Energy use, indoor temperature and possible adaptation strategies for air-conditioned office buildings in face of global warming

This paper discusses and summarises a recent systematic study on the implication of global warming on air conditioned office buildings in Australia. Four areas are covered, including analysis of historical weather data, generation of future weather data for the impact study of global warming, projection of building performance under various global warming scenarios, and evaluation of various adaptation strategies under 2070 high global warming conditions. Overall, it is found that depending on the assumed future climate scenarios and the location considered, the increase of total building energy use for the sample Australian office building may range from 0.4 to 15.1%. When the increase of annual average outdoor temperature exceeds 2 °C, the risk of overheating will increase significantly. However, the potential overheating problem could be completely eliminated if internal load density is significantly reduced.

Global Warming : Impact on Building Design and Performance

Global warming is entailing new climatic conditions for the built environment. Such a warming climate will affect both the performance of existing building stock and the design of new buildings. In this article, the knowledge of global warming and climate change is first introduced. The cycling interaction between global warming and buildings is then presented. The impact of global warming on building energy use and thermal performance is also assessed. Finally, the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to the global warming are discussed.

Impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing air conditioned office buildings, which are typically designed based on current weather data, may also change. Through building computer simulations, this paper evaluates the impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use and CO2 emission of Australian office buildings. It is found that the existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. If the energy source is assumed to be the electricity, it is found that in comparison with current weather scenario, the increased energy uses would translate into the increase of CO2 emissions by 0 to 34.6 kg CO2 equivalent/m2, varying with different future weather scenarios and with different locations.

An investigation of building physical properties selection to combat global warming

Global warming can have a significant impact on building energy performance and indoor thermal environment, as well as the health and productivity of people living and working inside them. Through the building simulation technique, this paper investigates the adaptation potential of different selections of building physical properties to increased outdoor temperature in Australia. It is found that overall, an office building with lower insulation level, smaller window to wall ratio and/or a glass type with lower shading coefficient, and lower internal load density will have the effect of lowering building cooling load and total energy use, and therefore have a better potential to adapt to the warming external climate. Compared with clear glass, it is shown that the use of reflective glass for the sample building with WWR being 0.5 reduces the building cooling load by more than 12%. A lower internal load can also have a significant impact on the reduction of building cooling load, as well as the building energy use. Through the comparison of results between current and future weather scenarios, it is found that the patterns found in the current weather scenario also exist in the future weather scenarios, but to a smaller extent.

Sensitivity of office building zones to global warming

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing buildings, which were designed based on current weather data, may become unclear and remain a great concern. Through building computer simulation, this paper investigates the sensitivity of different office building zoning to the potential global warming. From the sample office building examined, it is found that compared with the middle and top floors, the ground floor for most cities appears to be most sensitive to the effect of global warming and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. From the analysis of the responses of different zone orientations to the outdoor air temperature increase, it is also found that there are widely different responses between different zone orientations, with South or Core zone being most sensitive. With an increased external air temperature, the difference between different floors or different zone orientations will become more significant.

Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

Individuals' (re-)action in the face of global warming

Climate change remains a major challenge for today’s and future societies due to its immense impacts on human lives and the natural environment. This thesis investigates the extent to which individuals are willing and prepared to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adjust to new climatic conditions in order to cope with the consequences of climate change and reduce the severity of potential negative impacts. The thesis thereby combines research in the fields of the private provision of environmental public goods and adaptation to climate change, which is still widely unconnected in the existing literature. The six contributions of this thesis mainly focus on microeconometric analyses using data from international surveys in China, Germany, and the USA. The main findings are: (i) A substantial share of individuals is willing to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adapt to climatic change. The engagement in both strategies is positively interrelated at the individual level and the analyses reveal hardly any evidence that adaptation activities crowd out individuals’ incentives to engage in climate protection. (ii) The main determinants of individuals’ adaptation activities seem to be the subjective risk perception as well as socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics like age, gender, education, and income, while their climate protection efforts are found to be broadly motivated by financial advantages from these activities and additional immaterial benefits. (iii) The empirical findings also suggest a significantly positive relationship between certain climate protection activities. Substitutions are found to occur merely if one measure is perceived to be more effective in providing climate protection or if individuals have high environmental preferences. (iv) This thesis further reveals a common understanding of a (normatively) fair burden-sharing in international climate policy across citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The highest preferences are found for the accountability principle.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

Effects of Global Warming on Berry Composition of cv. Sangiovese: Biochemical and Molecular Aspects and Agronomical Adaptation Approaches

Wine grape must deal with serious problems due to the unfavorable climatic conditions resulted from global warming. High temperatures result in oxidative damages to grape vines. The excessive elevated temperatures are critical for grapevine productivity and survival and contribute to degradation of grape and wine quality and yield. Elevated temperature can negatively affect anthocyanin accumulation in red grape. Particularly, cv. Sangiovese was identified to be very sensitive to such condition. The quantitative real-time PCR analysis showed that flavonoid biosynthetic genes were slightly repressed by high temperature. Also, the heat stress repressed the expression of the transcription factor “VvMYBA1” that activates the expression of UFGT. Moreover, high temperatures had repressing effects on the activity of the flavonoids biosynthetic enzymes “PAL” and “UFGT”.Anthocyanin accumulation in berry skin is due to the balance between its synthesis and oxidation. In grape cv. Sangiovese, the gene transcription and activity of peroxidases enzyme was elevated by heat stress as a defensive mechanism of ROS-scavenging. Among many isoforms of peroxidases genes, one gene (POD 1) was induced in Sangiovese under thermal stress condition. This gene was isolated and evaluated via the technique of genes transformation from grape to Petunia. Reduction in anthocyanins concentration and higher enzymatic activity of peroxidase was observed in POD 1 transformed Petunia after heat shock compared to untrasformed control. Moreover, in wine producing regions, it is inevitable for the grape growers to adopt some adaptive strategies to alleviate grape damages to abiotic stresses. Therefore, in this thesis, the technique of post veraison trimming was done to improve the coupling of phenolic and sugar ripening in Vitis vinifera L. cultivar Sangiovese. Trimming after veraison showed to be executable to slow down the rate of sugar accumulation in grape (to decrease the alcohol potential in wines) without evolution of the main berry flavonoids compounds.

The early Eocene global warming events: Implications from ODP Leg 208 Walvis Ridge depth transect

Five sections drilled in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge (SE Atlantic) during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 208 resulted in the first complete early Paleogene deep-sea record. Here we present high-resolution stratigraphic records spanning a ~4.3 million yearlong interval of the late Paleocene to early Eocene. This interval includes the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as well as the Eocene thermal maximum (ETM) 2 event. A detailed chronology was developed with nondestructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records and shipboard color data. These records were used to refine the shipboard-derived spliced composite depth for each site and with a record from ODP Site 1051 were then used to establish a continuous time series over this interval. Extensive spectral analysis reveals that the early Paleogene sedimentary cyclicity is dominated by precession modulated by the short (100 kyr) and long (405 kyr) eccentricity cycles. Counting of precession-related cycles at multiple sites results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C24r and C25n. Direct comparison between the amplitude modulation of the precession component derived from XRF data and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity suggests that the onset of the PETM and ETM2 are related to a 100-kyr eccentricity maximum. Both events are approximately a quarter of a period offset from a maximum in the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle, with the major difference that the PETM is lagging and ETM2 is leading a 405-kyr eccentricity maximum. Absolute age estimates for the PETM, ETM2, and the magnetochron boundaries that are consistent with recalibrated radiometric ages and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity cannot be precisely determined at present because of too large uncertainties in these methods. Nevertheless, we provide two possible tuning options, which demonstrate the potential for the development of a cyclostratigraphic framework based on the stable 405-kyr eccentricity cycle for the entire Paleogene.

The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012

Date of Acceptance: 16/12/2014 Acknowledgements: This work was carried out with generous funding by the Governments of Germany (GCP/GLO/286/GER) and Norway (GCP/GLO/325/NOR) to the ‘Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potential from Agriculture’ Project of the FAO Climate, Energy and Tenure Division. P. Smith is a Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award holder, and his input contributes to the University of Aberdeen Environment and Food Security Theme and to Scotland's ClimateXChange. J. House was funded by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship. The FAO Statistics Division maintains the FAOSTAT Emissions database with regular program funds allocated through Strategic Objective 6. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As climate change will entail new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behaviour of air-conditioned office buildings may also change. Using building computer simulations, the impact of warmer weather is evaluated on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads and probable indoor temperature increases due to a possibly undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use. It is found that existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of year 2030 Low and High scenarios projections and the year 2070 Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities of Australia would suffer from overheating problems. For existing buildings designed for current climate conditions, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings designed for warmer scenarios, a 28-59% increase of cooling capacity under the 2070 High scenario would be required.

Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.