A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Nickel in soil and maize plants grown on an oxisol treated over a long time with sewage sludge

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Performance tests of two small trigeneration pilot plants

Trigeneration systems have been used with advantage in the last years in distributed electricity generation systems as a function of a growth of natural gas pipeline network distribution system, tax incentives, and energy regulation policies. Typically, a trigeneration system is used to produce electrical power simultaneously with supplying heating and cooling load by recovering the combustion products thermal power content that otherwise would be driven to atmosphere. Concerning that, two small scale trigeneration plants have been tested for overall efficiency evaluation and operational comparison. The first system is based on a 30 kW (ISO) natural gas powered microturbine, and the second one uses a 26 kW natural gas powered internal combustion engine coupled to an electrical generator as a prime mover. The stack gases from both machines were directed to a 17.6 kW ammonia-water absorption refrigeration chiller for producing chilled water first and next to a water heat recovery boiler in order to produce hot water. Experimental results are presented along with relevant system operational parameters for appropriate operation including natural gas consumption, net electrical and thermal power production, i.e., hot and cold water production rates, primary energy saving index, and the energy utilization factor over total and partial electrical load operational conditions. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed degradation in photovoltaic plants affected by hot-spots

A number of findings have shown that the test procedures currently available to determine the reliability and durability of photovoltaic (PV) modules are insufficient to detect certain problems. To improve these procedures, ongoing research into the actual performance of the modules in the field is required. However, scientific literature contains but few references to field studies of defective modules. This article studies two different localized heating phenomena affecting the PV modules of two large-scale PV plants in Spain. The first problem relates to weak solder joints whilst the second is due to microcracks on the module cells. For both cases, the cause is identified, and consideration is given with regard to the effect on performance, the potential deterioration over time, and a way to detect the problems identified. The findings contained in this paper will prove to be of considerable interest to maintenance personnel at large-scale PV plants and also to those responsible for setting module quality standards and specifications, and even the PV module manufacturers themselves.

Added value from biomass by broader utilization of fuels and CHP plants

The present work, where additional value-creating processes in existing combined heat and power (CHP) structures have been examined, is motivated by a political- and consumer-driven strive towards a bioeconomy and a stagnation for the existing business models in large parts of the CHP sector. The research is based on cases where the integration of flash pyrolysis for co-production of bio-oil, co-gasification for production of fuel gas and synthetic biofuels as well as leaching of extractable fuel components in existing CHP plants have been simulated. In particular, this work has focused on the CHP plants that utilize boilers of fluidized bed (FB) type, where the concept of coupling a separate FB reactor to the FB of the boiler forms an important basis for the analyses. In such dual fluidized bed (DFB) technology, heat is transferred from the boiler to the new rector that is operating with other fluidization media than air, thereby enabling other thermochemical processes than combustion to take place. The result of this work shows that broader operations at existing CHP plants have the potential to enable production of significant volumes of chemicals and/or fuels with high efficiency, while maintaining heat supply to external customers. Based on the insight that the technical preconditions for a broader operation are favourable, the motivation and ability among the incumbents in the Swedish CHP sector to participate in a transition of their operation towards a biorefinery was examined. The result of this assessment showed that the incumbents believe that a broader operation can create significant values for their own operations, the society and the environment, but that they lack both a strong motivation as well as important abilities to move into the new technological fields. If the concepts of broader production are widely implemented in the Swedish FB based CHP sector, this can substantially contribute in the transition towards a bioeconomy.

Utilization Of (15)no3 (-) By Nodulated Soybean Plants Under Conditions Of Root Hypoxia.

Waterlogging of soils is common in nature. The low availability of oxygen under these conditions leads to hypoxia of the root system impairing the development and productivity of the plant. The presence of nitrate under flooding conditions is regarded as being beneficial towards tolerance to this stress. However, it is not known how nodulated soybean plants, cultivated in the absence of nitrate and therefore not metabolically adapted to this compound, would respond to nitrate under root hypoxia in comparison with non-nodulated plants grown on nitrate. A study was conducted with (15)N labelled nitrate supplied on waterlogging for a period of 48 h using both nodulated and non-nodulated plants of different physiological ages. Enrichment of N was found in roots and leaves with incorporation of the isotope in amino acids, although to a much smaller degree under hypoxia than normoxia. This demonstrates that nitrate is taken up under hypoxic conditions and assimilated into amino acids, although to a much lesser extent than for normoxia. The similar response obtained with nodulated and non-nodulated plants indicates the rapid metabolic adaptation of nodulated plants to the presence of nitrate under hypoxia. Enrichment of N in nodules was very much weaker with a distinct enrichment pattern of amino acids (especially asparagine) suggesting that labelling arose from a tissue source external to the nodule rather than through assimilation in the nodule itself.

Evaluation Of Fe Uptake And Translocation In Transgenic And Non-transgenic Soybean Plants Using Enriched Stable (57)fe As A Tracer.

A tracer experiment is carried out with transgenic T (variety M 7211 RR) and non-transgenic NT (variety MSOY 8200) soybean plants to evaluate if genetic modification can influence the uptake and translocation of Fe. A chelate of EDTA with enriched stable (57)Fe is applied to the plants cultivated in vermiculite plus substrate and the (57)Fe acts as a tracer. The exposure of plants to enriched (57)Fe causes the dilution of the natural previously existing Fe in the plant compartments and then the changed Fe isotopic ratio ((57)Fe/(56)Fe) is measured using a quadrupole-based inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer equipped with a dynamic reaction cell (DRC). Mathematical calculations based on the isotope dilution methodology allow distinguishing the natural abundance Fe from the enriched Fe (incorporated during the experiment). The NT soybean plants acquire higher amounts of Fe from natural abundance (originally present in the soil) and from enriched Fe (coming from the (57)Fe-EDTA during the experiment) than T soybean ones, demonstrating that the NT soybean plants probably absorb higher amounts of Fe, independently of the source. The percentage of newly incorporated Fe (coming from the treatment) was approximately 2.0 and 1.1% for NT and T soybean plants, respectively. A higher fraction (90.1%) of enriched Fe is translocated to upper parts, and a slightly lower fraction (3.8%) is accumulated in the stems by NT plants than by T ones (85.1%; 5.1%). Moreover, in both plants, the Fe-EDTA facilitates the transport and translocation of Fe to the leaves. The genetic modification is probably responsible for differences observed between T and NT soybean plants.

Last Instar Larvae And Pupae Of Ourocnemis Archytas And Anteros Formosus (lepidoptera: Riodinidae), With A Summary Of Known Host Plants For The Tribe Helicopini.

Last instar larvae and pupae of Ourocnemis archytas (Lepidoptera: Riodinidae) are described for the first time and compared with those of Anteros formosus, which are also described in detail. Last instars of both species present body covered with long white plumose setae, a row of orange balloon setae on the prothoracic shield, and clusters of perforated cupola organs (PCOs) near the spiracles; differences are the black cephalic capsule, the placement and format of balloon setae cluster, and the presence of enlarged black tips on some plumose setae. Pupae of O. archytas resemble that of Anteros, covered with the last instar setae and with no balloon setae. Characteristics of the immature stages of these two genera could be useful to establish the still unresolved relationship between them. A summary of the host plants of Helicopini is presented, showing a polyphagous pattern for Anteros, recorded in 21 host plant families, which contrasts with the specialized diet observed in Helicopis and Sarota. 

Intensification Of Bioactive Compounds Extraction From Medicinal Plants Using Ultrasonic Irradiation.

Extraction processes are largely used in many chemical, biotechnological and pharmaceutical industries for recovery of bioactive compounds from medicinal plants. To replace the conventional extraction techniques, new techniques as high-pressure extraction processes that use environment friendly solvents have been developed. However, these techniques, sometimes, are associated with low extraction rate. The ultrasound can be effectively used to improve the extraction rate by the increasing the mass transfer and possible rupture of cell wall due the formation of microcavities leading to higher product yields with reduced processing time and solvent consumption. This review presents a brief survey about the mechanism and aspects that affecting the ultrasound assisted extraction focusing on the use of ultrasound irradiation for high-pressure extraction processes intensification.

Convergence Of A Specialized Root Trait In Plants From Nutrient-impoverished Soils: Phosphorus-acquisition Strategy In A Nonmycorrhizal Cactus.

In old, phosphorus (P)-impoverished habitats, root specializations such as cluster roots efficiently mobilize and acquire P by releasing large amounts of carboxylates in the rhizosphere. These specialized roots are rarely mycorrhizal. We investigated whether Discocactus placentiformis (Cactaceae), a common species in nutrient-poor campos rupestres over white sands, operates in the same way as other root specializations. Discocactus placentiformis showed no mycorrhizal colonization, but exhibited a sand-binding root specialization with rhizosheath formation. We first provide circumstantial evidence for carboxylate exudation in field material, based on its very high shoot manganese (Mn) concentrations, and then firm evidence, based on exudate analysis. We identified predominantly oxalic acid, but also malic, citric, lactic, succinic, fumaric, and malonic acids. When grown in nutrient solution with P concentrations ranging from 0 to 100 μM, we observed an increase in total carboxylate exudation with decreasing P supply, showing that P deficiency stimulated carboxylate release. Additionally, we tested P solubilization by citric, malic and oxalic acids, and found that they solubilized P from the strongly P-sorbing soil in its native habitat, when the acids were added in combination and in relatively low concentrations. We conclude that the sand-binding root specialization in this nonmycorrhizal cactus functions similar to that of cluster roots, which efficiently enhance P acquisition in other habitats with very low P availability.

Interplay Between Cell Growth And Cell Cycle In Plants.

The growth of organs and whole plants depends on both cell growth and cell-cycle progression, but the interaction between both processes is poorly understood. In plants, the balance between growth and cell-cycle progression requires coordinated regulation of four different processes: macromolecular synthesis (cytoplasmic growth), turgor-driven cell-wall extension, mitotic cycle, and endocycle. Potential feedbacks between these processes include a cell-size checkpoint operating before DNA synthesis and a link between DNA contents and maximum cell size. In addition, key intercellular signals and growth regulatory genes appear to target at the same time cell-cycle and cell-growth functions. For example, auxin, gibberellin, and brassinosteroid all have parallel links to cell-cycle progression (through S-phase Cyclin D-CDK and the anaphase-promoting complex) and cell-wall functions (through cell-wall extensibility or microtubule dynamics). Another intercellular signal mediated by microtubule dynamics is the mechanical stress caused by growth of interconnected cells. Superimposed on developmental controls, sugar signalling through the TOR pathway has recently emerged as a central control point linking cytoplasmic growth, cell-cycle and cell-wall functions. Recent progress in quantitative imaging and computational modelling will facilitate analysis of the multiple interconnections between plant cell growth and cell cycle and ultimately will be required for the predictive manipulation of plant growth.

S-nitrosothiols Regulate Nitric Oxide Production And Storage In Plants Through The Nitrogen Assimilation Pathway.

Nitrogen assimilation plays a vital role in plant metabolism. Assimilation of nitrate, the primary source of nitrogen in soil, is linked to the generation of the redox signal nitric oxide (NO). An important mechanism by which NO regulates plant development and stress responses is through S-nitrosylation, that is, covalent attachment of NO to cysteine residues to form S-nitrosothiols (SNO). Despite the importance of nitrogen assimilation and NO signalling, it remains largely unknown how these pathways are interconnected. Here we show that SNO signalling suppresses both nitrate uptake and reduction by transporters and reductases, respectively, to fine tune nitrate homeostasis. Moreover, NO derived from nitrate assimilation suppresses the redox enzyme S-nitrosoglutathione Reductase 1 (GSNOR1) by S-nitrosylation, preventing scavenging of S-nitrosoglutathione, a major cellular bio-reservoir of NO. Hence, our data demonstrates that (S)NO controls its own generation and scavenging by modulating nitrate assimilation and GSNOR1 activity.

Contrasting Effects Of Land Use Intensity And Exotic Host Plants On The Specialization Of Interactions In Plant-herbivore Networks.

Human land use tends to decrease the diversity of native plant species and facilitate the invasion and establishment of exotic ones. Such changes in land use and plant community composition usually have negative impacts on the assemblages of native herbivorous insects. Highly specialized herbivores are expected to be especially sensitive to land use intensification and the presence of exotic plant species because they are neither capable of consuming alternative plant species of the native flora nor exotic plant species. Therefore, higher levels of land use intensity might reduce the proportion of highly specialized herbivores, which ultimately would lead to changes in the specialization of interactions in plant-herbivore networks. This study investigates the community-wide effects of land use intensity on the degree of specialization of 72 plant-herbivore networks, including effects mediated by the increase in the proportion of exotic plant species. Contrary to our expectation, the net effect of land use intensity on network specialization was positive. However, this positive effect of land use intensity was partially canceled by an opposite effect of the proportion of exotic plant species on network specialization. When we analyzed networks composed exclusively of endophagous herbivores separately from those composed exclusively of exophagous herbivores, we found that only endophages showed a consistent change in network specialization at higher land use levels. Altogether, these results indicate that land use intensity is an important ecological driver of network specialization, by way of reducing the local host range of herbivore guilds with highly specialized feeding habits. However, because the effect of land use intensity is offset by an opposite effect owing to the proportion of exotic host species, the net effect of land use in a given herbivore assemblage will likely depend on the extent of the replacement of native host species with exotic ones.

In Vitro Biological Screening Of The Anticholinesterase And Antiproliferative Activities Of Medicinal Plants Belonging To Annonaceae.

The aim of this research was to investigate the antiproliferative and anticholinesterase activities of 11 extracts from 5 Annonaceae species in vitro. Antiproliferative activity was assessed using 10 human cancer cell lines. Thin-layer chromatography and a microplate assay were used to screen the extracts for acetylcholinesterase (AchE) inhibitors using Ellman's reagent. The chemical compositions of the active extracts were investigated using high performance liquid chromatography. Eleven extracts obtained from five Annonaceae plant species were active and were particularly effective against the UA251, NCI-470 lung, HT-29, NCI/ADR, and K-562 cell lines with growth inhibition (GI50) values of 0.04-0.06, 0.02-0.50, 0.01-0.12, 0.10-0.27, and 0.02-0.04 µg/mL, respectively. In addition, the Annona crassiflora and A. coriacea seed extracts were the most active among the tested extracts and the most effective against the tumor cell lines, with GI50 values below 8.90 µg/mL. The A. cacans extract displayed the lowest activity. Based on the microplate assay, the percent AchE inhibition of the extracts ranged from 12 to 52%, and the A. coriacea seed extract resulted in the greatest inhibition (52%). Caffeic acid, sinapic acid, and rutin were present at higher concentrations in the A. crassiflora seed samples. The A. coriacea seeds contained ferulic and sinapic acid. Overall, the results indicated that A. crassiflora and A. coriacea extracts have antiproliferative and anticholinesterase properties, which opens up new possibilities for alternative pharmacotherapy drugs.