most severe (on 15D) were psychiatric disorders; the most severe was Parkinson s disease. Of the psychiatric disorders, chronic conditions that have sometimes been considered relatively mild - dysthymia, agoraphobia, generalized anxiety disorder and social phobia - were found to be the most severe. This was explained both by the severity of the impact of these disorders on mental health domains of HRQoL, and also by the fact that decreases were widespread on most dimensions of HRQoL. Considering the public health burden of conditions, musculoskeletal disorders were associated with the largest burden, followed by psychiatric disorders. Psychiatric disorders were associated with the largest burden at younger ages. Of individual conditions, the largest burden found was for depressive disorders, followed by urinary incontinence and arthrosis of the hip and knee. The public health burden increased greatly with age, so the ageing of the Finnish population will mean that the disease burden caused by chronic conditions will increase by a quarter up to year 2040, if morbidity patterns do not change. Investigating alcohol consumption and HRQoL revealed that although abstainers had poorer HRQoL than moderate drinkers, this was mainly due to many abstainers being former drinkers and having the poorest HRQoL. Moderate drinkers did not have significantly better HRQoL than abstainers who were not former drinkers. Psychiatric disorders are associated with a large part of the non-fatal disease burden in Finland. In particular anxiety disorders appear to be more severe and have a larger public health burden than previously thought.