Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Department of Energy : management problems require a long-term commitment to change : report to the Secretary of Energy /

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Conservation ecology of amphibians and reptiles in Sarapiqui, Costa Rica : forest fragmentation and long term population change

In order to explore the conservation ecology of frogs and lizards in the Sarapiqui region of Costa Rica, I compared populations and communities among forest fragments and La Selva Biological Station, as well as across 35 years of sampling at La Selva. Species richness in nine fragments combined was 85% of that found in La Selva, and community composition varied among sites and by fragment size class. Although communities in fragments differed fundamentally from those in intact forest, the high diversity observed across all fragments indicates that preserving a network of small forest patches may be of great conservation value to the herpetofauna of this region. According to data from past studies at La Selva, most common species of leaf-litter frogs and lizards demonstrated significant decreases in density over the 35-year period. My findings may represent either natural population fluctuations or sweeping faunal declines at this site.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Long-term Postoperative Atrophy Of Contralateral Hippocampus And Cognitive Function In Unilateral Refractory Mtle With Unilateral Hippocampal Sclerosis.

This study aimed to evaluate long-term atrophy in contralateral hippocampal volume after surgery for unilateral MTLE, as well as the cognitive outcome for patients submitted to either selective transsylvian amygdalohippocampectomy (SelAH) or anterior temporal lobe resection (ATL). We performed a longitudinal study of 47 patients with MRI signs of unilateral hippocampal sclerosis (23 patients with right-sided hippocampal sclerosis) who underwent surgical treatment for MTLE. They underwent preoperative/postoperative high-resolution MRI as well as neuropsychological assessment for memory and estimated IQ. To investigate possible changes in the contralateral hippocampus of patients, we included 28 controls who underwent two MRIs at long-term intervals. The volumetry using preoperative MRI showed significant hippocampal atrophy ipsilateral to the side of surgery when compared with controls (p<0.0001) but no differences in contralateral hippocampal volumes. The mean postoperative follow-up was 8.7 years (± 2.5 SD; median=8.0). Our patients were classified as Engel I (80%), Engel II (18.2%), and Engel III (1.8%). We observed a small but significant reduction in the contralateral hippocampus of patients but no volume changes in controls. Most of the patients presented small declines in both estimated IQ and memory, which were more pronounced in patients with left TLE and in those with persistent seizures. Different surgical approaches did not impose differences in seizure control or in cognitive outcome. We observed small declines in cognitive scores with most of these patients, which were worse in patients with left-sided resection and in those who continued to suffer from postoperative seizures. We also demonstrated that manual volumetry can reveal a reduction in volume in the contralateral hippocampus, although this change was mild and could not be detected by visual analysis. These new findings suggest that dynamic processes continue to act after the removal of the hippocampus, and further studies with larger groups may help in understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Long-term Decline Of The Amazon Carbon Sink.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Long-term potentiation of synaptic transmission in the avian hippocampus

The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.

Inhibition of transmitter release and long-term depression in the avian hippocampus

Long-term depression has recently been shown to occur at glutamatergic synapses in the avian hippocampus and requires activation of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II in the nerve terminal. Here using whole cell and intracellular recordings from brain slices, we show that the N-type calcium channel contributes significantly to glutamate release in the avian hippocampus. Activation of the metabotrobic gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)(B) receptor by the specific agonist baclofen blocks synaptic transmission. The action of baclofen was associated with a change in paired pulse facilitation indicating that it resulted from a reduction in the probability of transmitter release, In contrast, no change in paired pulse facilitation was observed following the induction of long-term depression. These results show that activation of GABA(B) receptors and long-term depression reduce transmitter release by distinct mechanisms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

Long-Term Pharmacotherapy for Obesity in Elderly Patients A Retrospective Evaluation of Medical Records from a Specialized Obesity Outpatient Clinic

Background: Obesity is a serious chronic disease and the prevalence of this condition is increasing among the elderly. Although the benefits of weight loss to improve control of associated diseases are well known in young adults, they are not in older patients. The use of anti-obesity drugs to promote weight loss is widespread in Brazil and other countries, and obesity specialists frequently prescribe medicines in doses and for durations previously unreported in the literature. Sibutramine, orlistat and amfepramone (diethylpropion) have been evaluated in clinical trials of more than 2 years` duration in adults, demonstrating safety and efficacy, but long-term studies in obesity treatment are absent for other drugs. The efficacy and safety of obesity pharmacotherapy among the elderly is unknown. Objective: To describe the experience of obesity pharmacotherapy in the elderly in a specialized obesity care setting in Brazil, with a focus on efficacy and safety. Methods: A retrospective evaluation was conducted on medical charts from an outpatient clinic of a specialized tertiary centre for the treatment of obesity. We included patients who had had at least one consultation between January and December 2007, were aged >= 60 years at the beginning of the treatment, had had at least 6 months of follow-up and had received a prescription of at least one potential weight-loss drug. Diagnoses reported on medical records were documented. Age, weight, height and body mass index (BMI) were recorded at admission, after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, and at the last available visit. The medicines prescribed, together with the dose, duration of use, adverse effects and reasons for discontinuation, were documented. Results: The group consisted of 44 women (86%) and 7 men (14%), with a mean +/- SD age of 65.2 +/- 4.5 years, weight of 95.3 +/- 12.5 kg and BMI of 38.5 +/- 4.3 kg/m(2). The mean +/- SD time of follow-up was 39.3 +/- 26.4 months, and the mean weight loss was 6.65 kg (p < 0.01). After the first 6 months, the mean +/- SD weight loss was 5.7 +/- 3.8 kg (p < 0.0001). A smaller weight loss was seen between the 6th and 12th months, with no statistically significant change in weight thereafter. A weight loss of >= 5% was achieved by 64.71%, 63.64%, 62.16% and 69.70% in the 6th, 12th, 18th and 24th months, respectively, and a weight loss of >= 10% was achieved by 17.65%, 34.09%, 32.43% and 39.39% in the 6th, 12th, 18th and 24th months, respectively. The medicines prescribed were sibutramine, orlistat, fluoxetine, sertraline, topiramate, fenproporex, mazindol and amfepramone, alone or in combinations, concomitantly or sequentially. The reasons for discontinuation were lack of response (n = 13), loss of response (development of tolerance) [n= 11], lack of adherence (n = 14) and adverse effects (n= 14). One episode of atrial flutter occurred in a patient taking fenproporex. The weight-loss medications were generally well tolerated, and only transient adverse events were reported. Conclusions: Long-term pharmacotherapy for obesity was effective and well tolerated by this group of elderly patients.

Clinical changes of cervical dystonia pattern in long-term botulinum toxin treated patients

Cervical dystonia (CD) is a complex disorder but the response to long-term botulinum toxin (BTX) therapy is satisfactory in most cases. Bad results are attributed by some authors to changes in muscle activation. Our purpose is to verify if the change in head deviation affects negatively the response to BTX therapy it) a long-term follow-up, and if there are any differences in clinical parameters of these patients in comparison to those with stable pattern. From a total of 88 patients evaluated at the Movement Disorders Clinics of Hospital das Clinicas - University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine between January 1993 and December 2005, 67 were included. In 24 (35.8%) change in pattern of CID was observed, in a medium follow-up period of 80 months. The time between onset of dystonia and the diagnosis of pattern change was 9.7 years. Comparing with patients with no changes in CD pattern, there were no significant statistical differences. Improvement of symptoms around 60% was reported in both groups. In conclusion, the change in head deviation observed in CD was not responsible for bad response to therapy with BTX and there were no significant differences between both groups. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.