Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Trends in children`s physical activity and weight status in high and low socio-economic status areas of Melbourne, Victoria, 1985-2001

Objective:
To examine trends in active transport to and from school, in school sport and physical education (PE), and in weight status among children from high and low socio-economic status (SES) areas in Melbourne, Victoria, between 1985 and 2001.

Methods:
Cross-sectional survey data and measured height and weight from 1985 (n=557) and 2001 (n=926) were compared for children aged between 9–13 years within high and low SES areas.

Results:
From 1985 to 2001, the frequency of walking to or from school declined (4.38±4.3 vs. 3.61 ± 3.8 trips/wk, p<0.001), cycling to or from school also declined (1.22±2.9 vs. 0.36±1.5 trips/wk, p<0.001), and the frequency of PE lessons declined (1.64±1.1 vs. 1.18±0.9 lessons/wk, p<0.001). However, the frequency of school sport increased (0.9±1.22 vs. 1.24±0.8 sessions/wk, p<0.001). In 1985, 11.7% of children were overweight or obese compared with 28.7% in 2001 (p<0.001). Apart from walking to school and school sport, there were greater relative declines in cycling to school and PE, and increases in overweight and obesity among children attending schools in low SES areas compared with those attending schools in high SES areas.

Conclusions:
Declines in active school transport and PE have occurred at the same time as increases in overweight and obesity among Australian children.

Implications:
Promoting active school transport and maintaining school sport and PE should be important public health priorities in Australia. Current inequities in school sport and PE and in prevalence of overweight and obesity by area-level SES also need to be addressed.

Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya

This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.

Rainfall infiltration and soil hydrological characteristics below ancient forest, planted forest and grassland in a temperate northern climate

How rainfall infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics develop over time under forests of different ages in temperate regions is poorly understood. In this study, infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics were investigated under forests of different ages and under grassland. Soil hydraulic characteristics were measured at different scales under a 250-year-old grazed grassland (GL), 6-year-old (6yr) and 48-year-old (48yr) Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantations, remnant 300-year-old individual Scots pine (OT) and a 4000-year-old Caledonian Forest (AF). In situ field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was measured, and visible root:soil area was estimated from soil pits. Macroporosity, pore structure and macropore connectivity were estimated from X-ray tomography of soil cores, and from water-release characteristics. At all scales, the median values for Kfs, root fraction, macroporosity and connectivity values tended to AF>OT>48yr>GL>6yr, indicating that infiltration rates and water storage increased with forest age. The remnant Caledonian Forest had a huge range of Kfs (12 to >4922mmh-1), with maximum Kfs values 7 to 15 times larger than those of 48-year-old Scots pine plantation, suggesting that undisturbed old forests, with high rainfall and minimal evapotranspiration in winter, may act as important areas for water storage and sinks for storm rainfall to infiltrate and transport to deeper soil layers via preferential flow. The importance of the development of soil hydrological characteristics under different aged forests is discussed.

The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

Determination of coastal ground and surface water processes and character by use of hydrochemistry and stable isotopes, Fraser Coast, Queensland

This study was part of an integrated project developed in response to concerns regarding current and future land practices affecting water quality within coastal catchments and adjacent marine environments. Two forested coastal catchments on the Fraser Coast, Australia, were chosen as examples of low-modification areas with similar geomorphological and land-use characteristics to many other coastal zones in southeast Queensland. For this component of the overall project, organic , physico-chemical (Eh, pH and DO), ionic (Fe2+, Fe3+), and isotopic (ä13CDIC, ä15NDIN ä34SSO4) data were used to characterise waters and identify sources and processes contributing to concentrations and form of dissolved Fe, C, N and S within the ground and surface waters of these coastal catchments. Three sites with elevated Fe concentrations are discussed in detail. These included a shallow pool with intermittent interaction with the surface water drainage system, a monitoring well within a semi-confined alluvial aquifer, and a monitoring well within the fresh/saline water mixing zone adjacent to an estuary. Conceptual models of processes occurring in these environments are presented. The primary factors influencing Fe transport were; microbial reduction of Fe3+ oxyhydroxides in groundwaters and in the hyporheic zone of surface drainage systems, organic input available for microbial reduction and Fe3+ complexation, bacterial activity for reduction and oxidation, iron curtain effects where saline/fresh water mixing occurs, and variation in redox conditions with depth in ground and surface water columns. Data indicated that groundwater seepage appears a more likely source of Fe to coastal waters (during periods of low rainfall) via tidal flux. The drainage system is ephemeral and contributes little discharge to marine waters. However, data collected during a high rainfall event indicated considerable Fe loads can be transported to the estuary mouth from the catchment.

Increasing disaster resilience of people and property through fostering collaboration in coastal high hazard zones

As evidenced with the 2011 floods the state of Queensland in Australia is quite vulnerable to this kind of disaster. Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of such events and will have a variety of other impacts. To deal with these governments at all levels need to be prepared and work together. Since most of the population of the state is located in the coastal areas and these areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change this paper examines climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Queensland. The paper is part of a more comprehensive project which looks at the critical linkages between land use and transport planning in coastal Queensland, especially in light of increased frequencies of cyclonic activity and other impacts associated with climate change. The aim is improving coordination between local and state government in addressing land use and transport planning in coastal high hazard areas. By increasing the ability of local governments and state agencies to coordinate planning activities, we can help adapt to impacts of climate change. Towards that end, we will look at the ways that these groups currently interact, especially with regard to issues involving uncertainty related to climate change impacts. Through surveys and interviews of Queensland coastal local governments and state level planning agencies on how they coordinate their planning activities at different levels as well as how much they take into account the linkage of transportation and land use we aim to identify the weaknesses of the current planning system in responding to the challenges of climate change adaptation. The project will identify opportunities for improving the ways we plan and coordinate planning, and make recommendations to improve resilience in advance of disasters so as to help speed up recovery when they occur.

The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov.: a new species of carnivorous marsupial from montane regions of the Tweed Volcano caldera, eastern Australia

We describe a new species of dasyurid marsupial within the genus Antechinus that was previously known as a northern outlier of Dusky Antechinus (A. swainsonii). The Black-tailed Antechinus, Antechinus arktos sp. nov., is known only from areas of high altitude and high rainfall on the Tweed Volcano caldera of far south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, Australia. Antechinus arktos formerly sheltered under the taxonomic umbrella of A. swainsonii mimetes, the widespread mainland form of Dusky Antechinus. With the benefit of genetic hindsight, some striking morphological differences are herein resolved: A. s. mimetes is more uniformly deep brown-black to grizzled grey-brown from head to rump, with brownish (clove brown—raw umber) hair on the upper surface of the hindfoot and tail, whereas A. arktos is more vibrantly coloured, with a marked change from greyish-brown head to orange-brown rump, fuscous black on the upper surface of the hindfoot and dense, short fur on the evenly black tail. Further, A. arktos has marked orange-brown fur on the upper and lower eyelid, cheek and in front of the ear and very long guard hairs all over the body; these characters are more subtle in A. s. mimetes. There are striking genetic differences between the two species: at mtDNA, A. s. mimetes from north-east New South Wales is 10% divergent to A. arktos from its type locality at Springbrook NP, Queensland. In contrast, the Ebor A. s. mimetes clades closely with conspecifics from ACT and Victoria. A. arktos skulls are strikingly different to all subspecies of A. swainsonii. A. arktos are markedly larger than A. s. mimetes and A. s. swainsonii (Tasmania) for a range of craniodental measures. Antechinus arktos were historically found at a few proximate mountainous sites in south-east Queensland, and have only recently been recorded from or near the type locality. Even there, the species is likely in low abundance. The Black-tailed Antechinus has plausibly been detrimentally affected by climate change in recent decades, and will be at further risk with increasing warming trends.

Wet tropics reef rescue impact report 2009

The Wet Tropics region has a unique water asset and is also considered a priority region for the improvement of water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef due to a combination of high rainfall, intensive agricultural use, urban areas and the proximity of valuable reef assets to the coast. Agricultural activities are one of many identified threats to water quality and water flows in the Wet Tropics in terms of sediment and pollutant-related water quality decline. Information describing the current state of agricultural management practices across the region is patchy at best. Based on the best available information on agricultural management practices in the Wet Tropics in 2008, it is clear that opportunities exist to improve nutrient, sediment and pesticide management practice to reduce the impact on the water asset and the Great Barrier Reef. Based on current understandings of practices and the relationship between practices and reef water quality, the greatest opportunities for improved water quality are as follows: · nutrients – correct rate and the placement of fertilisers; · pesticides – improve weed control planning, herbicide rates and calibration practice; and · soil and sediment – implement new farming system practices. The 2008-09 Reef Rescue program sought to accelerate the rate of adoption of improved management practices and through Terrain invested $6.8M in the 2008-09 year for: · landholder water quality improvement incentive payments; · cross regional catchment repair of wetlands and riparian lands in areas of high sediment or nutrient loss; and · partnerships in the region to lever resources and support for on-ground practice change. The program delivered $3,021,999 in onground incentives to landholders in the Wet Tropics to improve farm practices from D or C level to B or A level. The landholder Water Quality Incentives Grants program received 300 individual applications for funding and funded 143 individual landholders to implement practice change across 36,098 ha of farm land. It is estimated that the Reef Rescue program facilitated practice change across 21% of the cane industry, and 20% of the banana industry. The program levered an additional $2,441,166 in landholder cash contributions and a further $907,653 in non-cash in-kind contributions bringing the total project value of the landholder grants program in the Wet Tropics to $6,370,819. Most funded projects targeted multiple water quality objectives with a focus on nutrient and sediment reduction. Of the 143 projects funded, 115 projects addressed nutrient management either as the primary focus or in combination with strategies that targeted other water quality objectives. Overall, 82 projects addressed two or more water quality targets. Forty-five percent of incentive funds were allocated to new farming system practices (direct drill legumes, zonal tillage equipment, permanent beds, min till planting equipment, GPS units, laser levelling), followed by 24% allocated to subsurface fertiliser applicators (subsurface application of fertiliser using a stool splitter or beside the stool, at the correct Six Easy Steps rate). As a result, Terrain estimates that the incentive grants achieved considerable reductions in nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment and pesticide loads. The program supported nutrient management training of 167 growers managing farms covering over 20% of the area harvested in 2008, and 18 industry advisors and resellers. This resulted in 115 growers (155 farms) developing nutrient management plans. The program also supported Integrated Weed Management training of 80 growers managing farms covering 8% of the area harvested in 2008, and 6 industry advisors and resellers. This report, which draws on the best available Reef Rescue Management Monitoring, Evaluation, Reporting, and Improvement (MERI) information to evaluate program performance and impact on water quality outcomes, is the first in a series of annual reports that will assess and evaluate the impact of the Reef Rescue program on agricultural practices and water quality outcomes. The assessment is predominantly focused on the cane industry because of data availability. In the next stage, efforts will expand to: · improve practice data for the banana and grazing industry; · gain a better understanding of the water quality trends and the factors influencing them in the Wet Tropics; in particular work will focus on linking the results of the Paddock to Reef monitoring program and practice change data to assess program impact; · enhance estimations of the impact of practice change on pollutant loads from agricultural land use; · gain a better understanding of the extent of ancillary practice (change not directly funded) resulting from Reef Rescue training/ education/communication programs; and · provide a better understanding of the economic cost of practice change across the Wet Tropics region. From an ecological perspective, water quality trends and the factors that may be contributing to change, require further investigation. There is a critical need to work towards an enhanced understanding of the link between catchment land management practice change and reef water quality, so that reduced nutrient, sediment, and pesticide discharge to the Great Barrier Reef can be quantified. This will also assist with future prioritisation of grants money to agricultural industries, catchments and sub catchments. From a social perspective, the program has delivered significant water quality benefits from landholder education and training. It is believed that these activities are giving landholders the information and tools to implement further lasting change in their production systems and in doing so, creating a change in attitude that is supportive and inclusive of Natural Resource Management (NRM). The program in the Wet Tropics has also considerably strengthened institutional partnerships for NRM, particularly between NRM and industry and extension organisations. As a result of the Reef Rescue program, all institutions are actively working together to collectively improve water quality. The Reef Rescue program is improving water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon by catalysing substantial activity in the Wet Tropics region to improve land management practices and reduce the water quality impact of agricultural landscapes. The solid institutional partnerships between the regional body, industry, catchment and government organisations have been fundamental to the successful delivery of the landholder grant and catchment rehabilitation programs. Landholders have generally had a positive perception and reaction to the program, its intent, and the practical, focused nature of grant-based support. Demand in the program was extremely high in 2008-09 and is expected to increase in 2009-2010.

Developing sustainable banana production systems: a case study from tropical Australia

The north Queensland banana industry is under pressure from government and community expectations to exhibit good environmental stewardship. The industry is situated on the high-rainfall north Queensland coast adjacent to 2 natural icons, the Great Barrier Reef to the east and World Heritage-listed rain forest areas to the west. The main environmental concern is agricultural industry pollutants harming the Great Barrier Reef. In addition to environmental issues the banana industry also suffers financial pressure from declining margins and production loss from tropical cyclones. As part of a broader government strategy to reduce land-based pollutants affecting the Great Barrier Reef, the formation of a pilot banana producers group to address these environmental and economic pressures was facilitated. Using an integrated farming systems approach, we worked collaboratively with these producers to conduct an environmental risk assessment of their businesses and then to develop best management practices (BMP) to address environmental concerns. We also sought input from technical experts to provide increased rigour for the environmental risk assessment and BMP development. The producers' commercial experience ensured new ideas for improved sustainable practices were constantly assessed through their profit-driven 'filter' thus ensuring economic sustainability was also considered. Relying heavily on the producers' knowledge and experience meant the agreed sustainable practices were practical, relevant and financially feasible for the average-sized banana business in the region. Expert input and review also ensured that practices were technically sound. The pilot group producers then implemented and adapted selected key practices on their farms. High priority practices addressed by the producers group included optimizing nitrogen fertilizer management to reduce runoff water nitrification, developing practical ground cover management to reduce soil erosion and improving integrated pest management systems to reduce pesticide use. To facilitate wider banana industry understanding and adoption of the BMP's developed by the pilot group, we conducted field days at the farms of the pilot group members. Information generated by the pilot group has had wider application to Australian horticulture and the process has been subsequently used with the north Queensland sugar industry. Our experiences have shown that integrated farming systems methodologies are useful in addressing complex issues like environmental and economic sustainability. We have also found that individual horticulture businesses need on-going technical support for change to more sustainable practices. One-off interventions have little impact, as farm improvement is usually an on-going incremental process. A key lesson from this project has been the need to develop practical, farm scale economic tools to clarify and demonstrate the financial impact of alternative management practices. Demonstrating continued profitability is critical to encourage widespread industry adoption of environmentally sustainable practices

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

Long-Term Environmental Correlates of Invasion by Lantana camara (Verbenaceae) in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.

I. Foehn winds of southern California. II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis. III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster. IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934

I. Foehn winds of southern California.
An investigation of the hot, dry and dust laden winds occurring in the late fall and early winter in the Los Angeles Basin and attributed in the past to the influences of the desert regions to the north revealed that these currents were of a foehn nature. Their properties were found to be entirely due to dynamical heating produced in the descent from the high level areas in the interior to the lower Los Angeles Basin. Any dust associated with the phenomenon was found to be acquired from the Los Angeles area rather than transported from the desert. It was found that the frequency of occurrence of a mild type foehn of this nature during this season was sufficient to warrant its classification as a winter monsoon. This results from the topography of the Los Angeles region which allows an easy entrance to the air from the interior by virtue of the low level mountain passes north of the area. This monsoon provides the mild winter climate of southern California since temperatures associated with the foehn currents are far higher than those experienced when maritime air from the adjacent Pacific Ocean occupies the region.

II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis.
Intense anticyclones frequently build up over the high level regions of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau which lie between the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. The outflow from these anticyclones produce extensive foehns east of the Rockies in the comparatively low level areas of the middle west and the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Normally at this season of the year very cold polar continental air masses are present over this territory and with the occurrence of these foehns marked discontinuity surfaces arise between the warm foehn current, which is obliged to slide over a colder mass, and the Pc air to the east. Cyclones are easily produced from this phenomenon and take the form of unstable waves which propagate along the discontinuity surface between the two dissimilar masses. A continual series of such cyclones was found to occur as long as the Great Basin anticyclone is maintained with undiminished intensity.

III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster.
This situation illustrates the speedy development and propagation of young disturbances in the eastern United States during the spring of the year under the influence of the conditionally unstable tropical maritime air masses which characterise the region. It also furnishes an excellent example of the superiority of air mass and frontal methods of weather prediction for aircraft operation over the older methods based upon pressure distribution.

IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934.
This discussion points out some of the fundamental interactions occurring between air masses of the North Pacific Ocean in connection with Pacific Coast storms and the value of topographic and aerological considerations in predicting them. Estimates of rainfall intensity and duration from analyses of this type may be made and would prove very valuable in the Los Angeles area in connection with flood control problems.

Predicting critical source areas of sediment in headwater catchments

Mitigation of diffuse nutrient and sediment delivery to streams requires successful identification andmanagement of critical source areas within catchments. Approaches to predicting high risk areas forsediment loss have typically relied on structural drivers of connectivity and risk, with little considera-tion given to process driven water quality responses. To assess the applicability of structural metrics topredict critical source areas, geochemical tracing of land use sources was conducted in three headwateragricultural catchments in Co. Down and Co. Louth, Ireland, within a Monte Carlo framework. Outputswere applied to the inverse optimisation of a connectivity model, based on LiDAR DEM data, to assess theefficacy of land use risk weightings to predict sediment source contributions over the 18 month studyperiod in the Louth Upper, Louth Lower and Down catchments. Results of the study indicated sedimentproportions over the study period varied from 6 to 10%, 84 to 87%, 4%, and 2 to 3% for the Down Catch-ment, 79 to 85%, 9 to 17%, 1 to 3% and 2 to 3% in the Louth Upper and 2 to 3%, 79 to 85%, 10 to 17%and 2 to 3% in the Louth Lower for arable, channel bank, grassland, and woodland sources, respectively.Optimised land use risk weightings for each sampling period showed that at the larger catchment scale,no variation in median land use weightings were required to predict land use contributions. However,for the two smaller study catchments, variation in median risk weightings was considerable, which mayindicate the importance of functional connectivity processes at this spatial scale. In all instances, arableland consistently generated the highest risk of sediment loss across all catchments and sampling times.This study documents some of the first data on sediment provenance in Ireland and indicates the needfor cautious consideration of land use as a tool to predict critical source areas at the headwater scale