Mean-variance Vs. full-scale optimization: broad evidence for the UK

This article investigates the performance of a model called Full-Scale Optimisation, which was presented recently and is used for financial investment advice. The investor’s preferences of expected risk and return are entered into the model, and a recommended portfolio is produced. This model is theoretically more accurate than the mainstream investment advice model, called Mean-Variance Optimization, as there are fewer assumptions made. Our investigation of the model’s performance is broader when it comes to investor preferences, and more general when it comes to investment type, as compared to previous studies. Our investigation shows that Full-Scale Optimisation is more widely applicable than earlier known.

Finite-Sample Diagnostics for Multivariate Regressions with Applications to Linear Asset Pricing Models

In this paper, we propose several finite-sample specification tests for multivariate linear regressions (MLR) with applications to asset pricing models. We focus on departures from the assumption of i.i.d. errors assumption, at univariate and multivariate levels, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian (including Student t) errors. The univariate tests studied extend existing exact procedures by allowing for unspecified parameters in the error distributions (e.g., the degrees of freedom in the case of the Student t distribution). The multivariate tests are based on properly standardized multivariate residuals to ensure invariance to MLR coefficients and error covariances. We consider tests for serial correlation, tests for multivariate GARCH and sign-type tests against general dependencies and asymmetries. The procedures proposed provide exact versions of those applied in Shanken (1990) which consist in combining univariate specification tests. Specifically, we combine tests across equations using the MC test procedure to avoid Bonferroni-type bounds. Since non-Gaussian based tests are not pivotal, we apply the “maximized MC” (MMC) test method [Dufour (2002)], where the MC p-value for the tested hypothesis (which depends on nuisance parameters) is maximized (with respect to these nuisance parameters) to control the test’s significance level. The tests proposed are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995. Our empirical results reveal the following. Whereas univariate exact tests indicate significant serial correlation, asymmetries and GARCH in some equations, such effects are much less prevalent once error cross-equation covariances are accounted for. In addition, significant departures from the i.i.d. hypothesis are less evident once we allow for non-Gaussian errors.

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.

Understanding portfolio efficiency with conditioning information

We show that unconditionally efficient returns do not achieve the maximum unconditionalSharpe ratio, neither display zero unconditional Jensen s alphas, when returns arepredictable. Next, we define a new type of efficient returns that is characterized by thoseunconditional properties. We also study a different type of efficient returns that is rationalizedby standard mean-variance preferences and motivates new Sharpe ratios and Jensen salphas. We revisit the testable implications of asset pricing models from the perspective ofthe three sets of efficient returns. We also revisit the empirical evidence on the conditionalvariants of the CAPM and the Fama-French model from a portfolio perspective.

A synthetic control chart for monitoring the process mean and variance

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to present a synthetic chart based on the non-central chi-square statistic that is operationally simpler and more effective than the joint X̄ and R chart in detecting assignable cause(s). This chart will assist in identifying which (mean or variance) changed due to the occurrence of the assignable causes. Design/methodology/approach - The approach used is based on the non-central chi-square statistic and the steady-state average run length (ARL) of the developed chart is evaluated using a Markov chain model. Findings - The proposed chart always detects process disturbances faster than the joint X̄ and R charts. The developed chart can monitor the process instead of looking at two charts separately. Originality/value - The most important advantage of using the proposed chart is that practitioners can monitor the process by looking at only one chart instead of looking at two charts separately. © Emerald Group Publishing Limted.

Single period Markowitz portfolio selection, performance gauging and duality: a variation on Luenberger's shortage function

Markowitz portfolio theory (1952) has induced research into the efficiency of portfolio management. This paper studies existing nonparametric efficiency measurement approaches for single period portfolio selection from a theoretical perspective and generalises currently used efficiency measures into the full mean-variance space. Therefore, we introduce the efficiency improvement possibility function (a variation on the shortage function), study its axiomatic properties in the context of Markowitz efficient frontier, and establish a link to the indirect mean-variance utility function. This framework allows distinguishing between portfolio efficiency and allocative efficiency. Furthermore, it permits retrieving information about the revealed risk aversion of investors. The efficiency improvement possibility function thus provides a more general framework for gauging the efficiency of portfolio management using nonparametric frontier envelopment methods based on quadratic optimisation.

Determinants of school efficiency : The case of primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland

Purpose The purpose of this paper is (1) to measure school technical efficiency and (2) to identify the determinants of primary school performance. Design/methodology/approach A two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) of school efficiency is conducted. At the first stage, DEA is employed to calculate an individual efficiency score for each school. At the second stage, efficiency is regressed on school characteristics and environmental variables. Findings The mean technical efficiency of schools in the State of Geneva is equal to 93%. By improving the operation of schools, 7% (100 - 93) of inputs could be saved, representing 17'744'656.2 Swiss francs in 2010. School efficiency is negatively influenced by (1) operations being held on multiple sites, (2) the proportion of disadvantaged pupils enrolled at the school and (3) the provision of special education, but positively influenced by school size (captured by the number of pupils). Practical implications Technically, the determinants of school efficiency are outside of the control of the headteachers. However, it is still possible to either boost the positive impact or curb the negative impact. Potential actions are discussed. Originality/value Unlike most similar studies, the model in this study is tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. It is therefore robust. Moreover, one explanatory variable of school efficiency (operations being held on multiple sites) is a truly original variable as it has never been tested so far.

Setting efficiency indicators for center pivots

In this study, it was discussed the efficiency criteria in each of the elements that compose a central pivot, and this analysis was applied to two sets of systems located in regions of Cruz Alta and Santo Augusto, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The methodology used combines water and energy assessment through an indicator called Normalized Specific Consumption in Irrigation (C ENI), allowing thus a comparison between equipment and projects. The C ENI in Cruz Alta region showed 72% of the equipment above the standard (8.68 kWh mm-1 ha-1 100m-1), and in Santo Augusto region 64.28% with consumption above the standard. The mean irrigation efficiency for Cruz Alta region was 29.85%, with standard deviation of 5.41%, and for Santo Augusto region, it was 29.02%, with standard deviation of 5.15%.

Determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in southwestern Bangladesh

This paper estimates a translog stochastic production function to examine the determinants of technical efficiency of freshwater prawn farming in Bangladesh. Primary data has been collected using random sampling from 90 farmers of three villages in southwestern Bangladesh. Prawn farming displayed much variability in technical efficiency ranging from 9.50 to 99.94% with mean technical efficiency of 65%, which suggested a substantial 35% of potential output can be recovered by removing inefficiency. For a land scarce country like Bangladesh this gain could help increase income and ensure better livelihood for the farmers. Based on the translog production function specification, farmers could be made scale efficient by providing more input to produce more output. The results suggest that farmers’ education and non-farm income significantly improve efficiency whilst farmers’ training, farm distance from the water canal and involvement in fish farm associations reduces efficiency. Hence, the study proposes strategies such as less involvement in farming-related associations and raising the effective training facilities of the farmers as beneficial adjustments for reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the key policy implication of the analysis is that investment in primary education would greatly improve technical efficiency.

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

Estimating the efficiency of healthcare facilities providing HIV/AIDS treatment in Zambia:a data envelopment approach

Zambia and many other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa face a key challenge of sustaining high levels of coverage of AIDS treatment under prospects of dwindling global resources for HIV/AIDS treatment. Policy debate in HIV/AIDS is increasingly paying more focus to efficiency in the use of available resources. In this chapter, we apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate short term technical efficiency of 34 HIV/AIDS treatment facilities in Zambia. The data consists of input variables such as human resources, medical equipment, building space, drugs, medical supplies, and other materials used in providing HIV/AIDS treatment. Two main outputs namely, numbers of ART-years (Anti-Retroviral Therapy-years) and pre-ART-years are included in the model. Results show the mean technical efficiency score to be 83%, with great variability in efficiency scores across the facilities. Scale inefficiency is also shown to be significant. About half of the facilities were on the efficiency frontier. We also construct bootstrap confidence intervals around the efficiency scores.

Trois essais sur les banques et le pouvoir de marché

Cette thèse examine le rôle du pouvoir de marché dans le marché bancaire. L’emphase est mis sur la prise de risque, les économies d’échelle, l’efficacité économique du marché et la transmission des chocs. Le premier chapitre présente un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique en économie ouverte comprenant un marché bancaire en concurrence monopolistique. Suivant l’hypothèse de Krugman (1979, 1980) sur la relation entre les économies d’échelle et les exportations, les banques doivent défrayer un coût de transaction pour échanger à l’étranger qui diminue à mesure que le volume de leurs activités locales augmente. Cela incite les banques à réduire leur marge locale afin de profiter davantage du marché extérieur. Le modèle est solutionné et simulé pour divers degrés de concentration dans le marché bancaire. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que deux forces contraires, les économies d’échelle et le pouvoir de marché, s’affrontent lorsque le marché se concentre. La concentration permet aussi aux banques d’accroître leurs activités étrangères, ce qui les rend en contrepartie plus vulnérables aux chocs extérieurs. Le deuxième chapitre élabore un cadre de travail semblable, mais à l’intérieur duquel les banques font face à un risque de crédit. Celui-ci est partiellement assuré par un collatéral fourni par les entrepreneurs et peut être limité à l’aide d’un effort financier. Le modèle est solutionné et simulé pour divers degrés de concentration dans le marché bancaire. Les résultats montrent qu’un plus grand pouvoir de marché réduit la taille du marché financier et de la production à l’état stationnaire, mais incite les banques à prendre moins de risques. De plus, les économies dont le marché bancaire est fortement concentré sont moins sensibles à certains chocs puisque les marges plus élevés donnent initialement de la marge de manoeuvre aux banques en cas de chocs négatifs. Cet effet modérateur est éliminé lorsqu’il est possible pour les banques d’entrer et de sortir librement du marché. Une autre extension avec économies d’échelle montre que sous certaines conditions, un marché moyennement concentré est optimal pour l’économie. Le troisième chapitre utilise un modèle en analyse de portefeuille de type Moyenne-Variance afin de représenter une banque détenant du pouvoir de marché. Le rendement des dépôts et des actifs peut varier selon la quantité échangée, ce qui modifie le choix de portefeuille de la banque. Celle-ci tend à choisir un portefeuille dont la variance est plus faible lorsqu’elle est en mesure d’obtenir un rendement plus élevé sur un actif. Le pouvoir de marché sur les dépôts amène un résultat sembable pour un pouvoir de marché modéré, mais la variance finit par augmenter une fois un certain niveau atteint. Les résultats sont robustes pour différentes fonctions de demandes.

A eficiência técnica dos portos e terminais públicos e privados brasileiros marítimos no período de 2010 a 2014

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Determination of the median lethal concentration (LC(50)) of mycoinsecticides for the control of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The aim of this study was to determine the median lethal concentration (LC(50)) of the commercial products Boveril WP (R) (Beauveria bassiana) and Metarril WP (R) (Metarhizium anisopliae) on the larvae and pupae of the fruit Ceratitis capitata. Insects used in this study came from a laboratory colony. The evaluated product concentrations were 10.00, 15.00, 20.00 and 25.00 g/L of water, which correspond, respectively, to 5.00x10(9), 7.50x10(9), 10.00x10(9) and 12.50x10(9) viable conidia/L of water for the two products, and in the control only water was applied. Third instar larvae and pupae of C. capitata were used in this study. Results showed an overall mortality of larvae with all conidial concentrations of M. anisopliae. The LC(50) values for larvae were 2.99 and 2.97 g/L for Boveril (R) and Metarril (R), respectively, while for pupae they were 3.12 and 4.74 g/L for Boveril (R) and Metarril (R), respectively. The high pathogenicity demonstrated by lower conidial concentrations of the tested products may mean greater efficiency from both economic and environmental points of view.

Technical, allocative, cost and scale efficiencies in Bangladesh rice cultivation: A non-parametric approach

Applying programming techniques to detailed data for 406 rice farms in 21 villages, for 1997, produces inefficiency measures, which differ substantially from the results of simple yield and unit cost measures. For the Boro (dry) season, mean technical efficiency was efficiency was 56.2 per cent and 69.4 per cent, allocative efficiency was 81.3 per cent, cost efficiency was 56.2 per cent and scale efficiency 94.9 per cent. The Aman (wet) season results are similar, but a few points lower. Allocative inefficiency is due to overuse of labour, suggesting population pressure, and of fertiliser, where recommended rates may warrant revision. Second-stage regressions show that large families are more inefficient, whereas farmers with better access to input markets, and those who do less off-farm work, tend to be more efficient. The information on the sources of inter-farm performance differentials could be used by the extension agents to help inefficient farmers. There is little excuse for such sub-optimal use of survey data, which are often collected at substantial costs.