Comprehensive evaluation of the WaterGAP3 model across climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic gradients

In den letzten Jahrzehnten haben sich makroskalige hydrologische Modelle als wichtige Werkzeuge etabliert um den Zustand der globalen erneuerbaren Süßwasserressourcen flächendeckend bewerten können. Sie werden heutzutage eingesetzt um eine große Bandbreite wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen zu beantworten, insbesondere hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen anthropogener Einflüsse auf das natürliche Abflussregime oder der Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels und Klimawandels auf die Ressource Wasser. Diese Auswirkungen lassen sich durch verschiedenste wasserbezogene Kenngrößen abschätzen, wie z.B. erneuerbare (Grund-)Wasserressourcen, Hochwasserrisiko, Dürren, Wasserstress und Wasserknappheit. Die Weiterentwicklung makroskaliger hydrologischer Modelle wurde insbesondere durch stetig steigende Rechenkapazitäten begünstigt, aber auch durch die zunehmende Verfügbarkeit von Fernerkundungsdaten und abgeleiteten Datenprodukten, die genutzt werden können, um die Modelle anzutreiben und zu verbessern. Wie alle makro- bis globalskaligen Modellierungsansätze unterliegen makroskalige hydrologische Simulationen erheblichen Unsicherheiten, die (i) auf räumliche Eingabedatensätze, wie z.B. meteorologische Größen oder Landoberflächenparameter, und (ii) im Besonderen auf die (oftmals) vereinfachte Abbildung physikalischer Prozesse im Modell zurückzuführen sind. Angesichts dieser Unsicherheiten ist es unabdingbar, die tatsächliche Anwendbarkeit und Prognosefähigkeit der Modelle unter diversen klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen zu überprüfen. Bisher wurden die meisten Evaluierungsstudien jedoch lediglich in wenigen, großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgeführt oder fokussierten auf kontinentalen Wasserflüssen. Dies steht im Kontrast zu vielen Anwendungsstudien, deren Analysen und Aussagen auf simulierten Zustandsgrößen und Flüssen in deutlich feinerer räumlicher Auflösung (Gridzelle) basieren. Den Kern der Dissertation bildet eine umfangreiche Evaluierung der generellen Anwendbarkeit des globalen hydrologischen Modells WaterGAP3 für die Simulation von monatlichen Abflussregimen und Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen auf Basis von mehr als 2400 Durchflussmessreihen für den Zeitraum 1958-2010. Die betrachteten Flusseinzugsgebiete repräsentieren ein breites Spektrum klimatischer und physiographischer Bedingungen, die Einzugsgebietsgröße reicht von 3000 bis zu mehreren Millionen Quadratkilometern. Die Modellevaluierung hat dabei zwei Zielsetzungen: Erstens soll die erzielte Modellgüte als Bezugswert dienen gegen den jegliche weiteren Modellverbesserungen verglichen werden können. Zweitens soll eine Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung entwickelt und getestet werden, die eindeutige Ansatzpunkte zur Modellverbesserung aufzeigen soll, falls die Modellgüte unzureichend ist. Hierzu werden komplementäre Modellgütemaße mit neun Gebietsparametern verknüpft, welche die klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen sowie den Grad anthropogener Beeinflussung in den einzelnen Einzugsgebieten quantifizieren. WaterGAP3 erzielt eine mittlere bis hohe Modellgüte für die Simulation von sowohl monatlichen Abflussregimen als auch Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen, jedoch sind für alle betrachteten Modellgütemaße deutliche räumliche Muster erkennbar. Von den neun betrachteten Gebietseigenschaften weisen insbesondere der Ariditätsgrad und die mittlere Gebietsneigung einen starken Einfluss auf die Modellgüte auf. Das Modell tendiert zur Überschätzung des jährlichen Abflussvolumens mit steigender Aridität. Dieses Verhalten ist charakteristisch für makroskalige hydrologische Modelle und ist auf die unzureichende Abbildung von Prozessen der Abflussbildung und –konzentration in wasserlimitierten Gebieten zurückzuführen. In steilen Einzugsgebieten wird eine geringe Modellgüte hinsichtlich der Abbildung von monatlicher Abflussvariabilität und zeitlicher Dynamik festgestellt, die sich auch in der Güte der Niedrig- und Hochwassersimulation widerspiegelt. Diese Beobachtung weist auf notwendige Modellverbesserungen in Bezug auf (i) die Aufteilung des Gesamtabflusses in schnelle und verzögerte Abflusskomponente und (ii) die Berechnung der Fließgeschwindigkeit im Gerinne hin. Die im Rahmen der Dissertation entwickelte Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung durch Verknüpfung von komplementären Modellgütemaßen und Einzugsgebietseigenschaften wurde exemplarisch am Beispiel des WaterGAP3 Modells erprobt. Die Methode hat sich als effizientes Werkzeug erwiesen, um räumliche Muster in der Modellgüte zu erklären und Defizite in der Modellstruktur zu identifizieren. Die entwickelte Methode ist generell für jedes hydrologische Modell anwendbar. Sie ist jedoch insbesondere für makroskalige Modelle und multi-basin Studien relevant, da sie das Fehlen von feldspezifischen Kenntnissen und gezielten Messkampagnen, auf die üblicherweise in der Einzugsgebietsmodellierung zurückgegriffen wird, teilweise ausgleichen kann.

Peeling, healing and bursting in a lubricated elastic sheet

We consider the dynamics of an elastic sheet lubricated by the flow of a thin layer of fluid that separates it from a rigid wall. By considering long wavelength deformations of the sheet, we derive an evolution equation for its motion, accounting for the effects of elastic bending, viscous lubrication and body forces. We then analyze various steady and unsteady problems for the sheet such as peeling, healing, levitating and bursting using a combination of numerical simulation and dimensional analysis. On the macro-scale, we corroborate our theory with a simple experiment, and on the micro-scale, we analyze an oscillatory valve that can transform a continuous stream of fluid into a series of discrete pulses.

Host plant recognition by the root feeding clover weevil, Sitona lepidus (Coleoptera : Curculionidae)

This study investigated the ability of neonatal larvae of the root-feeding weevil, Sitona lepidus Gyllenhal, to locate white clover Trifolium repens L. (Fabaceae) roots growing in soil and to distinguish them from the roots of other species of clover and a co-occurring grass species. Choice experiments used a combination of invasive techniques and the novel technique of high resolution X-ray microtomography to non-invasively track larval movement in the soil towards plant roots. Burrowing distances towards roots of different plant species were also examined. Newly hatched S. lepidus recognized T. repens roots and moved preferentially towards them when given a choice of roots of subterranean clover, Trifolium subterraneum L. (Fabaceae), strawberry clover Trifolium fragiferum L. (Fabaceae), or perennial ryegrass Lolium perenne L. (Poaceae). Larvae recognized T. repens roots, whether released in groups of five or singly, when released 25 mm (meso-scale recognition) or 60 mm (macro-scale recognition) away from plant roots. There was no statistically significant difference in movement rates of larvae.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Forward modelling to determine the observational signatures of white-light imaging and interplanetary scintillation for the propagation of an interplanetary shock in the ecliptic plane

Recent coordinated observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) from the EISCAT, MERLIN, and STELab, and stereoscopic white-light imaging from the two heliospheric imagers (HIs) onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft are significant to continuously track the propagation and evolution of solar eruptions throughout interplanetary space. In order to obtain a better understanding of the observational signatures in these two remote-sensing techniques, the magnetohydrodynamics of the macro-scale interplanetary disturbance and the radio-wave scattering of the micro-scale electron-density fluctuation are coupled and investigated using a newly constructed multi-scale numerical model. This model is then applied to a case of an interplanetary shock propagation within the ecliptic plane. The shock could be nearly invisible to an HI, once entering the Thomson-scattering sphere of the HI. The asymmetry in the optical images between the western and eastern HIs suggests the shock propagation off the Sun–Earth line. Meanwhile, an IPS signal, strongly dependent on the local electron density, is insensitive to the density cavity far downstream of the shock front. When this cavity (or the shock nose) is cut through by an IPS ray-path, a single speed component at the flank (or the nose) of the shock can be recorded; when an IPS ray-path penetrates the sheath between the shock nose and this cavity, two speed components at the sheath and flank can be detected. Moreover, once a shock front touches an IPS ray-path, the derived position and speed at the irregularity source of this IPS signal, together with an assumption of a radial and constant propagation of the shock, can be used to estimate the later appearance of the shock front in the elongation of the HI field of view. The results of synthetic measurements from forward modelling are helpful in inferring the in-situ properties of coronal mass ejection from real observational data via an inverse approach.

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

Estrutura econômica, mercado de trabalho e evolução sócio-ocupacional no Rio Grande do Norte 2001 a 2008: reflexo de uma condição mercantil e estruturalmente periférica

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the evolution of the socio-occupational status in Rio Grande do Norte from 2001 to 2008, based on the characterization of the socio-economic status of this State from the analysis of labor market norte-rio-grandense . The study, specifically, drew a comparison between the dynamics of the labor market in Rio Grande do Norte and the capital city, Natal. From this perspective, the purpose was to make a relationship between the social division of labor and its effects on the socio-spatial division, represented in the "macro scale" by the federal unit and the "micro level" for the capital; locus of economic and population concentration. The collection of data on the labor market had as a major source PNAD/IBGE, characterizing the labor market in many ways: people of working age, economically active population and employed and unemployed people, classified by age, sex, color, education, income and social protection condition. However, as for the socio-occupational division, we follow the methodology used by the research group on national television, based in IPPUR /UFRJ, called Monitoring of the Metropolis," which rallied twenty-four groups that aggregate the occupations found in the PNAD/IBGE, in eight groups of socio-occupational categories, according to the similarity between them. It was used in the socio-spatial cutting two relevant discussions, which are inter-related and were characterized as crucial points in developing the research problem: the former was related to the influence of the hegemony of merchant capital in the labor market in Rio Grande North and, the latter, it referred the socio-economic relations between the territory and the variable occupation. Lastly, the results all indicated that in Rio Grande do Norte, as a peripheral state, has suffered the devastating influence of the hegemony of capital purely commercial basis, where "wealth" of capitalism is generated through the sphere of mere movement of goods and services rather than a productive process due to the social relations of production more advanced. We have a little advanced economic structure, with a tertiary sector that has propagated under-employment or disguised unemployment. Similarly, the agricultural sector has been presented as an example of greater social degradation of working conditions in the state. The secondary sector, in turn, also was not behind this uncertainty; on the contrary, confirmed that condition, with poor levels of income, low education of the workforce and a high degree of social helplessness, even in the state capital, space full urban area, which although always appear with a favorable condition compared to Province, in practically most of the variables studied, was also reflected at the same time the author of a structurally underdeveloped condition

3-D reconstruction by extended depth-of-field in failure analysis - Case study II: Fractal analysis of interlaminar fracture in carbon/epoxy composites

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

When small is different: The case of membranes inside tubes

Recently, classical elasticity theory for thin sheets was used to demonstrate the existence of a universal structural behavior describing the confinement of sheets inside cylindrical tubes. However, this kind of formalism was derived to describe macroscopic systems. A natural question is whether this behavior still holds at nanoscale. In this work, we have investigated through molecular dynamics simulations the structural behavior of graphene and boron nitride single layers confined into nanotubes. Our results show that the class of universality observed at macroscale is no longer observed at nanoscale. The origin of this discrepancy is addressed in terms of the relative importance of forces and energies at macro and nano scales. © 2012 Materials Research Society.

Distribuição de frequência das condições de céu em função das variações climáticas em Botucatu-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise da influência do transporte coletivo intermunicipal suburbano na polarização de Araraquara e as regionalizações oficiais de governança do Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

Identification guide to some Diaptomid species (Crustacea, Copepoda, Calanoida, Diaptomidae) of "de la Plata" River Basin (South America)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

INVESTIGATION INTO CURRENT EFFICIENCY FOR PULSE ELECTROCHEMICAL MACHINING OF NICKEL ALLOY

INVESTIGATION INTO CURRENT EFFICIENCY FOR PULSE ELECTROCHEMICAL MACHINING OF NICKEL ALLOY Yu Zhang, M.S. University of Nebraska, 2010 Adviser: Kamlakar P. Rajurkar Electrochemical machining (ECM) is a nontraditional manufacturing process that can machine difficult-to-cut materials. In ECM, material is removed by controlled electrochemical dissolution of an anodic workpiece in an electrochemical cell. ECM has extensive applications in automotive, petroleum, aerospace, textile, medical, and electronics industries. Improving current efficiency is a challenging task for any electro-physical or electrochemical machining processes. The current efficiency is defined as the ratio of the observed amount of metal dissolved to the theoretical amount predicted from Faraday’s law, for the same specified conditions of electrochemical equivalent, current, etc [1]. In macro ECM, electrolyte conductivity greatly influences the current efficiency of the process. Since there is a certain limit to enhance the conductivity of the electrolyte, a process innovation is needed for further improvement in current efficiency in ECM. Pulse electrochemical machining (PECM) is one such approach in which the electrolyte conductivity is improved by electrolyte flushing in pulse off-time. The aim of this research is to study the influence of major factors on current efficiency in a pulse electrochemical machining process in macro scale and to develop a linear regression model for predicting current efficiency of the process. An in-house designed electrochemical cell was used for machining nickel alloy (ASTM B435) by PECM. The effects of current density, type of electrolyte, and electrolyte flow rate, on current efficiency under different experimental conditions were studied. Results indicated that current efficiency is dependent on electrolyte, electrolyte flow rate, and current density. Linear regression models of current efficiency were compared with twenty new data points graphically and quantitatively. Models developed were close enough to the actual results to be reliable. In addition, an attempt has been made in this work to consider those factors in PECM that have not been investigated in earlier works. This was done by simulating the process by using COMSOL software. However, it was found that the results from this attempt were not substantially different from the earlier reported studies.

Caratterizzazione meccanica multiscala di materiali rocciosi strutturalmente complessi

The research work was aimed at studying, with a deterministic approach, the relationships between the rock’s texture and its mechanical properties determined at the laboratory scale. The experimentation was performed on a monomineralic crystalline rock, varying in texture, i.e. grains shape. Multi-scale analysis has been adopted to determine the elasto-mechanical properties of the crystals composing the rock and its strength and deformability at the macro-scale. This let us to understand how the structural variability of the investigated rock affects its macromechanical behaviour. Investigations have been performed on three different scales: nano-scale (order of nm), micro-scale (tens of m) and macro-scale (cm). Innovative techniques for rock mechanics, i.e. Depth Sensing Indentation (DSI), have been applied, in order to determine the elasto-mechanical properties of the calcite grains. These techniques have also allowed to study the influence of grain boundaries on the mechanical response of calcite grains by varying the indents’ sizes and to quantify the effect of the applied load on the hardness and elastic modulus of the grain (indentation size effect, ISE). The secondary effects of static indentation Berkovich, Vickers and Knoop were analyzed by SEM, and some considerations on the rock’s brittle behaviour and the effect of microcracks can be made.