Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Long-term effects of calcium-vitamin-D3-fortified milk on bone geometry and strength in older men

The long-term effects of calcium and vitamin D supplementation on bone material and structural properties in older men are not known. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of high calcium (1000 mg/day)- and vitamin-D3 (800 IU/day)-fortified milk on cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone geometry at the axial and appendicular skeleton in men aged over 50 years. One hundred and eleven men who were part of a larger 2-year randomized controlled trial had QCT scans of the mid-femur and lumbar spine (L1–L3) to assess vBMD, bone geometry and indices of bone strength [polar moment of inertia (Ipolar)]. After 2 years, there were no significant differences between the milk supplementation and control group for the change in any mid-femur or L1–L3 bone parameters for all men aged over 50 years. However, the mid-femur skeletal responses to the fortified milk varied according to age, with a split of ≤62 versus >62 years being the most significant for discriminating the changes between the two groups. Subsequent analysis revealed that, in the older men (>62 years), the expansion in mid-femur medullary area was 2.8% (P < 0.01) less in the milk supplementation compared to control group, which helped to preserve cortical area in the milk supplementation group (between group difference 1.1%, P < 0.01). Similarly, for mid-femur cortical vBMD and Ipolar, the net loss was 2.3 and 2.8% less in the milk supplementation compared to control group (P < 0.01 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, calcium–vitamin-D3-fortified milk may represent an effective strategy to maintain bone strength by preventing endocortical bone loss and slowing the loss in cortical vBMD in elderly men.

A Framework for Monitoring Agent-Based Normative Systems

The behaviours of autonomous agents may deviate from those deemed to be for the good of the societal systems of which they are a part. Norms have therefore been proposed as a means to regulate agent behaviours in open and dynamic systems, where these norms specify the obliged, permitted and prohibited behaviours of agents. Regulation can effectively be achieved through use of enforcement mechanisms that result in a net loss of utility for an agent in cases where the agent's behaviour fails to comply with the norms. Recognition of compliance is thus crucial for achieving regulation. In this paper we propose a generic architecture for observation of agent behaviours, and recognition of these behaviours as constituting, or counting as, compliance or violation. The architecture deploys monitors that receive inputs from observers, and processes these inputs together with transition network representations of individual norms. In this way, monitors determine the fulfillment or violation status of norms. The paper also describes a proof of concept implementation and deployment of monitors in electronic contracting environments.

A Framework for Monitoring Agent-Based Normative Systems

The behaviours of autonomous agents may deviate from those deemed to be for the good of the societal systems of which they are a part. Norms have therefore been proposed as a means to regulate agent behaviours in open and dynamic systems, where these norms specify the obliged, permitted and prohibited behaviours of agents. Regulation can effectively be achieved through use of enforcement mechanisms that result in a net loss of utility for an agent in cases where the agent’s behaviour fails to comply with the norms. Recognition of compliance is thus crucial for achieving regulation. In this paper we propose a generic architecture for observation of agent behaviours, and recognition of these behaviours as constituting, or counting as, compliance or violation. The architecture deploys monitors that receive inputs from observers, and processes these inputs together with transition network representations of individual norms. In this way, monitors determine the fulfillment or violation status of norms. The paper also describes a proof of concept implementation and deployment of monitors in electronic contracting environments.

Using shopping mall attributes to revitalise Australian small town retailing

As has occurred in many smaller rural communities in America, Europe and Canada much of inland Australia has experienced population decline involving both a net loss of people a disproportionate ageing of the population and low average family incomes. Some Australian country towns have ceased to function as retail and administrative centres while other rural areas are faced with the prospect of losing critically important retail outlets and service providers. Australian rural towns are under threat from residents outshopping at nearby large regional centres leading to the loss of businesses and services in small service towns. This paper explores the possibility of how and why retailers and service providers in Australian country towns can and should emulate certain attributes of shopping malls in an attempt to stem the rise of outshopping. Using data collected in one small Australian rural community the paper comments on residents' perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of retailing and the provision of services in their local community and what respondents thought should be done to diminish retail leakage from their town. Based on their responses it is clear that to remain competitive, retailers in smaller rural towns need to learn from the experience of shopping malls with whom they must now compete to survive. In this paper, it is argued that in certain areas this is not only possible, but essential if retailing is to remain viable in Australian country towns.

Towards a standardised methodology for estimating alcohol-caused death, injury and illness in Australia

Two key methodological issues underlying different methods for calculating estimates of the number of alcohol-caused deaths are identified and recommendations suggested for future work.

1. How to adjust alcohol aetiologic fractions across time and place to reflect different levels of risky drinking. A common approach is outlined for both acute and chronic alcohol-related conditions. In the absence of consistent, reliable and regionally specific measures of the prevalence of risky alcohol consumption from national surveys, the use of per capita consumption data as a means of adjusting alcohol population aetiologic fractions over time and across regions is recommended.

2. Whether abstainers or low-risk drinkers should be used as the reference group when assessing the impact of alcohol consumption and how the resulting information is best presented. It is recommended that when abstainers are used as the reference group, the costs and benefits for both 'low-risk' and 'risky/high-risk' drinking should be identified. Using this approach, it was estimated that for Australia in 1998 there was a net benefit of 5,100 lives saved due to low-risk drinking, while there was a net loss of 2,737 lives due to risky/high-risk drinking. On its own, the figure of a net saving of 2,363 lives per year is a simplistic and potentially misleading picture of alcohol as a net benefit to public health and safety. For public health communications, there is still value in providing estimates using the low-risk drinking contrast, of the number of lives saved if risky/high-risk drinkers all became low-risk drinkers (n=3,292 in 1998). The use of the abstinence contrast, however, allows the more complex picture of alcohol's impact on public health to be apparent, e.g. including the estimated 1,505 deaths associated with low-risk drinking (mostly from cancer).

Corner inlet and Nooramunga habitat mapping project

Deakin University and the University of Tasmania were commissioned by Parks Victoria (PV) to create two updated habitat maps for areas within the Corner Inlet and Nooramunga Marine and Coastal Park and Ramsar area. The team obtained a ground-truth data set using in situ video and still photographs. This dataset was used to develop and assess predictive models of benthic marine habitat distributions incorporating data from both ALOS (Advanced Land Observation Satellite) imagery atmospherically corrected by CSIRO and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) bathymetry. This report describes the results of the mapping effort as well as the methodology used to produce these habitat maps.

Overall accuracies of habitat classifications were good, returning overall accuracies >73 % and kappa values > 0.62 for both study localities. Habitats predicted with highest accuracies included Zosteraceae in Nooramunga (91 %), reef in Corner Inlet (80 %), and bare sediment (no-visible macrobiota/no-visible seagrass classes; both > 76 %). The majority of classification errors were due to the misclassification of areas of sparse seagrass as bare sediment. For the Corner Inlet study locality the no-visible macrobiota (10,698 ha), Posidonia (4,608 ha) and Zosteraceae (4,229 ha) habitat classes covered the most area. In Nooramunga no-visible seagrass (5,538 ha), Zosteraceae (4,060 ha) and wet saltmarsh (1,562 ha) habitat classes were most dominant.

In addition to the commissioned work preliminary change detection analyses were undertaken as part of this project. These analyses indicated shifts in habitat extents in both study localities since the late 1990s/2000. In particular, a post-classification analysis highlighted that there were considerable increases in seagrass habitat (primarily Zosteraceae) throughout the littoral zones and river/creek mouths of both study localities. Further, the numerous channel systems remained stable and were free of seagrass at both times. A substantial net loss of Posidonia in the Corner Inlet locality is likely but requires further investigation due to potential misclassifications between habitats in both the 1998 map (Roob et al. 1998) and the current mapping. While the unsupervised Independent Components Analysis (ICA) change detection technique indicated some changes in habitat extent and distribution, considerable areas of habitat change observed in the post-classification approach are questionable, and may reflect misclassifications rather than real change. A particular example of this is an apparent large decrease in Zosteraceae and increase in Posidonia being related to the classification of Posidonia beds as Zosteraceae in the 1998 mapping. Despite this, we believe that changes indicated by both the ICA and post-classification approaches have a high likelihood of being ‘actual’ change. A pattern of gains and losses of Zosteraceae in the region north of Stockyard channel is an example of this. Further analyses and refinements of approaches in change detection analyses such as would improve confidence in the location and extent of habitat changes over this time period.

This work has been successful in providing new baseline maps using a repeatable method meaning that any future changes in intertidal and shallow water marine habitats may be assessed in a consistent way with quantitative error assessments. In wider use, these maps should also allow improved conservation planning, advance fisheries and catchment management, and progress infrastructure planning to limit impacts on the Inlet environment.

República Dominicana: evaluación de los daños ocasionados por las inundaciones en las Cuencas Yaque del Norte y Yuna, 2003

Incluye Bibliografía

The United States-Central American Free Trade Agreement: fiscal implications for the Central American countries

Includes bibliography

A poverty profile and functional aspects of Brazilian labour markets

Includes bibliography

Dynamics of the cold surface layer of polythermal Storglaciären, Sweden

Polythermal glaciers, i.e. glaciers with a combination of ice at and below the freezing point, are widespread in arctic and subarctic environments. The polythermal structure has major implications for glacier hydrology, ice flow and glacial erosion. However, the interplay of factors governing its spatial and temporal variations such as net mass balance, ice advection and water content in the ice is poorly investigated and as yet not fully understood. This study deals with a thorough investigation of the polythermal regime on Storglaciären, northern Sweden, a small valley glacier with a cold surface layer in the ablation area. Extensive field work was performed including mapping of the cold surface layer using ground-penetrating radar, ice temperature measurements, mass balance and ice velocity measurements. Analyses of these data combined with numerical modelling were used specifically to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the cold surface layer, the spatial distribution of the water content just below the cold surface layer transition, the effect of radar frequency on the detection of the surface layer, and the sensitivity of the cold surface layer to changes in forcing. A comparison between direct temperature measurements in boreholes and ground-penetrating surveys shows that the radar-inferred cold-temperate transition depth is within ±1 m from the melting point of ice at frequencies above ~300 MHz. At frequencies below ~155 MHz, the accuracy degrades because of reduced scattering efficiency that occurs when the scatterers become much smaller compared to the wavelength. The mapped spatial pattern of the englacial cold-temperate transition boundary is complex. This pattern reflects the observed spatial variation in net loss of ice at the surface by ablation and vertical advection of ice, which is suggested to provide the predominant forcing of the cold surface layer thickness pattern. This is further supported by thermomechanical modeling of the cold surface layer, which indicates high sensitivity of the cold surface layer thickness to changes in vertical advection rates. The water content is the least investigated quantity that is relevant for the thermal regime of glaciers, but also the most difficult to assess. Spatial variability of absolute water content in the temperate ice immediately below the cold surface layer on Storglaciären was determined by combining relative estimates of water content from ground-penetrating radar data with absolute determination from temperature measurements and the thermal boundary condition at the freezing front. These measurements indicate large-scale spatial variability in the water content, which seems to arise from variations in entrapment of water at the firn-ice transition. However, this variability cannot alone explain the spatial pattern in the thermal regime on Storglaciären. Repeated surveys of the cold surface layer show a 22% average thinning of the cold surface layer on Storglaciären between 1989 and 2001. Transient thermomechanical modeling results suggest that the cold surface layer adapts to new equilibrium conditions in only a few decades after a perturbation in the forcing is introduced. An increased winter air temperature since mid-1980s seems to be the cause of the observed thinning of the cold surface layer. Over the last decades, mass balance measurements indicate that the glacier has been close to a steady state. The quasi-steady state situation is also reflected in the vertical advection, which shows no significant changes during the last decades. Increased winter temperatures at the ice surface would result in a slow-down of the formation of cold ice at the base of the cold surface layer and lead to a larger imbalance between net loss of ice at the surface and freezing of temperate ice at the cold-temperate transition.

Food Security and Agri-Foreign Direct Investment in Weak States: Finding the Governance Gap to Avoid ‘Land Grab’

Food security is important. A rising world population coupled with climate change creates growing pressure on global world food supplies. States alleviate this pressure domestically by attracting agri-foreign direct investment (agri-FDI). This is a high-risk strategy for weak states: the state may gain valuable foreign currency, technology and debt-free growth; but equally, investors may fail to deliver on their commitments and exploit weak domestic legal infrastructure to ‘grab’ large areas of prime agricultural land, leaving only marginal land for domestic production. A net loss to local food security and to the national economy results. This is problematic because the state must continue to guarantee its citizens’ right to food and property. Agri-FDI needs close regulation to maximise its benefit. This article maps the multilevel system of governance covering agri-FDI. We show how this system creates asymmetric rights in favour of the investor to the detriment of the host state’s food security and how these problems might be alleviated.

A systematic evaluation of the Zr-in-rutile thermometer in ultra-high temperature (UHT) rocks

The Zr-in-rutile geothermometer is potentially a widely applicable tool to estimate peak metamorphic temperatures in rocks from diverse geological settings. In order to evaluate its usefulness and reliability to record and preserve high temperatures in granulite facies rocks, rutile from UHT rocks was investigated to assess different mechanisms of Zr (re-)distribution following cooling from high temperature. Granulite facies paragneisses from the lowermost part of the Ivrea Zone, Italy, incorporated as thin sheets into the extensive basaltic body of the Mafic Complex were selected for this study. The results show that Zr-in-rutile thermometry, if properly applied, is well suited to identify and study UHT terranes as it preserves a record of temperatures up to 1190 °C, although the thermometer is susceptible to partial post-peak metamorphic resetting by Zr diffusion. Texturally homogeneous rutile grains preserve Zr concentrations corresponding to temperatures of prograde rutile growth. Diverse rutile textures and relationships between some rutile host grains and included or adjacent Zr-bearing phases bear testimony to varying mechanisms of partial redistribution and resetting of Zr in rutile during cooling and link Zr-in-rutile temperatures to different steps of the metamorphic evolution. Rutile grains that equilibrated their Zr concentrations at temperatures above 1070 °C (i.e. 1.1 wt% Zr) could not retain all Zr in the rutile structure during cooling and exsolved baddeleyite (ZrO2). By subsequent reaction of baddeleyite exsolution lamellae with SiO2, zircon needles formed before the system finally closed at 650–700 °C without significant net loss of Zr from the whole host rutile grain. By reintegration of zircon exsolution needles, peak metamorphic temperatures of up to 1190 °C are derived for the studied rocks, which demonstrates the suitability of this solution thermometer to record UHT conditions and also confirms the extraordinary geological setting of the lowermost part of the Ivrea Zone.

Contractual Difficulties in Environmental Management and the Protection of Biodiversity: The Case of Conservation and Mitigation Banking

This paper offers a principal-agent model of feasible private contracting in mitigation and conservation banking aimed at the protection of natural habitat and bio-diversity of US wetlands and uplands. It is shown that while it is straightforward to design an incentive contract, such a contract may not achieve the federally mandated objective of no net loss of habitat. This is because the minimum payment required as an economic incentive to private agents may be greater than what they should receive for the habitat values that they actually created in the field. This possible problem is shown to derive from nonconvexity in the production possibility set between the biological value of land as natural habitat and in non-habitat uses such as in urban development. The paper concludes with a consideration of several institutional devises that may promote the convergence of private contracting and the attainment of no net loss. These include the payment of subsidies, greater accuracy in the identification of actual quality by the principal, and the use of several incentive alignment devises.

Model results of sensitivity experiments for marine nitrogen cycle in four NetCDF files

The marine nitrogen (N) inventory is thought to be stabilized by negative feedback mechanisms that reduce N inventory excursions relative to the more slowly overturning phosphorus inventory. Using a global biogeochemical ocean circulation model we show that negative feedbacks stabilizing the N inventory cannot persist if a close spatial association of N2 fixation and denitrification occurs. In our idealized model experiments, nitrogen deficient waters, generated by denitrification, stimulate local N2 fixation activity. But, because of stoichiometric constraints, the denitrification of newly fixed nitrogen leads to a net loss of N. This can enhance the N deficit, thereby triggering additional fixation in a vicious cycle, ultimately leading to a runaway N loss. To break this vicious cycle, and allow for stabilizing negative feedbacks to occur, inputs of new N need to be spatially decoupled from denitrification. Our idealized model experiments suggest that factors such as iron limitation or dissolved organic matter cycling can promote such decoupling and allow for negative feedbacks that stabilize the N inventory. Conversely, close spatial co-location of N2 fixation and denitrification could lead to net N loss.