Age models of sediment cores from the continental margin of northwest Africa

Diatom abundance and species composition were quantitatively studied in two latest Quaternary (~130 ka to the Present) sequences from the continental margin of northwest Africa. Off this region, coastal upwelling is well developed under the influence of the NE trade winds. Variations in diatom abundance in these cores are inferred to represent changes caused by varying degrees of the upwelling fertility. Times of high productivity are marked by high relative frequencies of Chaetoceros, while low productivity is marked by the dominance of Aulacoseira granulata. Upwelling increased during glacial episodes (isotopic stages 2-4 and 6) relative to isotopic stages 1 and 5. During the late Holocene, primary productivity levels are similar to those for Stage 5, but in the early Holocene upwelling intensities seem to have been weaker than today. The paleoproductivity reconstruction based on the diatom record is supported by paleoproductivity estimations based on the organic carbon content of the sediments (Sarnthein et al., 1987).

Magnetic properties of two cores from the Iberian Margin

Magnetic properties of late Quaternary sediments on the SW Iberian Margin are dominated by bacterial magnetite, observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), with contributions from detrital titanomagnetite and hematite. Reactive hematite from eolian dust, together with low organic matter concentrations and the lack of sulfate reduction, lead to dissimilatory iron reduction and availability of Fe(II) for abundant magnetotactic bacteria. Magnetite grain-size proxies (kARM/k and ARM/IRM) and S-ratios (sensitive to hematite) vary on stadial/interstadial timescales, contain orbital power, and mimic planktic d18O. The detrital/biogenic magnetite ratio and hematite concentration are greater during stadials and glacial isotopic stages, reflecting increased detrital (magnetite) input during times of lowered sea level, coinciding with atmospheric conditions favoring hematitic dust supply. Magnetic susceptibility, on the other hand, has a very different response being sensitive to coarse detrital multidomain (MD) magnetite associated with ice-rafted debris (IRD). High susceptibility and/or magnetic grain size coarsening, mark Heinrich stadials (HS), particularly HS2, HS3, HS4, HS5, HS6 and HS7, as well as older Heinrich-like detrital layers, indicating the sensitivity of this region to fluctuations in the position of the polar front. Relative paleointensity (RPI) records have well-constrained age models based on planktic d18O correlation to ice-core chronologies, however, they differ from reference records (e.g. PISO) particularly in the vicinity of glacial maxima, mainly due to inefficient normalization of RPI records in intervals of enhanced detrital/eolian hematite input.

Age models, sedimentology and geochemistry from sediment cores in Drake Passage throughflow

The Drake Passage (DP) is the major geographic constriction for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and exerts a strong control on the exchange of physical, chemical, and biological properties between the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins. Resolving changes in the flow of circumpolar water masses through this gateway is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global ocean and climate variability. Here, we reconstruct changes in DP throughflow dynamics over the past 65,000 y based on grain size and geochemical properties of sediment records from the southernmost continental margin of South America. Combined with published sediment records from the Scotia Sea, we argue for a considerable total reduction of DP transport and reveal an up to ~40% decrease in flow speed along the northernmost ACC pathway entering the DP during glacial times. Superimposed on this long-term decrease are high-amplitude, millennial-scale variations, which parallel Southern Ocean and Antarctic temperature patterns. The glacial intervals of strong weakening of the ACC entering the DP imply an enhanced export of northern ACC surface and intermediate waters into the South Pacific Gyre and reduced Pacific-Atlantic exchange through the DP ("cold water route"). We conclude that changes in DP throughflow play a critical role for the global meridional overturning circulation and interbasin exchange in the Southern Ocean, most likely regulated by variations in the westerly wind field and changes in Antarctic sea ice extent.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Maximum likelihood estimation of new state space models for operational modal analysis

The modal analysis of a structural system consists on computing its vibrational modes. The experimental way to estimate these modes requires to excite the system with a measured or known input and then to measure the system output at different points using sensors. Finally, system inputs and outputs are used to compute the modes of vibration. When the system refers to large structures like buildings or bridges, the tests have to be performed in situ, so it is not possible to measure system inputs such as wind, traffic, . . .Even if a known input is applied, the procedure is usually difficult and expensive, and there are still uncontrolled disturbances acting at the time of the test. These facts led to the idea of computing the modes of vibration using only the measured vibrations and regardless of the inputs that originated them, whether they are ambient vibrations (wind, earthquakes, . . . ) or operational loads (traffic, human loading, . . . ). This procedure is usually called Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), and in general consists on to fit a mathematical model to the measured data assuming the unobserved excitations are realizations of a stationary stochastic process (usually white noise processes). Then, the modes of vibration are computed from the estimated model. The first issue investigated in this thesis is the performance of the Expectation- Maximization (EM) algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the state space model in the field of OMA. The algorithm is described in detail and it is analysed how to apply it to vibration data. After that, it is compared to another well known method, the Stochastic Subspace Identification algorithm. The maximum likelihood estimate enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view what makes it very attractive in practice, but the most remarkable property of the EM algorithm is that it can be used to address a wide range of situations in OMA. In this work, three additional state space models are proposed and estimated using the EM algorithm: • The first model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration when several tests are performed in the same structural system. Instead of analyse record by record and then compute averages, the EM algorithm is extended for the joint estimation of the proposed state space model using all the available data. • The second state space model is used to estimate the modes of vibration when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of points to be tested. In these cases it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors). Here, the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the modal parameters taking into account the data of all setups. • And last, a state space model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration in the presence of unmeasured inputs that cannot be modelled as white noise processes. In these cases, the frequency components of the inputs cannot be separated from the eigenfrequencies of the system, and spurious modes are obtained in the identification process. The idea is to measure the response of the structure corresponding to different inputs; then, it is assumed that the parameters common to all the data correspond to the structure (modes of vibration), and the parameters found in a specific test correspond to the input in that test. The problem is solved using the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm. Resumen El análisis modal de un sistema estructural consiste en calcular sus modos de vibración. Para estimar estos modos experimentalmente es preciso excitar el sistema con entradas conocidas y registrar las salidas del sistema en diferentes puntos por medio de sensores. Finalmente, los modos de vibración se calculan utilizando las entradas y salidas registradas. Cuando el sistema es una gran estructura como un puente o un edificio, los experimentos tienen que realizarse in situ, por lo que no es posible registrar entradas al sistema tales como viento, tráfico, . . . Incluso si se aplica una entrada conocida, el procedimiento suele ser complicado y caro, y todavía están presentes perturbaciones no controladas que excitan el sistema durante el test. Estos hechos han llevado a la idea de calcular los modos de vibración utilizando sólo las vibraciones registradas en la estructura y sin tener en cuenta las cargas que las originan, ya sean cargas ambientales (viento, terremotos, . . . ) o cargas de explotación (tráfico, cargas humanas, . . . ). Este procedimiento se conoce en la literatura especializada como Análisis Modal Operacional, y en general consiste en ajustar un modelo matemático a los datos registrados adoptando la hipótesis de que las excitaciones no conocidas son realizaciones de un proceso estocástico estacionario (generalmente ruido blanco). Posteriormente, los modos de vibración se calculan a partir del modelo estimado. El primer problema que se ha investigado en esta tesis es la utilización de máxima verosimilitud y el algoritmo EM (Expectation-Maximization) para la estimación del modelo espacio de los estados en el ámbito del Análisis Modal Operacional. El algoritmo se describe en detalle y también se analiza como aplicarlo cuando se dispone de datos de vibraciones de una estructura. A continuación se compara con otro método muy conocido, el método de los Subespacios. Los estimadores máximo verosímiles presentan una serie de propiedades que los hacen óptimos desde un punto de vista estadístico, pero la propiedad más destacable del algoritmo EM es que puede utilizarse para resolver un amplio abanico de situaciones que se presentan en el Análisis Modal Operacional. En este trabajo se proponen y estiman tres modelos en el espacio de los estados: • El primer modelo se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando se dispone de datos correspondientes a varios experimentos realizados en la misma estructura. En lugar de analizar registro a registro y calcular promedios, se utiliza algoritmo EM para la estimación conjunta del modelo propuesto utilizando todos los datos disponibles. • El segundo modelo en el espacio de los estados propuesto se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando el número de sensores disponibles es menor que vi Resumen el número de puntos que se quieren analizar en la estructura. En estos casos es usual realizar varios ensayos cambiando la posición de los sensores de un ensayo a otro (múltiples configuraciones de sensores). En este trabajo se utiliza el algoritmo EM para estimar los parámetros modales teniendo en cuenta los datos de todas las configuraciones. • Por último, se propone otro modelo en el espacio de los estados para estimar los modos de vibración en la presencia de entradas al sistema que no pueden modelarse como procesos estocásticos de ruido blanco. En estos casos, las frecuencias de las entradas no se pueden separar de las frecuencias del sistema y se obtienen modos espurios en la fase de identificación. La idea es registrar la respuesta de la estructura correspondiente a diferentes entradas; entonces se adopta la hipótesis de que los parámetros comunes a todos los registros corresponden a la estructura (modos de vibración), y los parámetros encontrados en un registro específico corresponden a la entrada en dicho ensayo. El problema se resuelve utilizando el modelo propuesto y el algoritmo EM.

Age models of sediment cores from the North-West African continental margin

A statistical analysis ol 15 deep sea cores in the eastern North Atlantic off NW Africa revealed the typical fluctuation pattern of distinct species proups as has been described from various parts of the world ocean. Only the "WBF-group" appears to be correlated with global climatic changes, i.e. warmer periods as the Eemian and the Atlanticum. A partly antagonistic "High Productivity group" (HPR-group) is in general not linked with global changes but times of increased fertility in the surface water and the resulting flux of organic matter reaching the bottom. The groups were extracted from cluster analysis of more than 150 surface samples (HPR-group) and a factor analysis of selected cores (WBF-group). In contrast to previous studies the observed fluctuations can not be explained by drastic changes in bottom water masses, but by the pulsation of a distinct "High Productivity Patch" in space and time. At present, this patch is located below the well known upwelling area between 22° and 12° northern latitude. It shifted to the north (up to 27 °N) during the latest glacial period ( 18 ky), indicating an equivalent shift of upwelling productivity caused by advection of nutrient rich upwelling SACW-waters, probably during most of isotopic stages 2 and 3.

(Table 1) Sr-isotope values of representative sediment samples from ODP sites at the Costa Rica margin

Two sealed borehole hydrologic observatories (CORKs) were installed in two active hydrogeochemical systems at the Costa Rica subduction zone to investigate the relationship between tectonics, fluid flow, and fluid composition. The observatories were deployed during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 205 at Site 1253, ~ 0.2 km seaward of the trench, in the upper igneous basement, and at Site 1255, ~ 0.5 km landward of the trench, in the décollement. Downhole instrumentation was designed to monitor formation fluid flow rates, composition, pressure, and temperature. The two-year records collected by this interdisciplinary effort constitute the first co-registered hydrological, chemical, and physical dataset from a subduction zone, providing critical information on the average and transient state of the subduction thrust and upper igneous basement. The continuous records at ODP Site 1253 show that the uppermost igneous basement is highly permeable hosting an average fluid flow rate of 0.3 m/yr, and indicate that the fluid sampled in the basement is a mixture between seawater (~ 50%) and a subduction zone fluid originating within the forearc (~ 50%). These results suggest that the uppermost basement serves as an efficient pathway for fluid expelled from the forearc that should be considered in models of subduction zone hydrogeology and deformation. Three transients in fluid flow rates were observed along the décollement at ODP Site 1255, two of which coincided with stepwise increases in formation pressure. These two transients are the result of aseismic slip dislocations that propagated up-dip from the seismogenic zone over the course of ~ 2 weeks terminating before reaching ODP Site 1255 and the trench. The nature and temporal behavior of strain and the associated hydrological response during these slow slip events may be an analog for the response of the seaward part of the subduction prism during or soon after large subduction zone earthquakes.

A note on maximum likelihood estimation of discrete choice models from the 1978 survey of disability and work /

"November 1982."

Compilation of organic carbon distribution and sedimentology in the surface sediments on the continental margin offshore southwestern Africa

In this study we demonstrate the relevance of lateral particle transport in nepheloid layers for organic carbon (OC) accumulation and burial across high-productive continental margins. We present geochemical data from surface sediments and suspended particles in the bottom nepheloid layer (BNL) from the most productive coastal upwelling area of the modern ocean, the Benguela upwelling system offshore southwest Africa. Interpretation of depositional patterns and comparison of downslope trends in OC content, organic matter composition, and 14C age between suspended particles and surface sediments indicate that lateral particle transport is the primary mechanism controlling supply and burial of OC. We propose that effective seaward particle transport primarily along the BNL is a key process that promotes and maintains local high sedimentation rates, ultimately causing high preservation of OC in a depocenter on the upper slope offshore Namibia. As lateral transport efficiently displaces areas of enhanced OC burial from maximum production at highly productive continental margins, vertical particle flux models do not sufficiently explain the relationship between primary production and shallow-marine OC burial. On geologic time scales, the widest distribution and strongest intensity of lateral particle transport is expected during periods of rapid sea-level change. At times in the geologic past, widespread downslope lateral transport of OC thus may have been a primary driver of enhanced OC burial at deeper continental slopes and abyssal basins.

Calibration of the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax) using data mining techniques and ecophysiological data from the Brazilian Semiarid region, for use in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models.

The semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, the Caatinga, is extremely important due to its biodiversity and endemism. Measurements of plant physiology are crucial to the calibration of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that are currently used to simulate the responses of vegetation in face of global changes. In a field work realized in an area of preserved Caatinga forest located in Petrolina, Pernambuco, measurements of carbon assimilation (in response to light and CO2) were performed on 11 individuals of Poincianella microphylla, a native species that is abundant in this region. These data were used to calibrate the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax) used in the INLAND model. The calibration techniques used were Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and data mining techniques as the Classification And Regression Tree (CART) and K-MEANS. The results were compared to the UNCALIBRATED model. It was found that simulated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) reached 72% of observed GPP when using the calibrated Vcmax values, whereas the UNCALIBRATED approach accounted for 42% of observed GPP. Thus, this work shows the benefits of calibrating DGVMs using field ecophysiological measurements, especially in areas where field data is scarce or non-existent, such as in the Caatinga

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.