Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Effect of phytoplankton size classes on bio-optical properties of phytoplankton in the Western Iberian coast: Application of models

Chlorophyll-a satellite products are routinely used in oceanography, providing a synoptic and global view of phytoplankton abundance. However, these products lack information on the community structure of the phytoplankton, which is crucial for ecological modelling and ecosystem studies. To assess the usefulness of existing methods to differentiate phytoplankton functional types (PFT) or phytoplankton size classes from satellite data, in-situ phytoplankton samples collected in the Western Iberian coast, on the North-East Atlantic, were analysed for pigments and absorption spectra. Water samples were collected in five different locations, four of which were located near the shore and another in an open-ocean, seamount region. Three different modelling approaches for deriving phytoplankton size classes were applied to the in situ data. Approaches tested provide phytoplankton size class information based on the input of pigments data (Brewin et al., 2010), absorption spectra data (Ciotti et al., 2002) or both (Uitz et al., 2008). Following Uitz et al. (2008), results revealed high variability in microphytoplankton chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficients, ranging from 0.01 to 0.09 m2 (mg chl)− 1 between 400 and 500 nm. This spectral analysis suggested, in one of the regions, the existence of small cells (< 20 μm) in the fraction of phytoplankton presumed to be microphytoplankton (based on diagnostic pigments). Ciotti et al. (2002) approach yielded the highest differences between modelled and measured absorption spectra for the locations where samples had high variability in community structure and cell size. The Brewin et al. (2010) pigment-based model was adjusted and a set of model coefficients are presented and recommended for future studies in offshore water of the Western Iberian coast.

Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Recovery of photosynthesis parameters fromin situprofiles of phytoplankton production

We examine a model of the rate of phytoplankton production in the ocean and its dependence on depth. The model is analysed as a function of photosynthesis parameters and it is shown that: (i) production profiles with depth are determined uniquely by the parameter values; (ii) daily water column production is not uniquely determined by the parameter values; (iii) a unique combination of parameters exists for which the model best fits a measured production profile. An inverse procedure is developed to recover photosynthesis parameters from measured profiles of primary production, and its performance tested by application to profiles of primary production collected at the Hawaii Ocean Time Series. For each profile tested, the method is successful in recovery of the photosynthesis parameters. The method can be applied to the estimation of photosynthesis parameters from data on in situ production profiles, which have been collected globally for more than half a century, thereby augmenting the world archive of these parameters for application in ecosystem modelling and estimation of primary production from remotely sensed data.

Modelling fixed plant and algal dynamics in rivers: an application to the River Frome

The development of eutrophication in river systems is poorly understood given the complex relationship between fixed plants, algae, hydrodynamics, water chemistry and solar radiation. However there is a pressing need to understand the relationship between the ecological status of rivers and the controlling environmental factors to help the reasoned implementation of the Water Framework Directive and Catchment Sensitive Farming in the UK. This research aims to create a dynamic, process-based, mathematical in-stream model to simulate the growth and competition of different vegetation types (macrophytes, phytoplankton and benthic algae) in rivers. The model, applied to the River Frome (Dorset, UK), captured well the seasonality of simulated vegetation types (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm). Macrophyte results showed that local knowledge is important for explaining unusual changes in biomass. Fixed algae simulations indicated the need for the more detailed representation of various herbivorous grazer groups, however this would increase the model complexity, the number of model parameters and the required observation data to better define the model. The model results also highlighted that simulating only phytoplankton is insufficient in river systems, because the majority of the suspended algae have benthic origin in short retention time rivers. Therefore, there is a need for modelling tools that link the benthic and free-floating habitats.

The phenology of phytoplankton blooms: ecosystems indicators from remote sensing

Remote sensing offers many advantages in the development of ecosystem indicators for the pelagic zone of the ocean. Particularly suitable in this context are the indicators arising from time series that can be constructed from remotely sensed data. For example, using ocean-colour radiometry, the phenology of phytoplankton blooms can be assessed. Metrics defined in this way show promise as informative indicators for the entire pelagic ecosystem. A simple phytoplankton–substrate model, with forcing dependent on latitude and day number is used to explore the qualitative features of bloom phenology for comparison with the results observed in a suite of 10-year time series of chlorophyll concentration, as assessed by remote sensing, from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. The model reveals features of the dynamics that might otherwise have been overlooked in evaluation of the observational data.

Nutrient-limited toxin production and the dynamics of two phytoplankton in culture media: a mathematical model

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple mathematical model consisting of four variables, viz., nutrient concentration, toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP), non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), and toxin concentration. Limitation in the concentration of the extracellular nutrient has been incorporated as an environmental stress condition for the plankton population, and the liberation of toxic chemicals has been described by a monotonic function of extracellular nutrient. The model is analyzed and simulated to reproduce the experimental findings of Graneli and Johansson [Graneli, E., Johansson, N., 2003. Increase in the production of allelopathic Prymnesium parvum cells grown under N- or P-deficient conditions. Harmful Algae 2, 135–145]. The robustness of the numerical experiments are tested by a formal parameter sensitivity analysis. As the first theoretical model consistent with the experiment of Graneli and Johansson (2003), our results demonstrate that, when nutrient-deficient conditions are favorable for the TPP population to release toxic chemicals, the TPP species control the bloom of other phytoplankton species which are non-toxic. Consistent with the observations made by Graneli and Johansson (2003), our model overcomes the limitation of not incorporating the effect of nutrient-limited toxic production in several other models developed on plankton dynamics.

Phytoplankton–zooplankton dynamics in the ‘presence’ or ‘absence’ of toxic phytoplankton

The inhibitory effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) on zooplankton modulate the dynamics of marine plankton. In this article, we employ simple mathematical models to compare theoretically the dynamics of phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in situations where the TPP are present with those where TPP are absent. We consider two sets of three-component interaction models: one that does not include the effect of TPP and the other that does. The negative effects of TPP on zooplankton is described by a non-linear interaction term. Extensive theoretical analyses of the models have been performed to understand the qualitative behaviour of the model systems around every possible equilibria. The results of local-stability analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that the two model-systems differ qualitatively with regard to oscillations and stability. The model system that does not include TPP is asymptotically stable around the coexisting equilibria, whereas, the system that includes TPP oscillates for a range of parametric values associated with toxin-inhibition rate and competition coefficients. Our analysis suggests that the qualitative dynamics of the plankton–zooplankton interactions are very likely to alter due to the presence of TPP species, and therefore the effects of TPP should be considered carefully while modelling plankton dynamics.

Particulate and phytoplankton absorption during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XXVI/3 and ANT-XXVIII/3

The euphotic depth (Zeu) is a key parameter in modelling primary production (PP) using satellite ocean colour. However, evaluations of satellite Zeu products are scarce. The objective of this paper is to investigate existing approaches and sensors to estimate Zeu from satellite and to evaluate how different Zeu products might affect the estimation of PP in the Southern Ocean (SO). Euphotic depth was derived from MODIS and SeaWiFS products of (i) surface chlorophyll-a (Zeu-Chla) and (ii) inherent optical properties (Zeu-IOP). They were compared with in situ measurements of Zeu from different regions of the SO. Both approaches and sensors are robust to retrieve Zeu, although the best results were obtained using the IOP approach and SeaWiFS data, with an average percentage of error (E) of 25.43% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.10 m (log scale). Nevertheless, differences in the spatial distribution of Zeu-Chla and Zeu-IOP for both sensors were found as large as 30% over specific regions. These differences were also observed in PP. On average, PP based on Zeu-Chla was 8% higher than PP based on Zeu-IOP, but it was up to 30% higher south of 60°S. Satellite phytoplankton absorption coefficients (aph) derived by the Quasi-Analytical Algorithm at different wavelengths were also validated and the results showed that MODIS aph are generally more robust than SeaWiFS. Thus, MODIS aph should be preferred in PP models based on aph in the SO. Further, we reinforce the importance of investigating the spatial differences between satellite products, which might not be detected by the validation with in situ measurements due to the insufficient amount and uneven distribution of the data.

Abundance and biomass of phytoplankton in the western part of the Black Sea in September 1991 during the NATO Programme Hydroblack

The samples were concentrated down to 50 cm**3 by slow decantation after storage for 20 days in a cool and dark place. The species identification was done under light microscope OLIMPUS-BS41 connected to a video-interactive image analysis system at magnification of the ocular 10X and objective - 40X. A Sedgwick-Rafter camera (1ml) was used for counting. 400 specimen were counted for each sample, while rare and large species were checked in the whole sample (Manual of phytoplankton, 2005). Species identification was mainly after Carmelo T. (1997) and Fukuyo, Y. (2000). Total phytoplankton abundance was calculated as sum of taxon-specific abundances. Total phytoplankton biomass was calculated as sum of taxon-specific biomasses. The cell biovolume was determined based on morpho-metric measurement of phytoplankton units and the corresponding geometric shapes as described in detail in (Edier, 1979).