A construção da confiança na América do Sul e os mecanismos de transparência militar

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Understanding Immigrants' Travel Behavior in Florida: Neighborhood Effects and Behavioral Assimilation

The goal of this study was to develop Multinomial Logit models for the mode choice behavior of immigrants, with key focuses on neighborhood effects and behavioral assimilation. The first aspect shows the relationship between social network ties and immigrants’ chosen mode of transportation, while the second aspect explores the gradual changes toward alternative mode usage with regard to immigrants’ migrating period in the United States (US). Mode choice models were developed for work, shopping, social, recreational, and other trip purposes to evaluate the impacts of various land use patterns, neighborhood typology, socioeconomic-demographic and immigrant related attributes on individuals’ travel behavior. Estimated coefficients of mode choice determinants were compared between each alternative mode (i.e., high-occupancy vehicle, public transit, and non-motorized transport) with single-occupant vehicles. The model results revealed the significant influence of neighborhood and land use variables on the usage of alternative modes among immigrants. Incorporating these indicators into the demand forecasting process will provide a better understanding of the diverse travel patterns for the unique composition of population groups in Florida.

GUIDE@HAND: Digital GPS Based Audio Guide that Brings the Past to Life

In the digital age the internet and the ICT devices changed our daily life and routines. It means we couldn't live without these services and devices anywhere (work, home, holiday, etc.). It can be experienced in the tourism sector; digital contents become key tools in the tourism of the 21st century; they will be able to adapt the traditional tourist guide methodology to the applications running on novel digital devices. Tourists belong to a new generation, an "ICT generation" using innovative tools, a new info-media to communicate. A possible direction for tourism development is to use modern ICT systems and devices. Besides participating in classical tours guided by travel guides, there is a new opportunity for individual tourists to enjoy high quality ICT based guided walks prepared on the knowledge of travel guides. The main idea of the GUIDE@HAND service is to use reusable, and create new tourism contents for an advanced mobile device, in order to give a contemporary answer to traditional systems of tourism information, by developing new tourism services based on digital contents for innovative mobile applications. The service is based on a new concept of enhancing territorial heritage and values, through knowledge, innovation, languages and multilingual solutions going along with new tourists‟ “sensitiveness”.

FILTERING TECHNIQUES APPLIED ON RAW CARRIER PHASE FOR GPS DETECTING SMALL DYNAMIC DISPLACEMENTS

This work is part of a research under construction since 2000, in which the main objective is to measure small dynamic displacements by using L1 GPS receivers. A very sensible way to detect millimetric periodic displacements is based on the Phase Residual Method (PRM). This method is based on the frequency domain analysis of the phase residuals resulted from the L1 double difference static data processing of two satellites in almost orthogonal elevation angle. In this article, it is proposed to obtain the phase residuals directly from the raw phase observable collected in a short baseline during a limited time span, in lieu of obtaining the residual data file from regular GPS processing programs which not always allow the choice of the aimed satellites. In order to improve the ability to detect millimetric oscillations, two filtering techniques are introduced. One is auto-correlation which reduces the phase noise with random time behavior. The other is the running mean to separate low frequency from the high frequency phase sources. Two trials have been carried out to verify the proposed method and filtering techniques. One simulates a 2.5 millimeter vertical antenna displacement and the second uses the GPS data collected during a bridge load test. The results have shown a good consistency to detect millimetric oscillations.

Wireless GPS-based phase-locked synchronization system for outdoor environment.

Synchronization of data coming from different sources is of high importance in biomechanics to ensure reliable analyses. This synchronization can either be performed through hardware to obtain perfect matching of data, or post-processed digitally. Hardware synchronization can be achieved using trigger cables connecting different devices in many situations; however, this is often impractical, and sometimes impossible in outdoors situations. The aim of this paper is to describe a wireless system for outdoor use, allowing synchronization of different types of - potentially embedded and moving - devices. In this system, each synchronization device is composed of: (i) a GPS receiver (used as time reference), (ii) a radio transmitter, and (iii) a microcontroller. These components are used to provide synchronized trigger signals at the desired frequency to the measurement device connected. The synchronization devices communicate wirelessly, are very lightweight, battery-operated and thus very easy to set up. They are adaptable to every measurement device equipped with either trigger input or recording channel. The accuracy of the system was validated using an oscilloscope. The mean synchronization error was found to be 0.39 μs and pulses are generated with an accuracy of <2 μs. The system provides synchronization accuracy about two orders of magnitude better than commonly used post-processing methods, and does not suffer from any drift in trigger generation.

BCN­Routing : càlcul web de rutes amb pgRouting, OpenStreetMap i OpenLayers

En aquest projecte s'ha desenvolupat una interfície web per calcular rutes a la ciutat de Barcelona. Les rutes calculades són a peu, entre un punt d'origen qualsevol i un punt d'interès turístic de la ciutat com a destí. Per això s'han extret les dades dels carrers de Barcelona d'OpenStreetMap i s'han insertat a una base de dades postgreSQL/postGIS, juntament amb una capa vectorial de punts d'interès turístic que s'ha creat amb el SIG d'escriptori qGIS. El càlcul de les rutes amb les dades de la base de dades s'ha realitzat amb l'extensió pgRouting, i la interfície web per seleccionar els punts d'origen i destí, mostrar els mapes, i mostrar les rutes resultat, s'ha desenvolupat utilitzant la llibreria OpenLayers.

Using GPS, GIS & remote sensing to understand Niagara Terroir : Pinot noir in the Four Mile Creek & St. David's Bench sub-appellations

The relationships between vine water status, soil texture, and vine size were observed in four Niagara, Ontario Pinot noir vineyards in 2008 and 2009. The vineyards were divided into water status zones using geographic information systems (GIS) software to map the seasonal mean midday leaf water potential (,P), and dormant pruning shoot weights following the 2008 season. Fruit was harvested from all sentinel vines, bulked by water status zones and made into wine. Sensory analysis included a multidimensional sorting (MDS) task and descriptive analysis (DA) of the 2008 wines. Airborne multispectral images, with a spatial resolution of 38 cm, were captured four times in 2008 and three times in 2009, with the final flights around veraison. A semi-automatic process was developed to extract NDVI from the images, and a masking procedure was identified to create a vine-only NDVI image. 2008 and 2009 were cooler and wetter than mean years, and the range of water status zones was narrow. Yield per vine, vine size, anthocyanins and phenols were the least consistent variables. Divided by water status or vine size, there were no variables with differences between zones in all four vineyards in either year. Wines were not different between water status zones in any chemical analysis, and HPLC revealed that there were no differences in individual anthocyanins or phenolic compounds between water status zones within the vineyard sites. There were some notable correlations between vineyard and grape composition variables, and spatial trends were observed to be qualitatively related for many of the variables. The MDS task revealed that wines from each vineyard were more affected by random fermentation effects than water status effects. This was confirmed by the DA; there were no differences between wines from the water status zones within vineyard sites for any attribute. Remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) correlated reasonably well with a number of grape composition variables, as well as soil type. Resampling to a lower spatial resolution did not appreciably affect the strength of correlations, and corresponded to the information contained in the masked images, while maintaining the range of values of NDVI. This study showed that in cool climates, there is the potential for using precision viticulture techniques to understand the variability in vineyards, but the variable weather presents a challenge for understanding the driving forces of that variability.

Wikiloc: software libre y APIs de Google Maps para visualizar y compartir rutas GPS

Wikiloc es un servicio web gratuito para visualizar y compartir rutas y puntos de interés GPS. Utilizando software libre y la API de Google Maps, Wikiloc hace la función de base de datos personal de localizaciones GPS. Desde cualquier acceso a Internet un usuario de GPS puede cargar sus datos GPS y al momento visualizar la ruta y waypoints con distinta cartografía de fondo, incluidos servidores de mapas externos WMS (Web Map Service) o descargarlo a Google Earth para ver en 3D. Paralelamente se muestra el perfil de altura, distancia, desniveles acumulados y las fotos o comentarios que el usuario quiera añadir

On processing GPS tracking data of car-movements in Borlänge, Sweden

The advancement of GPS technology enables GPS devices not only to be used as orientation and navigation tools, but also to track travelled routes. GPS tracking data provides essential information for a broad range of urban planning applications such as transportation routing and planning, traffic management and environmental control. This paper describes on processing the data that was collected by tracking the cars of 316 volunteers over a seven-week period. The detailed information is extracted. The processed data is further connected to the underlying road network by means of maps. Geographical maps are applied to check how the car-movements match the road network. The maps capture the complexity of the car-movements in the urban area. The results show that 90% of the trips on the plane match the road network within a tolerance.

Construção e validação de um receptor GPS para uso espacial

Global Positioning System, or simply GPS, it is a radionavigation system developed by United States for military applications, but it becames very useful for civilian using. In the last decades Brazil has developed sounding rockets and today many projects to build micro and nanosatellites has appeared. This kind of vehicles named spacecrafts or high dynamic vehicles, can use GPS for its autonome location and trajectories controls. Despite of a huge number of GPS receivers available for civilian applications, they cannot used in high dynamic vehicles due environmental issues (vibrations, temperatures, etc.) or imposed dynamic working limits. Only a few nations have the technology to build GPS receivers for spacecrafts or high dynamic vehicles is available and they imposes rules who difficult the access to this receivers. This project intends to build a GPS receiver, to install them in a payload of a sounding rocket and data collecting to verify its correct operation when at the flight conditions. The inner software to this receiver was available in source code and it was tested in a software development platform named GPS Architect. Many organizations cooperated to support this project: AEB, UFRN, IAE, INPE e CLBI. After many phases: defining working conditions, choice and searching electronic, the making of the printed boards, assembling and assembling tests; the receiver was installed in a VS30 sounding rocket launched at Centro de Lançamento da Barreira do Inferno in Natal/RN. Despite of the fact the locations data from the receiver were collected only the first 70 seconds of flight, this data confirms the correct operation of the receiver by the comparison between its positioning data and the the trajectory data from CLBI s tracking radar named ADOUR

Detecting offsets in GPS time series: first results from the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment

The accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series is degraded by the presence of offsets. To assess the effectiveness of methods that detect and remove these offsets, we designed and managed the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment. We simulated time series that mimicked realistic GPS data consisting of a velocity component, offsets, white and flicker noises (1/f spectrum noises) composed in an additive model. The data set was made available to the GPS analysis community without revealing the offsets, and several groups conducted blind tests with a range of detection approaches. The results show that, at present, manual methods (where offsets are hand picked) almost always give better results than automated or semi‒automated methods (two automated methods give quite similar velocity bias as the best manual solutions). For instance, the fifth percentile range (5% to 95%) in velocity bias for automated approaches is equal to 4.2 mm/year (most commonly ±0.4 mm/yr from the truth), whereas it is equal to 1.8 mm/yr for the manual solutions (most commonly 0.2 mm/yr from the truth). The magnitude of offsets detectable by manual solutions is smaller than for automated solutions, with the smallest detectable offset for the best manual and automatic solutions equal to 5 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Assuming the simulated time series noise levels are representative of real GPS time series, robust geophysical interpretation of individual site velocities lower than 0.2–0.4 mm/yr is therefore certainly not robust, although a limit of nearer 1 mm/yr would be a more conservative choice. Further work to improve offset detection in GPS coordinates time series is required before we can routinely interpret sub‒mm/yr velocities for single GPS stations.