Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Diagnosing pulmonary embolism in outpatients with clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, venous ultrasound, and helical computed tomography: a multicenter management study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism that combined clinical assessment, plasma D-dimer measurement, lower limb venous ultrasonography, and helical computed tomography (CT). METHODS: A cohort of 965 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency departments of three general and teaching hospitals with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism underwent sequential noninvasive testing. Clinical probability was assessed by a prediction rule combined with implicit judgment. All patients were followed for 3 months. RESULTS: A normal D-dimer level (<500 microg/L by a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) ruled out venous thromboembolism in 280 patients (29%), and finding a deep vein thrombosis by ultrasonography established the diagnosis in 92 patients (9.5%). Helical CT was required in only 593 patients (61%) and showed pulmonary embolism in 124 patients (12.8%). Pulmonary embolism was considered ruled out in the 450 patients (46.6%) with a negative ultrasound and CT scan and a low-to-intermediate clinical probability. The 8 patients with a negative ultrasound and CT scan despite a high clinical probability proceeded to pulmonary angiography (positive: 2; negative: 6). Helical CT was inconclusive in 11 patients (pulmonary embolism: 4; no pulmonary embolism: 7). The overall prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 23%. Patients classified as not having pulmonary embolism were not anticoagulated during follow-up and had a 3-month thromboembolic risk of 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.1%). CONCLUSION: A noninvasive diagnostic strategy combining clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, ultrasonography, and helical CT yielded a diagnosis in 99% of outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, and appeared to be safe, provided that CT was combined with ultrasonography to rule out the disease.

Environmental management for the control of Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811), (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in Costa Rica: a pilot project

An ecological control method, using environmental management operations, based on biological and behavioral characteristics of Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811), was implemented as a pilot project in an area of Costa Rica where the bug is prevalent. The sample was represented by 20 houses with peridomestic colonies (two also had indoor infestation), divided in two equivalent groups of 10 each. In one group we intervened the houses, i.e. all objects or materials that were serving as artificial ecotopes for the bugs were removed, and the second group was used as control houses. After a year of periodic follow up, it became evident that in those houses with a modified environment the number of insects had decreased notoriously even after the first visits and this was more evident after a period of 12.5 to 13.5 months in which no insects were detected in eight of the houses. It also became clear that in this group of houses, recolonization by wild bugs from the surrounding areas, became more difficult, probably due to the absence of protection from bug predators. In the control houses, with the exception of three in which the inhabitants decided to intervene on their own, and another house with a peculiar situation, the insect populations remained the same or even showed a tendency to increase, as confirmed at the end of the experiment. We believe that the method is feasible, low costing and non contaminating. It could be used successfully in other places where T. dimidiata is common and also in countries where other species colonize peridomestic areas of homes. Environmental management of this kind should seek the participation of the members of the communities, in order to make it a more permanent control measure.

Beyond Smith's rule: An optimal dynamic index, rule for single machine stochastic scheduling with convex holding costs

Most research on single machine scheduling has assumedthe linearity of job holding costs, which is arguablynot appropriate in some applications. This motivates ourstudy of a model for scheduling $n$ classes of stochasticjobs on a single machine, with the objective of minimizingthe total expected holding cost (discounted or undiscounted). We allow general holding cost rates that are separable,nondecreasing and convex on the number of jobs in eachclass. We formulate the problem as a linear program overa certain greedoid polytope, and establish that it issolved optimally by a dynamic (priority) index rule,whichextends the classical Smith's rule (1956) for the linearcase. Unlike Smith's indices, defined for each class, ournew indices are defined for each extended class, consistingof a class and a number of jobs in that class, and yieldan optimal dynamic index rule: work at each time on a jobwhose current extended class has larger index. We furthershow that the indices possess a decomposition property,as they are computed separately for each class, andinterpret them in economic terms as marginal expected cost rate reductions per unit of expected processing time.We establish the results by deploying a methodology recentlyintroduced by us [J. Niño-Mora (1999). "Restless bandits,partial conservation laws, and indexability. "Forthcomingin Advances in Applied Probability Vol. 33 No. 1, 2001],based on the satisfaction by performance measures of partialconservation laws (PCL) (which extend the generalizedconservation laws of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996)):PCL provide a polyhedral framework for establishing theoptimality of index policies with special structure inscheduling problems under admissible objectives, which weapply to the model of concern.

Biology and management of the masked chafer Cyclocephala distincta Burmeister (Melolonthidae, Dynastinae, Cyclocephalini)

Adults of Cyclocephala distincta are flower visitors of Neotropical palms (Arecaceae) and commonly found in the Atlantic Forest of Pernambuco, Brazil. Males and females were collected in the wild and subjected to captive rearing and breeding. The egg hatching rate, the life cycle, longevity of immatures and adults, and oviposition parameters in captivity were analyzed. The average duration of the life cycle of C. distinctawas 108.2 days (n = 45). The egg stage lasted on average 10.9 days, and the egg-hatching rate was 73.9%. The immature stage lasted on average 93.4 days. The larvae stage exhibited negative phototaxis, and the size of their head capsules increased at a constant rate of 1.6 between instars, following Dyar's rule. The average duration of the first instar was 24.8 days (n = 88), whereas the second and third instars lasted for 17.2 (n = 76) and 40.4 (n = 74) days respectively, and survival rates were 21.6%, 86.4% and 97.4%. The pre-pupal stage was recorded, and pupal chambers were built before pupation. The average number of eggs laid per female was 15.5, the total reproductive period lasted for 3.3 days, and the total fertility was 81.2%. Adults that emerged in captivity exhibited an average longevity of 18.9 days. Adult C. distincta exhibited thanatosis behavior upon manipulation, a strategy observed for the first time in Cyclocephala.

Artificial-Intelligence-Based Optimization of the Management of Snow Removal Assets and Resources Final Report, October 2002

Geographic information systems (GIS) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques were used to develop an intelligent snow removal asset management system (SRAMS). The system has been evaluated through a case study examining snow removal from the roads in Black Hawk County, Iowa, for which the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) is responsible. The SRAMS is comprised of an expert system that contains the logical rules and expertise of the Iowa DOT’s snow removal experts in Black Hawk County, and a geographic information system to access and manage road data. The system is implemented on a mid-range PC by integrating MapObjects 2.1 (a GIS package), Visual Rule Studio 2.2 (an AI shell), and Visual Basic 6.0 (a programming tool). The system could efficiently be used to generate prioritized snowplowing routes in visual format, to optimize the allocation of assets for plowing, and to track materials (e.g., salt and sand). A test of the system reveals an improvement in snowplowing time by 1.9 percent for moderate snowfall and 9.7 percent for snowstorm conditions over the current manual system.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Diagnosis and management of blunt great vessel trauma.

Traditionally, thoracic aortic rupture, suspected after blunt thoracic trauma, is characterized by a chest radiograph showing a widened mediastinum. The diagnostic machinery consecutively activated still depends heavily on the pressure as additional traumatic lesions. A patient with additional cranio-cerebral trauma would typically undergo contrast-enhanced computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging of head, chest, and other regions. In a number of patients these analyses would confirm the presence of blood in the mediastinum without formal proof of an aortic disruption. This is because mediastinal hematomas may be caused not only by an aortic rupture, but also by numerous other blood sources including fractures of the spine and other macro- and microvascular lesions providing similar images. Therefore, aortic angiography became our preferred diagnostic tool to identify or rule out acute traumatic lesions of not only the aorta but with great vessels. However recently, a number of traumatic aortic transsections have been identified by transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE). TEE has the additional advantage of being a bed-side procedure providing additional information about cardiac function. The latter analysis allows for identification and quantification of cardiac contusions, post-traumatic myocardial infarctions, and valvar lesions which are of prime importance to develop an adequate surgical strategy and to assess the risk of the numerous emergency procedures required in patients with polytrauma. The standard approach for repair of isthmic aortic rupture is through a lateral thoracotomy. Distal and proximal control of the aorta can be achieved in a substantial number of cases before complete aortic rupture occurs and a higher proportion of direct suture repair can be achieved under such circumstances. Most proximal descending aortic procedures are performed without cardiopulmonary bypass (clamp and go) but paraplegia may occur before, during, or after the procedure. Ascending aortic lesions and disruption of the aortic arch, the supra-aortic vessels, the main pulmonary arteries, the great veins as well as cardiac lesions are best approached through a sternotomy, which may have to be extended. Cardiopulmonary bypass allowing for deep hypothermia and circulatory arrest is often required and carries its own complications. It is not clear whether the increasing proportion of ascending aortic and cardiac lesions which are observed nowadays are due to a change in trauma mechanics (i.e., speed limits, seat belts, air-bags), an improvement of the diagnostic tools or both.

Interoperability of learning objects copyright in the LUISA semantic learning management system

Semantic Web technology is able to provide the required computational semantics for interoperability of learning resources across different Learning Management Systems (LMS) and Learning Object Repositories (LOR). The EU research project LUISA (Learning Content Management System Using Innovative Semantic Web Services Architecture) addresses the development of a reference semantic architecture for the major challenges in the search, interchange and delivery of learning objects in a service-oriented context. One of the key issues, highlighted in this paper, is Digital Rights Management (DRM) interoperability. A Semantic Web approach to copyright management has been followed, which places a Copyright Ontology as the key component for interoperability among existing DRM systems and other licensing schemes like Creative Commons. Moreover, Semantic Web tools like reasoners, rule engines and semantic queries facilitate the implementation of an interoperable copyright management component in the LUISA architecture.

Theorizing Formal and Informal Feedback Practices in Management Accounting Through Three Dimensions

The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to widen and develop our theoretical frameworks for discussion and analyses of feedback practices in management accounting, particularly shedding light on its formal and informal aspects. The concept of feedback in management accounting has conventionally been analyzed within cybernetic control theory, in which feedback flows as a diagnostic or comparative loop between measurable outputs and pre-set goals (see e.g. Flamholtz et al. 1985; Flamholtz 1996, 1983), i.e. as a formal feedback loop. However, the everyday feedback practices in organizations are combinations of formal and informal elements. In addition to technique-driven feedback approaches (like budgets, measurement, and reward systems) we could also categorize social feedback practices that managers see relevant and effective in the pursuit of organizational control. While cybernetics or control theories successfully capture rational and measured aspects of organizational performance and offer a broad organizational context for the analysis, many individual and informal aspects remain vague and isolated. In order to discuss and make sense of the heterogeneous field of interpretations of formal and informal feedback, both in theory and practice, dichotomous approaches seem to be insufficient. Therefore, I suggest an analytical framework of formal and informal feedback with three dimensions (3D’s): source, time, and rule. Based on an abductive analysis of the theoretical and empirical findings from an interpretive case study around a business unit called Division Steelco, the 3Dframework and formal and informal feedback practices are further elaborated vis-á-vis the four thematic layers in the organizational control model by Flamholtz et al. (1985; Flamholtz 1996, 1983): core control system, organizational structure, organizational culture, and external environment. Various personal and cultural meanings given to the formal and informal feedback practices (“feedback as something”) create multidimensional interpretative contexts. Multidimensional frameworks aim to capture and better understand both the variety of interpretations and their implications to the functionality of feedback practices, important in interpretive research.

The management of innovation under ambiguity

De récents développements en théorie de la decision ont largement enrichi notre connaissance de la notion d'incertitude knightienne, usuellement appelée ambiguïté. Néanmoins ces dévelopement tardent à être intégrés au coeur de la théorie économique. Nous suggérons que l'analyse de phénonèmes économiques tel que l'innovation et la Recherche et Développement gagnerait à intégrer les modèles de décision en situation d'ambiguïté. Nous étayons notre propos en analysant l'allocation des droits de propriété d'une découverte. Les deux premières parties de la présentation s'inspire d'un modèle d'Aghion et de Tirole, The Management of Innovation, portant sur l'allocation des droits de propriété entre une unité de recherche et un investisseur. Il est démontré qu'un désaccord entre les agents sur la technologie de recherche affecte leur niveau d'effort, l'allocation des droits de propriété et l'allocation des revenus subséquents. Finalement, nous examinons une situation où plusieurs chercheurs sont en compétition en s'inspirant du traitement de l'incertitude de Savage. La présence d'ambuïgité affecte le comportement des agents et l'allocation des droits de propriétés de manière qui n'est pas captée en assumant l'hypothèse de risque.

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) of Water Resources Management in West Sumatra, Indonesia

This study was aim to describe the indigenous knowledge of farmers at Nagari Padang laweh Malalo (NPLM) and their adaptability to climate change. Not only the water scarcity is feared, but climate change is also affecting their food security. Local food security can be achieved if biodiversity in their surrounding area is suitable to the local needs. The study was conducted by using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) such as observation and discussion. The combination of in depth interview, life history, semi structure questionnaire, pictures, mapping and expert interviews was implemented. Data was analyzed by using MAXQDA 10 and F4 audio analysis software. The result shows awareness of the people and scarcity of water conditions has allowed the people of NPLM to face this challenge with wisdom. Aia adat (water resources controlled and regulate by custom) is one of their strategies to distribute the water. The general rule is that irrigation will flow from 6 pm – 6 am regularly to all farm land under supervision of kapalo banda. When rains occur, water resources can be used during the day without special supervision. They were used traditional knowledge to manage water resources for their land and daily usage. This study may be helpful for researcher and other farmers in different region to learn encounter water scarcity.

Designing the indoor environment for people

Intelligent buildings should provide a multi-sensory experience so that visual, aural, tactile, olfactory and gustatory senses are stimulated appropriately. A lack of environmental stimuli produces a boring and unsatisfying environment. It is now known that the environment affects people at deeper levels than, say, health and safety, and consequently it can modify moods and work performance. A holistic approach is proposed which recognizes that the physical environment together with social, organizational and personal factors can enhance the productivity of occupants. This approach provides a footprint for the design of healthier and more sustainable workplaces.