Two estimates concerning asymptotics of the minimizations of a Ginzburg-Landau functional

We prove two asymptotical estimates for minimizers of a Ginzburg-Landau functional of the form integral(Omega) [1/2 \del u\(2) + 1/4 epsilon(2) (1 - \u\(2))(2) W (x)] dx.

Ramp and constant power trials produce equivalent critical power estimates

The standard critical power test protocol on the cycle prescribes a series of trials to exhaustion, each at a different but constant power setting. Recently the protocol has been modified and applied to a series of trials to exhaustion each at a different ramp incremental rate. This study was undertaken to compare critical power and anaerobic work capacity estimates in the same group of subjects when derived from the two protocols. Ten male subjects of mixed athletic ability cycled to exhaustion on eight occasions in randomized order over a 3-wk period. Four trials were performed at differing constant power settings and four trials on differing ramp incremental rates. Both critical power and anaerobic work capacity were estimated for each subject by curve fitting of the ramp model and of three versions of the constant power model. After adjusting for inter-subject variability, no significant differences were detected between critical power estimates or between anaerobic work capacity estimates from any model formulation or from the two protocols. It is concluded that both the ramp and constant power protocols produce equivalent estimates for critical power and anaerobic work capacity.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Estimates of Interethnic Admixture in the Brazilian Population Using a Panel of 24 X-Linked Insertion/Deletion Markers

Objectives. In this study, we aimed to identify ancestry informative haplotypes and make interethnic admixture estimates using X-chromosome markers. Methods. A significant sample (461 individuals) of European, African, and Native American populations was analyzed, and four linkage groups were identified. The data obtained were used to describe the ancestral contribution of populations from four different geographical regions of Brazil (745 individuals). Results. The global interethnic admixture estimates of the four mixed populations under investigation were calculated applying all the 24 insertion/deletion (INDEL) markers. In the North region, a larger Native Americans ancestry was observed (42%). The Northeast and Southeast regions had smaller Native American contribution (27% in both of them). In the South region, there was a large European contribution (46%). Conclusions. The estimates obtained are compatible with expectations for a colonization model with biased admixture between European men (one X chromosome) and Native American and African women (two X chromosomes), so the 24 X-INDEL panel described here can be a useful to make admixture interethnic estimates in Brazilian populations. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 22:849-852,2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Estimates of the real structured radius of stability of linear dynamic systems

A question is examined as to estimates of the norms of perturbations of a linear stable dynamic system, under which the perturbed system remains stable in a situation R:here a perturbation has a fixed structure.

Molluscan stable isotope temperature estimates of the southwestern Ross Sea during the early oligocene and early miocene, CRP-2/2A and CRP-3, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica

Stable isotope analyses of marine bivalve growth increment samples have been used to estimate early Oligocene (29.4 - 31.2) Ma and early Miocene (24.0 Ma) seafloor palaeotemperatures from the southwestern continental margin of the Ross Sea. Measured δ18O values average +2.5‰ in the early Miocene and range between +1.26 to +3.24‰ in the early Oligocene. The results show that palaeoceanographic conditions in McMurdo Sound during the mid-Cenozoic were significantly different from those of today. The minimum estimated spring through late summer seasonal temperature range was 3°C during the early Miocene and between 1 and 5°C during the early Oligocene. This compares to the equivalent modern day range of

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

Reconciling value estimates from the discounted cash flow model and the residual income model

This paper examines why practitioners and researchers get different estimates of equity value when they use a discounted cash flow (CF) model versus a residual income (RI) model. Both models are derived from the same underlying assumption -- that price is the present value of expected future net dividends discounted at the cost of equity capital -- but in practice and in research they frequently yield different estimates. We argue that the research literature devoted to comparing the accuracy of these two models is misguided; properly implemented, both models yield identical valuations for all firms in all years. We identify how prior research has applied inconsistent assumptions to the two models and show how these seemingly small errors cause surprisingly large differences in the value estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003