A Note on Bayesian Estimation for the Negative-Binomial Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F15.

Evaluation of Gaseous Fluid Dispersion Through Packed Bed Using Radiotracers Technique

In this study, it was developed a methodology for the determination of the dispersion of a gaseous tracer in porous media using the radiotracer technique. In order to evaluate several porous media, a cylindrical filter was constructed in PVC and connected to a system with constant flow. Inside this unit silica crystals (16-20) mesh was used as porous media and CH3Br (Methyl Bromide) marked with 82Br was used as radiotracer. An instantaneous pulse of tracer was applied in the system entrance and registered by two NaI (3x3)” scintillation detectors located one before and the other after the filter. The curves produced by the radioactive cloud and recorded by the detector were analyzed statistically using the weighted moment method. The mathematical model one considered as great dispersion of tracer was used to evaluate the flow conditions inside the filter system. The results show us that the weight moment method associated with radiotracer techniques is useful to evaluated an industrial filter and allows to measure the residence time distribution, τ, and the axial dispersion, DAB, gas in a porous medium.

Employment of the Technique of Radiotracers for Analysis of Industrial Filters

The main aim of this work is to develop a methodology to evaluate the characteristics of porous media in filter using the radio-tracing technique. To do this, an experimental prototype filter made up of an acrylic cylinder, vertically mounted and supported on the lower side by a controlled leaking valve was developed. Two filters (spheres of acrylic and silica crystals) were used to check the movement of the water through the porous media using 123I in its MIBG (iodine-123-meta-iodo benzyl-guanidine) form. Further up the filter an instantaneous injection of the substance makes it possible to see the passage of radioactive clouds through the two scintillatory detectors NaI (2x2)” positioned before and immediately after the cylinder with the filtering element (porous media). The are caused by the detectors on the passage of the radioactive cloud are analyzed through statistical functions using the weighted moment method which makes it possible to calculate the Residence-Time (the amount of time the tracer takes to thoroughly pass through the filter) per the equation of dispersion in tubular flow and the one-directional flow of the radiotracer in the porous media.

Wind wave prediction in the Caspian Sea

In this thesis, wind wave prediction and analysis in the Southern Caspian Sea are surveyed. Because of very much importance and application of this matter in reducing vital and financial damages or marine activities, such as monitoring marine pollution, designing marine structure, shipping, fishing, offshore industry, tourism and etc, gave attention by some marine activities. In this study are used the Caspian Sea topography data that are extracted from the Caspian Sea Hydrography map of Iran Armed Forces Geographical Organization and the I 0 meter wind field data that are extracted from the transmitted GTS synoptic data of regional centers to Forecasting Center of Iran Meteorological Organization for wave prediction and is used the 20012 wave are recorded by the oil company's buoy that was located at distance 28 Kilometers from Neka shore for wave analysis. The results of this research are as follows: - Because of disagreement between the prediction results of SMB method in the Caspian sea and wave data of the Anzali and Neka buoys. The SMB method isn't able to Predict wave characteristics in the Southern Caspian Sea. - Because of good relativity agreement between the WAM model output in the Caspian Sea and wave data of the Anzali buoy. The WAM model is able to predict wave characteristics in the southern Caspian Sea with high relativity accuracy. The extreme wave height distribution function for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea wave data is obtained by determining free parameters of Poisson-Gumbel function through moment method. These parameters are as below: A=2.41, B=0.33. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by above function with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %35. The 100-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant height wave is about 4.97 meter. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by statistical model of peak over threshold with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %2.28. The parametric relation for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea frequency spectra is obtained by determining free parameters of the Strekalov, Massel and Krylov etal_ multipeak spectra through mathematical method. These parameters are as below: A = 2.9 B=26.26, C=0.0016 m=0.19 and n=3.69. The maximum relative error between calculated free parameters of the Southern Caspian Sea multipeak spectrum with the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum by Massel and Strekalov on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea is about 36.1 % in spectrum energetic part and is about 74M% in spectrum high frequency part. The peak over threshold waverose of the Southern Caspian Sea shows that maximum occurrence probability of wave height is relevant to waves with 2-2.5 meters wave fhe error sources in the statistical analysis are mainly due to: l) the missing wave data in 2 years duration through battery discharge of Neka buoy. 2) the deportation %15 of significant height annual mean in single year than long period average value that is caused by lack of adequate measurement on oceanic waves, and the error sources in the spectral analysis are mainly due to above- mentioned items and low accurate of the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea.

Harringtonian virtue: Harrington, Machiavelli, and the method of the 'Moment'

This article presents a reinterpretation of James Harrington's writings. It takes issue with J. G. A. Pocock's reading, which treats him as importing into England a Machiavellian ‘language of political thought’. This reading is the basis of Pocock's stress on the republicanism of eighteenth-century opposition values. Harrington's writings were in fact a most implausible channel for such ideas. His outlook owed much to Stoicism. Unlike the Florentine, he admired the contemplative life; was sympathetic to commerce; and was relaxed about the threat of ‘corruption’ (a concept that he did not understand). These views can be associated with his apparent aims: the preservation of a national church with a salaried but politically impotent clergy; and the restoration of the royalist gentry to a leading role in English politics. Pocock's hypothesis is shown to be conditioned by his method; its weaknesses reflect some difficulties inherent in the notion of ‘languages of thought’.

The nuclear electric quadrupole moment of hafnium from the molecular method

The molecular method is used to obtain nuclear electric quadrupole moment (NQM) values for hafnium through electric field gradients (EFGs) at this nucleus in HfO and HfS. Dirac-Coulomb calculations with the Coupled Cluster approach, DC-CCSD (T) and DC-CCSD-T, were carried out to achieve the most accurate estimates of these EFGs. Higher order corrections are also added. Hence, the most reliable values for 177Hf and 179Hf determined here are 3319(33) and 3750(37) mbarn, respectively, in nice accordance with the best currently accepted NQMs for this element. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stresses in reinforced nozzle-cylinder attachments under external moment loadings analyzed by the finite-element method : a parameter study /

"ORNL/NUREG-52."

Sensorless synchronization method for thin-film direct optical broadband monitoring system

Optical monitoring systems are necessary to manufacture multilayer thin-film optical filters with low tolerance on spectrum specification. Furthermore, to have better accuracy on the measurement of film thickness, direct monitoring is a must. Direct monitoring implies acquiring spectrum data from the optical component undergoing the film deposition itself, in real time. In making film depositions on surfaces of optical components, the high vacuum evaporator chamber is the most popular equipment. Inside the evaporator, at the top of the chamber, there is a metallic support with several holes where the optical components are assembled. This metallic support has rotary motion to promote film homogenization. To acquire a measurement of the spectrum of the film in deposition, it is necessary to pass a light beam through a glass witness undergoing the film deposition process, and collect a sample of the light beam using a spectrometer. As both the light beam and the light collector are stationary, a synchronization system is required to identify the moment at which the optical component passes through the light beam.

Topliss method in the optimization of salicylic acid derivatives as potential antimycobacterial agents

The Topliss method was used to guide a synthetic path in support of drug discovery efforts toward the identification of potent antimycobacterial agents. Salicylic acid and its derivatives, p-chloro, p-methoxy, and m-chlorosalicylic acid, exemplify a series of synthetic compounds whose minimum inhibitory concentrations for a strain of Mycobacterium were determined and compared to those of the reference drug, p-aminosalicylic acid. Several physicochemical descriptors (including Hammett`s sigma constant, ionization constant, dipole moment, Hansch constant, calculated partition coefficient, Sterimol-L and -B-4 and molecular volume) were considered to elucidate structure-activity relationships. Molecular electrostatic potential and molecular dipole moment maps were also calculated using the AM1 semi-empirical method. Among the new derivatives, m-chlorosalicylic acid showed the lowest minimum inhibitory concentration. The overall results suggest that both physicochemical properties and electronic features may influence the biological activity of this series of antimycobacterial agents and thus should be considered in designing new p-aminosalicylic acid analogs.

Prediction of carbon monoxide in fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide is the chief killer in fires. Dangerous levels of CO can occur when reacting combustion gases are quenched by heat transfer, or by mixing of the fire plume in a cooled under- or overventilated upper layer. In this paper, carbon monoxide predictions for enclosure fires are modeled by the conditional moment closure (CMC) method and are compared with laboratory data. The modeled fire situation is a buoyant, turbulent, diffusion flame burning under a hood. The fire plume entrains fresh air, and the postflame gases are cooled considerably under the hood by conduction and radiation, emulating conditions which occur in enclosure fires and lead to the freezing of CO burnout. Predictions of CO in the cooled layer are presented in the context of a complete computational fluid dynamics solution of velocity, temperature, and major species concentrations. A range of underhood equivalence ratios, from rich to lean, are investigated. The CMC method predicts CO in very good agreement with data. In particular, CMC is able to correctly predict CO concentrations in lean cooled gases, showing its capability in conditions where reaction rates change considerably.

Modelling of species in hood fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide, the chief killer in fires, and other species are modelled for a series of enclosure fires. The conditions emulate building fires where CO is formed in the rich, turbulent, nonpremixed flame and is transported frozen to lean mixtures by the ceiling jet which is cooled by radiation and dilution. Conditional moment closure modelling is used and computational domain minimisation criteria are developed which reduce the computational cost of this method. The predictions give good agreement for CO and other species in the lean, quenched-gas stream, holding promise that this method may provide a practical means of modelling real, three-dimensional fire situations. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical schemes of diffusion asymptotics and moment closures for kinetic equations

We investigate different models that are intended to describe the small mean free path regime of a kinetic equation, a particular attention being paid to the moment closure by entropy minimization. We introduce a specific asymptotic-induced numerical strategy which is able to treat the stiff terms of the asymptotic diffusive regime. We evaluate on numerics the performances of the method and the abilities of the reduced models to capture the main features of the full kinetic equation.

Muscle moment-arms: a key element in muscle-force estimation.

A clear and rigorous definition of muscle moment-arms in the context of musculoskeletal systems modelling is presented, using classical mechanics and screw theory. The definition provides an alternative to the tendon excursion method, which can lead to incorrect moment-arms if used inappropriately due to its dependency on the choice of joint coordinates. The definition of moment-arms, and the presented construction method, apply to musculoskeletal models in which the bones are modelled as rigid bodies, the joints are modelled as ideal mechanical joints and the muscles are modelled as massless, frictionless cables wrapping over the bony protrusions, approximated using geometric surfaces. In this context, the definition is independent of any coordinate choice. It is then used to solve a muscle-force estimation problem for a simple 2D conceptual model and compared with an incorrect application of the tendon excursion method. The relative errors between the two solutions vary between 0% and 100%.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

Thermal and air conditions inside animal facilities change during the day due to the influence of the external environment. For statistical and geostatistical analyses to be representative, a large number of points spatially distributed in the facility area must be monitored. This work suggests that the time variation of environmental variables of interest for animal production, monitored within animal facility, can be modeled accurately from discrete-time records. The aim of this study was to develop a numerical method to correct the temporal variations of these environmental variables, transforming the data so that such observations are independent of the time spent during the measurement. The proposed method approached values recorded with time delays to those expected at the exact moment of interest, if the data were measured simultaneously at the moment at all points distributed spatially. The correction model for numerical environmental variables was validated for environmental air temperature parameter, and the values corrected by the method did not differ by Tukey's test at 5% significance of real values recorded by data loggers.

Drumming toward communitas : a case study of facilitated recreational music making and the Arthurian method

The phenomenon of communitas has been described as a moment 'in and out of time' in which a collective of individuals may be experienced by one as equal and individuated in an environment stripped of structural attributes (Turner, 1 969). In these moments, emotional bonds form and an experience of perceived 'oneness' and synergy may be described. As a result of the perceived value of these experiences, it has been suggested by Sharpe (2005) that more clearly understanding how this phenomenon may be purposefully facilitated would be beneficial for leisure service providers. Consequently, the purpose of this research endeavor was to examine the ways in which a particular leisure service provider systematically employs specific methods and sets specific parameters with the intention of guiding participants toward experiences associated with communitas or "shared spirit" as described by the organization. A qualitative case study taking a phenomenological approach was employed in order to capture the depth and complexity of both the phenomenon and the purposefiil negotiation of experiences in guiding participants toward this phenomenon. The means through which these experiences were intentionally facilitated was recreational music making in a group drumming context. As such, an organization which employs specific methods of rhythm circle facilitation as well as trains other facilitators all over the world was chosen purposely for their recognition as the most respectable and credible in this field. The specific facilitator was chosen based on high recommendation by the organization due to her level of experience and expertise. Two rhythm circles were held, and participants were chosen randomly by the facilitator. Data was collected through observation in the first circle and participant- observation in the second, as well as through focus groups with circle participants. Interviews with the facilitator were held both initially to gain broad understanding of concepts and phenomenon as well as after each circle to reflect on each circle specifically. Data was read repeatedly to drawn out patterns which emerged and were coded and organized accordingly. It was found that this specific process or system of implementation lead to experiences associated with communitas by participants. In order to more clearly understand this process and the ways in which experiences associated with communitas manifest as a result of deliberate facilitator actions, these objective facilitator actions were plotted along a continuum relating to subjective participant experiences. These findings were then linked to the literature with regards to specific characteristics of communitas. In so doing, the intentional manifestation of these experiences may be more clearly understood for ftiture facilitators in many contexts. Beyond this, findings summarized important considerations with regards to specific technical and communication competencies which were found to be essential to fostering these experiences for participants within each group. Findings surrounding the maintenance of a fluid negotiation of certain transition points within a group rhythm event overall were also highlighted, and this fluidity was found to be essential to the experience of absorption and engagement in the activity and experience. Emergent themes of structure, control, and consciousness have been presented as they manifested and were found to affect experiences within this study. Discussions surrounding the ethics and authenticity of these particular methods and their implementation has also been generated throughout. In conclusion, there was a breadth as well as depth of knowledge found in unpacking this complex process of guiding individuals toward experiences associated with communitas. The implications of these findings contribute in broadening the current theoretical as well as practical understanding as to how certain intentional parameters may be set and methods employed which may lead to experiences of communitas, and as well contribute a greater knowledge to conceptualizing the manifestation of these experiences when broken down.