Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

Community based ecotourism as a panacea for protected areas: the use of common property theory in its analysis and development

Tourism is the worlds largest employer, accounting for 10% of jobs worldwide (WTO, 1999). There are over 30,000 protected areas around the world, covering about 10% of the land surface(IUCN, 2002). Protected area management is moving towards a more integrated form of management, which recognises the social and economic needs of the worlds finest areas and seeks to provide long term income streams and support social cohesion through active but sustainable use of resources. Ecotourism - 'responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well- being of local people' (The Ecotourism Society, 1991) - is often cited as a panacea for incorporating the principles of sustainable development in protected area management. However, few examples exist worldwide to substantiate this claim. In reality, ecotourism struggles to provide social and economic empowerment locally and fails to secure proper protection of the local and global environment. Current analysis of ecotourism provides a useful checklist of interconnected principles for more successful initiatives, but no overall framework of analysis or theory. This paper argues that applying common property theory to the application of ecotourism can help to establish more rigorous, multi-layered analysis that identifies the institutional demands of community based ecotourism (CBE). The paper draws on existing literature on ecotourism and several new case studies from developed and developing countries around the world. It focuses on the governance of CBE initiatives, particularly the interaction between local stakeholders and government and the role that third party non-governmental organisations can play in brokering appropriate institutional arrangements. The paper concludes by offering future research directions."

Leaf trapping and retention of particles by holm oak and other common tree species in Mediterranean urban environments

Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a widespread urban street tree in the Mediterranean region, is widely used as biomonitor of persistent atmospheric pollutants, especially particulate-bound metals. By using lab- and field-based experimental approaches, we compared the leaf-level capacity for particles’ capture and retention between Q. ilex and other common Mediterranean urban trees: Quercus cerris, Platanus × hispanica, Tilia cordata and Olea europaea. All applied methods were effective in quantifying particulate capture and retention, although not univocal in ranking species performances. Distinctive morphological features of leaves led to differences in species’ ability to trap and retain particles of different size classes and to accumulate metals after exposure to traffic in an urban street. Overall, P. × hispanica and T. cordata showed the largest capture potential per unit leaf area for most model particles (Na+ and powder particles), and street-level Cu and Pb, while Q. ilex acted intermediately. After wash-off experiments, P. × hispanica leaves had the greatest retention capacity among the tested species and O. europaea the lowest. We concluded that the Platanus planting could be considered in Mediterranean urban environments due to its efficiency in accumulating and retaining airborne particulates; however, with atmospheric pollution being typically higher in winter, the evergreen Q. ilex represents a better year-round choice to mitigate the impact of airborne particulate pollutants.

Photoreceptor topography and spectral sensitivity in the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)

Marsupials are believed to be the only non-primate mammals with both trichromatic and dichromatic color vision. The diversity of color vision systems present in marsupials remains mostly unexplored. Marsupials occupy a diverse range of habitats, which may have led to considerable variation in the presence, density, distribution, and spectral sensitivity of retinal photoreceptors. In this study we analyzed the distribution of photoreceptors in the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Immunohistochemistry in wholemounts revealed three cone subpopulations recognized within two spectrally distinct cone classes. Long-wavelength sensitive (LWS) single cones were the largest cone subgroup (67-86%), and formed a weak horizontal visual streak (peak density 2,106 ± 435/mm2) across the central retina. LWS double cones were strongly concentrated ventrally (569 ± 66/mm2), and created a "negative" visual streak (134 ± 45/mm2) in the central retina. The strong regionalization between LWS cone topographies suggests differing visual functions. Short-wavelength sensitive (SWS) cones were present in much lower densities (3-10%), mostly located ventrally (179 ± 101/mm2). A minority population of cones (0-2.4%) remained unlabeled by both SWS- and LWS-specific antibodies, and may represent another cone population. Microspectrophotometry of LWS cone and rod visual pigments shows peak spectral sensitivities at 544 nm and 500 nm, respectively. Cone to ganglion cell convergences remain low and constant across the retina, thereby maintaining good visual acuity, but poor contrast sensitivity during photopic vision. Given that brushtail possums are so strongly nocturnal, we hypothesize that their acuity is set by the scotopic visual system, and have minimized the number of cones necessary to serve the ganglion cells for photopic vision.

Associated and independent comparisons between the two largest follicles preceding follicle deviation in cattle

Follicle diameters and concentrations of follicular fluid factors were studied in the two largest follicles (F1 and F2) using F1 diameters in increments of 0.2 mm (equivalent to 4 h intervals) and extending from 7.4 to 8.4 mm (12 heifers in each of 6 groups). Changes were compared between follicles using the F2 associated with each F1-diameter group. Diameter deviation began in the 8.2-mm group as indicated by a greater (P < 0.05) diameter difference between F1 and F2 in the 8.4-mm group than in the 8.2-mm group. In the 8.0-mm group, estradiol concentrations began to increase (P < 0.05) differentially in F1 versus F2, and free insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) began to decrease differentially in F2 (P < 0.06). Combined for F1 and the associated F2, activin-A concentrations increased (P < 0.05) between the 7.6- and 8.2-mm groups and then decreased (P < 0.05). Results supported the hypothesis that estradiol and free IGF-1 concentrations simultaneously become higher in F1 than in the associated F2 by the beginning of diameter deviation. Results did not support the hypothesis that a transient elevation in activin-A is present in F1 but not in the associated F2 at the beginning of the estradiol and IGF-1 changes; instead, a mean transient elevation in activin-A occurred at this time only when data for the two follicles were combined. Comparisons between F1 and F2 also were made by independently grouping F2 and using diameter groups at 0.2-mm increments for F2 as well as for F1. In the diameter groups common to F1 and F2 (7.4, 7.6, 7.8, and 8.0 mm) there was a group effect (P < 0.003) for estradiol involving an increase (P < 0.05) beginning at the 7.6-mm group averaged over F1 and F2. For free IGF-1 concentrations, a fluctuation (a significant increase followed by a significant decrease) occurred independently in F1 between the 7.4-to 7.8-mm groups and independently in F2 between the 7.0- to 7.4-mm groups.

Estimation of scots pine defoliation by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) using multi-temporal radar data

In 1998-2001 Finland suffered the most severe insect outbreak ever recorded, over 500,000 hectares. The outbreak was caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The outbreak has continued in the study area, Palokangas, ever since. To find a good method to monitor this type of outbreaks, the purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of multi-temporal ERS-2 and ENVISAT SAR imagery for estimating Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) defoliation. Three methods were tested: unsupervised k-means clustering, supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression. In addition, I assessed if harvested areas could be differentiated from the defoliated forest using the same methods. Two different speckle filters were used to determine the effect of filtering on the SAR imagery and subsequent results. The logistic regression performed best, producing a classification accuracy of 81.6% (kappa 0.62) with two classes (no defoliation, >20% defoliation). LDA accuracy was with two classes at best 77.7% (kappa 0.54) and k-means 72.8 (0.46). In general, the largest speckle filter, 5 x 5 image window, performed best. When additional classes were added the accuracy was usually degraded on a step-by-step basis. The results were good, but because of the restrictions in the study they should be confirmed with independent data, before full conclusions can be made that results are reliable. The restrictions include the small size field data and, thus, the problems with accuracy assessment (no separate testing data) as well as the lack of meteorological data from the imaging dates.

Intensive care medicine in Mongolia's 3 largest cities: outlining the needs

PURPOSE: To evaluate intensive care resources, support, and personnel available in Mongolia's 3 largest cities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective study was performed as a questionnaire-based survey evaluating intensive care units (ICUs) in Mongolia's 3 main cities. RESULTS: Twenty-one of 31 ICUs participated in the survey. The median number of beds per ICU was 7 (interquartile ranges, 6-10) with 0.7 (0.6-0.9) physicians and 1.5 (0.6-1.8) nurses per bed. A 24-hour physician service was available in 61.9% of the participating ICUs. A median number of 359 patients (250-500) with an average age of 39 (30-49) years were treated annually. Oxygen was available in all ICUs, but only for 60% (17-75) of beds. Pressurized air was available in 33% of the ICUs for 24% (0-15) of beds. Of the ICUs, 52.4% had a lung ventilator serving 20% (0-23) of beds. The most common admission diagnoses were sepsis, stroke, cardiac disease, postoperative or postpartum hemorrhage, and intoxication. Availability of medical equipment, disposables, and drugs was inadequate in all ICUs. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive care medicine in Mongolia's 3 largest cities is an under-resourced and underdeveloped medical specialty. The main problems encountered are insufficient training of staff as well as lack of medical equipment, disposables, and drugs.

The Common Agricultural Policy: The Future of the CAP and why real reform will never happen. EUMA Paper Vol. 6 No. 7, May 2010

This paper sets out to examine the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union from its inception to present day 1. Specifically, this paper seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What long-term effects, if any, did the circumstances surrounding, and leading up to the formation of the CAP have; (2) What have internal and external responses been to the CAP; (3) How has the CAP responded to major events both internally (within the European Union), and externally (internationally); (4) What affect does the recently implemented Lisbon Treaty2 have on the CAP, and (5) What is the future of the CAP and CAP reform? In order to answer these questions this paper begins with the contention that the CAP is in fact the largest and strongest driving force of EU expansion. In support of this proposition, this paper first examines the circumstances and events leading to the creation of the CAP in the European Community. Second, this paper examines what long-term effects the circumstances surrounding the CAP’s inception have had on the policy, particularly calling attention to the disproportionate Franco-German CAP benefits. Third, the paper then examines how the CAP has responded to historical events that have had significant effects on the European community, particularly EU expansion, the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, and the recent worldwide economic crisis. Finally, this paper examines common criticisms of and conflicts surrounding the CAP, both internally and externally, and argues that CAP reform, at least within the current institutional framework of the European Union, can never truly occur.

Common And Endangered Species: How Does Society Allocate Support For Their Conservation

Examines how society allocates support for species’ conservation when numbers involved are large and resources are limited. Rational behaviour suggests that species in urgent need of conservation will receive more support than those species that are common. However, we demonstrate that in the absence of balanced knowledge common species will receive support more than they would otherwise receive despite society placing high existence values on all species. Twenty four species, both common and endangered and some with a restricted distribution, are examined. We demonstrate that balanced information is vital in order to direct more support for species that are endangered than those that are not. Implications for conservation stemming from the findings are discussed.

Rural and remote road safety study : final report

• Introduction: Concern and action for rural road safety is relatively new in Australia in comparison to the field of traffic safety as a whole. In 2003, a program of research was begun by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) and the Rural Health Research Unit (RHRU) at James Cook University to investigate factors contributing to serious rural road crashes in the North Queensland region. This project was funded by the Premier’s Department, Main Roads Department, Queensland Transport, QFleet, Queensland Rail, Queensland Ambulance Service, Department of Natural Resources and Queensland Police Service. Additional funding was provided by NRMA Insurance for a PhD scholarship. In-kind support was provided through the four hospitals used for data collection, namely Cairns Base Hospital, The Townsville Hospital, Mount Isa Hospital and Atherton Hospital.----- The primary aim of the project was to: Identify human factors related to the occurrence of serious traffic incidents in rural and remote areas of Australia, and to the trauma suffered by persons as a result of these incidents, using a sample drawn from a rural and remote area in North Queensland.----- The data and analyses presented in this report are the core findings from two broad studies: a general examination of fatalities and casualties from rural and remote crashes for the period 1 March 2004 until 30 June 2007, and a further linked case-comparison study of hospitalised patients compared with a sample of non-crash-involved drivers.----- • Method: The study was undertaken in rural North Queensland, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) statistical divisions of North Queensland, Far North Queensland and North-West Queensland. Urban areas surrounding Townsville, Thuringowa and Cairns were not included. The study methodology was centred on serious crashes, as defined by a resulting hospitalisation for 24 hours or more and/or a fatality. Crashes meeting this criteria within the North Queensland region between 1 March 2004 and 30 June 2007 were identified through hospital records and interviewed where possible. Additional data was sourced from coroner’s reports, the Queensland Transport road crash database, the Queensland Ambulance Service and the study hospitals in the region.----- This report is divided into chapters corresponding to analyses conducted on the collected crash and casualty data.----- Chapter 3 presents an overview of all crashes and casualties identified during the study period. Details are presented in regard to the demographics and road user types of casualties; the locations, times, types, and circumstances of crashes; along with the contributing circumstances of crashes.----- Chapter 4 presents the results of summary statistics for all casualties for which an interview was able to be conducted. Statistics are presented separately for drivers and riders, passengers, pedestrians and cyclists. Details are also presented separately for drivers and riders crashing in off-road and on-road settings. Results from questionnaire data are presented in relation to demographics; the experience of the crash in narrative form; vehicle characteristics and maintenance; trip characteristics (e.g. purpose and length of journey; periods of fatigue and monotony; distractions from driving task); driving history; alcohol and drug use; medical history; driving attitudes, intentions and behaviour; attitudes to enforcement; and experience of road safety advertising.----- Chapter 5 compares the above-listed questionnaire results between on-road crash-involved casualties and interviews conducted in the region with non-crash-involved persons. Direct comparisons as well as age and sex adjusted comparisons are presented.----- Chapter 6 presents information on those casualties who were admitted to one of the study hospitals during the study period. Brief information is given regarding the demographic characteristics of these casualties. Emergency services’ data is used to highlight the characteristics of patient retrieval and transport to and between hospitals. The major injuries resulting from the crashes are presented for each region of the body and analysed by vehicle type, occupant type, seatbelt status, helmet status, alcohol involvement and nature of crash. Estimates are provided of the costs associated with in-hospital treatment and retrieval.----- Chapter 7 describes the characteristics of the fatal casualties and the nature and circumstances of the crashes. Demographics, road user types, licence status, crash type and contributing factors for crashes are presented. Coronial data is provided in regard to contributing circumstances (including alcohol, drugs and medical conditions), cause of death, resulting injuries, and restraint and helmet use.----- Chapter 8 presents the results of a comparison between casualties’ crash descriptions and police-attributed crash circumstances. The relative frequency of contributing circumstances are compared both broadly within the categories of behavioural, environmental, vehicle related, medical and other groupings and specifically for circumstances within these groups.----- Chapter 9 reports on the associated research projects which have been undertaken on specific topics related to rural road safety.----- Finally, Chapter 10 reports on the conclusions and recommendations made from the program of research.---- • Major Recommendations : From the findings of these analyses, a number of major recommendations were made: + Male drivers and riders - Male drivers and riders should continue to be the focus of interventions, given their very high representation among rural and remote road crash fatalities and serious injuries.----- - The group of males aged between 30 and 50 years comprised the largest number of casualties and must also be targeted for change if there is to be a meaningful improvement in rural and remote road safety.----- + Motorcyclists - Single vehicle motorcycle crashes constitute over 80% of serious, on-road rural motorcycle crashes and need particular attention in development of policy and infrastructure.----- - The motorcycle safety consultation process currently being undertaken by Queensland Transport (via the "Motorbike Safety in Queensland - Consultation Paper") is strongly endorsed. As part of this process, particular attention needs to be given to initiatives designed to reduce rural and single vehicle motorcycle crashes.----- - The safety of off-road riders is a serious problem that falls outside the direct responsibility of either Transport or Health departments. Responsibility for this issue needs to be attributed to develop appropriate policy, regulations and countermeasures.----- + Road safety for Indigenous people - Continued resourcing and expansion of The Queensland Aboriginal Peoples and Torres Strait Islander Peoples Driver Licensing Program to meet the needs of remote and Indigenous communities with significantly lower licence ownership levels.----- - Increased attention needs to focus on the contribution of geographic disadvantage (remoteness) factors to remote and Indigenous road trauma.----- + Road environment - Speed is the ‘final common pathway’ in determining the severity of rural and remote crashes and rural speed limits should be reduced to 90km/hr for sealed off-highway roads and 80km/hr for all unsealed roads as recommended in the Austroads review and in line with the current Tasmanian government trial.----- - The Department of Main Roads should monitor rural crash clusters and where appropriate work with local authorities to conduct relevant audits and take mitigating action. - The international experts at the workshop reviewed the data and identified the need to focus particular attention on road design management for dangerous curves. They also indicated the need to maximise the use of audio-tactile linemarking (audible lines) and rumble strips to alert drivers to dangerous conditions and behaviours.----- + Trauma costs - In accordance with Queensland Health priorities, recognition should be given to the substantial financial costs associated with acute management of trauma resulting from serious rural and remote crashes.----- - Efforts should be made to develop a comprehensive, regionally specific costing formula for road trauma that incorporates the pre-hospital, hospital and post-hospital phases of care. This would inform health resource allocation and facilitate the evaluation of interventions.----- - The commitment of funds to the development of preventive strategies to reduce rural and remote crashes should take into account the potential cost savings associated with trauma.----- - A dedicated study of the rehabilitation needs and associated personal and healthcare costs arising from rural and remote road crashes should be undertaken.----- + Emergency services - While the study has demonstrated considerable efficiency in the response and retrieval systems of rural and remote North Queensland, relevant Intelligent Transport Systems technologies (such as vehicle alarm systems) to improve crash notification should be both developed and evaluated.----- + Enforcement - Alcohol and speed enforcement programs should target the period between 2 and 6pm because of the high numbers of crashes in the afternoon period throughout the rural region.----- + Drink driving - Courtesy buses should be advocated and schemes such as the Skipper project promoted as local drink driving countermeasures in line with the very high levels of community support for these measures identified in the hospital study.------ - Programs should be developed to target the high levels of alcohol consumption identified in rural and remote areas and related involvement in crashes.----- - Referrals to drink driving rehabilitation programs should be mandated for recidivist offenders.----- + Data requirements - Rural and remote road crashes should receive the same quality of attention as urban crashes. As such, it is strongly recommended that increased resources be committed to enable dedicated Forensic Crash Units to investigate rural and remote fatal and serious injury crashes.----- - Transport department records of rural and remote crashes should record the crash location using the national ARIA area classifications used by health departments as a means to better identifying rural crashes.----- - Rural and remote crashes tend to be unnoticed except in relatively infrequent rural reviews. They should receive the same level of attention and this could be achieved if fatalities and fatal crashes were coded by the ARIA classification system and included in regular crash reporting.----- - Health, Transport and Police agencies should collect a common, minimal set of data relating to road crashes and injuries, including presentations to small rural and remote health facilities.----- + Media and community education programmes - Interventions seeking to highlight the human contribution to crashes should be prioritised. Driver distraction, alcohol and inappropriate speed for the road conditions are key examples of such behaviours.----- - Promotion of basic safety behaviours such as the use of seatbelts and helmets should be given a renewed focus.----- - Knowledge, attitude and behavioural factors that have been identified for the hospital Brief Intervention Trial should be considered in developing safety campaigns for rural and remote people. For example challenging the myth of the dangerous ‘other’ or ‘non-local’ driver.----- - Special educational initiatives on the issues involved in rural and remote driving should be undertaken. For example the material used by Main Roads, the Australian Defence Force and local initiatives.

Improved cryptanalysis of the Common Scrambling Algorithm Stream Cipher

This paper provides a fresh analysis of the widely-used Common Scrambling Algorithm Stream Cipher (CSA-SC). Firstly, a new representation of CSA-SC with a state size of only 89 bits is given, a significant reduction from the 103 bit state of a previous CSA-SC representation. Analysis of this 89-bit representation demonstrates that the basis of a previous guess-and-determine attack is flawed. Correcting this flaw increases the complexity of that attack so that it is worse than exhaustive key search. Although that attack is not feasible, the reduced state size of our representation makes it obvious that CSA-SC is vulnerable to several generic attacks, for which feasible parameters are given.

Anti-metabolic effects of Galanthus nivalis agglutinin and wheat germ agglutinin on nymphal stages of the common brown leafhopper using a novel artificial diet system

The common brown leafhopper, Orosius orientalis (Matsumura) (Homoptera: Cicadellidae), previously described as Orosius argentatus (Evans), is an important vector of several viruses and phytoplasmas worldwide. In Australia, phytoplasmas vectored by O. orientalis cause a range of economically important diseases, including legume little leaf (Hutton & Grylls, 1956), tomato big bud (Osmelak, 1986), lucerne witches broom (Helson, 1951), potato purple top wilt (Harding & Teakle, 1985), and Australian lucerne yellows (Pilkington et al., 2004). Orosius orientalis also transmits Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TYDV; genus Mastrevirus, family Geminiviridae) to beans, causing bean summer death disease (Ballantyne, 1968), and to tobacco, causing tobacco yellow dwarf disease (Hill, 1937, 1941). TYDV has only been recorded in Australia to date. Both diseases result in significant production and quality losses (Ballantyne, 1968; Thomas, 1979; Moran & Rodoni, 1999). Although direct damage caused by leafhopper feeding has been observed, it is relatively minor compared to the losses resulting from disease (P Tr E bicki, unpubl.).