Mineralogy-based quantitative precipitation and temperature reconstructions from annually laminated lake sediments (Swiss Alps) since AD 1580

[1] We present quantitative autumn, summer and annual precipitation and summer temperature reconstructions from proglacial annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps back to AD 1580. We used X-ray diffraction peak intensity ratios of minerals in the sediment layers (quartz qz, plagioclase pl, amphibole am, mica mi) that are diagnostic for different source areas and hydro-meteorological transport processes in the catchment. XRD data were calibrated with meteorological data (AD 1800/1864–1950) and revealed significant correlations: mi/pl with SON precipitation (r = 0.56, p < 0.05) and MJJAS precipitation (r = 0.66, p < 0.01); qz/mi with MJJAS temperature (r = −0.72, p < 0.01)and qz/am with annual precipitation (r = −0.54, p < 0.05). Geological catchment settings and hydro-meteorological processes provide deterministic explanations for the correlations. Our summer temperature reconstruction reproduces the typical features of past climate variability known from independent data sets. The precipitation reconstructions show a LIA climate moister than today. Exceptionally wet periods in our reconstruction coincide with regional glacier advances.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Mid-to Late Holocene flood frequency in the northeastern Alps as recorded in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee

Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments with intercalated detrital layers resulting from sedimentary input by runoff events are ideal archives to establish precisely dated records of past extreme runoff events. In this study, the mid- to late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) were analysed by combining sedimentological, geophysical and geochemical methods. This approach allows to distinguish two types of detrital layers related to different types of extreme runoff events (floods and debris flows) and to detect changes in flood activity during the last 7100 years. In total, 271 flood and 47 debris flow layers, deposited during spring and summer, were identified, which cluster in 18 main flood episodes (FE 1-18) with durations of 30-50 years each. These main flood periods occurred during the Late Neolithic (7100-7050 vyr BP and 6470-4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300-3250 and 2800-2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050-2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500-1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810-430 vyr BP). Summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of alpine glaciers. Prior to 1500 vyr BP, spring/summer floods and debris flows are generally less frequent, indicating a lower number of intense rainfall events that triggered erosion. In comparison with the increase of late Holocene flood activity in western and northwestern (NW) Europe, commencing already as early as 2800 yr BP, the hydro-meteorological shift in the Lake Mondsee region occurred much later. These time lags in the onset of increased hydrological activity might be either due to regional differences in atmospheric circulation pattern or to the sensitivity of the individual flood archives. The Lake Mondsee sediments represent the first precisely dated and several millennia long summer flood record for the northeastern (NE) Alps, a key region at the climatic boundary of Atlantic, Mediterranean and East European air masses aiding a better understanding of regional and seasonal peculiarities of flood occurrence under changing climate conditions.

The Influence of Hydrologic Restoration on Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions in a Karst Wetland, the Everglades (FL, USA)

Efforts to rehydrate and restore surface water flow in karst wetlands can have unintended consequences, as these highly conductive and heterogeneous aquifers create a close connection between groundwater and surface water. Recently, hydrologic restoration efforts in the karstic Taylor Slough portion of the Everglades has changed from point source delivery of canal water (direct restoration), to the use of a series of surface water recharge retention basins (diffuse restoration). To determine the influence of restoration on groundwater-surface water interactions in the Taylor Slough headwaters, a water budget was constructed for 1997–2011 using 70 hydro-meteorological stations. With diffuse restoration, groundwater seepage from the Everglades toward the urban boundary increased, while the downstream delivery of surface water to the main portion of the slough declined. The combined influence of diffuse restoration and climate led to increased intra-annual variability in the volume of groundwater and surface water in storage but supported a more seasonally hydrated wetland compared to the earlier direct tactics. The data further indicated that hydrologic engineering in karst wetland landscapes enhances groundwater-surface water interactions, even those designed for restoration purposes.

Glaisdale Beck diversion scheme - channel change and suspended sediment response

This paper describes the implementation of a novel mitigation approach and subsequent adaptive management, designed to reduce the transfer of fine sediment in Glaisdale Beck; a small upland catchment in the UK. Hydro-meteorological and suspended sediment datasets are collected over a two year period spanning pre- and post-diversion periods in order to assess the impact of the channel reconfiguration scheme on the fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. Analysis of the river response demonstrates that the fluvial sediment system has become more restrictive with reduced fine sediment transfer. This is characterised by reductions in flow-weighted mean suspended sediment concentrations from 77.93 mg/l prior to mitigation, to 74.36 mg/l following the diversion. A Mann-Whitney U test found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001) between the pre- and post-monitoring median SSCs. Whilst application of one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) on the coefficients of sediment rating curves developed before and after the diversion found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), with both Log a and b coefficients becoming smaller following the diversion. Non-parametric analysis indicates a reduction in residuals through time (p < 0.001), with the developed LOWESS model over-predicting sediment concentrations as the channel stabilises. However, the channel is continuing to adjust to the reconfigured morphology, with evidence of a headward propagating knickpoint which has migrated 120 m at an exponentially decreasing rate over the last 7 years since diversion. The study demonstrates that channel reconfiguration can be effective in mitigating fine sediment flux in upland streams but the full value of this may take many years to achieve whilst the fluvial system, slowly readjusts.

Multi-year weather data in the remote semi-arid to arid mountain region of the Saharan flank of the Atlas Mountains

In 2001, a weather and climate monitoring network was established along the temperature and aridity gradient between the sub-humid Moroccan High Atlas Mountains and the former end lake of the Middle Drâa in a pre-Saharan environment. The highest Automated Weather Stations (AWS) was installed just below the M'Goun summit at 3850 m, the lowest station Lac Iriki was at 450 m. This network of 13 AWS stations was funded and maintained by the German IMPETUS (BMBF Grant 01LW06001A, North Rhine-Westphalia Grant 313-21200200) project and since 2011 five stations were further maintained by the GERMAN DFG Fennec project (FI 786/3-1), this way some stations of the AWS network provided data for almost 12 years from 2001-2012. Standard meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind were measured at an altitude of 2 m above ground. Other meteorological variables comprise precipitation, station pressure, solar irradiance, soil temperature at different depths and for high mountain station snow water equivalent. The stations produced data summaries for 5-minute-precipitation-data, 10- or 15-minute-data and a daily summary of all other variables. This network is a unique resource of multi-year weather data in the remote semi-arid to arid mountain region of the Saharan flank of the Atlas Mountains. The network is described in Schulz et al. (2010) and its further continuation until 2012 is briefly discussed in Redl et al. (2015, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0223.1) and Redl et al. (2016, doi:10.1002/2015JD024443).

Atmospheric electrical field measurements near a fresh water reservoir and the formation of the lake breeze

In order to access the effect of the lakes in the atmospheric electrical field, measurements have been carried out near a large man-made lake in southern Portugal, the Alqueva reservoir, during the ALqueva hydro-meteorological EXperiment 2014. The purpose of these conjoint experiments was to study the impact of the Alqueva reservoir on the atmosphere, in particular on the local atmospheric electric environment by comparing measurements taken in the proximity of the lake. Two stations 10 km apart were used, as they were located up- and down-wind of the lake (Amieira and Parque Solar, respectively), in reference to the dominant northwestern wind direction. The up-wind station shows lower atmospheric electric potential gradient (PG) values than the ones observed in the down-wind station between 12 and 20 UTC. The difference in the atmospheric electric PG between the up-wind and the down-wind station is ~30 V/m during the day. This differential occurs mainly during the development of a lake breeze, between 10 and 18 UTC, as a consequence of the surface temperature gradient between the surrounding land and the lake water. In the analysis presented, a correlation is found between the atmospheric electric PG differences and both wind speed and temperature gradients over the lake, thus supporting the influence of the lake breeze over the observed PG variation in the two stations. Two hypotheses are provided to explain this observation: (1) The air that flows from the lake into the land station is likely to increase the local electric conductivity through the removal of ground dust and the transport of cleaner air from higher altitudes with significant light ion concentrations. With such an increase in conductivity, it is expected to see a reduction of the atmospheric electric PG; (2) the resulting air flow over the land station carries negative ions formed by wave splashing in the lake's water surface, as a result of the so-called balloelectric effect. These negative ions will form a space-charge density (SCD) that can reduce the atmospheric electric PG. A formulation is derived here in order to estimate the local SCD.

Landslide activity in contrasting land-cover settings constrained by multi-temporal inventorying

This doctoral thesis focuses on the study of historical shallow landslide activity over time in response to anthropogenic forcing on land use, through the compilation of multi-temporal landslide inventories. The study areas, located in contrasting settings and characterized by different history of land-cover changes, include the Sillaro River basin (Italy) and the Tsitika and Eve River basins (coastal British Columbia). The Sillaro River basin belongs to clay-dominated settings, characterized by extensive badland development, and dominated by earth slides and earthflows. Here, forest removal began in the Roman period and has been followed by agricultural land abandonment and natural revegetation in recent time. By contrast, the Tsitika-Eve River basins are characterized by granitic and basaltic lithologies, and dominated by debris slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. In this setting, anthropogenic impacts started in 1960’s and have involved logging operation. The thesis begins with an introductory chapter, followed by a methodological section, where a multi-temporal mapping approach is proposed and tested at four landslide sites of the Sillaro River basin. Results, in terms of inventory completeness in time and space, are compared against the existing region-wide Emilia-Romagna inventory. This approach is then applied at the Sillaro River basin scale, where the multi-temporal inventory obtained is used to investigate the landslide activity in relation to historical land cover changes across geologic domains and in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing. Then, the impact of timber harvesting and road construction on landslide activity and sediment transfer in the Tsitika-Eve River basins is investigated, with a focus on the controls that interactions between landscape morphometry and cutblock location may have on landslide size-frequency relations. The thesis ends with a summary of the main findings and discusses advantages and limitations associated with the compilation of multi-temporal inventories in the two settings during different periods of human-driven, land-cover dynamics.

Los efectos de los desastres en 2004 y 2005: la necesidad de adaptación de largo plazo

Incluye Bibliografía

Hydro-kinetic approach to relativistic heavy ion collisions

We develop a combined hydro-kinetic approach which incorporates a hydrodynamical expansion of the systems formed in A + A collisions and their dynamical decoupling described by escape probabilities. The method corresponds to a generalized relaxation time (tau(rel)) approximation for the Boltzmann equation applied to inhomogeneous expanding systems; at small tau(rel) it also allows one to catch the viscous effects in hadronic component-hadron-resonance gas. We demonstrate how the approximation of sudden freeze-out can be obtained within this dynamical picture of continuous emission and find that hypersurfaces, corresponding to a sharp freeze-out limit, are momentum dependent. The pion m(T) spectra are computed in the developed hydro-kinetic model, and compared with those obtained from ideal hydrodynamics with the Cooper-Frye isothermal prescription. Our results indicate that there does not exist a universal freeze-out temperature for pions with different momenta, and support an earlier decoupling of higher p(T) particles. By performing numerical simulations for various initial conditions and equations of state we identify several characteristic features of the bulk QCD matter evolution preferred in view of the current analysis of heavy ion collisions at RHIC energies.

Kinetics of the xylitol crystallization in hydro-alcoholic solution

Nyvlt method Was used to determine the kinetic parameters of commercial xylitol in ethanol:water (50:50 %w/w) Solution by batch cooling crystallization. The kinetic exponents (n, g and in) and the system kinetic constant (B(N)) were determined. Model experiments were carried Out in order to verify the combined effects of saturation temperatures (40, 50 and 60 degrees C) and cooling rates (0.10, 0.25 and 0.50 degrees C/min) on these parameters. The fitting between experimental and Calculated crystal sizes has 11.30% mean deviation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 23rd October 2002 dust storm in eastern Australia: characteristics and meteorological conditions

The dust storm of 23 October 2002 covered most of eastern Australia and carried one of the largest recorded dust loads in Australia. In the 6 months leading up to the event, severe drought conditions in eastern Australia, plus above average maximum temperatures resulted in high potential evapo-transpiration rates, producing severe soil moisture deficits and reduced vegetation cover. Although increased wind speeds associated with a fast moving cold front were the meteorological driving force, these winds speeds were lower than those for the previously documented large dust storms. The dust storm was 2400 km long, up to 400 km across and 1.5-2.5 km in height. The plume area was estimated at 840,860 km 2 and the dust load at 0900 h was 3.35-4.85 million tones (Mt). These dust load estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions, regarding visibility-dust concentration relationships, vertical dust concentration profiles and dust ceilings. The event is examined using meteorological records, remote sensing and air quality monitoring. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of fungi and endotoxin with PM2.5 and meteorological parameters in atmosphere of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Particulate matter, especially PM2.5, is associated with increased morbidity and mortality from respiratory diseases. Studies that focus on the chemical composition of the material are frequent in the literature, but those that characterize the biological fraction are rare. The objectives of this study were to characterize samples collected in Sao Paulo, Brazil on the quantity of fungi and endotoxins associated with PM2.5, correlating with the mass of particulate matter, chemical composition and meteorological parameters. We did that by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regressions. The results have shown that fungi and endotoxins represent significant portion of PM2.5, reaching average concentrations of 772.23 spores mu g(-1) of PM2.5 (SD: 400.37) and 5.52 EU mg(-1) of PM2.5 (SD: 4.51 EU mg(-1)), respectively. Hyaline basidiospores, Cladosporium and total spore counts were correlated to factor Ba/Ca/Fe/Zn/K/Si of PM2.5 (p < 0.05). Genera Pen/Asp were correlated to the total mass of PM2.5 (p < 0.05) and colorless ascospores were correlated to humidity (p < 0.05). Endotoxin was positively correlated with the atmospheric temperature (p < 0.05). This study has shown that bioaerosol is present in considerable amounts in PM2.5 in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Some fungi were correlated with soil particle resuspension and mass of particulate matter. Therefore, the relative contribution of bioaerosol in PM2.5 should be considered in future studies aimed at evaluating the clinical impact of exposure to air pollution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Airborne Pinus pollen in the atmosphere of Brisbane, Australia and relationships with meteorological parameters

Relationships between weather parameters andairborne pollen loads of Pinus inBrisbane, Australia have been investigated overthe five-year period, June 1994–May 1999.Pinus pollen accounts for 4.5% of the annualairborne pollen load in Brisbane where thePinus season is confined to the winter months,July–early September. During the samplingperiod loads of 11–>100 grains m3 wererecorded on 24 days and 1–10 grains m3 on204 days. The onset and peak dates wereconsistent across each season, whereas the enddates varied. The onset of the Pinuspollen season coincided with the coolestaverage monthly temperatures (< 22°C),lowest rainfall (< 7mm), and four weeks afterdaily minimum temperatures fell to 5–9°Cin late autumn. Correlations obtained betweendaily airborne Pinus pollen counts andtemperature/rainfall parameters show thatdensities of airborne Pinus pollen arenegatively correlated with maximum temperature(p < 0.0001), minimum temperature (p < 0.0001)and rainfall (p < 0.05) during the mainpollination period. The mean duration of eachpollen season was 52 days; longer seasons wereshown to be directly related to lower averageseasonal maximum temperatures (r2 = 0.85,p = 0.025). These results signify that maximumand minimum temperatures are the majorparameters that influence the onset andduration of the Pinus pollen season inthe environs of Brisbane. Respiratory allergyis an important health issue in Brisbane,Australia, but it remains unknown whether ornot airborne Pinus pollen is acontributing factor.