Statistiques appliquées en chirurgie cardiaque adulte : analyses de survie et applications du “propensity score”

L'objectif principal de ce travail est d’étudier en profondeur certaines techniques biostatistiques avancées en recherche évaluative en chirurgie cardiaque adulte. Les études ont été conçues pour intégrer les concepts d'analyse de survie, analyse de régression avec “propensity score”, et analyse de coûts. Le premier manuscrit évalue la survie après la réparation chirurgicale de la dissection aigüe de l’aorte ascendante. Les analyses statistiques utilisées comprennent : analyses de survie avec régression paramétrique des phases de risque et d'autres méthodes paramétriques (exponentielle, Weibull), semi-paramétriques (Cox) ou non-paramétriques (Kaplan-Meier) ; survie comparée à une cohorte appariée pour l’âge, le sexe et la race utilisant des tables de statistiques de survie gouvernementales ; modèles de régression avec “bootstrapping” et “multinomial logit model”. L'étude a démontrée que la survie s'est améliorée sur 25 ans en lien avec des changements dans les techniques chirurgicales et d’imagerie diagnostique. Le second manuscrit est axé sur les résultats des pontages coronariens isolés chez des patients ayant des antécédents d'intervention coronarienne percutanée. Les analyses statistiques utilisées comprennent : modèles de régression avec “propensity score” ; algorithme complexe d'appariement (1:3) ; analyses statistiques appropriées pour les groupes appariés (différences standardisées, “generalized estimating equations”, modèle de Cox stratifié). L'étude a démontrée que l’intervention coronarienne percutanée subie 14 jours ou plus avant la chirurgie de pontages coronariens n'est pas associée à des résultats négatifs à court ou long terme. Le troisième manuscrit évalue les conséquences financières et les changements démographiques survenant pour un centre hospitalier universitaire suite à la mise en place d'un programme de chirurgie cardiaque satellite. Les analyses statistiques utilisées comprennent : modèles de régression multivariée “two-way” ANOVA (logistique, linéaire ou ordinale) ; “propensity score” ; analyses de coûts avec modèles paramétriques Log-Normal. Des modèles d’analyse de « survie » ont également été explorés, utilisant les «coûts» au lieu du « temps » comme variable dépendante, et ont menés à des conclusions similaires. L'étude a démontrée que, après la mise en place du programme satellite, moins de patients de faible complexité étaient référés de la région du programme satellite au centre hospitalier universitaire, avec une augmentation de la charge de travail infirmier et des coûts.

NOVEL PREDICTORS OF PERITONITIS-RELATED OUTCOMES IN THE BRAZPD COHORT

Introduction: Peritonitis remains the main cause of peritoneal dialysis (PD) technique failure worldwide, despite significant reductions in infection rates observed over the past decades. Several studies have described risk factors for peritonitis, technique failure and mortality. However, there are scarce data regarding predictors of complications during and after a peritonitis episode. The aim of our study was to analyze predictors of peritonitis-related outcome in the Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis study (BRAZPD) cohort.Methods: All adult incident patients recruited in the BRAZPD Study between December 2004 and October 2007, who remained at least 90 days on PD and presented their first peritonitis episode (n = 474 patients) were included in the study. The endpoints analyzed were non-resolution, death due to a peritonitis episode and long-term technique survival after a peritonitis episode.Results: In the multivariable regression, non-resolution was independently associated with older age (odds ratio (OR) 1.02; p < 0.01), collagenosis as the primary renal disease (OR 4.6; p < 0.05) and Pseudomonas spp as etiological agent (OR 2.9; p < 0.05). Patients who were transferred from APD to CAPD during peritonitis therapy presented a higher risk of non-response (OR 2.5; p < 0.05). The only factor associated with death during a peritonitis episode was older age (OR 1.04; p < 0.05). Exposure to vancomycin and male gender were the independent predictors of long-term technique failure (OR 2.2; p < 0.01).Conclusion: Apart from confirming previous observations of the negative impact of older age and Pseudomonas spp peritonitis on outcomes, we observed that collagenosis may negatively impact response to treatment and exposure to vancomycin may possibly reduce long-term technique survival. It is important to emphasize that the association of vancomycin with technique failure does not prove causality. These findings shed light on new factors predicting outcome when peritonitis is diagnosed.

Acute kidney injury in septic patients admitted to emergency clinical room: risk factors and outcome

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determinants of discordance in patients' and physicians' rating of rheumatoid arthritis disease activity

Objective To assess the determinants of patients' (PTGL) and physicians' (MDGL) global assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) activity and factors associated with discordance among them. Methods. A total of 7,028 patients in the Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA study had PTGL and MDGL assessed at the same clinic visit on a 0-10-cm visual analog scale (VAS). Three patient groups were defined: concordant rating group (PTGL and MDGL within >= 2 cm), higher patient rating group (PTGL exceeding MDGL by > 2 cm), and lower patient rating group (PTGL less than MDGL by > 2 cm). Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants of PTGL and MDGL and their discordance. Results. The mean +/- SD VAS scores for PTGL and MDGL were 4.01 +/- 2.70 and 2.91 +/- 2.37, respectively. Pain was overwhelmingly the single most important determinant of PTGL, followed by fatigue. In contrast, MDGL was most influenced by swollen joint count (SJC), followed by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and tender joint count (TJC). A total of 4,454 (63.4%), 2,106 (30%), and 468 (6.6%) patients were in the concordant, higher, and lower patient rating groups, respectively. Odds of higher patient rating increased with higher pain, fatigue, psychological distress, age, and morning stiffness, and decreased with higher SJC, TJC, and ESR. Lower patient rating odds increased with higher SJC, TJC, and ESR, and decreased with lower fatigue levels. Conclusion. Nearly 36% of patients had discordance in RA activity assessment from their physicians. Sensitivity to the "disease experience" of patients, particularly pain and fatigue, is warranted for effective care of RA.

Mathematical Modeling to Investigate Antiarrhythmic Drug Side Effects: Rate-Dependence Role in Ionic Currents and Action Potentials Shape in the O’Hara Model

Sudden cardiac death due to ventricular arrhythmia is one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In the last decades, it has proven that anti-arrhythmic drugs, which prolong the refractory period by means of prolongation of the cardiac action potential duration (APD), play a good role in preventing of relevant human arrhythmias. However, it has long been observed that the “class III antiarrhythmic effect” diminish at faster heart rates and that this phenomenon represent a big weakness, since it is the precise situation when arrhythmias are most prone to occur. It is well known that mathematical modeling is a useful tool for investigating cardiac cell behavior. In the last 60 years, a multitude of cardiac models has been created; from the pioneering work of Hodgkin and Huxley (1952), who first described the ionic currents of the squid giant axon quantitatively, mathematical modeling has made great strides. The O’Hara model, that I employed in this research work, is one of the modern computational models of ventricular myocyte, a new generation began in 1991 with ventricular cell model by Noble et al. Successful of these models is that you can generate novel predictions, suggest experiments and provide a quantitative understanding of underlying mechanism. Obviously, the drawback is that they remain simple models, they don’t represent the real system. The overall goal of this research is to give an additional tool, through mathematical modeling, to understand the behavior of the main ionic currents involved during the action potential (AP), especially underlining the differences between slower and faster heart rates. In particular to evaluate the rate-dependence role on the action potential duration, to implement a new method for interpreting ionic currents behavior after a perturbation effect and to verify the validity of the work proposed by Antonio Zaza using an injected current as a perturbing effect.

Cellular Proliferation in the Prognosis of Intermediate Grade Mast Cell Tumour in Dogs

This was a retrospective study including ninety samples of dogs with a histological diagnosis of intermediate grade cutaneous mast cell tumour (MCT). The objectives of the study were to validate Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 (MCM7) as a prognostic marker in MCTs and to compare the ability of mitotic index (MI), Ki67 and MCM7 to predict outcome. The median survival for the entire population was not reached at 2099 days. The mean survival time was 1708 days. Seventy-two cases were censored after a median follow up of 1136 days and eighteen dogs died for causes related to the MCT after a median of 116 days. For each sample MI, Ki67 and MCM7 were determined. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained for each prognostic marker to evaluate the performance of the test, expressed as area under the curve, and whether the published threshold value was adequate. Kaplan-Meier and corresponding logrank test for MI, Ki67 and MCM7 as binary variables was highly significant (P<0.0001). Multivariable regression analysis of MI, Ki67 and MCM7 corrected for age and surgical margins indicated that the higher risk of dying of MCT was associated with MCM7 > 0.18 (Hazard Ration [HR] 14.7; P<0.001) followed by MI > 5 (HR 13.9; P<0.001) and Ki67 > 0.018 (HR 8.9; P<0.001). Concluding, the present study confirmed that MCM7 is an excellent prognostic marker in cutaneous MCTs being able to divide Patnaik intermediate grade tumours in two categories with different prognosis. Ki67 was equally good confirming its value as a prognostic marker in intermediate grade MCTs. The mitotic index was extremely specific, but lacked of sensitivity. Interestingly, mitotic index, Ki67 and MCM7 were independent from each other suggesting that their combination would improve their individual prognostic value.

Older Breast Cancer Survivors: Geriatric Assessment Domains Are Associated With Poor Tolerance of Treatment Adverse Effects and Predict Mortality Over 7 Years of Follow-Up

Purpose To evaluate geriatric assessment (GA) domains in relation to clinically important outcomes in older breast cancer survivors. Methods Six hundred sixty women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in four US geographic regions (Los Angeles, CA; Minnesota; North Carolina; and Rhode Island) were selected with disease stage I to IIIA, age ≥ 65 years at date of diagnosis, and permission from attending physician to contact. Data were collected over 7 years of follow-up from consenting patients' medical records, telephone interviews, physician questionnaires, and the National Death Index. Outcomes included self-reported treatment tolerance and all-cause mortality. Four GA domains were described by six individual measures, as follows: sociodemographic by adequate finances; clinical by Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and body mass index; function by number of physical function limitations; and psychosocial by the five-item Mental Health Index (MHI5) and Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS-SSS). Associations were evaluated using t tests, χ2 tests, and regression analyses. Results In multivariable regression including age and stage, three measures from two domains (clinical and psychosocial) were associated with poor treatment tolerance; these were CCI ≥ 1 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 1.18 to 5.25), MHI5 score less than 80 (OR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.15 to 4.86), and MOS-SSS score less than 80 (OR = 3.32; 95% CI, 1.44 to 7.66). Four measures representing all four GA domains predicted mortality; these were inadequate finances (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.88; CCI ≥ 1 (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.88), functional limitation (HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.93), and MHI5 score less than 80 (HR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.85). In addition, the proportion of women with these outcomes incrementally increased as the number of GA deficits increased. Conclusion This study provides longitudinal evidence that GA domains are associated with poor treatment tolerance and predict mortality at 7 years of follow-up, independent of age and stage of disease.

Incidence and predictors of atrioventricular conduction impairment after transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Atrioventricular (AV) conduction impairment is well described after surgical aortic valve replacement, but little is known in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We assessed AV conduction and need for a permanent pacemaker in patients undergoing TAVI with the Medtronic CoreValve Revalving System (MCRS) or the Edwards Sapien Valve (ESV). Sixty-seven patients without pre-existing permanent pacemaker were included in the study. Forty-one patients (61%) and 26 patients (39%) underwent successful TAVI with the MCRS and ESV, respectively. Complete AV block occurred in 15 patients (22%), second-degree AV block in 4 (6%), and new left bundle branch block in 15 (22%), respectively. A permanent pacemaker was implanted in 23 patients (34%). Overall PR interval and QRS width increased significantly after the procedure (p <0.001 for the 2 comparisons). Implantation of the MCRS compared to the ESV resulted in a trend toward a higher rate of new left bundle branch block and complete AV block (29% vs 12%, p = 0.09 for the 2 comparisons). During follow-up, complete AV block resolved in 64% of patients. In multivariable regression analysis pre-existing right bundle branch block was the only independent predictor of complete AV block after TAVI (relative risk 7.3, 95% confidence interval 2.4 to 22.2). In conclusion, TAVI is associated with impairment of AV conduction in a considerable portion of patients, patients with pre-existing right bundle branch block are at increased risk of complete AV block, and complete AV block resolves over time in most patients.

Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Safety of endovascular treatment beyond the 6-h time window in 205 patients

Background and purpose Intra-arterial treatment (IAT) is effective when performed within 6 h of symptom onset in selected stroke patients (‘T < 6H’). Its safety and efficacy is unclear when the patient has had symptoms for more than 6 h (‘T > 6H’) or for an unknown time (unclear-onset stroke, UOS), or woke up with a stroke (wake-up stroke, WUS). In this study we compared the safety of IAT in these four patient groups. Methods Eight-hundred and fifty-nine patients treated with IAT were enrolled. The main outcome parameters were clinical outcome [excellent: modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0 or 1; or favorable: mRS 0–2] or mortality 3 months after treatment. Further outcome parameters were the rates of vessel recanalization, and cerebral and systemic hemorrhage. Results Six-hundred and fifty-four patients were treated before (T < 6H) and 205 after 6 h or an unknown time (128 T > 6H, 55 WUS and 22 UOS). NIHSS scores were higher in UOS patients than in T < 6H patients, vertebrobasilar occlusion was more common in T > 6H and UOS patients, and middle cerebral artery occlusions less common in T > 6H than in T < 6H patients. Other baseline characteristics were similar. There was no significant difference in clinical outcome and the rate of hemorrhage in multivariable regression analysis. Conclusions Clinical outcome of our four groups of patients was similar with no increase of hemorrhage rates in patients treated after awakening, after an unknown time or more than 6 h. Our preliminary data suggest that treatment of such patients may be performed safely. If confirmed in randomized trials, this would have major clinical implications.

Adolescent survivors of childhood cancer: are they vulnerable for psychological distress?

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to (i) evaluate psychological distress in adolescent survivors of childhood cancer and compare them to siblings and a norm population; (ii) compare the severity of distress of distressed survivors and siblings with that of psychotherapy patients; and (iii) determine risk factors for psychological distress in survivors. METHODS: We sent a questionnaire to all childhood cancer survivors aged <16 years when diagnosed, who had survived ≥5 years and were aged 16-19 years at the time of study. Our control groups were same-aged siblings, a norm population, and psychotherapy patients. Psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18) assessing somatization, depression, anxiety, and a global severity index (GSI). Participants with a T-score ≥57 were defined as distressed. We used logistic regression to determine risk factors. RESULTS: We evaluated the BSI-18 in 407 survivors and 102 siblings. Fifty-two survivors (13%) and 11 siblings (11%) had scores above the distress threshold (T ≥ 57). Distressed survivors scored significantly higher in somatization (p = 0.027) and GSI (p = 0.016) than distressed siblings, and also scored higher in somatization (p ≤ 0.001) and anxiety (p = 0.002) than psychotherapy patients. In the multivariable regression, psychological distress was associated with female sex, self-reported late effects, and low perceived parental support. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of survivors did not report psychological distress. However, the severity of distress of distressed survivors exceeded that of distressed siblings and psychotherapy patients. Systematic psychological follow-up can help to identify survivors at risk and support them during the challenging period of adolescence. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incidence of severe reproductive tract complications associated with diagnosed genital chlamydial infection: the Uppsala Women's Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe complications associated with genital chlamydia infection in the general female population. METHODS: The Uppsala Women's Cohort Study was a retrospective population based cohort study in Sweden, linking laboratory, hospital, and population registers. We estimated the cumulative incidence of hospital diagnosed pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility, and used multivariable regression models to estimate hazard ratios according to screening status. RESULTS: We analysed complete data from 43 715 women in Uppsala aged 15-24 years between January 1985 and December 1989. Follow up until the end of 1999 included 709 000 woman years and 3025 events. The cumulative incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease by age 35 years was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7% to 4.0%) overall: 5.6% (4.7% to 6.7%) in women who ever tested positive for chlamydia, 4.0% (3.7% to 4.4%) in those with negative tests, and 2.9% (2.7% to 3.2%) in those who were never screened. The corresponding figures were: for ectopic pregnancy, 2.3% (2.2% to 2.5%) overall, 2.7% (2.1% to 3.5%), 2.0% (1.8% to 2.3%), and 1.9% (1.7% to 2.1%); and for infertility, 4.1% (3.9% to 4.3%) overall, 6.7% (5.7% to 7.9%), 4.7% (4.4% to 5.1%), and 3.1% (2.8% to 3.3%). Low educational attainment was strongly associated with the development of all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of severe chlamydia associated complications estimated from ours, and other population based studies, was lower than expected. Studies that incorporate data about pelvic inflammatory disease diagnosed in primary care and behavioural risk factors would further improve our understanding of the natural history of chlamydia. Our results provide reassurance for patients, but mean that the benefits of chlamydia screening programmes might have been overestimated.

Prediction of hypertensive crisis based on average, variability and approximate entropy of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring

Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.

High-molecular weight adiponectin is independently associated with the extent of coronary artery disease in men

OBJECTIVE: Adiponectin has anti-atherogenic properties and low circulating adiponectin has been linked to coronary atherosclerosis. Yet, there is considerable evidence that the high-molecular weight (HMW) complex of adiponectin is the major active form of this adipokine. We therefore investigated whether HMW adiponectin is associated with the extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) in men. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Associations among CAD, HMW adiponectin and the HMW/total-adiponectin ratio were assessed in 240 male patients undergoing elective coronary angiography. Total adiponectin and HMW adiponectin was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and serum levels were correlated with defined coronary scores and established cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: We found significant inverse correlations between angiographic scores and HMW adiponectin [Extent Score (ES): r=-0.39; Gensini Score (GS): r=-0.35; and Severity Score (SS): r=-0.40, all P<0.001], and the HMW/total-adiponectin ratio (ES: r=-0.49; GS: r=-0.46; SS: r=-0.46; all P<0.001). Multivariable regression analyses revealed that HMW adiponectin and the HMW/total-adiponectin ratio were significantly associated with the extent of CAD (both P<0.001). ROC analyses demonstrated that the predictive value of HMW adiponectin and the HMW/total-adiponectin ratio for the extent of coronary atherosclerosis significantly exceeded that of total adiponectin (P<0.001, P=0.010, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: HMW adiponectin and the HMW/total-adiponectin ratio inversely correlate with the extent of CAD. HMW adiponectin in particular seems to be a better marker for CAD extent than total adiponectin.

Statins are associated with decreased mortality in abdominal, but not in thoracic aortic aneurysm patients undergoing endovascular repair: propensity score-adjusted analysis

BACKGROUND: Purpose of this study was to compare the correlation of statin use with long-term mortality in patients with abdominal (AAA) and thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared long-term survival of 731 AAA and 59 TAA patients undergoing elective endovascular repair (EVAR). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared by the log-rank method. Propensity score-adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine independent associations of statin use on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: Statin use was associated with decreased long-term mortality in AAA patients in bivariate and multivariable regression analysis, in which the effect of propensity to receive a statin was considered (adjusted HR: .613, 95%-CI: .379- .993, p = .047) whereas mortality of TAA patients was not associated with use of statins (adjusted HR: 1.795, 95%-CI: .147 -21.942, p = .647). CONCLUSIONS: Use of statins is an independent predictor of decreased mortality after elective EVAR in AAA, but not in TAA patients. These findings indirectly support the concept of a distinct pathogenesis of AAA and TAA.