Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

Association between the increase in brain temperature and physical performance at different exercise intensities and protocols in a temperate environment

There is evidence that brain temperature (Tbrain) provides a more sensitive index than other core body temperatures in determining physical performance. However, no study has addressed whether the association between performance and increases in Tbrain in a temperate environment is dependent upon exercise intensity, and this was the primary aim of the present study. Adult male Wistar rats were subjected to constant exercise at three different speeds (18, 21, and 24 m/min) until the onset of volitional fatigue. Tbrain was continuously measured by a thermistor inserted through a brain guide cannula. Exercise induced a speed-dependent increase in Tbrain, with the fastest speed associated with a higher rate of Tbrain increase. Rats subjected to constant exercise had similar Tbrain values at the time of fatigue, although a pronounced individual variability was observed (38.7-41.7°C). There were negative correlations between the rate of Tbrain increase and performance for all speeds that were studied. These results indicate that performance during constant exercise is negatively associated with the increase in Tbrain, particularly with its rate of increase. We then investigated how an incremental-speed protocol affected the association between the increase in Tbrain and performance. At volitional fatigue, Tbrain was lower during incremental exercise compared with the Tbrain resulting from constant exercise (39.3±0.3 vs 40.3±0.1°C; P<0.05), and no association between the rate of Tbrain increase and performance was observed. These findings suggest that the influence of Tbrain on performance under temperate conditions is dependent on exercise protocol.

Rheological behavior of Brazilian Cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) pulp at pasteurization temperatures

The rheological behavior of Brazilian Cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) pulp in the range of temperatures used for pasteurization (83 to 97 °C) was studied. The results indicated that Brazilian Cherry pulp presented pseudoplastic behavior, and the Herschel-Bulkley model was considered more adequate to represent the rheological behavior of this pulp in the range of temperatures studied. The fluid behavior index (n) varied in the range from 0.448 to 0.627. The effect of temperature on the apparent viscosity was described by an equation analogous to Arrhenius equation, and a decrease in apparent viscosity with an increase in temperature was observed.

Effect of diurnal cycling temperatures on cardiovascular- ventilatory function in statically-acclimated rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

Four groups of rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, were acclimated to 2°, 10°, and 18°e, and to a diurnal temperature cycle (100 ± 4°C). To evaluate the influence of cycling temperatures in terms of an immediate as opposed to acclimatory response various ventilatory-cardiovascular rate functions were observed for trout, either acclimated to cycling temperatures or acclimated to constant temperatures and exposed to a diurnal temperature cycle for the first time (10° ± 4°C for trout acclimated to 10°C; 18°+ 4°C for trout acclimated to l8°e). Gill resistance and the cardiac to ventilatory rate ratio were then calculated. Following a post preparatory recovery period of 36 hr, measurements were made over a 48 hour period with the first 24 hours being at constant temperature in the case of statically-acclimated fish followed by 24 hours under cyclic temperature conditions. Trout exhibited marked changes in oxygen consumption (Vo ) with temp- 2 erature both between acclimation groups, and in response to the diurnal temperature cycle. This increase in oxygen uptake appears to have been achieved by adjustment of ventilatory and, to some extent, cardiovascular activity. Trout exhibited significant changes in ventilatory rate (VR), stroke volume (Vsv), and flow (VG) in response to temperature. Marked changes in cardiac rate were also observed. These findings are discussed in relation to their importance in convective oxygen transport via water and blood at the gills and tissues. Trout also exhibited marked changes in pressure waveforms associated with the action of the resp; ratory pumps with temperature. Mean differenti a 1 pressure increased with temperature as did gill resistance and utilization. This data is discussed in relation to its importance in diffusive oxygen transport and the conditions for gas exchange at the gills. With one exception, rainbow trout were able to respond to changes in oxygen demand and availability associated with changes in temperature by means of adjustments in ventilation, and possibly pafusion, and the conditions for gas exchange at the gills. Trout acclimated to 18°C, however, and exposed to high cyclic temperatures, showed signs of the ventilatory and cardiovascular distress problems commonly associated with low circulating levels of oxygen in the blood. It appears these trout were unable to fully meet the oxygen requirements associated with c~ling temperatures above 18°C. These findings were discussed in relation to possible limitations in the cardiovascular-ventilatory response at high temperatures. The response of trout acclimated to cycling temperatures was generally similar to that for trout acclimated to constant temperatures and exposed to cycling temperatures for the first time. This result suggested that both groups of fish may have been acclimated to a similar thermal range, regardless of the acclimation regime employed. Such a phenomenon would allow trout of either acclimation group to respond equally well to the imposed temperature cycle. Rainbow trout showed no evidence of significant diurnal rhythm in any parameters observed at constant temperatures (2°, 10°, and 18° C), and under a 12/12 light-dark photoperiod regime. This was not taken to indicate an absence of circadian rhythms in these trout, but rather a deficiency in the recording methods used in the study.

The effects of the menstrual cycle and hormonal contraceptives on the central thermoeffector threshold temperatures and width of the interthreshold zone

Basal body temperature (BBT) and thermoeffector thresholds increase following ovulation in many women. This study investigated if solely central thermoregulatory alterations are responsible. Seven females in a non-contraceptive group (NCG) were compared with 5 monophasic contraceptive users (HCG) on separate accounts: pre-ovulation (Trial I; d 2-5) and post-ovulation (Trial 2; 4-8 d post-positive ovulation) for NCG, and active phase for HCG (d 2-5, d 18-21). During immersion in 28°C water to the axilla, participants exercised for 20-30 min on an underwater ergometer. After steadily sweating, immersion continued until metabolism increased two-fold due to shivering. Rectal (Tre) BBT was not different between trials for neither NCG (1: 37.34±0.16°C; 2: 37.35±0.27°C) nor HCG. At exercise termination, Tre forehead sweating cessation increased (P<0.05) in trial 2 irrespective of group (1: 37.55±0.39°C; 2: 37.90±0,46°C). Tre shivering onset did not increase (P>0.05) in trial 2 (1: 36.91±0.50°C; 2: 37.07±0,45°C). The widths of the interthreshold zone increased (P<0.05) in trial 2 (1: 0.64±0.22°C; 2: 0.82±0.37°C) due to the increased sweating threshold only. HCG cooled quicker (1: -l.15±0,43°C; 2: -1.00±0.50°C) than NCG participants (1: - 0.58±0.22°C; 2: -0.52±O.29°C), and tympanic (Tty) sweat thresholds were significantly (P<0.05) decreased (1: 34.76±0.54°C; 2: 35.39±0.61°C) versus NCG (l: 35.57±0.77°C; 2: 35.89±1.04°C). Lastly, Tre and Tty thresholds were significantly different (P

Behavior of geopolymer concrete exposed to elevated temperatures

The research in the area of geopolymer is gaining momentum during the past 20 years. Studies confirm that geopolymer concrete has good compressive strength, tensile strength, flexural strength, modulus of elasticity and durability. These properties are comparable with OPC concrete.There are many occasions where concrete is exposed to elevated temperatures like fire exposure from thermal processor, exposure from furnaces, nuclear exposure, etc.. In such cases, understanding of the behaviour of concrete and structural members exposed to elevated temperatures is vital. Even though many research reports are available about the behaviour of OPC concrete at elevated temperatures, there is limited information available about the behaviour of geopolymer concrete after exposure to elevated temperatures. A preliminary study was carried out for the selection of a mix proportion. The important variable considered in the present study include alkali/fly ash ratio, percentage of total aggregate content, fine aggregate to total aggregate ratio, molarity of sodium hydroxide, sodium silicate to sodium hydroxide ratio, curing temperature and curing period. Influence of different variables on engineering properties of geopolymer concrete was investigated. The study on interface shear strength of reinforced and unreinforced geopolymer concrete as well as OPC concrete was also carried out. Engineering properties of fly ash based geopolymer concrete after exposure to elevated temperatures (ambient to 800 °C) were studied and the corresponding results were compared with those of conventional concrete. Scanning Electron Microscope analysis, Fourier Transform Infrared analysis, X-ray powder Diffractometer analysis and Thermogravimetric analysis of geopolymer mortar or paste at ambient temperature and after exposure to elevated temperature were also carried out in the present research work. Experimental study was conducted on geopolymer concrete beams after exposure to elevated temperatures (ambient to 800 °C). Load deflection characteristics, ductility and moment-curvature behaviour of the geopolymer concrete beams after exposure to elevated temperatures were investigated. Based on the present study, major conclusions derived could be summarized as follows. There is a definite proportion for various ingredients to achieve maximum strength properties. Geopolymer concrete with total aggregate content of 70% by volume, ratio of fine aggregate to total aggregate of 0.35, NaOH molarity 10, Na2SiO3/NaOH ratio of 2.5 and alkali to fly ash ratio of 0.55 gave maximum compressive strength in the present study. An early strength development in geopolymer concrete could be achieved by the proper selection of curing temperature and the period of curing. With 24 hours of curing at 100 °C, 96.4% of the 28th day cube compressive strength could be achieved in 7 days in the present study. The interface shear strength of geopolymer concrete is lower to that of OPC concrete. Compared to OPC concrete, a reduction in the interface shear strength by 33% and 29% was observed for unreinforced and reinforced geopolymer specimens respectively. The interface shear strength of geopolymer concrete is lower than ordinary Portland cement concrete. The interface shear strength of geopolymer concrete can be approximately estimated as 50% of the value obtained based on the available equations for the calculation of interface shear strength of ordinary portland cement concrete (method used in Mattock and ACI). Fly ash based geopolymer concrete undergoes a high rate of strength loss (compressive strength, tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) during its early heating period (up to 200 °C) compared to OPC concrete. At a temperature exposure beyond 600 °C, the unreacted crystalline materials in geopolymer concrete get transformed into amorphous state and undergo polymerization. As a result, there is no further strength loss (compressive strength, tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) in geopolymer concrete, whereas, OPC concrete continues to lose its strength properties at a faster rate beyond a temperature exposure of 600 °C. At present no equation is available to predict the strength properties of geopolymer concrete after exposure to elevated temperatures. Based on the study carried out, new equations have been proposed to predict the residual strengths (cube compressive strength, split tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) of geopolymer concrete after exposure to elevated temperatures (upto 800 °C). These equations could be used for material modelling until better refined equations are available. Compared to OPC concrete, geopolymer concrete shows better resistance against surface cracking when exposed to elevated temperatures. In the present study, while OPC concrete started developing cracks at 400 °C, geopolymer concrete did not show any visible cracks up to 600 °C and developed only minor cracks at an exposure temperatureof 800 °C. Geopolymer concrete beams develop crack at an early load stages if they are exposed to elevated temperatures. Even though the material strength of the geopolymer concrete does not decrease beyond 600 °C, the flexural strength of corresponding beam reduces rapidly after 600 °C temperature exposure, primarily due to the rapid loss of the strength of steel. With increase in temperature, the curvature at yield point of geopolymer concrete beam increases and thereby the ductility reduces. In the present study, compared to the ductility at ambient temperature, the ductility of geopolymer concrete beams reduces by 63.8% at 800 °C temperature exposure. Appropriate equations have been proposed to predict the service load crack width of geopolymer concrete beam exposed to elevated temperatures. These equations could be used to limit the service load on geopolymer concrete beams exposed to elevated temperatures (up to 800 °C) for a predefined crack width (between 0.1mm and 0.3 mm) or vice versa. The moment-curvature relationship of geopolymer concrete beams at ambient temperature is similar to that of RCC beams and this could be predicted using strain compatibility approach Once exposed to an elevated temperature, the strain compatibility approach underestimates the curvature of geopolymer concrete beams between the first cracking and yielding point.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 in onion (Allium cepa) grown at a range of temperatures

Onion (Allium cepa) was grown in the field within temperature gradient tunnels (providing about -2.5degreesC to +2.5degreesC from outside temperatures) maintained at either 374 or 532 mumol mol(-1) CO2. Plant leaf area was determined non-destructively at 7 day intervals until the time of bulbing in 12 combinations of temperature and CO2 concentration. Gas exchange was measured in each plot at the time of bulbing, and the carbohydrate content of the leaf (source) and bulb (sink) was determined. Maximum rate of leaf area expansion increased with mean temperature. Leaf area duration and maximum rate of leaf area expansion were not significantly affected by CO2. The light-saturated rates of leaf photosynthesis (A(sat)) were greater in plants grown at normal than at elevated CO2 concentrations at the same measurement CO2 concentration. Acclimation of photosynthesis decreased with an increase in growth temperature, and with an increase in leaf nitrogen content at elevated CO2. The ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (C-i/C-a ratio) was 7.4% less for plants grown at elevated compared with normal CO2. A(sat) in plants grown at elevated CO2 was less than in plants grown at normal CO2 when compared at the same C-i Hence, acclimation of photosynthesis was due both to stomatal acclimation and to limitations to biochemical CO2 fixation. Carbohydrate content of the onion bulbs was greater at elevated than at normal CO2. In contrast, carbohydrate content was less at elevated compared with normal CO2 in the leaf sections in which CO2 exchange was measured at the same developmental stage. Therefore, acclimation of photosynthesis in fully expanded onion leaves was detected despite the absence of localised carbohydrate accumulation in these field-grown crops.

Acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated CO2 in onion (allium cepa) grown at a range of temperatures

Onion (Allium cepa) was grown in the field within temperature gradient tunnels (providing about -2.5 degrees C to +2.5 degrees C from outside temperatures) maintained at either 374 or 532 mumol mol (-1) CO2. Plant leaf area was determined non-destructively at 7 day intervals until the time of bulbing in 12 combinations of temperature and CO2 concentration. Gas exchange was measured in each plot at the time of bulbing, and the carbohydrate content of the leaf (source) and bulb (sink) was determined. Maximum rate of leaf area expansion increased with mean temperature. Leaf area duration and maximum rate of leaf area expansion were not significantly affected by CO2. The light-saturated rates of leaf photosynthesis (A(sat)) were greater in plants grown at normal than at elevated CO2 concentrations at the same measurement CO2 concentration. Acclimation of photosynthesis decreased with an increase in growth temperature, and with an increase in leaf nitrogen content at elevated CO2. The ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (C-i/C-a ratio) was 7.4% less for plants grown at elevated compared with normal CO2. A(sat) in plants grown at elevated CO2 was less than in plants grown at normal CO2 when compared at the same C-i Hence, acclimation of photosynthesis was due both to stomatal acclimation and to limitations to biochemical CO2 fixation. Carbohydrate content of the onion bulbs was greater at elevated than at normal CO2. In contrast, carbohydrate content was less at elevated compared with normal CO2 in the leaf sections in which CO2 exchange was measured at the same developmental stage. Therefore, acclimation of photosynthesis in fully expanded onion leaves was detected despite the absence of localised carbohydrate accumulation in these field-grown crops.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

The potential impact of changes in lower stratospheric water vapour on stratospheric temperatures over the past 30 years

This study investigates the potential contribution of observed changes in lower stratospheric water vapour to stratospheric temperature variations over the past three decades using a comprehensive global climate model (GCM). Three case studies are considered. In the first, the net increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) from 1980–2010 (derived from the Boulder frost-point hygrometer record using the gross assumption that this is globally representative) is estimated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to ∼0.2 K decade−1 in the global and annual mean; this is ∼40% of the observed cooling trend over this period. In the Arctic winter stratosphere there is a dynamical response to the increase in SWV, with enhanced polar cooling of 0.6 K decade−1 at 50 hPa and warming of 0.5 K decade−1 at 1 hPa. In the second case study, the observed decrease in tropical lower stratospheric water vapour after the year 2000 (imposed in the GCM as a simplified representation of the observed changes derived from satellite data) is estimated to have caused a relative increase in tropical lower stratospheric temperatures by ∼0.3 K at 50 hPa. In the third case study, the wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex (again using a simplified representation of the changes seen in a satellite dataset) is estimated to cause a relative warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere by up to 1 K at 100 hPa from July–October. This is accompanied by a weakening of the westerly winds on the poleward flank of the stratospheric jet by up to 1.5 m s−1 in the GCM. The results show that, if the measurements are representative of global variations, SWV should be considered as important a driver of transient and long-term variations in lower stratospheric temperature over the past 30 years as increases in long-lived greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Measuring ion temperatures and studying the ion energy balance in the high-latitude ionosphere

Data are presented for a nighttime ion heating event observed by the EISCAT radar on 16 December 1988. In the experiment, the aspect angle between the radar beam and the geomagnetic field was fixed at 54.7°, which avoids any ambiguity in derived ion temperature caused by anisotropy in the ion velocity distribution function. The data were analyzed with an algorithm which takes account of the non-Maxwellian line-of-sight ion velocity distribution. During the heating event, the derived spectral distortion parameter (D∗) indicated that the distribution function was highly distorted from a Maxwellian form when the ion drift increased to 4 km s−1. The true three-dimensional ion temperature was used in the simplified ion balance equation to compute the ion mass during the heating event. The ion composition was found to change from predominantly O4 to mainly molecular ions. A theoretical analysis of the ion composition, using the MSIS86 model and published values of the chemical rate coefficients, accounts for the order-of-magnitude increase in the atomic/molecular ion ratio during the event, but does not successfully explain the very high proportion of molecular ions that was observed.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.