Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Plant functional and phylogenetic turnover correlate with climate and land use in the Western Swiss Alps

Understanding the relative importance of historical and environmental processes in the structure and composition of communities is one of the longest quests in ecological research. Increasingly, researchers are relying on the functional and phylogenetic β-diversity of natural communities to provide concise explanations on the mechanistic basis of community assembly and the drivers of trait variation among species. The present study investigated how plant functional and phylogenetic β-diversity change along key environmental and spatial gradients in the Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using the quadratic diversity measure based on six functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height (H), leaf carbon content (C), leaf nitrogen content (N), and leaf carbon to nitrogen content (C/N) alongside a species-resolved phylogenetic tree, we relate variations in climate, spatial geographic, land use and soil gradients to plant functional and phylogenetic turnover in mountain communities of the Western Swiss Alps. Important findings Our study highlights two main points. First, climate and land use factors play an important role in mountain plant community turnover. Second, the overlap between plant functional and phylogenetic turnover along these gradients correlates with the low phylogenetic signal in traits, suggesting that in mountain landscapes, trait lability is likely an important factor in driving plant community assembly. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of climate and land use factors in plant functional and phylogenetic community turnover, and provide valuable complementary insights into understanding patterns of β-diversity along several ecological gradients.

Chemical and mineralogical changes in a Brazilian Rhodic Paleudult under different land use and managements

Changes in land use and management can affect the dynamic equilibrium of soil systems and induce chemical and mineralogical alterations. This study was based on two long-term experiments (10 and 27 years) to evaluate soil used for no-tillage maize cultivation, with and without poultry litter application (NTPL and NTM), and with grazed native pasture fertilized with cattle droppings (GrP), on the chemical and mineralogical characteristics of a Rhodic Paleudult in Southern Brazil, in comparison with the same soil under native grassland (NGr). In the four treatments, soil was sampled from the 0.0-2.5 and 2.5-5.0 cm layers. In the air-dried fine soil (ADFS) fraction (∅ < 2 mm), chemical characteristics of solid and liquid phases and the specific surface area (SSA) were evaluated. The clay fraction (∅ < 0.002 mm) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) after treatments for identification and characterization of 2:1 clay minerals. Animal waste application increased the total organic C concentration (COT) and specific surface area (SSA) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer. In comparison to NGr, poultry litter application (NTPL) increased the concentrations of Ca and CECpH7, while cattle droppings (GrP) increased the P and K concentrations. In the soil solution, the concentration of dissolved organic C was positively related with COT levels. With regard to NGr, the soil use with crops (NTM and NTPL) had practically no effect on the chemical elements in solution. On the other hand, the concentrations of most chemical elements in solution were higher in GrP, especially of Fe, Al and Si. The Fe and Al concentrations in the soil iron oxides were lower, indicating reductive/complexive dissolution of crystalline forms. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of clay in the GrP environment showed a decrease in intensity and reflection area of the 2:1 clay minerals. This fact, along with the intensified Al and Si activity in soil solution indicate dissolution of clay minerals in soil under cattle-grazed pasture fertilized with animal droppings.

Natural regeneration in abandoned fields following intensive agricultural land use in an Atlantic Forest Island, Brazil

The time required to regrowth a forest in degraded areas depends on how the forest is removed and on the type of land use following removal. Natural regeneration was studied in abandoned old fields after intensive agricultural land use in areas originally covered by Brazilian Atlantic Forests of the Anchieta Island, Brazil in order to understand how plant communities reassemble following human disturbances as well as to determine suitable strategies of forest restoration. The fields were classified into three vegetation types according to the dominant plant species in: 1) Miconia albicans (Sw.) Triana (Melastomataceae) fields, 2) Dicranopteris flexuosa (Schrader) Underw. (Gleicheniaceae) thickets, and 3) Gleichenella pectinata (Willd.) Ching. (Gleicheniaceae) thickets. Both composition and structure of natural regeneration were compared among the three dominant vegetation types by establishing randomly three plots of 1 x 3 m in five sites of the island. A gradient in composition and abundance of species in natural regeneration could be observed along vegetation types from Dicranopteris fern thickets to Miconia fields. The gradient did not accurately follow the pattern of spatial distribution of the three dominant vegetation types in the island regarding their proximity of the remnant forests. A complex association of biotic and abiotic factors seems to be affecting the seedling recruitment and establishment in the study plots. The lowest plant regeneration found in Dicranopteris and Gleichenella thickets suggests that the ferns inhibit the recruitment of woody and herbaceous species. Otherwise, we could not distinguish different patterns of tree regeneration among the three vegetation types. Our results showed that forest recovery following severe anthropogenic disturbances is not direct, predictable or even achievable on its own. Appropriated actions and methods such as fern removal, planting ground covers, and enrichment planting with tree species were suggested in order to restore the natural forest regeneration process in the abandoned old fields.

Studies on rainfall variability and the influence of orography and land use on the climate of Peninsular India

The present study helped to understand the trend in rainfall patterns at smaller spatial scales and the large regional differences in the variability of rainfall. The effect of land use and orography on the diurnal variability is also understood. But a better understanding on the long term variation in rainfall is possible by using a longer dataset,which may provide insight into the rainfall variation over country during the past century. The basic mechanism behind the interannual rainfall variability would be possible with numerical studies using coupled Ocean-Atmosphere models. The regional difference in the active-break conditions points to the significance of regional studies than considering India as a single unit. The underlying dynamics of diurnal variability need to be studied by making use of a high resolution model as the present study could not simulate the local onshore circulation. Also the land use modification in this study, selected a region, which is surrounded by crop land. This implies the high possibility for the conversion of the remaining region to agricultural land. Therefore the study is useful than considering idealized conditions, but the adverse effect of irrigated crop is more than non-irrigated crop. Therefore, such studies would help to understand the climate changes occurred in the recent period. The large accumulation of rainfall between 300-600 m height of western Ghats has been found but the reason behind this need to be studied, which is possible by utilizing datasets that would better represent the orography and landuse over the region in high resolution model. Similarly a detailed analysis is needed to clearly identify the causative relations of the predictors identified with the predictant and the physical reasons behind them. New approaches that include nonlinear relationships and dynamical variables from model simulations can be included in the existing statistical models to improve the skill of the models. Also the statistical models for the forecasts of monsoon have to be continually updated.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arthropod diversity and community structure in relation to land use in the mekong delta, vietnam

Declining biodiversity in agro-ecosystems, caused by intensification of production or expansion of monocultures, is associated with the emergence of agricultural pests. Understanding how land-use and management control crop-associated biodiversity is, therefore, one of the key steps towards the prediction and maintenance of natural pest-control. Here we report on relationships between land-use variables and arthropod community attributes (for example, species diversity, abundance and guild structure) across a diversification gradient in a rice-dominated landscape in the Mekong delta, Vietnam. We show that rice habitats contained the most diverse arthropod communities, compared with other uncultivated and cultivated land-use types. In addition, arthropod species density and Simpson's diversity in flower, vegetable and fruit habitats was positively related to rice cover in the local landscape. However, across the landscape as a whole, reduction in heterogeneity and the amount of uncultivated cover was associated, generally, with a loss of diversity. Furthermore, arthropod species density in tillering and flowering stages of rice was positively related to crop and vegetation richness, respectively, in the local landscape. Differential effects on feeding guilds were also observed in rice-associated communities with the proportional abundance of predators increasing and the proportional abundance of detritivores decreasing with increased landscape rice cover. Thus, we identify a range of rather complex, sometimes contradictory patterns concerning the impact of rice cover and landscape heterogeneity on arthropod community attributes. Importantly, we conclude that that land-use change associated with expansion of monoculture rice need not automatically impact diversity and functioning of the arthropod community.

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of the relationship between roads, relief, land use, and natural vegetation in the Ibiuna Plateau - SP, focusing on landscape ecology

Roads facilitate access by deforestation agents, being relevant in studies approaching conservationist matters in rainforests. It is important to understand the relationship between road distribution, relief, land use, and forest coverage in order to evaluate where forests are more vulnerable. This study aimed at: 1) understanding the relationship between relief and density and road connectivity in three moments in time; and 2) evaluating the relationship between distance from roads and forest coverage, farmlands and rural and urban facilities in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape in three moments in time. Maps of roads, altitude, and land use and coverage were used. Chi-square tests showed that: 1) density and road connectivity did not present significant relationship with the relief; and 2) forest areas occupy areas distant from the roads, while farmlands and rural and urban facilities occupy areas nearer the roads. Roads and land use, regardless of relief, influence forest coverage distribution. Thus, we suggest that roads are taken into account in conservationist strategies and environmental planning.

Precolumbian land use and settlement pattern in the Santarém region, lower Amazon

Uma das áreas mais promissoras para o estudo das sociedades pré-colombianas complexas na bacia do rio Amazonas é a área do baixo curso dos rios Tapajós, Trombetas e Nhamundá. Há relatos escritos sobre os Konduri e os Tapajós, apresentando informações sobre a sua organização social regional, padrões de comércio, a abundância de alimentos, e o mundo material. Assim, evidências arqueológicas – sítios imensos, solos antrópicos, e belos artefatos – podem ser contrastadas com a informação escrita. Estes ricos depósitos culturais estão desaparecendo a um ritmo alarmante, à medida em que os centros urbanos crescem e se expande a agricultura na região. Apesar desta situação, pouca pesquisa arqueológica tem sido realizada na área, especialmente quando se trata de investigar os antigos padrões de assentamento e redes de trocas. Nos últimos anos, temos realizado pesquisas na bacia do baixo rio Tapajós. O registro arqueológico indica que a cerâmica mostrando forte semelhança estilística forte com a encontrada no grande sítio central está espalhada por pelo menos 90 quilômetros ao sul da presente cidade de Santarém. Este artigo apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa regional realizada nas proximidades de Santarém, no planalto de Belterra e Alter do Chão, oferecendo uma análise preliminar do sistema de assentamentos na região.

Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO42-, PO43-, HCO3-) in streams in the state of Sao Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

NATURAL REGENERATION IN ABANDONED FIELDS FOLLOWING INTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL LAND USE IN AN ATLANTIC FOREST ISLAND, BRAZIL

The time required to regrowth a forest in degraded areas depends on how the forest is removed and on the type of land use following removal. Natural regeneration was studied in abandoned old fields after intensive agricultural land use in areas originally covered by Brazilian Atlantic Forests of the Anchieta Island, Brazil in order to understand how plant communities reassemble following human disturbances as well as to determine suitable strategies of forest restoration. The fields were classified into three vegetation types according to the dominant plant species in: 1) Miconia albicans (Sw.) Triana (Melastomataceae) fields, 2) Dicranopteris flexuosa (Schrader) Underw. (Gleicheniaceae) thickets, and 3) Gleichenella pectinata (Willd.) Ching. (Gleicheniaceae) thickets. Both composition and structure of natural regeneration were compared among the three dominant vegetation types by establishing randomly three plots of 1 x 3 m in five sites of the island. A gradient in composition and abundance of species in natural regeneration could be observed along vegetation types from Dicranopteris fern thickets to Miconia fields. The gradient did not accurately follow the pattern of spatial distribution of the three dominant vegetation types in the island regarding their proximity of the remnant forests. A complex association of biotic and abiotic factors seems to be affecting the seedling recruitment and establishment in the study plots. The lowest plant regeneration found in Dicranopteris and Gleichenella thickets suggests that the ferns inhibit the recruitment of woody and herbaceous species. Otherwise, we could not distinguish different patterns of tree regeneration among the three vegetation types. Our results showed that forest recovery following severe anthropogenic disturbances is not direct, predictable or even achievable on its own. Appropriated actions and methods such as fern removal, planting ground covers, and enrichment planting with tree species were suggested in order to restore the natural forest regeneration process in the abandoned old fields.