Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane

Objective To assess the effects of the 2011 floods in Brisbane, Australia, on residents’ physical and mental health. Methods Residents who had been affected by the floods completed a community-based survey that examined the direct impact of flooding on households and their perceived physical and mental health. Outcome variables included overall and respiratory health and mental health outcomes related to psychological distress, sleep quality, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and perceived health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and sociodemographic factors. Results Residents whose households were directly affected by flooding were more likely to report poor overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 5.3; 95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and respiratory (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.6) health, psychological distress (OR 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5), poor sleep quality (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.5). Conclusions The 2011 Brisbane floods had significant impact on the physical and psychosocial health of residents. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts, particularly those related to mental health.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

What is coastal climate?

Historical definitions of what determines whether one lives in a coastal area or not have varied over time. According to Culliton (1998), a “coastal county” is defined as a county with at least 15% of its total land area located within a nation’s coastal watershed. This emphasizes the land areas within which water flows into the ocean or Great Lakes, but may be better suited for ecosystems or water quality research (Crowell et al. 2007). Some Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) documents suggest that “coastal” includes shoreline-adjacent coastal counties, and perhaps even counties impacted by flooding from coastal storms. An accurate definition of “coastal” is critical in this regard since FEMA uses such definitions to revise and modernize their Flood Insurance Rate Maps (Crowell et al. 2007). A recent map published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Services Center for the Coastal Change Analysis Program shows that the “coastal” boundary covers the entire state of New York and Michigan, while nearly all of South Carolina is considered “coastal.” The definition of “coastal” one chooses can have major implications, including a simple count of coastal population and the influence of local or state coastal policies. There is, however, one aspect of defining what is “coastal” that has often been overlooked; using atmospheric long-term climate variables to define the inland extent of the coastal zone. This definition, which incorporates temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity, is furthermore scalable and globally applicable - even in the face of shifting shorelines. A robust definition using common climate variables should condense the large broad definition often associated with “coastal” such that completely landlocked locations would no longer be considered “coastal.” Moreover, the resulting definition, “coastal climate” or “climatology of the coast”, will help coastal resource managers make better-informed decisions on a wide range of climatologically-influenced issues. The following sections outline the methodology employed to derive some new maps of coastal boundaries in the United States. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Using drift nets to capture early life stages and monitor spawning of the Yangtze River Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis)

P>A sampling system for capturing sturgeon eggs using a D-shaped bottom anchored drift net was used to capture early life stages (ELS) of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis, and monitor annual spawning success at Yichang on the Yangtze River, 1996-2004, before and just after the Three Gorges Dam began operation. Captured were 96 875 ELS (early life stages: eggs, yolk-sac larvae = eleuthero embryos, and larvae); most were eggs and only 2477 were yolk-sac larvae. Most ELS were captured in the main river channel and inside the bend at the Yichang spawning reach. Yolk-sac larvae were captured for a maximum of 3 days after hatching began, indicating quick dispersal downstream. The back-calculated day of egg fertilization over the eight years indicated a maximum spawning window of 23 days (20 October-10 November). Spawning in all years was restricted temporally, occurred mostly at night and during one or two spawning periods, each lasting several days. The brief temporal spawning window may reduce egg predation by opportunistic predators by flooding the river bottom with millions of eggs. During 1996-2002, the percentage of fertilized eggs in an annual 20-egg sample was between 63.5 to 94.1%; however, in 2003 the percentage fertilized was only 23.8%. This sudden decline may be related to the altered environmental conditions at Yichang caused by operation of the Three Gorges Dam. Further studies are needed to monitor spawning and changes in egg fertilization in this threatened population.

对渭北地区集雨灌溉的思考——以富平县底店乡“窖灌农业”示范区为例

合理高效地利用雨水资源对西北干旱半干旱地区尤其是地表水缺乏地下水不易利用地区的经济发展具有十分重要的意义。基于此 ,我们在陕西省“窖灌农业”试验示范基地对蓄水设施的修筑、运行、维护及水质、雨水利用现状等进行了调研和考察 ,指出了其存在的问题、解决措施及进一步发展的思路 ,为该地及整个渭北地区雨水集流灌溉的进一步发展提供指导和参考

On the Impact of Low-Rate Attacks

Recent research have exposed new breeds of attacks that are capable of denying service or inflicting significant damage to TCP flows, without sustaining the attack traffic. Such attacks are often referred to as "low-rate" attacks and they stand in sharp contrast against traditional Denial of Service (DoS) attacks that can completely shut off TCP flows by flooding an Internet link. In this paper, we study the impact of these new breeds of attacks and the extent to which defense mechanisms are capable of mitigating the attack's impact. Through adopting a simple discrete-time model with a single TCP flow and a nonoblivious adversary, we were able to expose new variants of these low-rate attacks that could potentially have high attack potency per attack burst. Our analysis is focused towards worst-case scenarios, thus our results should be regarded as upper bounds on the impact of low-rate attacks rather than a real assessment under a specific attack scenario.

The hydraulics and resulting bed scour within the vicinity of Submerged Single Span Arch Bridges

As a consequence of climate change there is now a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events where, with higher rates of urbanisation, the built environment has become increasingly affected by flooding.. This is of particular importance in relation to the stability of bridge structures that span rivers and canals etc. In November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The rainfall was logged as the highest level of rainfall ever recorded within the UK, and as a direct consequence, unprecedented flooding occurred in Cumbria. This flooding led to the collapse of three road bridges which were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, with relatively shallow foundations. In the UK, knowledge of the combined effect of bridge scouring and inundation has been not been particularly widely studied. Research carried out by Hamill et al [1] considered the hydraulic analysis of single arch bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to scouring. Prior to this, Bierry and Delleur [2] produced a classic paper in predicting the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focussing on predicting afflux as opposed to bridge scour. Further work on backwater effects was carried out by Martin-Vide & Prio [3] in semi-circular arch bridges. Both pressurized and free-surface flows at the bridge were investigated. Flows on a mobile bed in clear-water conditions were compared to those with a rigid bed, but no predictive equation for scour under pressurised conditions was considered. This paper will present initial findings from an experimental investigation into the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of clear water scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented, where results will be correlated to the most recent predictive equations that are proposed.

Revestimentos compatíveis para alvenarias antigas sujeitas a ação severa da água

Uma das maiores causas de degradação dos revestimentos é a presença de sais solúveis, tanto nas zonas costeiras como nas zonas continentais. Estes sais podem ter origens distintas, tais como: humidade ascensional, nevoeiro salino, inundações ou ainda estarem presentes nos próprios materiais, como é o caso da utilização de areias mal lavadas. O local onde os sais cristalizam é dependente do tipo de transporte entre a alvenaria e o revestimento, assim como da severidade da envolvente ambiental (temperatura e humidade relativa). Com esta tese pretende-se desenvolver revestimentos de substituição compatíveis, eficazes e duráveis para alvenarias antigas sujeitas à ação severa da água (humidade ascensional através das fundações com elevada concentração de NaCl); desenvolver ensaios de envelhecimento acelerado baseados em ciclos de dissolução e cristalização que permitam simular a ação severa da água; perceber a influência de revestimentos com caraterísticas extremas de permeabilidade ao vapor de água aplicados nas duas faces do mesmo suporte (argamassas de cimento e resina versus argamassas de cal), e sujeitos à ação severa da água; perceber a influência de vários fatores, tais como : rasgos verticais contínuos executados no emboço e a utilização de hidrófugo no reboco no desempenho dos vários sistemas de revestimento desenvolvidos, quando sujeitos à ação severa da água;; utilizar a remoção eletrocinética de sais, em provetes simulando a influência da alvenaria e dos revestimentos, com o objetivo de reduzir a sua concentração de NaCl, para que no futuro possa ser aplicado de forma eficaz em paredes de edifícios antigos, enquanto ação de manutenção, e desta forma aumentar a durabilidade dos revestimentos. Para atingir os objetivos descritos, foram considerados: i) o desenvolvimento de provetes que permitam considerar os sistemas de revestimento desenvolvidos nesta tese e o suporte, e que simulem uma alvenaria revestida em ambas as faces, e com os quais seja possível a simulação da ação severa da água em laboratório e, ii) o desenvolvimento ciclos de dissolução e cristalização numa parede de grandes dimensões existente em laboratório, que permitam simular a ação severa da água em condições tão reais quanto possível. O objetivo final deste estudo é o desenvolvimento de um revestimento de substituição denominado “emboço ventilado” para paredes de edifícios antigos com revestimentos degradados devido à presença de humidade ascensional e sais solúveis. Pretende-se que este sistema de revestimento, composto por duas camadas de revestimento (camada base e reboco), seja compatível, durável e eficaz, e que funcione como um sistema de acumulação no qual os sais cristalizem na camada base do sistema de revestimento (executada com rasgos verticais) e não na alvenaria ou na camada exterior.

Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

Building resilience in the face of recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel

The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.

Resposta de cultivares de arroz de sequeiro ao preparo do solo e à irrigação por aspersão

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Manejo da água e utilização de oxyfluorfen no controle de plantas daninhas na cultura do arroz irrigado no sistema pré-germinado

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Índice de capacidade do processo na avaliação da irrigação por aspersão

Analisar a qualidade da irrigação, além de avaliar seu bom funcionamento, é uma forma de verificar a viabilidade de sua implantação e operação. Como a uniformidade de distribuição é um dos parâmetros mais utilizados para essa avaliação, este trabalho objetivou utilizar técnicas de engenharia de qualidade, usando o índice de capacidade do processo (Cpl) para avaliar a uniformidade de distribuição de água em um sistema de irrigação por aspersão convencional. Os ensaios foram conduzidos no Núcleo Experimental de Engenharia Agrícola, UNIOESTE, com dois aspersores modelo Super10, marca NAANDAN, espaçados 9 m entre si, durante 25 irrigações de 1 h cada. Os dados climáticos foram coletados a cada 10 min, por uma estação meteorológica sem fio. Encontraram-se um CUC médio de 79,72% e velocidade do vento média de 1,85 m s-1. Foram aplicados os testes de controle de qualidade, elaborando os gráficos de controle de Shewhart e calculado o índice de capacidade do processo (Cpl), sendo que os resultados obtidos permitem afirmar que a utilização do índice de capacidade do processo torna-se uma ferramenta poderosa para classificar sistemas de irrigação em função de sua uniformidade de distribuição.

Custos da irrigação e receita líquida do feijoeiro em um sistema pivô central sob variação do comprimento da tubulação de recalque e desnível topográfico

Neste trabalho, foi simulado o custo da irrigação de um sistema tipo pivô central com diferentes comprimentos da tubulação de recalque e desníveis topográficos na produção do feijoeiro comum, na região de Ilha Solteira -SP, bem como sua receita líquida. Considerou-se uma área irrigada pelo equipamento de 103,58 ha, sendo sua configuração a mais econômica possível para as variáveis consideradas. A participação da irrigação no custo de produção do feijoeiro variou de 14,8 a 21,5% entre as condições extremas, ou seja, do menor desnível topográfico (40 m) e comprimento da tubulação de recalque (2.000 m) ao maior desnível (80 m) e comprimento (3.000 m). em todas as configurações do sistema de irrigação e com os preços praticados em agosto de 2008 ou com o preço histórico médio, seria viável a cultura do feijoeiro, proporcionando rendas líquidas de até R$ 3.959,64 ha-1 e até R$ 1.203,14 ha-1, respectivamente.

Manejo de irrigação e nitrogênio no feijoeiro comum cultivado em sistema plantio direto

With technological innovations, such as irrigation, the bean has been grown by producers who have the most varied levels of technology that, in suitable times, allows the planting great success in grain yield. The aim of this study was to evaluate the response of the dry bean to different managements of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization with no-tillage system, in Aquidauana - MS, Brazil. The experiment was conducted at the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul (UEMS), with the soil of the area classified as Alfisol, using the bean crop "Perola" sown on June 30, 2007. The experimental design was a randomized block split-plot consisting of three blocks and two replications within each block. The plots were composed of three management of irrigation, by the Class A pan method, using Hargreaves-Samani equation, and management by tensiometry (-40 kPa), with water replacement of 16.5 mm for all irrigation plots. The subplots consisted on four rates of nitrogen fertilization (0; 50; 100 and 150 kg ha(-1)), in which the nitrogen source was urea. It was concluded that the irrigation management through the Class A pan and Hargreaves-Samani equation conduced to higher grain yields of bean, 3031.11 and 3005.02 kg ha(-1) respectively.